Shaun Alexander was given his release today, after 8 years in Seattle. The writing had been on the wall for some time, as the Seahawks went out and signed not one, but two free agent runners this offseason: T.J. Duckett and Julius Jones. Alexander has been synonymous with the Seahawks under Mike Holmgren’s tenure.

Over a 5-year period (2001-2005), Alexander enjoyed one of the most dominant statistical runs in NFL history:

• 1,653 rushes
• 7,504 rushing yards
• 4.54 YPR
• 87 rush TDs
• 183 receptions
• 1,346 receiving yards
• 11 receiving TDs
• 1,473 fantasy points
• 3 Pro Bowls
• 1 All Pro
• 1 NFL MVP

Unfortunately things haven’t been the same since Alexander’s MVP season. Over the last two years, he’s missed 9 regular season games, averaged just 3.6 yards per rush (after never falling below 4.0 in any season prior to 2006), and failed to break the 1,000-yard mark.

So what now? Alexander has expressed an eagerness to test the free agent market for the first time in his career; and there’s little question he’ll have suitors. With the NFL draft looming, expect teams to consider Alexander after they see how their drafts unfold this weekend.

Assessing his options:

1. Sign with a contender
2. Sign with a team desperate for RB help
3. Find a team that fits both criteria

Is Alexander willing to take a backseat or, at the very least, accept a role as part of a committee? Are there any teams that could be considered a) contenders AND b) could possibly use Alexander as their main runner? Let’s take a look at all the teams that finished 0.500 or better in 2007 as a starting point:

• New England Patriots (16-0) — L. Maroney
• Dallas Cowboys (13-3) — M. Barber
• Green Bay Packers (13-3) — R. Grant
• Indianapolis Colts (13-3) — J. Addai
• Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) — F. Taylor & M. Jones-Drew
• San Diego Chargers (11-5) — L. Tomlinson
• Cleveland Browns (10-6) — J. Lewis
• New York Giants (10-6) — B. Jacobs
• Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) — W. Parker
• Seattle Seahawks (10-6) — Not applicable for obvious reasons
• Tennessee Titans (10-6) — L. White
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) — E. Graham & W. Dunn
• Washington Redskins (9-7) — C. Portis
• Arizona Cardinals (8-8) — E. James
• Houston Texans (8-8) — A. Green & C. Brown
• Minnesota Vikings (8-8) — C. Taylor & A. Peterson
• Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) — B. Westbrook

Realistically, there are three teams out of this group where Alexander could be the main ball-carrier without upsetting the apple cart too much. Of course, in the NFL where parity abounds, there are a number of teams with losing records last year that could contend this season; particularly if they had a better ground game. Here are the bottom ten teams last year in rushing yards:

• Kansas City Chiefs (32nd) – Larry Johnson is under contract, was hurt last year
• Detroit Lions (31st) – Definitely in the market for a RB; will they draft one?
• Chicago Bears (30th) — Benson isn’t guaranteed anything
• Arizona Cardinals (29th) – James is under contract, would Alexander be any better?
• New Orleans Saints (28th) — Bush is there, and McAllister says he’ll be back this season
• San Francisco 49ers (27th) – Frank Gore should be healthy
• Atlanta Falcons (26th) — Signed Michael Turner to a monster deal
• St. Louis Rams (25th) – Steven Jackson is healthy
• Cincinnati Bengals (24th) — Need a runner, unless Rudi Johnson finds a fountain of youth

OK, so where does that leave us? Alexander is very likely going to have to accept a committee situation unless Chicago, Cincinnati or Detroit are willing to commit to him.

Where do YOU think Alexander will land?

For a team that supposedly had no leverage, the Cardinals come out looking pretty good today. Larry Fitzgerald, due $14.6mm in 2008, signed a new 4-year, $40mm contract today ending weeks of speculation that he would have to be traded in order for the Cardinals to field a 53-man roster.

According to reports, the deal includes:

• $40mm total value over 4 years
• $15mm signing bonus
• $2mm in 2008 salary
• $5mm option bonus before 2009 season
• $30mm in guarantees

Yes, that’s a monster deal so why do I think the Cardinals came out looking good, you ask? Because in the process, they lowered Fitz’ cap number to $7.6mm in 2008, freeing up almost $9mm in cap room to field a competitive roster. On top of that, the Cards lock up the best YOUNG receiver in the game. Fitz is only 24 years old (he’ll turn 25 in August), and is easily among the most productive receivers in the history of the NFL at that age.

Consider:

Most Receiving Yards, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receptions, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receiving TDs, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Arizona Cardinals

LB Karlos Dansby

The Cardinals have two free agent linebackers that are among the most compelling options in free agency: Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace. While Pace is talented and someone the Cardinals would like to have back, it’s Dansby that’s almost assuredly going to be tagged because he’s emerging as one of the preeminent defensive playmakers in the NFC.

     
St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a handful of free agents but none that warrant either the franchise or transition tag designation.

San Francisco 49ers

GM Scott McCloughan has gone on record saying the team has no intentions of using the franchise tag on any of its key free agents. The team has a few key free agents it would do well to retain (e.g., Isaac Sopaoga and Larry Allen) but neither are worth the kind of money a franchise designation would incur.

Seattle Seahawks

Option 1: PK Josh Brown

The Seahawks don’t want to lose their star place kicker and, as a result, may tag him again. Recall that Browns was the team’s franchise player last season, but the team was unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal. Given the modest differential between the top paid kickers and the middle-of-the-road alternatives, the Seahawks would be foolish to let Brown enter free agency; either they will sign him long-term over the next week or he’ll get tagged because…

Option 2: CB Marcus Trufant

The ‘hawks don’t want to be in the position of having to let Marcus Trufant hit the open market. Trufant is one of the best young corners in the league and, were he to hit free agency, could potentially garner the kind of monster offer Nate Clements received from San Francisco last season. Our bet is that Seattle comes to terms with Brown on a deal in the next few days, allowing them to tag Trufant.

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Brett Favre, Green Bay
• Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
• Tony Romo, Dallas

Snub Alert = NIL: Hard to make a case for any other NFC QBs. All three players have great stats and have guided their teams to division crowns. 

Running Backs (RB)

• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
• Marion Barber, Dallas
• Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia

Snub Alert = Clinton “Kid Bro Sweets” Portis: Brian Westbrook leads all NFL runners with 1,896 yards from scrimmage and Adrian Peterson is 3rd (behind LT) despite missing a few games; but the selection of Marion Barber (19th in yards from scrimmage, 11 TDs) over Clinton Portis (6th in yards/scrimmage, 8 TDs) is worth noting. Given the Cowboys’ success and Barber’s better yards per rush; I think it was the right choice but Portis could’ve justified a nod and I wouldn’t have questioned it.

Fullback (FB)

• Tony Richardson, Minnesota

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
• Terrell Owens, Dallas
• Torry Holt, St. Louis
• Donald Driver, Green Bay

Snub Alert = Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress & Greg Jennings: No disrespect to Torry Holt and Donald Driver, but neither deserved a Pro Bowl nod this year. Marques Colston was unquestionably snubbed (87 recs/1092 yards/9 TDs) while Burress and Jennings (10 TDs and 12 TDs, respectively) have both been more impactful than Driver this year.

Tight End (TE)

• Jason Witten, Dallas
• Chris Cooley, Washington

Snub Alert = NIL: Witten and Cooley have been, far and away, the two most deserving tight ends in the NFC all season.

Offensive Line

• Flozell Adams, Dallas (T)
• Walter Jones, Seattle (T)
• Chris Samuels, Washington (T)
• Leonard Davis, Dallas (G)
• Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota (G)
• Shawn Andrews, Philadelphia (G)
• Andre Gurode, Dallas (C)
• Matt Birk, Minnesota (C)

Snub Alert = Chad Clifton, Green Bay (T) and Chris Snee, New York (G): The offensive line selections are often joked about as being tenured (once you’re in, you’re in until you retire) and many of the same names appear predictably. I don’t have a ton of problems with the selections save for the omission of Chad Clifton, who has been the best lineman one of the NFC’s dominant offenses. Chris Snee, as much as it pains me to say, is more deserving this year than Big Cat Andrews, as well.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

It’s pretty stunning to think that an entire generation of young football fans have grown up without thinking of the 49ers as a championship caliber franchise. The team that has not one, but two Hall of Fame QBs through the 80s and much of the 90s, has struggled mightily in recent years; and now finds itself 2-8, having lost 8 straight games.

Today, 49ers owner Denise DeBartolo York promised sweeping changes in order to right the ship:

“I would consider anything,” DeBartolo York told the Chronicle. “I think that we have to get the minds together, the powers that be. I don’t think I can start to delve into the entire football operation right now. I would need the whole panel of people there.”

DeBartolo York told the Chronicle that the panel would include her husband and co-owner, John York; son Jed York; vice president of player personnel Scot McCloughan; vice president of football operations Lal Heneghan; and Nolan. DeBartolo York told the Chronicle that the head coach would no longer be the final authority on draft or player personnel decisions.

The last bolded statement is the doozy. A lot of people scratched their heads when the 49ers essentially gave control of the franchise to Mike Nolan; a guy that had never been an NFL head coach before. Now, it seems, the 49ers are FINALLY going to bring in a tried and true NFL mind to run football operations.

What that means is no one’s jobs are safe beyond 2008 at the latest. It would be stunning to think that a veteran GM would come aboard without assurances that he could hire his own head coach after a year of evaluating Nolan (if not immediately). And by the same token, QB Alex Smith will be in a make-or-break situation next season as the team will be in the financial position to consider a new direction.

Just how bad has it gotten in San Francisco? Consider:

• The offense is on pace for just 3,915 yards of total offense (32nd in the league); this would actually be the 2nd worst offensive performance of the decade
• The ONLY team to have a worse offensive season was…the 2005 49ers which put up a meager 3,879 yards
• The passing attack is averaging an anemic 4.9 yards per attempt; by far the worst of the decade
• The team is on pace for only 8 TD passes, which would only be “topped” by the 2006 Oakland Raiders (7 TD passes)
• The team is on pace for only 16 offensive TDs (passing and rushing), which again is only better than the 2006 Raiders over the last decade

While looking at some stats on Footballguys.com, there is a feature that has the matchup data for the last four weeks. This is a great tool for gauging which offenses or defenses are getting hot at the right time. One thing I noticed was that the Seahawks are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL pass defenses.

For the last three games (four weeks), the Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the following stats per game:

• 22 of 38 for 248 yards and NO touchdown passes, along with .3 interceptions a game. For this span, the defense also is averaging a fumble recovery and 2.7 sacks per game.

On the season, the Seahawks defense is only giving up an average of a scoring reception once every two games. That is impressive. The remaining schedule includes great fantasy opportunities against the Rams, Panthers, Ravens, and Falcons. The last three listed are great matchups against average quarterbacks.

It’s only Wednesday and today’s optimism can be tomorrow’s disappointment…BUT, for those fantasy owners who feel like they’ve been fielding a patchwork team the last few weeks due to devastating injuries and killer bye weeks, it APPEARS that good news may be upon us.

While this is all preliminary (keep checking Footballguys.com for real-time updates as we receive them)…the following key players are hopeful of returning to the field in Week 7:

• QB Marc Bulger (STL) is hopeful that he’ll be able to start this week after missing time with his rib injury. He was on the active roster last week and is feeling much better. He’s still not 100% but he should be good enough to play.
• RB Joseph Addai (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
• WR Anquan Boldin (ARI) is expected to return to the starting line up this week after missing time with a hip injury. He ran some before the game Sunday and felt like his old self. “It’s the first time I’ve been able to explode, run routes and things like that, he said. “It isn’t sore today (Monday) so we’ll test it again Wednesday and see how it is.”
• WR Javon Walker (DEN) returned to practice this week. He missed the past two games with fluid in his surgically repaired right knee. Walker said he may take it easy in practice this week, but there is no way he is going to miss Sunday’s game. “It’s crunch time,” he said. “I got to be out there.” Walker said the knee won’t be completely healthy until after the season when he can rest it. “I have to play through it,” he said. “I’m ready to go.”
• WR Andre Johnson (HOU) could return this week when they host Tennessee. A decision won’t be known until at least Wednesday. “He’s progressing well; (we’re) very, very hopeful that he’s ready to go this week,” HC Gary Kubiak said. “We’ll run him tomorrow. We liked the progress we saw last week, so we’ve just kind of got our fingers crossed that he’s ready to go this week.”
• WR Marvin Harrison (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
  
• TE Vernon Davis (SF) is expected to return to practice this week and has a chance to play this weekend. When coach Mike Nolan was asked about Davis’ status for this week, he said, “It’s questionable. We’ll see how they practice on Wednesday. I’m hopeful.”

This has been a crazy year for quarterbacks. Many have been injured, and out for the year while some have been just plain inefficient.

Let’s look at some of the journeymen passers that either started in Week Five or might start in Week Six:

• Trent Dilfer (SF) – The consummate game manager and fantasy quarterback least likely for success. If he enters your fantasy lineup, you are probably doomed for a loss.
• Gus Frerotte (STL) — The veteran from Tulsa has played with several teams and knows coach Linehan’s system. But, we would be fooling ourselves if we thought he was a healthy Bulger’s peer. He is a desperate start in week six.
• David Carr or Vinny Testaverde (CAR) — Pick your poison. Which is worse? I see a toss up. Maybe Vinny would be able to find Steve Smith. I know he is not a tall fellow, but Smith should be easy to find if Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter are the other options.
• Kurt Warner (ARI) – He has a great matchup this week. But, how many games do we really expect before Warner is injured? Enter Tim Rattay. You know, the guy who could not beat out Kerry Collins. Gulp. Hang on to your hats, Boldin and Fitzgerald owners, it might be a bumpy ride.
• Kelly Holcomb (MIN) — We all know Holcomb as the guy who could not beat out Craig Nall or A.J. Feeley. With the receivers the Vikings have, would you really want to start Holcomb? Me either.

This list does not even include the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, and Byron Leftwich. This has been a rough year for passers getting hurt. Look for some additional passers to be benched from here on out for the young guns. This is the time in the fantasy season where it gets ugly, real ugly, for fantasy quarterbacks during the bye week crunch. So, good luck to those of you starting one of the above quarterbacks … you just might need it. If these guys were rock bands, they would not even make the amusement park circuit.

There’s an old adage: if you have two quarterbacks, you have none.

Ken Whisenhunt was putting that theory to the test in the early 2007 season as he was regularly replacing young “starter” Matt Leinart with former MVP Kurt Warner in certain situations. No sooner does ESPN film a nice puff piece where Warner and Leinart tell the world how “happy” they are with the situation, than Leinart’s season is ended thanks to a broken collarbone.

That opens the door for Kurt Warner to, once again, try to recapture the magic he showed while slinging the ball all over God’s creation in St. Louis. Will he be up to the task? And should fantasy owners view Warner as a possible fantasy star?

Consider:

• When Warner has had time throw in his career, he’s among the most accurate quarterbacks in history
  • The Cardinals have only given up 5 sacks in five games
• Larry Fitzgerald (healthy) and Anquan Boldin (hopefully healthy soon) are as dominant a WR tandem as the NFC offers
• HC Ken Whisenhunt has a history of producing highly efficient passers

The Verdict:

You could do a lot worse than acquire Warner off the waiver wire if he’s available. In limited action so far this season, Warner has complete more than 60% of his passes, is averaging an excellent 8.4 yards per attempt and has 4 TDs to just 1 Interception. If the Cardinals can keep him protected (as they have through the first five weeks), Warner could easily be what Matt Leinart hasn’t been; a viable fantasy starter.

Week two of the NFL season saw many players integral to fantasy football nicked up …. with some worse than others.

This is by no means an exhaustive list but shows how widespread the injuries were for skill position players.

QBs:

• Marc Bulger hurt is knee and ribs in week two. He should be ok, but keep an eye on the situation. Make sure to pick Gus up if the news changes on the severity.
• Tarvaris Jackson injured his groin in a hard fought lss to the Detroit Lions. He was having a terrible game as it was. Brooks Bollinger is the backup.
• Steve McNair also has a groin injury. He missed Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. His replacement, Kyle Boller, player well. In fact, many in Baltimore think Boller might give the Ravens a better chance to go far in the playoffs.
• Chad Pennington hurt his ankle in week one against the New England Patriots. He tried to warm up on it but Kellen Clemens started in his stead and played admirably for his first career start. This could be a budding QB controversy.

RBs:

• Rookie Ahmad Bradshaw, who is primarily a kick returner at this time, hurt his elbow in the game against the Packers. Combine this with the Jacobs injury and the Giants are very thin at running back.
• Vernand Morency is still battling knee problems and could be out even longer.

WRs:

• Greg Jennings practiced all week in hopes of playing but his injured hammy could not go. Now, he will sit all week in practice and should be a dreaded game time decision.
• Andre Johnson sprained his PCL (knee) in the week two game. He has been playing so well that the MRI results will be very important.
• Patrick Crayton, playing instead of injured Terry Glenn, broke his finger in the game against the Dolphins. It looked nasty. He went back in the game but was held without a catch.
• Plaxico Burress re-injured his ankle in the week two game against the Packers. With the way Plax has been playing, this is a situation to monitor.
• Burress’ teammate, Steve Smith, fractured his shoulder blade. He should be back in around a month.
• Troy Williamson injured his hammy against the Lions.

D.J. Hackett was on many people’s radar as a potential breakout sleeper this year, but he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week One and looks to be out for a fair amount of time.

“(Hackett is) going to be down for awhile, but I can’t tell you how long,” Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren said. “Those things are very unpredictable. The basketball ankle, everybody by now knows the difference - can be a week or two. This typically with all the ligaments up higher on the shin a little bit, typically is longer - in some instances, can be very, very long. The doctors can’t even tell me right now. Fortunately, our depth at wide receiver is pretty good.”

Hackett’s absence presents an interesting dilemma because both Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson are available on waivers in many leagues.

First things first, Nate Burleson is going to “start” at split end. Burleson practiced at the split end position all preseason, and split time with Hackett many times. Bobby Engram will remain the team’s slot receiver.

But in Seattle’s case, “starting” may not equate to having the most fantasy value. Engram’s role as the slot receiver is misleading because Seattle utilizes 3-WR sets as much as any team in the league, if not more. Engram has a long history with Matt Hasselbeck and is a proven playmaker.

Looking at the Week One target data (sub required) doesn’t really shed much light on the situation:

In most weeks, you can be sure the team won’t target their fullback more than their wideouts, but it’s clear Hasselbeck is going to throw to whoever is open.

With Engram, you can pretty much pencil in 50 receptions and 600 yards if he remains healthy. In a PPR league, you could do worse than have him as your WR3 in bye week situations. In Burleson, you have a much higher upside but also a much lower downside. Is he capable of approximating his 1,000-yard form while in Minnesota? Time will tell.

For my money, Nate Burleson is the guy I would rather roster for the tail end of my roster. When you’re dealing with your 5th or 6th wideout, my personal preference is to swing for the fences. Engram may put up better full year numbers, but he’s not a guy I could see surprising us with a huge season; Burleson could in that offense.

Injuries are a part of the game. And yet, their impact never really gets easier to digest, does it? Week One was particularly brutal with injuries to myriad offensive linemen. Fantasy football scoring rules may not pay much attention to the offensive line, but we fantasy football owners know full well the importance of a great offensive line in keeping our fantasy stars healthy and productive.

Let’s run through this week’s offensive line woes and their potential impact on key fantasy players:

LT Orlando Pace (STL) out for the season

Orlando Pace has been the fixture of the Rams resurgence and is one of the few remaining pieces to their Super Bowl teams of the late 90s. While he may not be the league’s best tackle, he’s in the conversation year in, year out. Unfortunately he tore his labrum and rotator cuff in Week One and is done for the season. This marks the 2nd consecutive season season Pace’s year ended prematurely. HC Scott Linehan hasn’t decided on a course of action yet, but the most likely scenario involves moving RT Alex Barron to the left side and putting Adam Goldberg at RT.

Fantasy Impact:

• Last year, the Rams had Todd Steussie as a fallback plan, this year they don’t [Steussie is currently injured]
• QB Marc Bulger is now playing behind a fairly inexperienced line, and may face more pressure
• RB Steven Jackson won’t have his best offensive lineman opening holes for him
• TE Randy McMichael may be forced to stay in and block much more than fantasy owners hoped
• FB Brian Leonard will probably be on the field more, but may see less offensive touches

LT Jonathan Ogden (BAL) re-injures his toe

After sitting out the entire offseason and preseason schedule, Hall of Fame LT Jon Ogden was in the lineup for Week One only to pull himself from the game with toe pain; the same turf toe that’s bothered him going on nine months now. Ogden was replaced by Adam Terry at LT (moving over from RT) while rookie Marshall Yanda stepped into the RT spot.

Fantasy Impact:

• We don’t know the extent of Ogden’s injury yet, but it’s probably safe to assume he misses a game or two
• Although a healthy Ogden is an elite talent, the Ravens have prepared for his eventual retirement
• Supplemental draft choice Jared Gaither looked excellent playing LT during the preseason
• The Terry/Yanda swap also has potential
• QB Steve McNair isn’t as mobile as he used to be; the severity of Ogden’s turf toe will only be measured once we see how his replacement handles the pass rush
• RB Willis McGahee probably gets a minor downgrade, although I think Ravens fans would tell you that Ogden wasn’t being counted on 100% by the team anyway

RT Jon Jansen (WAS) dislocates ankle; lost for the season

RT Jon Jansen badly dislocated his ankle in Week One and is lost for the season; Jason LaConfora is reporting Jansen has been placed on injured reserve (IR).  Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped into the game and played sufficiently well in Jansen’s place. But according to team officials, it looks like veteran Todd Wade will assume the starting RT role from here on out, allowing rookie Heyer to learn the ropes and serve as the team’s emergency/swing tackle.

Fantasy Impact:

• Losing a tackle is never a good thing, but the Redskins are better off with Chris Samuels back from injury and Jansen out, if they had to be short one of them
• Wade struggled in his move to guard this preseason but is a natural and proven tackle; there won’t be as much falloff as some expect
• The addition of G Jason Kendall in early August plus a healthy Samuels should obfuscate some of the concern here
• Don’t downgrade the Redskins offensive players at this juncture

C Al Johnson (ARI) injures his knee; C Chucky Okobi signs as replacement

Al Johnson hurt his knee against the 49ers on Monday Night. Johnson had a solid preseason and was making all the line calls for a rebuilt Cardinals offensive line. While the severity of Johnson’s injury has yet to be formally announced, the team moved quickly to bring in veteran Chucky Okobi as his fill-in. Okobi was primarily a backup in Pittsburgh and played for Cardinals HC Ken Whisenhunt and AHC Russ Grimm.

Fantasy Impact:

• The Cardinals are “lucky” that Okobi was available; he knows the line calls inside and out and should start immediately
• Johnson is a good center, but he’s not a difference maker; and Okobi has experience on excellent, playoff-caliber lines

C Jeremy Newberry (OAK) injuries his hamstring; out “a few weeks”

Jeremy Newberry hurt his hamstring this week and is on record expecting to miss a “couple of weeks.” The team expects to start Jake Grove in his place.

Fantasy Impact:

• Grove has been a disappointment after being highly coveted out of college
• Grove lost the center competition to Newberry in a spirited camp battle
• Mild downgrade of LaMont Jordan
• Mild downgrade of Josh McCown

Agree/Disagree? Curious to hear your thoughts…

I told you that Charlie Frye simply had no place in Cleveland after Week One’s mid-game benching. The coaches simply couldn’t have put him back on the field and convinced his teammates it was the right move. That’s unfortunate for a young passer who many thought could be as good as some of the other MAC products in recent years (i.e., Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington).

Today, the Browns traded Charlie Frye to the Seattle Seahawks for a 6th round draft pick. Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer makes the point this move will allow Seneca Wallace to play more receiver; which may be the case although I’m not so sure I expect Wallace to give up his QB2 role so easily. From what we’ve seen of Wallace, he’s a better QB than Frye; and at a minimum it will take Frye some time to learn Mike Holmgren’s complicated offense.

Fantasy Relevance:

• QB Brady Quinn gets ever closer to taking over the helm in Cleveland
• QB Charlie Frye has the potential to rebuild confidence in a proven, pressure-free situation
• QB Derek Anderson probably gets a start (or two or three) until the Browns are willing to go with Quinn
• QB/WR Seneca Wallace should see more offensive snaps; perhaps filling the WR3/WR4 role depending on how long D.J. Hackett is out for [which would move up Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram]

With the release of Byron Leftwich from the Jacksonville Jaguars, many dynasty fantasy owners were left stunned and very unhappy. There are many teams rumored to be interested in Leftwich including: Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, as well as several others.

The savvy dynasty owner sees this as a perfect time to buy. The current Leftwich owner is left with the feeling that he was kicked in the teeth. There are no starting QB jobs open. At best, Leftwich owners are hoping for fantasy points at the end of this season, but most probably will have to wait until 2008.

Is Byron Leftwich worth a 2008 2nd round rookie pick? Most definitely, especially if you have a good team and the pick will be late in the round. Leftwich was a top fantasy passer last year, before injury, even with the less than stellar corps of pass receivers.

This may be the last time you can get Leftwich for this cheap of a price again.

Training camp is TOUGH. Veterans hate it, some guys actually retire in order to avoid it. But camp is also a ray of hope, a chance to chase your dream. For some guys, their roster spots are assured and camp is simply a grind on the way toward competing for a playoff berth. But for many, camp is about EARNING their roster spot. With 90+ people invited to training camps but only 53-man rosters to open the season, there are a ton of hard-working athletes who go through the entire grind of the preseason only to be given an unemployment notice.

The stress of being visited by the Turk has to be unimaginable if you’re one of those fringe roster guys. A late round rookie at a position with considerable depth…a wily veteran facing a new coach and a youth movement…a 3rd stringer TE or QB who tries to play so well that the coaches feel compelled to find a spot for him.

But for as stressful as cut down day is across the league, at least you know it’s coming. The guys I feel bad for are a different sort. I feel bad for the guys who MAKE the 53-man roster, only to be released a day or two later.

September 1st rolls around, you bucked the odds, beat the system and have found your place on the TEAM. And then, a day or two later you unexpectedly get called into the coaches office and you’re told they’re “going in a different direction.” OUCH.

So in recognition of the guys who DON’T see it coming, here are a few of this year’s victims:

• WR Reche Caldwell (formerly New England Patriots) — Caldwell was considered the odd man out this offseason. After all, the Patriots acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth and Kelley Washington. But Caldwell played well throughout camp and made the final 53-man roster. That is, until the team opted to bring Marcellus Rivers back as an extra tight end.
• RB Jason Snelling (formerly Atlanta Falcons) — Jason Snelling was rock solid throughout camp and got important minutes in place of the injured Warrick Dunn. But when Dunn returned Snelling continued to impress; and seemed to have earned his role as the 3rd tailback; making the 53-man roster. Unfortunately, Artose Pinner’s gain is his loss.
• RB Quincy Wilson (formerly Cincinnati Bengals) — Seemed like he had locked down the 3rd RB spot behind Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson, but apparently not.
• RB Rich Alexis (formerly St. Louis Rams) — Rich Alexis broke camp as the Rams 4th back. While he wasn’t likely to have contributed much on offense, he MADE IT. That is, until the Rams took notice of Antonio Pittman, the 4th round pick who was surprisingly cut by an uber-deep New Orleans squad.
• TE Ben Patrick (formerly Arizona Cardinals) — Ben Patrick was an uber-athletic prospect out of the University of Delaware who went to the Cardinals; a team desperate for TE help. Unfortunately, he was cut loose in favor of WR Jerheme Urban.

This is by no means an exhaustive list, just a sampling of some of the offensive players who thought their months of blood, sweat and tears had paid off; when in fact it really hadn’t.

Anquan Boldin appears to be focused on the 2007 season - and he feels that the rest of the Cardinals should be, too. He talked about his goals for the Cardinals in this article, by Kent Somers in the Arizona Republic on 9/1/07.

“I think it’s a critical year, period, not only for the fans but for ourselves, I think everything is in place now. We have the coaches that we wanted. I think we have the players in place… Everybody is tired of the Arizona Cardinals being looked down upon around the league.”

Teammate Matt Leinart added: “The expectations are higher, and we’ve placed them upon ourselves. But lip service is lip service. It doesn’t matter what we say; we’ve got to go out there and act upon it. That’s something we’re anxious to do and anxious to see how we are…The question is still out on us, obviously. If we play how we practice and we compete, I think we’re going to be a tough team, but until that happens, we’ll see what happens.”

When evaluating NFL players with an eye to their fantasy productivity, one of the factors that savvy owners include in their mental calculus is a player’s motivation level and attitude/work ethic. Certain players (LenDale White, for example) disappoint when considered by this criteria. From the sound of things, Boldin and Leinart have high morale and high expectations heading into the season - they have their “heads in the game”. Playing at an elite level in the NFL requires nothing less.

Though the Cardinals as a team are viewed with understandable skepticism by many NFL fans, fantasy owners shouldn’t let the malaise of seasons past cause them to undervalue the players on this offense - Leinart, Boldin and Fitzgerald appear primed for a huge season for their fantasy owners.

Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

There was a disturbing story by Bill Coats in the St. Louis Post Dispatch today on the status of Torry Holt’s surgically repaired cartilage in his right knee. The cartilage/joint simply hasn’t healed properly, and Holt continues to have issues with pain and swelling almost seven months after the surgery. He estimated that the knee is only 70-80% recovered as of Tuesday, 8/28, a week and a half before the beginning of regular season.

Holt commented at length about the injury: “It’s just one of those deals where I’m not recovering as quick as I used to. I have to get used to that and stay patient. … I don’t know if it’ll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play…”It feels good some days, and some days it doesn’t feel as good. I’m getting somewhat used to that and getting to the point where I can manage it pretty well.”

There is a lot to unpack in the statements Holt made, but here’s how I read what he said:

• Holt’s knee isn’t healed yet
• His knee probably won’t ever be 100% healthy again
• He is using pain management techniques to stay on the field
• The injury is flaring up unpredictably

I think the red flags all add up to a degenerative knee condition, folks. That means that eventually, chunks of torn cartilage and/or chips of bone from Holt’s knee joint will become what is termed “loose bodies”, and it is very likely that further surgery(ies) will have to be performed to keep the joint from locking up.

It was a similar set of circumstances that spelled the end of both Curtis Martin’s and Marshall Faulk’s careers (to name just 2 highly visible examples).

Does the above mean that Torry Holt’s NFL career is over? No, probably not. But it does mean that he’s a very risky proposition to play a full slate of games during 2007, and that he’s beginning to hit the down slope of his exemplary career.

Drafters Beware.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC West:

RISING

• Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (Rank: QB11) — Shoulder looks healthy
• Shaun Alexander, SEA (Rank: RB12) — Still not in my top 10, but looks healthy
• Brian Leonard, STL (Rank: RB51) — Catching passes, Scoring TDs = compelling handcuff
• D.J. Hackett, SEA (Rank: WR37) — I wasn’t quickly sold on him, but have slowly become a believer
• Taylor Jacobs, SF (Rank: WR89) — Named WR3 in San Fran
• Marcus Pollard, SEA (Rank: TE17) — Fountain of youth + Holmgren’s praise = decent late round TE2

FALLING

• Torry Holt, STL (Rank: WR7) — Was ranked WR2 but slow recovery of knee = concern
• Nate Burleson, SEA (Rank: WR71) — Probably last man on Earth who believed he could start this year
• Ashley Lelie, SF (Rank: WR108) — Taylor Jacobs now WR3 in SF, Lelie could be waived
• Leonard Pope, ARI (Rank: TE40) — Having trouble holding off Troy Bienemann, ’nuff said

*** Note: As you might gather, my expectations for the Cardinals offense have changed very little this preseason, whereas my expectations for the Seahawks have improved incrementally due largely evidence that Hass and Alexander are healthy

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?