Wow, sometimes I just don’t get it. The Minnesota Vikings acquire DE Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs and sign him to a new contract, and I see hosts of people on radio, TV and internet message boards saying that the Vikings OVERPAID. While I can see, on the surface, why some people may have that initial reaction, I frankly think it’s conventional thinking and, with just a little analysis, people will come to realize that this move was nothing short of a NO-BRAINER for the Vikings.

First, let’s get the terms of the trade out of the way:

Vikings Get:

• DE Jared Allen
• 6th round pick (6.21 — 187th overall)

Chiefs Get:

• 1st round pick (1.17 — 17th overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.10 — 73rd overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.19 — 82nd overall)
• 6th round pick (6.16 — 182nd overall)

In conjunction with the trade, the Vikings gave Allen a new 6-year contract worth up to $74mm with incentives. The deal includes $31mm in guarantees; and puts Allen among the league’s highest paid defenders.

For those who might not realize, the 2007 Minnesota Vikings were the first team in NFL history to lead the league in both rushing offense and defense yet miss the playoffs. This team isn’t in rebuilding mode, it’s a team that could easily compete for a top seed in the NFC playoffs, particularly with the retirement of Brett Favre; the NFC North is wide open for the Vikes’ taking.

For the naysayers, let me offer you not one but two perspectives on why this deal made a ton of sense for Minnesota:

Approach #1: The Peer Group Comparison

Let’s say you turned on Sportscenter and read that the Vikings acquired Julius Peppers from the Panthers instead. Better yet, let’s say they acquired Dwight Freeney for the same draft compensation from Indianapolis. How many NFL pundits and fans would be singing the Vikings praises then? Yet, here’s the thing…Jared Allen is AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER than either Peppers or Freeney.

• Julius Peppers — 28 years old, 90 games played, 56 sacks, 31 passes defensed, 288 tackles
• Dwight Freeney — 28 years old, 88 games played, 60 sacks, 11 passes defensed, 190 tackles
• Jared Allen — 26 years old, 61 games played, 43 sacks, 25 passes defense, 227 tackles

Allen is:

• Two years younger
• Healthier
• Averaged more sacks per game (0.70 vs. 0.68 & 0.62)
• Averaged more passes defensed per game (0.41 vs. 0.13 & 0.34)
• Averaged more tackles per game (3.72 vs. 2.16 & 3.20)

Approach #2: The Draft Value Chart Comparison

By now everyone knows that most NFL teams utilize a derivative of the same draft trade chart that was first popularized by Jimmy Johnson back in his Cowboys coaching days. This is the tried and true chart teams use to evaluate trading up or down on draft day. The chart assigns a point value to each pick and declines with each successive pick.

According to the most common version of the trade chart, the value of the picks KC received was:

• 17th = 950 points
• 73rd = 225 points
• 82nd = 180 points
• 182nd = 18.6 points
• TOTAL = 1,373.6 points

In order for most GMs to make this trade, they have to feel they’re getting back equivalent or better value. The value of the 6th round pick the Vikes acquired = 16.6 points, which means:

• 187th = 16.6 points
• DIFFERENTIAL = 1,357 points

In order for the deal to make sense, Jared Allen should be “worth” at least 1,357 points on the draft chart. According to the draft chart:

• 9th overall = 1,350 points
• 8th overall = 1,400 points

Does ANYONE want to argue that Jared Allen isn’t worth the 8th or 9th overall pick in this year’s draft? You’re getting a 26 year old proven ELITE defensive end. Frankly, if we’re being intellectually honest, Jared Allen would be the 1st overall pick WITHOUT QUESTION if he were draft eligible this year. He’s a proven commodity at an elite position. Yet, all the Vikings really need out of him is the value of the 8th or 9th pick in the draft.

Let’s not mince words. Barring injury, this deal was a LAYUP for the Vikings. Keep in mind what Jared Allen has accomplished and then consider who his defensive linemates were in Kansas City. Now, he gets to line up alongside Kevin and Pat Williams; the best 4-3 tackles in the NFC. The Vikes added the league’s best young defensive end to a defense that already led the league in rushing defense. Even if their pass offense continues to struggle this season, the combination of a stifling defense and the NFC’s top rushing offense should give them as easy a road to the playoffs as any team in the NFC.

Congrats to the Vikings fans; as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m jealous.

It’s hard to call yourself an NFL fan without acknowledging the omnipresent retirement talk surrounding Brett Favre the last few seasons. Whether it be a hasty press conference at a charity golf tournament to tell us he hasn’t decided yet, or the constant paralysis by analysis last offseason until he made it official; Favre has been toying with retirement for a few seasons now.

Ironically, it was THIS offseason when the chatter had died down some. Coming off a 13-3 season and an MVP-caliber performance (by far his best personal stats in years), most [myself included] assumed Favre would return in 2008 to make one more run at a Super Bowl title.

That’s what we all get for becoming complacent.

This morning, Brett “4″ Favre announced his retirement.

• Voice mail from Brett Favre to Chris Mortensen

Listening to that voice mail, you get the sense of what enormous pressure Favre put on himself to improve on 2007. And he’s right, anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would’ve been “less” than what they accomplished this year in many people’s minds.Today is a day to salute one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game.Favre’s Accomplishments

• Three time (3) MVP [the only 3-time MVP in league history]
• Seven (7) All Pro selections
• Nine (9) Pro Bowl selections
• 253 consecutive starts [something that will probably never be broken]
• 1st all-time, pass attempts (8,758)
• 1st all-time, pass completions (5,377)
• 1st all-time, passing yards (61,655)
• 1st all-time, passing TDs (442)
• 2 Super Bowl appearances
• 1 Super Bowl victory

It wouldn’t be right for a Footballguys tribute not to mention what a potent fantasy football player Favre was…

Favre’s Fantasy Accomplishments

Exhibit 1: Favre is the all-time leader among QBs in fantasy points scored (1960-Present)

Exhibit 2: Fantasy points per game (Min: 100 games played)

Exhibit 3: Consistency from start to finish

• Finished no worse than 13th among fantasy QBs for SIXTEEN (16) consecutive years
• Finished among the top 10 fantasy QB a record FOURTEEN (14) seasons
• Finished among the top 8 a record TWELVE (12) seasons
• Seven (7) top-5 finishes
• Five (5) top-2 finishes
• Three (3) CONSECUTIVE #1 fantasy rankings

Nothing makes a fantasy player happier than a gunslinger who piles on the yards. Favre was one of the best, let’s never forget that.

Before the start of free agency, Bernard Berrian indicated he wanted a contract similar to the 6-year, $36mm deal Deion Branch received from the Seattle Seahawks a season ago. While few questioned whether Berrian was a coveted free agent (he’s the #2 WR on most boards, behind Randy Moss), a lot of folks questioned whether Berrian would and should be paid as one of the elite at the position.

As I’ve been saying for weeks now, the market dictates the price as much as the talent does. We’ve seen free agents land monster deals at every position, and it’s more about the rising salary cap (estimated $116mm) and team’s projected cap room (more than at any point in league history) than it is about saying these free agents are the best in the league.

Regardless of whether you think Berrian is worth top-10 money, he stood a very good chance at landing that kind of contract this offseason.

And so he has…The Minnesota Vikings have signed Berrian to a 6-year, $42mm deal with $16mm guaranteed. That may seem like big coin for a guy that’s never had 1,000-yard season, but the Vikings are hoping Berrian is on the cusp of greatness and will leverage his deep speed to take the pressure off QB Tarvaris Jackson as well as the two-headed running attack of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

How much will Berrian help the Vikings passing attack?

Without looking up the stats, I bet a lot of you would assume the Bears passing attack was almost as bad as the Vikings last year, right? Now go look at the stats:

• Passing Yards — 3,362 Bears vs. 2,745 Vikings
• Attempts — 569 Bears vs. 432 Vikings
• Completions — 327 Bears vs. 249 Vikings
• Completion Percentage — 57.5% Bears vs. 57.6% Vikings
• Yards per Attempt — 5.9 Bears vs. 6.4 Vikings
• Passing TDs — 18 Bears vs. 12 Vikings
• TDs conversion percentage — 3.2% Bears vs. 2.7% Vikings

If these numbers look ugly, they are. But that’s not the key takeaway. The key takeaway is that the Vikings numbers make the Bears look like the Greatest Show on Turf. For all of the Bears ineptitude and the dissatisfaction with the three headed QB monster of Griese/Orton/Grossman, they collectively were MORE productive than what Tarvaris Jackson and his backups produced in Minnesota.

As a group, the Vikings WRs converted 56.5% of their intended targets. That’s not very good, as you might expect. But here’s the bad news, Bernard Berrian has only converted 51.2% of his career targets. Let that sink in folks. For all of Berrian’s many talents, he’s managed to barely catch half of the targets thrown to him, yet is going to a team that had WORSE quarterbacking than what he enjoyed with the Bears.

But will this signing help Berrian or his fantasy owners?

Now, we know Berrian is a speedy receiver and, to his credit, he is coming off a career season (70 catches for 948 yards and 5 TDs). But is he an all around difference maker? Even if you argue his numbers were hurt by the QB situation in Chicago, how can anyone say his situation is MORE advantageous in Minnesota?

At least in Chicago, Berrian had the advantage of seeing a lot of targets because the Bears couldn’t run the ball. The Vikings have a phenomenal rushing attack and have no intentions of throwing the ball anywhere close to the 569 times the Bears did a year ago. So even if you assume Berrian can somehow improve upon his lackluster catch percentage in a new environment, it still seems unlikely he’ll see as many targets.

• In 2007, Berrian was targeted 127 times [22% of the Bears pass attempts]
• Berrian would’ve needed to have seen 30% of the Vikings attempts last year just to match his output
• Even if you assume the Vikings will throw a bit more in 2008, they aren’t going to dramatically shift the offensive balance given how superb their rushing attack is

Could Berrian put together a 1,000+ yard season  next year? Certainly, but a lot of things need to happen.

1. He needs to be more consistent catching short- and intermediate passes
2. The Vikings need to see DRAMATIC improvement from Tarvaris Jackson
3. The Vikings need to commit to a more balanced run/pass ratio [despite having a dominant rushing attack]

I think this is one of those signings that helps the Vikings a lot more than it helps fantasy football owners. Given Berrian’s contract and the fact he’s the clear #1 in Minnesota, I expect a lot of fantasy players will covet Berrian and draft him much too early in 2008. I won’t be one of them.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Chicago Bears

WR Bernard Berrian

The Bears probably aren’t going to use their tags; but there’s an outside chance the team tags WR Bernard Berrian. If not with the franchise tag, than possibly the transition tag. Berrian has developed into the team’s best receiver and, given his size and age, would be highly coveted if the Bears let him get into the open market.

Note: Some of you have asked why I didn’t include LB Lance Briggs as an option. Although Briggs is certainly worthy of the designation, the Bears agreed not to tag him this season after he agreed to sign his one-year tender last offseason.

Detroit Lions

The Lions are unlikely to use their tag designations this offseason.

Green Bay Packers

DT Corey Williams

Corey Williams is a long shot to be tagged, but he plays a coveted position and has proven himself a disruptive interior pass rusher (7 sacks in consecutive seasons). If the Packers don’t tag him, they stand an excellent chance of losing his services to a team willing to pay him premium money with an eye toward making him a full-time starter.

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Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are unlikely to use their designations this offseason; none of their potential free agents would justify the financial commitment.

Jerry Angelo was the architect of a Bears team that, just a season ago, went to the Super Bowl. Far be it for me to suggest Angelo doesn’t know how to do his job (I’ll leave that to the Bears beat writers); but Bears fans had to cringe when they read what Angelo had to say about the QB situation in the Chicago Tribune:

Dan Pompei: Would you be comfortable with the same three quarterbacks in camp next season?

Jerry Angelo: Yes. These three quarterbacks—I said this going into the season and I still say it—they give us the best situation at the position we’ve had since I’ve been here. All three of these quarterbacks have proven you can win with them. What we haven’t done is gotten it 100 percent stabilized in terms of who is the guy. We’d like to see all three back and determine from there who that guy is.

Dan Pompei: You have invested three years of development in Kyle Orton. We’ve seen many quarterbacks like him—David Garrard and Tony Romo for instance—emerge after similar beginnings. Is there a feeling that you owe it to the organization to give him a chance to start?

Jerry Angelo: It’s a good point. There have been a good number of players who have been picked on the second day of the draft, who, given time, have produced and become winning starters. I felt like the last two games of the season Kyle performed very well for us. Obviously Rex [Grossman] is still involved, but he’s an unrestricted free agent, and Brian [Griese]. But we certainly feel very good about Kyle.

OK, either Angelo is simply posturing JUST IN CASE the Bears have no luck securing help at the QB position, OR Bears fans are in for another LONG season in 2008. Assuming the Bears have better luck next year on the defensive side of the ball (there were a ton of injuries), and presuming they can add help at the RB position (not very hard if you draft well), the most glaring problem area remains at quarterback.

Rex Grossman is an unrestricted free agent, and it would be surprising to see Rex return to Chicago. I’m sure Grossman thinks he could benefit from a change of scenery and Chicago fans won’t miss him. Is there a veteran QB out there who makes sense? I know Bears fans were hoping Donovan McNabb would become available but that’s no longer in the cards. Chad Pennington also appears set to return to New York. At the very least, you have to think Angelo will draft a higher upside QB in April, with the idea that Orton or Griese can hold down the fort for a season.

The Ol’ Gunslinger — Brett Favre — wants to return for an 18th season…

“For the first time in three years, I haven’t thought this could be my last game,” Favre told the Biloxi Sun-Herald newspaper. “I would like to continue longer.”

My how quickly things can change in the NFL. A year ago at this time, most people assumed Brett Favre would either retire or limp back for one more season in order to break Dan Marino’s all-time records before exiting unceremoniously out the door. Now, after an MVP-like season that saw the Packers win 13 games (and counting), Favre seems ready to not only return in 2008, but to make another run at contention.

Want to know how things will get interesting? Let’s see if the Packers can win the Super Bowl this year. IF they were to win the SB, I could see Favre calling it a career; but otherwise, fantasy owners and NFL fans can expect him back slinging passes around with aplomb in 2008.

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Brett Favre, Green Bay
• Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
• Tony Romo, Dallas

Snub Alert = NIL: Hard to make a case for any other NFC QBs. All three players have great stats and have guided their teams to division crowns. 

Running Backs (RB)

• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
• Marion Barber, Dallas
• Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia

Snub Alert = Clinton “Kid Bro Sweets” Portis: Brian Westbrook leads all NFL runners with 1,896 yards from scrimmage and Adrian Peterson is 3rd (behind LT) despite missing a few games; but the selection of Marion Barber (19th in yards from scrimmage, 11 TDs) over Clinton Portis (6th in yards/scrimmage, 8 TDs) is worth noting. Given the Cowboys’ success and Barber’s better yards per rush; I think it was the right choice but Portis could’ve justified a nod and I wouldn’t have questioned it.

Fullback (FB)

• Tony Richardson, Minnesota

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
• Terrell Owens, Dallas
• Torry Holt, St. Louis
• Donald Driver, Green Bay

Snub Alert = Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress & Greg Jennings: No disrespect to Torry Holt and Donald Driver, but neither deserved a Pro Bowl nod this year. Marques Colston was unquestionably snubbed (87 recs/1092 yards/9 TDs) while Burress and Jennings (10 TDs and 12 TDs, respectively) have both been more impactful than Driver this year.

Tight End (TE)

• Jason Witten, Dallas
• Chris Cooley, Washington

Snub Alert = NIL: Witten and Cooley have been, far and away, the two most deserving tight ends in the NFC all season.

Offensive Line

• Flozell Adams, Dallas (T)
• Walter Jones, Seattle (T)
• Chris Samuels, Washington (T)
• Leonard Davis, Dallas (G)
• Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota (G)
• Shawn Andrews, Philadelphia (G)
• Andre Gurode, Dallas (C)
• Matt Birk, Minnesota (C)

Snub Alert = Chad Clifton, Green Bay (T) and Chris Snee, New York (G): The offensive line selections are often joked about as being tenured (once you’re in, you’re in until you retire) and many of the same names appear predictably. I don’t have a ton of problems with the selections save for the omission of Chad Clifton, who has been the best lineman one of the NFC’s dominant offenses. Chris Snee, as much as it pains me to say, is more deserving this year than Big Cat Andrews, as well.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

Big-time congratulations to Brett Favre who became the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards; and did so on a day when his team a) won the game and b) wrapped up a first round bye in this year’s playoffs.

A lot of people are stunned at the Packers 12-2 record but perhaps they should be even more surprised with the way Favre has returned to an MVP-like form after several years of declining productivity.

Here are a few of the records Brett Favre now possesses:

• 1st all-time passing attempts
• 1st all-time pass completions
• 1st all-time passing yards
• 1st all-time passing TDs
• 1st all-time interceptions thrown
• 1st all-time in wins
• 1st all-time NFL MVP awards
• 1st all-time in consecutive games played for a QB

Tonight we’re treated to a matchup of football titans. 10-1 Dallas hosts 10-1 Green Bay in a battle of the all-time best gunslinger against the young franchise QB most reminiscent of him. The Cowboys came into the season as one of the odds on favorites to win the NFC, but the Packers were considered an over-the-hill franchise that might have been better off letting Favre retire, and focusing on rebuilding.

It’s thinking like that which reminds us of the difference between fans pretending they run NFL franchises and ACTUALLY having to run one.

And while this matchup should be entertaining and full of fantasy football goodness; unfortunately a good chunk of the NFL-watching populous is going to have to wait for the highlights on SportsCenter. You see, tonight’s game will be broadcast on the NFL Network; which isn’t currently carried in a lot of places. This is the 2nd year of the NFL Network’s exclusive contract to carry Thursday night games in November and December; but it’s the first game that should actually ignite fans to complain to their cable providers about the lack of NFL Network access.

Fun times indeed.

But, as a DirecTV owner, I will be comfortably positioned in front of my TV ready to watch the best NFC game of the year.

For those playing at home, here is a tale of the tape:

Enjoy the game (or enjoy hearing about the game after the fact )

The gray-haired passer from Southern Miss is playing great. There are a few reasons for the improved play over last season. His receivers are upgraded and playing well. The Packers have four strong pass catchers: Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Koren Robinson, and James Jones. This receiving corps has made the big plays, and had fewer drops than in 2006. Plus, tight end Donald Lee has been a big surprise. Let’s examine what the aging superstar has done so far this season:

9 Games

Completed 238 of 354 for a completion percentage of 67%

2757 passing yards for 7.8 average yards per pass attempt

16 scoring throws as opposed to only 8 picks
To put these numbers into perspective, the 38 year old has only been under 70% completion percentage three games this season, which is incredible. He has only passed for less than 300 yards three times in 2007, and is averaging over 300 passing yards a game. Now, let’s look at his career averages (over a 250 game career) to see if the “old man” has lost a step after throwing his first pass in 1991:

Completion percentage: 61%

Average yards per attempt: 7.0

Passing yards per game: 241

Touchdown/Interception ratio: 1.5

Even though Brett Favre has had some great seasons as a Packer, his stats this season are much better than his career average in most every category. He is on pace to finish as the fifth best quarterback in standard scoring fantasy leagues. He has not finished the season with a better rank than fifth since the 1998 season where he finished second behind a 37 year old Steve Young.

Even at the age of 38, Brett Favre is on pace to break his career highs in the following categories:

Passing yards: on pace for 4,901 yards

Completion percentage: 67%

Average yards per pass attempt: 7.8

Brett Favre is giving Green Bay Packer fans, and the fans of the NFL, a season to remember. If number four does retire this offseason, he will go out with a bang. His Packers are 8-1 and in the thick of the chase for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

On a play that surprised no one that follows the Bears, quarterback Brian Griese was injured. His shoulder no less. How did it happen?

Well ……

The RB that is averaging a whopping 3.0 yards per carry, and who is telling anyone who will listen how it is not his fault, missed the block. Yes, you guessed it. Cedric Benson. The running back that is making another former Texas ball carrier look somewhat normal. Here is the story and what Offensive Coordinator, Ron Turner had to say:

Look out block: Brian Griese’s shoulder injury occurred when blitzing Raiders middle linebacker Kirk Morrison came unblocked to the quarterback.

“We didn’t block who we were supposed to block, and the Mike (middle) linebacker came right up the middle, and we let him go,” said Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner. “So we had a missed assignment there and turned the guy loose.”

The responsibility for picking up Morrison belonged to running back Cedric Benson.

“I don’t want to start pointing fingers at who’s supposed to do it,” Turner said. “We just didn’t pick him up. He should have been blocked, and we didn’t block him.”

Anyone else notice how quiet the former Longhorn has been since Sunday?

Many have never heard of Matt Moore. Is he a punter? Kicker? Who is Matt Moore? Well, Moore is the next in line to start at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers. Jake Delhomme has a surgically repaired passing arm. Vinny Testaverde has a bad achilles. David Carr is awful and suffered a concussion. The awful part outweighs any injury. So, in steps Matt Moore. When asked Coach Fox was asked if Moore was ready to play an entire game, he replied:

Fox replied: “It depends on how you define ready. He’s a guy who we thought stepped in on short notice yesterday and made a couple of good plays and one not so good.”

That is not a ringing endorsement at all. But, the one player who is happy to find David Carr not in the huddle is Steve Smith. Carr could not find the star receiver if they were the only two people in a room. The former first round pick was sacked seven times against the Titans in week nine. I guess Carr thought he was still a Texan.

Matt Moore is a rookie from Oregon State who was in camp with the Cowboys before being released. He looked good in preseason, but the Cowboys did not have room for him on the roster. The Panthers liked what they saw and claimed him off of waivers. The 6′3″, 202-pound passer is still very young. He is only 23 years old and may get a big start for the 4-4 Panthers. It is remarkable that the Panthers have a .500 record. If starting, Moore would get a good matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.

OK, a few weeks ago we pondered whether Adrian Peterson was on his way to the best rookie RB season in league history.

After this Sunday’s record-setting 296-yard game, it’s starting to look like we can remove the “rookie” modifier and simply ask, is Peterson going to have one of the best SEASONS ever?

• 8 games
• 158 rushes
• 1,036 yards
• 6.6 yards per rush
• 8 rushing TDs
• 12 receptions
• 206 yards receiving
• 1 receiving TD

Pro-rating that would yield:

• 316 rushes
• 2,072 yards
• 6.6 ypr
• 16 rushing TDs
• 24 receptions
• 412 yards receiving
• 2 receiving TDs

All-Time Single Season Rushing Yards

I’m feeling absolutely SUPER about my decision to trade AD a few weeks ago for Roy Williams, straight up. Hopefully you haven’t been as myopic and are riding “All Day” Peterson to a fantasy crown.

The Packers have defied the odds this year. They currently rank dead last in rushing (492 yards) yet have soared to a 6-1 record thanks to a resurgent Brett Favre and an opportunistic defense.

Entering the season, the Packers running attack was considered a potential weakness, but no one could’ve predicted the litany of injuries:

• Vernand Morency was expected to shoulder the load but a lingering knee injury kept him out until Week 4; and he’s since been a non-factor
• Brandon Jackson, a rookie that some thought could be the answer, struggled mightily in the first three games and then suffered a shin injury. He’s since been out or inactive
• DeShawn Wynn, another rookie (7th rounder) was the surprise hit of the group. He barreled for 50 yards and 2 TDs against the Giants in Week 2 and then had back-to-back solid efforts against Chicago and Washington in Weeks 5 and 6. Coming off the Week 7 bye, it looked like the Packers were ready to give Wynn a chance at the feature role. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder injury early in the game and is now done for the season.

So what now?

Enter Ryan Grant.  Grant, 6′1″, 218-pounds, was acquired late in the preseason from the Giants for a late round draft pick. Grant played at Notre Dame and was signed by the Giants as an undrafted free agent in 2005, spending most of his career on the Giants practice squad. As the Packers were scrambling for help at the position, Grant was considered an afterthought, a live body and little more.

But once Wynn went down on Monday night, Grant got his chance to shine. As I’m always fond of saying, the keys to fantasy success are Ability + Opportunity; and Grant made the most of his opportunity. He logged 22 carries for 104 yards against the Broncos, and caught 3 passes to boot.

Will Grant be the guy going forward?

It’s hard to project Grant for continued success; but he certainly will get at least one more week to prove the skeptics wrong.

“We always believed that he was a strong, one-cut runner, and I think he proved that tonight,” Packers personnel analyst John Schneider said. “He ran the ball hard, and he’s a tough guy who’s been waiting for an opportunity. He got his opportunity.”

“I think it’s safe to say Ryan Grant will be the starter when we got to Kansas City (on Sunday),” HC  Mike McCarthy said.

It’s that time of the year when any RB or WR that MIGHT contribute will be acquired on waivers. Grant should absolutely be worth a few of your free agent dollars this week; but don’t get too crazy. Remember, the Broncos run defense has been horrendous at stopping the run this year.

• 235 attempts allowed (28th in the NFL)
• 1,162 yards allowed (31st in the NFL)
• 4.94 yards per rush allowed (31st in the NFL)
• 6 rushing TDs allowed (22nd in the NFL)

It was only last year that the Chicago Bears were known as the most dominant defense in the NFL. Now, the 2-4 Bears look to be in trouble. In the last four games, they have given up at least 34 points. The only game they held their opponent to less was a win against the Packers 27-20. To get a perspective of how bad the once-vaunted Bear defense really is, take a look at these rankings versus the rest of the NFL:

Pass Defense:

Passing Yards: 27th

Yards Per Pass Attempt: 29th

Rush Defense:

Rush Attempts: 25th

Rush Yards: 28th

Rushing yards Per Carry: 26th

Rushing TDs: 29 th

Total Yardage Yielded: 30th

How did the Bears go from a 13-3 record and a defense in the top 11 in the NFL for all of the categories listed above to a defense in disrepair? The main reason is the mounting injuries. Bear starting defenders have missed a lot of game time in 2007. This is not an exhaustive list, but should give an indication of the valuable players who have missed time for the Bears this season:

Tommie Harris (knee), Nathan Vasher (groin), Adam Archuleta (hand), Lance Brings (hamstring), Darwin Walker (knee), Charles Tillman (ankle), Seth Payne (arm), Daniel Bazuin (knee), Mike Brown (knee), Dusty Dvoracek (knee), and Michael Okwo (shoulder).

Many of these players were starters and leaders of the Bear defense. Add Tank Johnson’s legal problems, with his subsequent release to the list, and now the Bears give up huge yardage on the ground. This defense looks like one on the decline. Many of the players listed above are ones that either are at the end of their career due to age or are incurred injury again in 2007 and it looks like rehab will be difficult to come back strong.

Very few people doubted Adrian Peterson’s talents coming out of Oklahoma, but some wondered if he would have a chance to put them fully on display as a rookie, since the Vikings already had a more-than-serviceable tailback in Chester Taylor. But injuries to Taylor and, more importantly, Peterson’s all-world talents have led to his emerging as one of the league’s best young playmakers right out of the gate.

In case you haven’t been paying close attention, Peterson ran for 224 yards on 20 carries yesterday in the Vikings 34-31 win over the Chicago Bears. Through five games, Peterson’s numbers are:

• 96 rushes
• 607 yards rushing
• 6.3 yards per rush
• 10 receptions
• 175 yards receiving
• 17.5 yards per reception
• 5 TDs

Peterson has 100+ yards rushing in four of his five games, and has plays of 73, 60, and 55 yards on the season.

Were Peterson to maintain this productivity through the end of the season, he would finish the year:

• 307 rushes
• 1,942 yards rushing
• 32 receptions
• 560 receiving yards
• 16 TDs

As you might expect, this would be a record-breaking season for a rookie NFL RB.

Rookie RB Seasons, Yards from Scrimmage (1960-Present)

But would it be the best fantasy season? Using standard FBG scoring it, just barely, WOULD BE…

Top Rookie RB Fantasy Seasons (1960-Present)

This has been a crazy year for quarterbacks. Many have been injured, and out for the year while some have been just plain inefficient.

Let’s look at some of the journeymen passers that either started in Week Five or might start in Week Six:

• Trent Dilfer (SF) – The consummate game manager and fantasy quarterback least likely for success. If he enters your fantasy lineup, you are probably doomed for a loss.
• Gus Frerotte (STL) — The veteran from Tulsa has played with several teams and knows coach Linehan’s system. But, we would be fooling ourselves if we thought he was a healthy Bulger’s peer. He is a desperate start in week six.
• David Carr or Vinny Testaverde (CAR) — Pick your poison. Which is worse? I see a toss up. Maybe Vinny would be able to find Steve Smith. I know he is not a tall fellow, but Smith should be easy to find if Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter are the other options.
• Kurt Warner (ARI) – He has a great matchup this week. But, how many games do we really expect before Warner is injured? Enter Tim Rattay. You know, the guy who could not beat out Kerry Collins. Gulp. Hang on to your hats, Boldin and Fitzgerald owners, it might be a bumpy ride.
• Kelly Holcomb (MIN) — We all know Holcomb as the guy who could not beat out Craig Nall or A.J. Feeley. With the receivers the Vikings have, would you really want to start Holcomb? Me either.

This list does not even include the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, and Byron Leftwich. This has been a rough year for passers getting hurt. Look for some additional passers to be benched from here on out for the young guns. This is the time in the fantasy season where it gets ugly, real ugly, for fantasy quarterbacks during the bye week crunch. So, good luck to those of you starting one of the above quarterbacks … you just might need it. If these guys were rock bands, they would not even make the amusement park circuit.

Unless you just got back from a 3-month deep sea fishing expedition (in which case, welcome back!), you know that Brett Favre broke Dan Marino’s all-time TD pass mark this weekend.

All-Time TD Pass Leaders

* = Active Player
Link: Pro-Football-Reference

How long will Favre hold the record?

Marino overtook Fran Tarkenton for the record in the middle of the 1995 season, and held the league’s TD title for slightly more than 11 seasons. Favre seems unlikely to hold the record as long, thanks to Peyton Manning.

At 31 years old, Manning is already 7th on the all-time list with 283 TD passes. His career average of 1.91 TD passes per game stands as the best in league history (among qualified passers) and well ahead of Favre’s 1.72 TD passes per game.

All-Time TD Passes per Game (Min: 100 games played)

Based on Manning’s cur