Asante Samuel, considered the top defensive free agent by most, wasted little time in finding a new home. Today he signed a 6-year, $57mm deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel has an astounding 16 interceptions in the last two seasons, excluding the game-changing picks he made in the playoffs, as well.

Why the Eagles made this move…

Inexplicably, more than a few Eagles fans (and radio hosts) wondered today why this was the Eagles big free agent move. Putting aside the absurdity of questioning the acquisition of the premiere free agent in this year’s crop, there is an extremely obvious reason why this move makes inordinate sense:

• 11 interceptions
• 19 takeaways

The Eagles were among the worst in the league last season at creating turnovers; and that kept a top 10 defense (statistically) from being a real difference maker. Samuel single-handedly changes that dynamic.

But what about Lito Sheppard?

Lito Sheppard is, in his own right, an excellent cornerback and unheralded for his importance to the Eagles defensive scheme. Unfortunately, Sheppard has missed 14 regular season games in the last three seasons and has a reputation for being a “slow healer.” He’s also expressed unhappiness about his contract status.

So is Lito going to be an Eagle in 2008?

There are two telling quotes from Andy Reid today that paint the picture:

1)  “We’re obviously trying to strengthen the defense,” Reid said. “Obviously, I think the cornerback position is very important. When you have an opportunity to get the best one in the business, then you need to look at that. I welcome him aboard, and I know [defensive coordinator] Jim Johnson has great plans for Asante.

2)  Head coach Andy Reid said Samuel will be his starting left cornerback for 2008. Beyond that, Reid said “we’ll work things out from there.”

Lito wants a bigger contract, and is now losing his spot to the league’s highest paid corner. Does that sound like Lito is in the Birds’ plans for 2008?

OK, so what are the Eagles going to do with Lito?

Expect the Eagles to aggressively pursue a trade opportunity. Sheppard is a Pro Bowl corner and signed through 2011; so he’s got immense trade value. Several teams have already expressed an interest in him. What can the Eagles expect back in return? That’s entirely dependent on the team in question. Sheppard could be packaged with one or two of the Eagles draft picks for an upgrade at receiver (think Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgerald) OR he could be swapped for a pass rusher like Jared Allen. Is either move likely? NO, of course not. But possible? Certainly so.

The premier free agent offensive tackle is off the market, as Flozell Adams has re-signed with the Dallas Cowboys for a reported 6-year, $42 million deal with $15mm in guarantees. Adams has been a Pro Bowler in four of the last five seasons and anchors an offensive line that helped the Cowboys field one of the most explosive (and balanced) offenses in the league. Adams was a candidate for the Cowboys franchise tag, but they opted to tag safety Ken Hamlin instead. They obviously bet that Adams would give them first dibs at signing him; and the Cowboys gamble was rewarded.

With Jordan Gross (Carolina) and Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati) franchised and now Adams signed; there are really no top caliber options in free agency for teams needing tackle help.

So who benefits from this deal?

• Adams — the man gets his $$$$
• The Cowboys — they keep their best offensive lineman intact
• Maurice Williams, Wayne Gandy, Fred Miller and the other free agent tackles — Supply and demand at play
• Jake Long — the pre-eminent college tackle should now be assured of a top 5 position in April

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Last month, Donovan McNabb made a plea for management to bring in more playmakers, citing the team’s 8-8 record and 4th place division finish:

Now that the season is over and we are concentrating on 2008, I hope we are able to secure some playmakers in all three phases of the game. Maybe some of those playmakers are already on the roster but have struggled with injuries, myself included, that have held us back a little.

You can’t argue with how the Patriots went outside their locker room and stocked up on playmakers last year. It certainly helped to have Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and Adalius Thomas making plays for them all year.

I’m surprised that anyone would have a problem with me, or anyone else in the organization, expressing a desire to bring in more quality players. We were 8-8. There is room for improvement. This is a competitive sport. It’s about putting together the best players, the best team, and giving yourself the best chance to win.

OK, as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m not going to pretend to be unbiased on this matter. On the surface, it’s hard to argue with McNabb’s statement. After all, the Eagles lacked impact playmakers on both sides of the ball. The team ranked poorly in big plays on offense, and didn’t force enough turnovers on defense. Certainly, all things being equal, I would like to see Philadelphia make some bold offseason maneuvers.

BUT…has McNabb looked in the mirror? Dos the buck stop with “5″? Rather than simply accept the perception that Philadelphia has a lack of playmakers on offense, I thought it might be worth putting some numbers together to see if the stats bear out McNabb’s contentions.

Yards After the Catch (YAC)

The ability of a receiver to generate yards after the catch is essential; particularly in a West Coast offense. To that end, the Eagles’ as a team generated 2,147 yards after the catch last season. That was the THIRD BEST TOTAL IN THE LEAGUE. In other words, McNabb’s receivers did a lot on their own once he got the ball into their hands. But that number (2,147 yards) doesn’t tell the whole story. Let’s look at what percentage of each team’s receiving yards came after the catch:

As you can see, the Eagles pass catchers generated nearly THREE FIFTHS of the team’s yards AFTER THE CATCH. Thinking of this another way, Donovan McNabb and the other Eagles’ QBs just didn’t get the ball downfield with regularity. So I ask, is it the receivers or McNabb that needs to improve?

Dropped Passes

Another key metric is dropped passes. Nothing is more frustrating for a QB than to put the ball where it needs to be only to have a receiver drop the ball. So have the Eagles been a victim of the drops?

On this front it seems McNabb may have a better argument. The Eagles receivers dropped 6.4% of the team’s attempts; among the worst in the league.

So what’s the verdict? The Eagles, like many teams, could always use more offensive playmakers. But this perception that Philly’s receiving corps is among the least impressive in the league simply isn’t accurate. Could it be better? Certainly. But a lot of the blame for the team’s lack of explosiveness in the passing game falls at the feet of McNabb and his backups.

I won’t blame you if you missed the news today that PK Lawrence Tynes is close to a new 5-year contract with the New York Giants, according the Newark Star-Ledger:

There’s no quit in Ernie Palladino. After busting his hump while covering a Super Bowl run, he comes out of the gate on the following Monday to report the Giants have agreed to terms with K Lawrence Tynes, the NFC Championship game hero, on a new five-year, $7-million deal. Tynes, 29, acquired from the Chiefs in a trade last May, is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month.

Seeing this news, I have to wonder whether the giddiness over the Super Bowl victory has Giants management overvaluing Tynes’ services. I mean, this is the same kicker who seemed destined to be THE goat of the playoffs when he missed not one, but two  field goals against the Packers (before kicking the game winner later in overtime). This is the same kicker who ranked just 19th in PK points this season, missed TWO extra points, and was run out of Kansas City just a season ago.

Tynes is a career 79.8% field goal kicker and his 85% in 2007 ranked a meager 18th in the league. Yep…sounds like just the kind of guy the Giants should be racing to lock up long-term.

A few weeks ago, shortly after Joe Gibbs announced he wouldn’t return to coach the Redskins; it was widely believed that either Al Saunders or Gregg Williams would succeed him as the team’s head coach. Then, both were unceremoniously fired and Jim Zorn and Greg Blache were named OC and DC, respectively; despite the team having yet to hire a head coach.

Zorn, who spent the bulk of this decade coaching Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle as the QB coach, was a surprise hire as OC; but one that is well versed in a variety of offensive styles. Blache, who was one of Williams’ defensive assistants, was less surprising since he was already on staff and had experience as a coordinator in Chicago.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been left to wonder who Daniel Snyder would hire as head coach; with a ready made set of assistants in place. Jim Fassel was “the guy” according to a lot of pundits [who I’m increasingly starting to think have no real edge in their sources]; while names like Steve Mariucci, Steve Spagnuolo and Ron Meeks were bandied about.

And now, after much speculation and fanfare…the Redskins have hired their head coach.

JIM ZORN.

Yes, leave it to Daniel Snyder to poach his own freshly hired coordinator for a job on the same staff. While official contract details haven’t been released, several sources say Zorn has signed a 5-year, $15mm deal to replace Joe Gibbs. To say this move is surprising would be an understatement. Zorn has never called plays in the NFL and now will be responsible for replacing a Hall of Fame head coach.

But just because the hire is unconventional; doesn’t mean it was ill conceived. Personally, I think the Redskins are far better off giving a young up-and-comer like Zorn a try than a retread like Jim Fassel who has modest success in New York and was a complete washout as OC in Baltimore. While many will harp on Zorn’s lack of experience (he’s never been a coordinator), let’s not forget that Snyder has watched the Andy Reid-led Philadelphia Eagles dominate the NFC East for the better part of the new millennium. For those with short memories, recall that Reid - like Zorn - was hired as a head coach after serving as a QB coach. Reid - like Zorn - had no NFL coordinator experience. Reid - like Zorn - honed his craft at the side of Mike Holmgren.

Ultimately whether Jim Zorn is successful in Washington; it won’t be because he never called plays or ran a franchise before this hire. I say kudos on the bold move; the Skins face daunting competition from arguably the toughest division opponents in the league. A “safe” hire would’ve been the easy, but wrong move to make.

Dallas Cowboys

Option 1: OT Flozell Adams

Flozell Adams is an unrestricted free agent and could garner a tag if the team feels his services are indispensable. Adams is a 4-time Pro Bowler and played at an extremely high level in 2007. But at 32 years old (he’ll be 33 in May), he’s not someone that is really in line to get a long-term deal. If he’s unwilling to accept a 3-year deal; the team may have no choice but to tag him.

Option 2: S Ken Hamlin

Ken Hamlin is the best safety available in free agency and helped solidify a former weak spot this year. Franchising a safety is less of an economic burden than tackle; but it’s arguably easier to replace a safety via the draft than it is to find another offensive book end.

New York Giants

The Giants are unlikely to use the tag designations this offseason. Their only major free agents (Gibril Wilson, Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell) are worthy of contract extensions but it would be difficult to justify paying any of them money that equates to the best at their respective positions.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE L.J. Smith

The Eagles have assigned the franchise tag designation to L.J. Smith; guaranteeing him $4.5mm this season (if he signs the tender). Although Smith was injured for much of the 2007 season, tagging him makes imminent sense given the lack of attractive alternatives in free agency. The Eagles get a chance to evaluate Smith before deciding whether to extend him long-term, and in turn Smith gets top 5 money despite a disappointing 2007 season. A win/win.

Washington Redskins

Much like the Giants, it’s unlikely the Redskins will use their tag designations this offseason. The Redskins have no marquee free agents that would justify the financial commitment, and happen to be the only team projected to be signficantly over the salary cap entering free agency.

The Giants are heading to the Super Bowl, earning a rematch against the undefeated Patriots. No matter where your personal allegiances lie, you have to give the Giants credit for a hard earned berth. They won three straight road games against three division champs. They beat the 1st and 2nd seeds, avenging three of their in-season losses in the process. Along the way, the Giants have won an NFL record 10 straight road games.

No one, even the most ardent Giants fan, would argue the Patriots are a heavy favorite. Vegas puts the game a -11 and, if history is any indication, the line tends to grow in the favorite’s direction as the game approaches.

Now that the matchup is set, the discussion has turned to just how big of an upset would it be if the Giants beat the Patriots in two weeks?

Before we attempt to answer that question, we need to recognize that it’s subjective. Not everyone agrees about the best team in history, the best QB in history or the best RB in history…so we can’t expect everyone to agree about the greatest Super Bowl upset in league history, either. That said, here are my thoughts on the matter:

The Point Spread Approach

Personally, I don’t think point spreads are the best arbiter of this kind of discussion; but a lot of people do put faith in the betting line. To that end, the Giants are currently 11-point underdogs. If the spread holds at 11 points, it wouldn’t come close to matching the New York Jets in Super Bowl III. Joe Namath’s team were 17-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. More recently, the New England Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and won outright. In fact, the Giants would be tied for 4th place in SB history, according to point spread:

• Super Bowl III: New York Jets (+18) over Baltimore Colts
• Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots (+14) over St. Louis Rams
• Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs (+12) over Minnesota Vikings
• Super Bowl XXXII: Denver Broncos (+11) over Green Bay Packers
• Super Bowl XLII???: New York Giants (+11) over New England Patriots
  

The Margin of Victory Approach

Margin of victory is an valuable tool in comparing teams. In a league where the average margin of victory is slightly more than a field goal, margin of victory helps illustrate the best teams; teams that can win handily; whether that be by virtue of an explosive offense or a stifling defense. As you might imagine, teams with a high margin of victory traditionally beat opponents with lower margins of victory; that’s basic math.

Key Talking Points:

• The 2007 New England Patriots set an NFL record for margin of victory (19.7 PPG)
• The 2007 New York Giants margin of victory (1.4 PPG) is the 3rd lowest in Super Bowl history
• 2/3rds of Super Bowl winners have had a better regular season margin of victory than their opponent
• 1/3rd (14 of 41) Super Bowl winners have had a smaller margin of victory than their opponent

Here is a list of the Super Bowl champions that had smaller margins of victory than their opponents:

As you can see, the Jets victory of the Colts stands atop this list, while (surprise, surprise), the Patriots victory over the Rams is a close second.

Now consider the implied differential if New York beat New England:

• New England Margin of Victory = 19.7 PPG
• New York Margin of Victory = 1.4 PPG
• Implied Differential = (18.3)
  

This would be the most surprising SB victory, BY MORE THAN A FACTOR OF 2X THE PREVIOUS RECORD.

The Winning Percentage Approach

A lot has been made about how we need to “throw the records out” once the playoffs begin. Yet, history shows us that’s really not logical. When push comes to shove, the team with the better regular season record USUALLY wins the Super Bowl; it’s that simple.

Key Talking Points:

• The New England Patriots, the first 16-0 team in history, obviously had a 1.000 winning percentage
• The New York Giants (10-6), had a 0.625 winning percentage
• 10 of 41 (24.3%) Super Bowl champs had a worse winning percentage than their opponent

Here is a list of Super Bowl champs that had worse winning percentages than their opponents:

Interestingly, the Packers’ victory over the Raiders in Super Bowl II tops this list [they ranked 3rd based on margin of victory differential], and those were followed by New England over the Rams [2nd in our margin analysis] and Namath’s Jets over the Colts [1st place in the margin analysis].

Now, consider what a Giants victory would imply:

• New England Patriots (16-0) = 1.000% winning percentage
• New York Giants (10-6) = 62.5% winning percentage
• Implied Differential = (-37.5%)
  

Thinking of this another way, no SB champ in HISTORY has beaten an opponent with more than 3.5 more wins in the regular season, yet were the Giants to win they would have done so finishing SIX GAMES BEHIND the Patriots in the standings.

CONCLUSION

It’s difficult if not impossible to compare eras. In this case, the earliest Super Bowls pitted two entirely different leagues against one another, and football historians would say, as a result, their regular season accomplishments weren’t apples to apples. Therefore, some will always contend that Joe Namath’s New York Jets victory of the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III was the greatest upset in professional football history. The most contemporary upset would be the Patriots victory over the Rams [which ironically started the Patriots dynastic run we’re now dissecting]. By any objective measure, a Giants victory against the Patriots this year would be right up there with those two upsets. To my mind, based on the differential in their respective finishes this season, it WOULD be THE biggest upset in Super Bowl history. But even if you disagree, it’s hard to argue it wouldn’t be AMONG the biggest upsets.

I’m all for the NFL owners openness to new coaching candidates. The idea that they’re no longer content to simply recycle the same old names over and over is refreshing, particularly in a year when there were only four head coaching vacancies (with Tony Dungy possibly providing a fifth).

But JOHN HARBAUGH?

Seriously?

For those who haven’t been paying attention to the Ravens coaching situation, they officially named John Harbaugh the team’s newest head coach, with a 4-year deal rumored to be in the $2mm per year range. Harbaugh was the Ravens backup plan after Jason Garrett turned down their offer earlier in the week.

I’m an Eagles season ticket holder and have to say I’m pretty stunned at this hire. Harbaugh was an Eagles assistant coach since 1998, and apparently his experience under Andy Reid; one of the most successful coaches of the decade, was a huge positive in the eyes of Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti. While I can understand the allure, I still have to wonder whether Harbaugh is ready for this challenge. Remember, the lion’s share of his NFL coaching resume was as a SPECIAL TEAMS coordinator. He was named the NFL Special Teams coach of the year in 2001; and frankly that reputation carried him over the last few seasons. As an Eagles fan, I can say with absolute certainty that the Eagles special teams has been anywhere from mediocre to downright terrible for years. It’s the one area where the team has needed massive improvement during most of the decade. This year, he took over as the secondary coach…but one has to wonder what kind of impact he really made. It’s a largely veteran secondary and the team continues to run the same system under long-time DC Jim Johnson.

To Ravens fans, I wish you luck. It wasn’t that long ago that people were lambasting the Eagles for hiring Andy Reid. At the time, Reid had never been an NFL coordinator and was best known as Brett Favre’s QB coach. The conventional wisdom was that Reid would be overmatched at the outset. Five NFC East titles later and we all know better. Maybe Harbaugh will be that next great coach who comes from an unconventional route. Or, as I suspect, this could end up being the head scratcher that so many of us think it is.

We knew it was inevitable, but today it became official. Tony Sparano is the Miami Dolphins new head coach. Most know that Sparano spent four seasons with Parcells in Dallas, but they may not be aware of his prior NFL stops.

• 1999-2000: Offensive Quality Control, Cleveland Browns

Sparano got his NFL start under Chris Palmer with the expansion Browns.  An offensive quality control coach is basically the low man on the totem pole, and their job is to basically do anything the head coach, OC and other assistants ask of them.

The Bad News: The Browns were an offensive abomination in both 1999 and 2000; ranking dead last in both yards and points. Sparano wasn’t witness to offensive genius in his first gig.

The Good News: Palmer, the Browns head coach, has long been a favorite of Parcells; and even though the Browns didn’t have a lot of success, there’s no doubt Parcells would trust a recommendation from Palmer when looking for coaches in Big D.

• 2001: Tight Ends Coach, Washington Redskins

Sparano landed on his feet with his first positional coaching job in 2001, under new Redskins head coach Marty Schottenheimer. Unfortunately, Schottenheimer’s run in D.C. was limited to one season and, as a result, Sparano would find himself looking for work yet again after the 2001 season.

The Bad News: Schottenheimer was “one and done” and the Redskins offense ranked just 28th in the league. The Redskins tight ends were a mixed bag, with Zeron Flemister leading the way with 18 catches, 196 yards and 2 TDs.

The Good News: Sparano got to see one of the league’s most successful coaches at work, and actually got high marks in terms of getting reasonably good production out of the collection of TEs.

• 2002: Tight Ends Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars

Sparano moves on to Jacksonville under Tom Coughlin. Again, he’s star crossed as the Jaguars fire Coughlin at season’s end and Jack Del Rio doesn’t choose to retain Sparano.

The Bad News: Coughlin gets bounced after the 2002 season, meaning Sparano is AGAIN looking for work. The Jaguars finish the season 6-10 and their offensive numbers fail to crack the top 20.

The Good News: The tight ends were a bright light in an otherwise moribund passing attack. Kyle Brady and Pete Mitchell combine for 68 receptions, 707 yards and 6 TDs. Putting those numbers in perspective, they represented 25% of the team’s receptions, 23% of the team’s receiving yards and 33% of the team’s passing TDs.

• 2003-2007: Tight Ends/Offensive Line/Assistant Head Coach, Dallas Cowboys

Bill Parcells hires Sparano in 2003, and his role expands over Parcells’ four-year tenure. He ends up as the team’s co-offensive coordinator, assistant head coach, and offensive line coach. His work was so impressive, that he remains in place under new head coach Wade Phillips in 2007. Although he doesn’t have play-calling input in 2007, his work on the offensive line is considered a key to the Cowboys 13-3 season.

The Bad News: Sparano’s role appears to take a back seat in 2007 after a rising star under Parcells. Jason Garrett comes in and asserts control of the play-calling; leaving Sparano to focus on the offensive line.

The Good News: Sparano wouldn’t have the Dolphins head coaching job if not for his work in Dallas. He clearly earned Parcells’ trust and respect, and managed to stay in Dallas despite a coaching change. The Cowboys offense grew from mediocrity to elite during his tenure, and the offensive line and running game were both bright spots.

It should come as no surprise that Tony Sparano is, by all accounts, on the verge of being named the Dolphins new head coach. According to several reports, GM Jeff Ireland took one of Wayne Huizenga’s private jets to Dallas today to pick up Sparano and make the hiring official after weeks of conjecture.

Sparano’s name surfaced almost immediately after Bill Parcells took over football operations. Sparano, who held the title of Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line in Dallas this year was a holdover from Parcells’ staff. In 2006, he was the co-coordinator with Todd Haley, and was heavily involved in the play-calling.

Whether this is a sound hire or not, time will tell. But its one that fits into the Parcells mold. Sparano is a tough guy by reputation, believes in a punishing ground attack and controlling the time of possession. And he certainly is a known commodity for both Parcells and the Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland.

Will he or won’t he?

As expected, the Baltimore Ravens have made Jason Garrett an offer to replace Brian Billick as head coach. And, equally as expected, Jerry Jones is trying desperately to get some time with Garrett to convince him to stay in Dallas. Wouldn’t we all like to be a fly on the wall right now?

From various and sundry sources, we’re hearing:

• Garrett’s wife came to Baltimore with him and has been touring the city and looking at real estate today
• Garrett has apparently presented a comprehensive list of assistant coaches, alleged to include Cam Cameron and Dom Capers
• Jerry Jones has promised to match any financial offer from Baltimore, but it’s unclear whether he is willing to promise Garrett the head coaching job in 2008
• Baltimore (understandably) wants an answer before he leaves the city

As I said yesterday, Dallas could be the fly in the ointment. But if Baltimore is insisting on Garrett’s decision before he leaves town, that removes a lot of Jones’ leverage. If Garrett genuinely has two former NFL head coaches lined up as his coordinators, I can’t imagine he will say NO unless Jerry Jones somehow promises him the head coaching job in 2008.

Joe Gibbs announced his retirement today; citing a desire to spend more time with his family. While the move is certainly understandable given Gibbs’ age, the stresses of coaching an NFL team, and the turmoil surrounding the Redskins’ season (most notably the death of Sean Taylor)…the move surprised many because the Skins are coming off a playoff season and owner Daniel Snyder allegedly had a 2-year extension on the table.

Now that the decision is final, the questions turn toward the future:

• Who will replace Gibbs at the helm?
• If DC Gregg Williams gets the job, will OC Al Saunders stick around?
• Likewise, if Saunders lands the top job, will Williams look for work elsewhere?

Those questions will be answered in due time, but today was a day for reflection. Specifically, was Joe Gibbs’ second tenure with the Redskins a success?  That’s a difficult question to answer, and contributors to our message board weighed in on all sides of the argument:

• 57.8% said “Yes”
• 42.2% said “No”

Redman  says it was clearly a success, but not one that necessarily showed up in the win column:

It’s a success that unfortunately is not fully reflected in the W/L column.

In 2003 this was a team that was reeling from an embarrassing coaching failure in Spurrier, that had frighteningly little talent on the roster, an owner with the reputation (at that time deserving) of meddling and not even knowing enough about football to know what he didn’t know, and no plan for the future. The morale was low and the culture of the team was defeatist. There was not a lot of team toughness.

Joe changed all of that. This roster is stocked with talent, and I’m not talking about fantasy football talent but real NFL talent that includes role players, special teams guys, etc.

Koya considers his tenure a mild success:

Successful? Yes. Mildly.

Mostly because when Gibbs stepped in, the Franchise was in disarray and looked as if it may fall of the NFL cliff of proud, winning franchises for a while. He righted the ship, brought them back to respectability and made the playoffs twice in four years.

Not an astounding success, but more success than failure considering where the franchise is today as compared with 4 years ago.

I disagreed because I think ultimately Joe Gibbs, Daniel Snyder and the Redskins players wouldn’t deem their accomplishments over the last 4 years as having met their own expectations:

I’m sorry, but a sub-.500 record in four seasons with one playoff win was NOT what Redskins fans, Daniel Snyder, Joe Gibbs and football pundits wanted to see. While it wasn’t an outright failure, bringing back the franchise’s hero out of retirement and having him shuffle off with zero division titles wasn’t “successful” IMHO. Just look at it from the perspective of his division:

In the four seasons:

• Philadelphia (37-27: 0.578), 2 Playoff Appearances, 2 Division Titles, 1 Super Bowl Appearance
• New York (35-29: 0.547), 3 Playoff Appearances, 0 Division Titles, 0 Super Bowl Appearances but still alive in ‘07
• Dallas (37-27: 0.578), 2 Playoff Appearances, 1 Division Title, 0 Super Bowl Appearances but 1 seed in ‘07
• Washington (30-34: 0.469), 2 Playoff Appearances, 0 Division Titles, 0 Super Bowl Appearances

What do you think? Was Joe Gibbs (inarguably one of the best coaches in NFL history) successful in his return? And does the Redskins performance over the next few years play a role in how we ultimately view Gibbs last four seasons?

Patrick Crayton signed a 4-year, $14mm contract extension that includes $6mm in guarantees. It’s curious timing for someone who would’ve been a free agent in a matter of a few months; but was likely a smart move for both sides. The Cowboys keep Crayton from the open market, where a number of suitors (Bill Parcells anyone?) would’ve looked hard at him as a full-time starter; and in turn Crayton gets a sizable contract despite the very real possibility of being the Cowboys WR3 next season.

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Brett Favre, Green Bay
• Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
• Tony Romo, Dallas

Snub Alert = NIL: Hard to make a case for any other NFC QBs. All three players have great stats and have guided their teams to division crowns. 

Running Backs (RB)

• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
• Marion Barber, Dallas
• Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia

Snub Alert = Clinton “Kid Bro Sweets” Portis: Brian Westbrook leads all NFL runners with 1,896 yards from scrimmage and Adrian Peterson is 3rd (behind LT) despite missing a few games; but the selection of Marion Barber (19th in yards from scrimmage, 11 TDs) over Clinton Portis (6th in yards/scrimmage, 8 TDs) is worth noting. Given the Cowboys’ success and Barber’s better yards per rush; I think it was the right choice but Portis could’ve justified a nod and I wouldn’t have questioned it.

Fullback (FB)

• Tony Richardson, Minnesota

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
• Terrell Owens, Dallas
• Torry Holt, St. Louis
• Donald Driver, Green Bay

Snub Alert = Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress & Greg Jennings: No disrespect to Torry Holt and Donald Driver, but neither deserved a Pro Bowl nod this year. Marques Colston was unquestionably snubbed (87 recs/1092 yards/9 TDs) while Burress and Jennings (10 TDs and 12 TDs, respectively) have both been more impactful than Driver this year.

Tight End (TE)

• Jason Witten, Dallas
• Chris Cooley, Washington

Snub Alert = NIL: Witten and Cooley have been, far and away, the two most deserving tight ends in the NFC all season.

Offensive Line

• Flozell Adams, Dallas (T)
• Walter Jones, Seattle (T)
• Chris Samuels, Washington (T)
• Leonard Davis, Dallas (G)
• Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota (G)
• Shawn Andrews, Philadelphia (G)
• Andre Gurode, Dallas (C)
• Matt Birk, Minnesota (C)

Snub Alert = Chad Clifton, Green Bay (T) and Chris Snee, New York (G): The offensive line selections are often joked about as being tenured (once you’re in, you’re in until you retire) and many of the same names appear predictably. I don’t have a ton of problems with the selections save for the omission of Chad Clifton, who has been the best lineman one of the NFC’s dominant offenses. Chris Snee, as much as it pains me to say, is more deserving this year than Big Cat Andrews, as well.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

As you might imagine, I’m in a lot of leagues. In TEN of them, I had the good fortune to draft Tony Romo and, in most, made the playoffs as a result. While Romo hasn’t been Tom Brady, he’s been awfully good and considering he came in the 7th or 8th round of most 10- team drafts; he’s arguably one of the most valuable players of the season.

But as any veteran fantasy owner knows, once the fantasy playoffs roll around, your only as good as your last game.

Thanks to Tony Romo; I’m now pretty crappy.

• 13 completions
• 36 attempts
• 36.1% completion percentage
• 214 yards
• 0 TDs
• 3 INTs
• 9.3 fantasy points [using FBG scoring]

NOTHING is more painful than having one or more of your fantasy studs lay a goose egg in the playoffs. For those playing at home (and I know a lot of you are!)…Romo was outscored by TWENTY THREE (23) other QBs this week, including such “studs” as:

• Chad Pennington, NYJ
• Matt Moore, CAR
• Josh McCown, OAK
• Brodie Croyle, KC
• Cleo Lemon, MIA
• Shaun Hill, SF

FUN TIMES!

So what does this have to do with Jessica Simpson, you ask? Well, it seems our Mr. Romo has a trouble playing at his normal Pro Bowl level when a lady love is in the stands. This weekend, a pink-jersey clad Jessica Simpson was watching Romo stink up the joint. Coincidence, you say? Well let me ask you this…when was the last time Romo had a game this poor?

• Week 16, 2006
• 14 of 29 (48.3%)
• 142 yards
• 1 TD
• 2 INTs

What was special about that game? Carrie Underwood, his girlfriend at the time, was in the stands.

Bottom line: If you draft Tony Romo for your fantasy team, do everything humanly possible to make sure he isn’t dating a blonde pop idol at the time of your playoffs…OR ELSE!

Tonight we’re treated to a matchup of football titans. 10-1 Dallas hosts 10-1 Green Bay in a battle of the all-time best gunslinger against the young franchise QB most reminiscent of him. The Cowboys came into the season as one of the odds on favorites to win the NFC, but the Packers were considered an over-the-hill franchise that might have been better off letting Favre retire, and focusing on rebuilding.

It’s thinking like that which reminds us of the difference between fans pretending they run NFL franchises and ACTUALLY having to run one.

And while this matchup should be entertaining and full of fantasy football goodness; unfortunately a good chunk of the NFL-watching populous is going to have to wait for the highlights on SportsCenter. You see, tonight’s game will be broadcast on the NFL Network; which isn’t currently carried in a lot of places. This is the 2nd year of the NFL Network’s exclusive contract to carry Thursday night games in November and December; but it’s the first game that should actually ignite fans to complain to their cable providers about the lack of NFL Network access.

Fun times indeed.

But, as a DirecTV owner, I will be comfortably positioned in front of my TV ready to watch the best NFC game of the year.

For those playing at home, here is a tale of the tape:

Enjoy the game (or enjoy hearing about the game after the fact )

Somber news this morning as Sean Taylor, the Washington Redskins talented safety, has passed away as a result of the gunshot wounds suffered at his home yesterday. Taylor was only 24 years old and his assailant remains at large.

Any loss of life is tragic and, while Taylor was an ultra-talented player, it seems somehow disrespectful to make today’s news about the death of a football player. This was about the death of a man, a friend, a father, a son; and unfortunately is just one of innumerable acts of senseless violence that punctuates our society.

Rest in Peace Sean Taylor; and our deepest thoughts and sympathies to his family and friends.

The Giants 41-17 pounding at the hands of the Vikings this weekend was a tough pill to swallow for a team that had far exceeded expectations for much of the season. Whether this was simply the case of a team falling flat or hearkens back to recent second half swoons remains to be seen. But there’s no doubt that Giants fans, coaches, teammates and most importantly, fantasy owners, are all hoping that Eli Manning’s performance bounces back in a hurry.

There was a lot of talk yesterday about Eli Manning’s tendency to regress as the season wears on. Is that really true, or does it just seem that way because the TEAM has floundered late in the season?

Here’s your answer:

Eli Manning’s PER ATTEMPT passing numbers 

The numbers are clear as day, throughout Eli Manning’s career he’s been prone to very strong Septembers, followed by downright mediocrity the rest of the way. This year he’s on a similar trajectory. While there are some legitimate reasons for the Giants struggles of late (most notably Plaxico Burress’ ever-worsening ankle pain); the onus is on Manning to rise to the occasion.

OK, long-time Footballguys subscribers know I’m an Eagles fan and season ticket holder. While I’m disappointed with the way this season has unfolded, and respect the Patriots as much as the next guy, I was floored to see today’s point spread:

• 23.5 POINTS

Granted, the Eagles are likely without Donovan McNabb (there’s a surprise) and are on the road against arguably the most dominant team of the modern era. But according to ESPN, this is the LARGEST point spread in league history (ex-expansion teams). The Eagles are 5-5 and rank in the top 10 both offensively (6th) and defensively (7th) in the league.

Oh the humanity. While I highly doubt the Eagles can win the game; I surely hope they “shock the world” and reset expectations for just how dominant the Patriots are.