Wow, sometimes I just don’t get it. The Minnesota Vikings acquire DE Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs and sign him to a new contract, and I see hosts of people on radio, TV and internet message boards saying that the Vikings OVERPAID. While I can see, on the surface, why some people may have that initial reaction, I frankly think it’s conventional thinking and, with just a little analysis, people will come to realize that this move was nothing short of a NO-BRAINER for the Vikings.

First, let’s get the terms of the trade out of the way:

Vikings Get:

• DE Jared Allen
• 6th round pick (6.21 — 187th overall)

Chiefs Get:

• 1st round pick (1.17 — 17th overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.10 — 73rd overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.19 — 82nd overall)
• 6th round pick (6.16 — 182nd overall)

In conjunction with the trade, the Vikings gave Allen a new 6-year contract worth up to $74mm with incentives. The deal includes $31mm in guarantees; and puts Allen among the league’s highest paid defenders.

For those who might not realize, the 2007 Minnesota Vikings were the first team in NFL history to lead the league in both rushing offense and defense yet miss the playoffs. This team isn’t in rebuilding mode, it’s a team that could easily compete for a top seed in the NFC playoffs, particularly with the retirement of Brett Favre; the NFC North is wide open for the Vikes’ taking.

For the naysayers, let me offer you not one but two perspectives on why this deal made a ton of sense for Minnesota:

Approach #1: The Peer Group Comparison

Let’s say you turned on Sportscenter and read that the Vikings acquired Julius Peppers from the Panthers instead. Better yet, let’s say they acquired Dwight Freeney for the same draft compensation from Indianapolis. How many NFL pundits and fans would be singing the Vikings praises then? Yet, here’s the thing…Jared Allen is AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER than either Peppers or Freeney.

• Julius Peppers — 28 years old, 90 games played, 56 sacks, 31 passes defensed, 288 tackles
• Dwight Freeney — 28 years old, 88 games played, 60 sacks, 11 passes defensed, 190 tackles
• Jared Allen — 26 years old, 61 games played, 43 sacks, 25 passes defense, 227 tackles

Allen is:

• Two years younger
• Healthier
• Averaged more sacks per game (0.70 vs. 0.68 & 0.62)
• Averaged more passes defensed per game (0.41 vs. 0.13 & 0.34)
• Averaged more tackles per game (3.72 vs. 2.16 & 3.20)

Approach #2: The Draft Value Chart Comparison

By now everyone knows that most NFL teams utilize a derivative of the same draft trade chart that was first popularized by Jimmy Johnson back in his Cowboys coaching days. This is the tried and true chart teams use to evaluate trading up or down on draft day. The chart assigns a point value to each pick and declines with each successive pick.

According to the most common version of the trade chart, the value of the picks KC received was:

• 17th = 950 points
• 73rd = 225 points
• 82nd = 180 points
• 182nd = 18.6 points
• TOTAL = 1,373.6 points

In order for most GMs to make this trade, they have to feel they’re getting back equivalent or better value. The value of the 6th round pick the Vikes acquired = 16.6 points, which means:

• 187th = 16.6 points
• DIFFERENTIAL = 1,357 points

In order for the deal to make sense, Jared Allen should be “worth” at least 1,357 points on the draft chart. According to the draft chart:

• 9th overall = 1,350 points
• 8th overall = 1,400 points

Does ANYONE want to argue that Jared Allen isn’t worth the 8th or 9th overall pick in this year’s draft? You’re getting a 26 year old proven ELITE defensive end. Frankly, if we’re being intellectually honest, Jared Allen would be the 1st overall pick WITHOUT QUESTION if he were draft eligible this year. He’s a proven commodity at an elite position. Yet, all the Vikings really need out of him is the value of the 8th or 9th pick in the draft.

Let’s not mince words. Barring injury, this deal was a LAYUP for the Vikings. Keep in mind what Jared Allen has accomplished and then consider who his defensive linemates were in Kansas City. Now, he gets to line up alongside Kevin and Pat Williams; the best 4-3 tackles in the NFC. The Vikes added the league’s best young defensive end to a defense that already led the league in rushing defense. Even if their pass offense continues to struggle this season, the combination of a stifling defense and the NFC’s top rushing offense should give them as easy a road to the playoffs as any team in the NFC.

Congrats to the Vikings fans; as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m jealous.

A few years ago, the Broncos elevated Ted Sundquist’s status within the organization, in a move to de-lever Mike Shanahan’s control on the organization. Shanahan, like many other coaches in the late 90s and early part of this decade, was able to become the de factor GM in addition to head coach. And like most of those coaches, it eventually became apparent that it’s probably not the ideal situation. Coaching an NFL team is a full-time job and then some. Successfully managing a team’s personnel needs including contract terms, free agency and draft preparation is, also, a full-time job many times over.

Enter Sundquist. Sundquist was the long-time director of player personnel and effectively answered to Shanahan. But in 2002, ownership promoted Sundquist to the role of General Manager which SUPPOSED to give him more power and autonomy.

Yet, those close to the Denver situation never really believed Shanahan lost ultimate say. Which is why today’s firing of Sundquist is an odd one. Yes, the Broncos haven’t been as competitive in the 2000s as they were in Shanahan’s early years. But, if Shanny never really lost control of personnel decisions, why must Sundquist go? Was it REALLY his fault?

At some point, Shanahan is going to run out of other people to blame for the Broncos recent return to mediocrity. But, at least for another season, it appears he’s found a scapegoat.

Just when you though the Raiders couldn’t get any nuttier, they go ahead and blow their own record for financial inadequacy right out of the water. We, like many others, wondered why the Raiders were so eager to commit $50.5mm including $18mm in guarantees to DT Tommy Kelly at the start of free agency. And when Al Davis followed that up with the questionable signing of safety Gibril Wilson to a 6-year, $39mm contract with $16mm in guarantees, we bit our tongue. But neither move comes close to yesterday’s signing of Javon Walker.

According to several sources, the Raiders are putting the finishing touches on a 6-year, $55 million contract. The deal allegedly includes $16mm in guarantees and will pay him $27mm over the first three years of the deal.

That is BAFFLING.

Even if we accept the notion that this year’s free agent contracts are driven by the inflation of a rising salary cap, how on Earth can the Raiders justify the sensibility of this signing?

• Randy Moss, he of the 23 TD receptions and Hall of Fame credentials, just signed a 3-year, $27mm deal with New England. Moss got $15mm guaranteed. The Raiders are paying Walker MORE guaranteed money than Randy Moss!
• Jerry Porter, another Raiders castoff, signed a 6-year deal with the Jaguars. The difference? It was for $30mm with $10mm guaranteed. In other words, Walker is getting 2x what Porter got.

It would be one thing if the Raiders were signing Walker based solely on his talent, with no concern toward his prior injuries or personality quirks. But how can you ignore either of those factors?

• Demanded a trade from Green Bay
• Demanded a trade/release from Denver
• Complained about his contractual status on both teams
• Has undergone not one, not two, but THREE knee surgeries in the last three years

Does that sound like someone you break the bank for, and give a monster contract to without showing his stuff? While there were other teams interested in Javon, does anyone honestly think another team would’ve come close to matching that deal?

If Walker is healthy, he can produce; let’s not mistake that. He’s scored 30 TDs in 72 games, and has two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. But given his attitude and injury risk; not to mention the potentially impressionable nature of 2nd year QB JaMarcus Russell; this signing makes little sense. Walker has all the advantage here, where is the Raiders leverage?

The silver (& black) lining is that savvy fantasy football owners can successfully ignore Walker in 2008. I’m sure his “potential” will mean he gets drafted far too early for the risks involved. Let someone else take that risk while you build your roster the right way.

A lot of people are scratching their heads today. On the eve of free agency, the Oakland Raiders have signed Tommy Kelly to a 7-year, $50.5mm deal, making him — wait for it — the HIGHEST PAID DEFENSIVE TACKLE IN LEAGUE HISTORY. Yes, you heard that right folks…the Raiders signed the relatively unknown lineman for more money ($18mm guaranteed) than any lineman to ever suit up in the league.

So who is Tommy Kelly? He’s 6′6″, 300 pound defensive end that’s going to move inside to play undertackle in place of retired Warren Sapp. As you can see from his measurables, Kelly is built more like a defensive tackle; and the Raiders obviously think he can flourish inside. That said, Kelly’s best season was 2006 when he logged 68 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Last year, Kelly started six games but tore his ACL and was lost for the second half of the season.

If you think the Raiders overpaid for Kelly’s services, you’re not alone. Adam Schefter remarked on tonight’s NFL Total Access that a number of personnel executives were stunned by the signing. Now, if Kelly turns out to be a Pro Bowl caliber defensive tackle, the deal would be justified.

Cory Redding REDUX? Before Raiders fans get too excited, let’s remember what happened to Lions fans last season. A year ago, the Lions signed Cory Redding to a monster deal, making him the highest paid lineman. Lions fans pointed toward Redding’s solid 2006 (47 tackles, 8 sacks) and argued that Redding was on the verge of becoming a dominant young tackle. Well, a year later Redding logged a whopping 37 tackles and ONE SACK in 16 starts for one of the worst defenses in the league. This deal sure smells a lot like that one, doesn’t it?

Who benefits? That’s an easy one…any defensive tackle that’s up for a new contract benefits. Imagine the dance of joy going on at Tommie Harris’ house tonight. Think of how much the Titans are going to have to pay Albert Haynesworth if they want him to sign a multi-year extension instead of the one year franchise tender.

If there’s one lesson to take from this [aside from Al Davis’ growing senility], it’s that this year’s free agent class is going to land huge contracts by historical standards. With the rising salary cap combined with an unprecedented amount of salary cap room; teams are flush with cash and will find reasons to spend their money.

It was bad enough that Antonio Gates was hobbled throughout the Chargers playoff run (6 catches for 60 yards and no scores in 3 games); but now fans have to wonder if he’ll be a factor at all in 2008. Yes folks, the world’s most dominant fantasy tight end is likely to undergo surgery next week to repair his injured foot. Although some have reported that Gates would be fine by the beginning of the regular season; he doesn’t appear as confident:

“It may be the beginning of training camp and it may be the middle of the season,” Antonio Gates said.

Until we have a clearer sense about Gates’ injury and the severity, it’s pure conjecture as to his projected recovery time. One thing is clear, Gates will present fantasy owners will a conundrum come draft time. He’s been BY FAR, the best fantasy TE in the league for years and there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t reprise that role again in 2008 if healthy. But given his lack of productivity in December and January; plus the recovery time from his upcoming surgery, how far must his draft stock fall before he represents good value? Stay tuned!

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

We’ve been talking a lot about the franchise tag designation in recent days, and Raiders CB Nmandi Asomugha was among our list of potential candidates. While it wasn’t surprising to see him tagged, it’s notable that the Raiders went above and beyond the conventional franchise tag by designating Asomugha an EXCLUSIVE franchise player.

How does that differ from the conventional (or non-exclusive) franchise tag designation?

• The player is guaranteed the average of the top 5 players at his position for the CURRENT (upcoming) year [the non-exclusive uses average salaries of the prior year]
• The player is not allowed to negotiate with any other team [non-exclusive tags allow for a team to accept 2 first round picks if another team signs the player]

Denver Broncos

The Broncos don’t have any free agents that are obvious fits for either the franchise or transition tag designation.

Kansas City Chiefs

DE Jared Allen

The Chiefs are expected to tag Jared Allen with an eye toward signing him to a long-term deal before the July 15th deadline. Allen had 15.5 sacks this season and has averaged 11 sacks per season over his 4-year career. Pass rushers of Allen’s ability simply don’t get into the open market very often.

Oakland Raiders

CB Nmandi Asomugha

Rumors persist that Asomugha will be franchised if the team can’t come to terms on a long-term deal before the tagging deadline. The 5-year veteran is considered a cornerstone of the team’s young, energetic defense and; given the price of free agent corners, it might not be as shocking a decision to tag him as one might think. That said, Asomugha is coming off a disappointing season following his breakout 2006 campaign. The team wouldn’t be tagging Asomugha for the player he already is; but rather for the player they think he can become.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers don’t have many key free agents, and aren’t likely to utilize their tag designations.

Interesting comments in the Denver Post from Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan regarding the future of RB Selvin Young:

Selvin Young is ideal for 10 to 15 carries a game, but Shanahan said he’s not a 20-to-25 carry back.

“No, definitely not,” Shanahan said. “Any time a guy’s been hurt as many times as he did, you know that there’s no possible way he can carry the ball 20, 25 times a game. The body just won’t hold up. He went down too many times this year. But you are looking at a guy that you know has big-play potential.”

Not really a surprise, but given the struggles of Travis Henry this season, it seems a foregone conclusion that Denver will ONCE AGAIN be looking for someone new to carry the load at the RB position. It was Young, not Henry, who led the Broncos in rushing this season, marking the FIFTH CONSECUTIVE season that someone different topped Denver’s RB ledger:

It’s hard not to notice the diminishing returns the Broncos have gotten from their lead rusher since Clinton Portis’ trade. This year Travis Henry was supposed to erase the need for a committee approach, but nagging injuries and legal concerns regarding a possible failed drug test curtailed a strong start to the season.

Will Henry be back and, if so, provide the 1,400+ yards we forecast for him in 2007? According to the Post article, only if he’s willing to take a significant pay cut. With so many mouths to feed, and a history of financial problems, somehow I wonder if Henry will be willing to do that.

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Tom Brady, New England
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Snub Alert = NIL: They’re 1-2-3 in passing TDs and passer rating in the AFC, and are all in position to lead their teams to division titles. The AFC QB situation was top heavy this year, as Derek Anderson and David Garrard were also deserving; but not at the expense of the three selections.

Running Backs (RB)

• LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
• Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
• Joseph Addai, Indianapolis

Snub Alert = Willis McGahee & Jamal Lewis: I keep hearing about Fred Taylor’s “Pro Bowl snub” and I’m just not seeing it. Sure, he’s averaging 5.1 yards per rush but is only 14th in yards from scrimmage with a meager 4 TDs. The real snubs were a pair of AFC North runners. McGahee has almost as many yards from scrimmage as Willie Parker but 4x the TDs (8 vs. 2) while Jamal Lewis is 9th in the league in yards with a better YPC (4.3) than either Parker or Addai. Lewis has 11 TDs to Parker’s 2.

Fullback (FB)

• Lorenzo Neal, San Diego

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Randy Moss, New England
• Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
• Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati

Snub Alert = Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall & ‘Ocho Cinco’: I personally think the AFC WR selections are spot on, but a case could be made for Welker (96 catches, 9 TDs), Marshall (1,136 yards, 6 TDs) and Chad Johnson (1,265 yards, 6 TDs), too. Unfortunately for those three, it has been a historic year for WR production with Moss (19 TDs), Edwards (13 TDs) and Housh (11 TDs) all putting up huge numbers while Wayne is 2nd in the AFC in yards with an impressive 9 TDs while emerging as the go-to receiver for Peyton Manning in Marvin Harrison’s absence.

Tight End (TE)

• Antonio Gates, San Diego
• Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City

Snub Alert = Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Statistically Winslow and Gonzalez are close enough that one can’t argue Tony G doesn’t deserve to backup Gates (who is clearly the best in the business); but WATCHING them this year, I think the nod should’ve gone to Winslow. Gonzalez is having the quietest “big” season from a tight end in years, at least from this fan’s perspective.

Offensive Line

• Matt Light, New England (T)
• Jason Peters, Buffalo (T)
• Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore (T)
• Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh (G)
• Logan Mankins, New England (G)
• Kris Dielman, San Diego (G)
• Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis (C)
• Dan Koppen, New England (C)

Snub Alert = Joe Thomas (T), Eric Steinbach (G) & Michael Roos (T): You can argue that the Patriots line is greater than the sum of its parts; but for as long as the Pro Bowl has been around, dominant teams have been afforded multiple lineman on the roster. I’m less bothered by the trio of Patriots as I am the presence of Jon Ogden. Sure, he may be a Hall of Famer but he’s been an absolute shell of himself this year and his presence keeps two young deserving tackles, Roos and Thomas, off the roster. Similarly, Eric Steinbach has mauled people and been worth every penny Cleveland paid him; there is room for him on this roster over any of the guards selected.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

Over the last few weeks, three NFL running backs have joined the 10,000-yards rushing club.

• LaDainian Tomlinson: 10,048 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Warrick Dunn: 10,044 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Fred Taylor: 10,221 yards rushing (in Week 10)

Congratulations are in order as they become  just the 20th, 21st and 22nd players in  NFL history to rush for at least 10,000 yards.

LaDainian Tomlinson is having another excellent season in San Diego; but it pales in comparison to his MVP season of a year ago. While it was impossible to expect Tomlinson to match last year’s output, few expected the Chargers offense as a unit to take a big step back; particularly with Norv Turner at the helm. But, amidst the Chargers up-and-down 2007, there is one player who is, yet again, having an astoundingly good year.

Antonio Gates is on pace for one of the best offensive seasons by a tight end in NFL history.

Through 11 games:

• 60 receptions
• 834 yards
• 13.9 yards per catch
• 8 touchdowns
• 131.4 fantasy points

If Gates maintains his current pace, he’ll finish with:

• 87 receptions
• 1,213 yards
• 13.9 yards per catch
• 12 touchdowns
• 191.1 fantasy points

Here is where those numbers would stand among the all-time single season marks:

• Receptions: Tied for 13th all-time
• Yards: 5th place
• TDs: Tied for 2nd place (Gates holds the single season record with 13 TDs in 2004)
• Fantasy Points: 3rd place

 Other Thoughts:

1. Gates is likely to become the 1st TE in NFL history with three (3) seasons of 10+ TD receptions
2. Gates will overtake Kellen Winslow for 10th all-time with 46 or more TDs at his current pace

Yesterday we talked about Priest Holmes’ neck injury and how the door opens for Kolby Smith. Today, the story continues as Priest Holmes officially ends his career:

“I have truly been blessed with the opportunity to play in the National Football League,” he said. “I will be forever grateful to the Hunt family and the Chiefs organization for the opportunity to come to Kansas City, where the community embraced me from Day 1.”

Fantasy owners know that Priest Holmes was an absolute beast for a few seasons; and he should be remembered as one of the better runners of his era. Unfortunately his late start (he was relegated to backup duties in Baltimore for awhile) and the injuries likely will keep Holmes from getting serious Hall of Fame consideration. But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t HIGHLY productive:

• 3 Pro Bowls (2001, 2002, 2003)
• Four 1,000-yard seasons
• His 27 rushing TDs in 2003 set a single season record, and currently stand 3rd all-time
• Three consecutive seasons with at least 2,000 yards from scrimmage
• Three consecutive seasons as a dominant fantasy player
  • #2 ranked RB in 2001
  • #1 ranked RB in 2002
  • #1 ranked RB in 2003

Congratulations to Priest Holmes on a fantastic career; and best of luck for a healthy and fulfilling retirement.

If the name Kolby Smith doesn’t mean much to you, don’t beat yourself up too much. Until today, Smith was a little used rookie backup running back for the Kansas City Chiefs. But, as of today, Smith is now the STARTING TAILBACK for the Chiefs; following Priest Holmes’ Week 11 injury:

Jay Glazer: Fox Sports

Running back Priest Holmes re-injured his neck in Sunday’s 13-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and his career is in doubt, FOXSports.com has learned. Holmes returned from a nearly two-year hiatus earlier this season, an absence that was also a result of a neck injury.According to sources, Holmes was dinged two or three times on Sunday. The last time came in the fourth quarter, which saw him leave the field in a wobbly state after his 20th touch of the game.

As a result, Holmes saw a specialist early this week and will see a series of specialists who can help him better determine his future. In light of the fact Holmes is already returning from a neck injury, this latest scare certainly has to raise questions, not only about this year, but about the future of his career.

Enter Kolby Smith. College fans and draft aficionados may remember Smith as the guy who took over for the injured Michael Bush as Louisville’s main runner last season. Smith was effective in Bush’s stead, but graded out as a backup prospect. He was selected in the 5th round by the Chiefs, and was thought to be a special teamer this year with Larry Johnson and Michael Bennett on the active roster. But with LJ’s injury, Priest’s injury (who was a surprise contributor) and Michael Bennett’s trade to Tampa Bay; Smith has a chance to prove his skeptics wrong.

Our Sigmund Bloom ranked Smith as the 13th best RB prospect last season, and had this to say:

Michael Bush’s injury was Kolby Smith’s opportunity, and Smith made the most of it. He’s another back whose main asset is his versatility, especially if he can add the weight and adopt the attitude to play some fullback. He’ll make for a competent backup RB even if he doesn’t.

The bad news for Smith is that the Chiefs have really struggled offensively even when Larry Johnson has been in the game. The offensive line is a shell of the unit that mauled people for much of the last decade. The good news is he faces an Oakland Raiders run defense that has allowed the most fantasy points in the league.  

If Smith can surprise this week with a strong game, he could be in line for a string of them. According to Clayton Gray’s ultimate strength of schedule, the Chiefs have the 2nd easiest fantasy schedule remaining against the run.

Travis Henry got off to a great start but has struggled a bit of late; partially because of the Broncos overall struggles but also because of some injured ribs. More importantly to fantasy owners though is the looming suspension he faces if his appeal of a positive urine test is upheld. While the potential for suspension remains quite high (and by now you’ve either grabbed his backups or have missed the boat); he’s too valuable to not make the most of while his lawyers try to extend his season.

This week news came that Henry’s appeal won’t be heard for at least another two weeks.

An NFL spokesman confirmed Henry’s league appeal is set to be heard Nov. 16 in New York, but like the previous assigned date, it could be moved back again. His appeal for a possible suspension for a positive drug test previously had been set for Monday. The current appeal date is scheduled three days before Denver hosts Tennessee, the team Henry played for before signing with Denver as a free agent. Henry’s future with the Broncos might not be decided until weeks after the NFL hearing date.

That means, if his ribs are OK, Henry will be toting the rock for another few games.  At this point you have one choice: Rely on him while he’s active.

With Travis Henry out with injury, the rookie from Texas looked very good against a tough Packer defense on Monday night. The 5′11″, 215-pound former Longhorn displayed the varsatility the Broncos love with 71 yards rushing (on 18 carries) and 49 yards receiving. Averaging almost 4.0 ypc against the Packers is a feat unto itself. They are averaging just 3.83 on the season and have contained some good ball carriers this season.

There is a “but” coming. Contrary to what many believe, the Texas star will have to split carries. This is the same Selvin Young that did not lead his college team in carries for any of his years as a Texas Longhorn. He split carries with Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, and Vince Young. In fact, the most carries Selvin Young had in any one college season was 137. This was just 11 carries a game.

Young was used as the change of pace back. He is a very good receiver and is nifty in the open field. But, the issue arises when people begin extrapolating out the 18 carries Young had in prime time on Monday Night Football. With the Travis Henry suspension ruling coming soon, Young looks to be a big part of the Bronco offense going forward. But, expect him to either split time or start getting nicked.

The Chief defense is still not recognized as a top defense. They started off the season slow, losing two games to the Texans and Bears, while giving up 20 points in each contest. But, in the last four games, the Kansas City defense has yielded only 63 points while going 3-1.

What changed? The return of Jared Allen from his suspension is the biggest difference. In the week six win against the Bengals, Allen was everywhere. He had 2.5 sacks and kept constant pressure on Carson Palmer. The Chiefs held the Bengals to 20 points, compared to the 26.5 points a game average Carson Palmer and company brought into the game. In week four, the Chiefs held the Chargers to 16 points. In the two games since, the Chargers have scored 69 points against two good defenses (Broncos and Raiders).

YouTube: D-Ends of the KC Chiefs 

The Chiefs get the Oakland Raiders this Sunday. Expect Jared Allen and company to have a field day with Daunte Culpepper and company. For fantasy leagues, the Kansas City Chiefs defense should be a very good start. The following week, the Chiefs are on bye.

It’s only Wednesday and today’s optimism can be tomorrow’s disappointment…BUT, for those fantasy owners who feel like they’ve been fielding a patchwork team the last few weeks due to devastating injuries and killer bye weeks, it APPEARS that good news may be upon us.

While this is all preliminary (keep checking Footballguys.com for real-time updates as we receive them)…the following key players are hopeful of returning to the field in Week 7:

• QB Marc Bulger (STL) is hopeful that he’ll be able to start this week after missing time with his rib injury. He was on the active roster last week and is feeling much better. He’s still not 100% but he should be good enough to play.
• RB Joseph Addai (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
• WR Anquan Boldin (ARI) is expected to return to the starting line up this week after missing time with a hip injury. He ran some before the game Sunday and felt like his old self. “It’s the first time I’ve been able to explode, run routes and things like that, he said. “It isn’t sore today (Monday) so we’ll test it again Wednesday and see how it is.”
• WR Javon Walker (DEN) returned to practice this week. He missed the past two games with fluid in his surgically repaired right knee. Walker said he may take it easy in practice this week, but there is no way he is going to miss Sunday’s game. “It’s crunch time,” he said. “I got to be out there.” Walker said the knee won’t be completely healthy until after the season when he can rest it. “I have to play through it,” he said. “I’m ready to go.”
• WR Andre Johnson (HOU) could return this week when they host Tennessee. A decision won’t be known until at least Wednesday. “He’s progressing well; (we’re) very, very hopeful that he’s ready to go this week,” HC Gary Kubiak said. “We’ll run him tomorrow. We liked the progress we saw last week, so we’ve just kind of got our fingers crossed that he’s ready to go this week.”
• WR Marvin Harrison (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
  
• TE Vernon Davis (SF) is expected to return to practice this week and has a chance to play this weekend. When coach Mike Nolan was asked about Davis’ status for this week, he said, “It’s questionable. We’ll see how they practice on Wednesday. I’m hopeful.”

Who says NFL trades never happen? Yesterday Michael Bennett was traded to Tampa Bay; but today a much bigger (potentially) deal went down as the San Diego Chargers acquired Chris Chambers from the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick.

This is the rare mid-season deal that has significant fantasy implications.

1. Chambers will be the lead WR in San Diego — It may take a few games, but Chambers will almost certainly become Philip Rivers most targeted WR
2. Vincent Jackson can’t be happy — The Chargers young wideout is now going to have to compete for targets with a proven veteran. Ultimately this might be good for Jackson’s career though, as he may be better suited as a WR2
3. Malcolm Floyd and Craig Davis become relative non-factors — Neither WR was making a ton of plays anyway, but they will now be relegated to backup duty primarily
4. Philip Rivers gets an upgrade — I’m not the biggest Chambers fan (more on that in a second) but his addition definitely improves Rivers’ arsenal
5. Don’t downgrade Gates or Tomlinson – Gates and Tomlinson aren’t going to lose many targets because of this move. If anything, this should allow the Chargers to sustain offensive drives more often, which means more red zone chances for Gates and Tomlinson; the best at their respective positions when it comes to scoring TDs
6. The Dolphins are throwing in the towel -- Honestly, the Dolphins are officially heading toward 2008 at this point, giving up their lone playmaker in the receiving game.
7. Upgrade Ted Ginn Jr. and Marty Booker — SOMEONE besides Ronnie Brown has to get passes thrown their way, and rookie Ginn is probably going to see a ton of them as the Dolphins look to rebuild toward a 2008 resurgence.

Where does this put Chambers now in terms of fantasy value?

Through six games, Chambers has 31 receptions for 415 yards, but zero TDs. His numbers project to:

• 83 receptions
• 1,107 yards

It’s difficult to look at his situation in San Diego and not expect Chambers to improve, right? Well, let’s be careful here.

Targets = Opportunity

Through six games, Chambers have been targeted a whopping 66 times. That’s the 4th most targets in the league. You can be sure that Chambers WILL NOT see as many passes thrown his way in San Diego.

1. The Chargers run the ball a lot more
2. Antonio Gates has been targeted 54 times; leading the team
3. LaDainian Tomlinson has been targeted 38 times
4. The Chargers WRs have been targeted 66 times COMBINED through Week Six

The fact is, Chambers will go from being one of THE most targeted receivers in football to somewhere toward the bottom of WR1s in the league. So the real question fantasy owners need to ask themselves is, can Chambers do MORE with each target? The bad news is Chambers has always had hands of stone.

Take a look at the 50 most targeted receivers over the last 5+ seasons (2002-2007), ranked by reception-to-target percentage:

Hands of stone. And the bad news is Chambers has been consistently poor at converting targets into catches. His career best rate was, as a rookie, when he caught 53% of his targets. This year he’s running at 47%, bout 15-20% lower than most elite receivers.

What’s the silver lining?  

I can see two potential areas of encouragement. 1) Norv Turner coaches Chambers for two years in Miami; including the 2003 season when Chambers finished as the 11th best fantasy wideout. 2) Chambers has ZERO TDs right now, but has historically been a good TD producer. I would be surprised if Turner doesn’t find a way to get him at least 5 or 6 TDs the rest of the way.

So what’s the verdict? If you own Chris Chambers, it’s probably a slight upgrade for you if he can score touchdowns, but in PPR leagues his value almost assuredly takes a dip for a few weeks, if not the entire season. If you were starting Vincent Jackson on a consistent basis, you probably want to look elsewhere. It also means Philip Rivers (who hopefully has been on your bench) might now become a viable option at QB. On the Dolphins side, this puts even more pressure on Ronnie Brown to carry the load. He’s been too dominant to sit, but you might want to give more consideration to a trade at this point. Ted Ginn probably is the biggest beneficiary, in that the Fins have absolutely no reason not to start him and let him get a baptism by fire the rest of the way.

Good luck!

It seems that every year football fans, fantasy owners and media pundits find a way to hype players as “the best ever” and speak with such hyperbole as though to convince ourselves we’re witnessing greatness. It’s never quite enough to say someone is “very good” or “excellent”…they have to be “the greatest of all time” or “bound for the Hall of Fame.” Such hyperbole often rears its ugly head in March and April as football starved fans salivate over the new crop of NFL rookies.

Calvin Johnson is the latest in a long line of ultra-hyped rookie receivers. Make no mistake, I fully participated in the Calvin Johnson hype too, and with good reason. Johnson has the size of a tight end, world-class speed, glue-like hands and his on-field production is matched by his quality as an upstanding citizen. Combining all that with a chance to play for Mike Martz in a pass happy offense makes Johnson a virtual no brainer.

Yet, Johnson isn’t the best rookie receiver through Week Five. In fact, he’s not the 2nd best rookie. And it’s not even close.

ENTER Dwayne Bowe.

Through Week 5, Bowe is the leading rookie receiver with:

• 22 receptions
• 369 yards
• 16.8 yards per reception
• 3 TDs
• 54.9 fantasy points

Top 10 Rookie Fantasy Recivers (through Week 5)

How does Bowe’s start compare historically? Well, if Bowe were able to sustain his productivity over the full season, his numbers would approximate to:

• 70 receptions
• 1,180 yards
• 16.8 yards per reception
• 10 TDs
• 178 fantasy points

How would those numbers compare historically? 178 fantasy points would make Bowe the 6th most productive fantasy rookie WR in LEAGUE HISTORY

Top 10 Rookie Fantasy WRs (1960-Present)

Should we be surprised? On one hand, Bowe was also a 1st round pick (23rd overall) and was well regarded by most scouts. He also was drafted by a team that had a desperate need for a starting caliber WR. The Chiefs have been relying on Eddie Kennison (who is much better suited as a WR2) for years and have struggled to find consistency at WR2 and beyond. But despite those obvious positives, there were reasons to discount Bowe’s rookie chances. One, the Chiefs QB situation is, and continues to be, tenuous. Two, Herm Edwards is among the league’s most conservative head coaches. Three, changes on the offensive line cast a shadow over the Chiefs ability to sustain drives.

As many of you know, I profess that the keys to fantasy success are Ability and Opportunity. Many NFL players have the ability to excel, but not as many have the opportunity; particularly in their rookie seasons. An injury to Eddie Kennison forced the Chiefs to start Bowe far sooner than I think he would’ve otherwise. But the great news for fantasy owners lucky enough to roster Bowe is that, now that he’s produced week in, week out, you can bet he won’t stop being a productive target when Eddie Kennison gets back in the lineup.