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April 4, 2008

Ex-Bengal Chris Henry: What an Imbecile!

Filed under: AFC North, Strategy, Fired, Footballguys, History, WR, News, Bengals — Mark Wimer @ 10:30 am

Today the Bengals finally cut Chris Henry, after his fifth arrest since joining the team - once again, this latest incident is reputed to be related to assault and battery while under the influence of intoxicating substances of one sort or another.

Mike Frazier, Henry’s agent, continued with the same old platitudes about “helping” Henry -

“I just want to say that we’re sorry this all happened, and we will continue to try to work to help Chris,”

- but, quite honestly, there isn’t a cure for the arrogant ignorance displayed by this ex-Bengal. He has, all-too-obviously, fallen into folly due to the special-rules-for-special-athletes paradigm that certain star athletes believe apply to them (Michael Vick is another infamous example of the special-rules disease, which is in some cases terminal to NFL careers).

There is no other way to account for a person who, like Henry, repeatedly flouts the rule of law and civil authority without regard to the consequences for their multi-million dollar career. He truly is, in the words of the latest judge to preside over this most recent case involving Henry, “a one-man crime wave”.

Anyone who is willing to toss away the culmination of their life’s work for the thrill of beating up on an 18-year old is a dysfunctional loser who doesn’t deserve yet another chance in the NFL.

Fantasy owners, this is why character counts in the NFL. When you are sorting out your draft lists later on this year, remember to weight your lists to reflect who is a high-character player and who is a scumbag. When two players have roughly equal prospects for the upcoming season, the smart pick is to add the guy who isn’t a thug to your roster - it may just save you from wasting a draft pick on an idiot like Chris Henry.

March 3, 2008

Ben Roethlisberger joins the $100mm club…should Steelers fans be worried?

Big Ben Roethlisberger signed an 8-year, $102mm extension today that guarantees him $36mm. Considering Big Ben is taking the same guaranteed money that Peyton Manning and Michael Vick got a few years ago, it’s hard to argue the Steelers are paying him too much. Big Ben has not only brought a SB title to Pittsburgh, but is coming off his best season:

  • 264 completions
  • 404 attempts
  • 65.3% completion
  • 3,154 yards
  • 32 TDs
  • 11 INTs
  • 104.1 paser rating

Personally, I think this is a smart deal. Locking up a young franchise passer is smart business. Given the inflation we’re seeing in salaries this year, they could’ve paid him a lot more and set a new market for franchise QBs, but instead basically met the pre-existing market. That’s good business.

But looking a little deeper, should Steelers fans be worried about this contract? Ben becomes the 7th QB in NFL history awarded a $100mm contract. In each prior case, the team has fared better BEFORE the contract than after.

Player Name Year Win%Pre Win%Post
Brett Favre 2001 63.9% 61.6%
Drew Bledsoe 2001 50.5% 0.0%
Donovan McNabb 2002 55.6% 66.2%
Daunte Culpepper 2003 48.8% 45.9%
Michael Vick 2004 65.3% 48.5%
Carson Palmer 2005 60.7% 46.9%

In all but Donovan McNabb’s case, the QBs landing $100mm contracts have led their teams to a worse winning percentage after the fact. In three cases, the players winning percentage has plummeted, including the three most recent $100mm QBs (Culpepper, Vick, Palmer).

Is this just a random statistical quirk? Probably so. Drew Bledsoe got hurt and only played two games for New England after signing his extension. In Mike Vick and Carson Palmer’s cases, their team’s defenses have fallen off a cliff coincident with their new contracts. But can that not be blamed, at least in part, to the fact these new $100mm deals removed some of the flexibility GMs had in strengthening other parts of the team? Perhaps.

Either way, for now I still say the Steelers were smart to give Big Ben the big extension. Now if the Steelers end up losing more games than they have to date with Big Ben under center, we can revisit this phenomenon more intently.

March 1, 2008

Donte Stallworth: Proving his ‘worth in Cleveland

Filed under: NFL, Free Agency, Donte Stallworth, AFC North, News, WR, Fantasy, Browns — Jason Wood @ 11:59 pm

The Browns continue their free agent bonanza, signing Donte Stallworth to a 7-year, $35mm contract with $10mm in guarantees. This looks like a smart move for player and team alike. After wearing out his welcome in New Orleans, Stallworth was traded to the Eagles in 2006 and averaged a league best 19.1 yards per catch; but the Eagles deemed him expendable because he only played in 12 games and caught 38 passes. Last year, Stallworth was supposed to be Tom Brady’s deep threat; that is, until they traded for Randy Moss a few weeks after signing Donte. He still chipped in 46 catches but wasn’t a centerpiece of the Patriots dynamic offensive attack.

Now, Stallworth gets stability and a chance to establish himself on one of the league’s up-and-coming offenses. His speed should fit perfectly alongside Pro Bowl WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. QB Derek Anderson led the league in yards per completion last year; and Stallworth’s addition will mean even more commitment to an aggressive, downfield passing attack.

What could this mean for the Browns offense?

Last year, Joe Jurevicius caught 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch) with 3 TDs as the starter opposite Braylon Edwards. No other Browns wideout caught more than 8 passes.

So now the Browns add the speedy Stallworth to the mix; allowing them to not only stretch the field more, but to also user more 3-WR sets with Jurevicius (a big, tall, slow receiver) working out of the slot.

Although one can’t extrapolate numbers directly, let’s just have some fun with numbers for a second; if Donte Stallworth matched his career averages last year in place of  Joe Jurevicius, how would the Browns offense have looked?

  • Jurevicius’ 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch), 3 TDs
  • Stallworth’s Career averages — 15.1 yards per catch, 1 TD every 9 catches
  • Implied Stallworth 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 755 yards (15.1 per catch), 5 TDs

If Derek Anderson can approximate his output from 2007 again this season, the Browns could be looking at a 4,000-yard season and 30+ passing TDs. WOW.

February 22, 2008

Jamal Lewis: Signed, sealed, delivered to the Dawg Pound

Sometimes it pays to take chances.

Last year, Jamal Lewis opted for a one-year deal to play in Cleveland after spending seven seasons with rival Baltimore. The move was initially met with skepticism as Lewis’ best days appeared to be behind him, and the Browns seemed to have bigger needs than an aging back. But Lewis took an incentive-laden 1-year deal and took it upon himself to prove the critics wrong.

And did he ever…

  • 15 games played
  • 1,304 yards [his best since 2003]
  • 4.4 yards per rush [best since 2003]
  • 30 receptions [3rd best]
  • 248 receiving yards [best since 2002]
  • 1,552 yards from scrimmage [best since 2003]
  • 11 TDs [best since 2003]
  • RB6 fantasy ranking [best since 2003]

Most importantly, Lewis was a consistent factor in a surprising 10-6 Cleveland team; which appears to be on the right track in no small part because of Lewis’ running and the emerging play of the resurgent offensive line.

This week, Lewis was rewarded with a new 3-year deal (terms not yet disclosed) that will keep him in Cleveland through 2010.

Related Blogs:

Franchise Tag: 2008 Recap

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

  • CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
  • CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
  • DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
  • DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
  • DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
  • LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
  • LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
  • OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
  • OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
  • S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
  • TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
  • TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

  • OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
  • PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

  • Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
  • Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

  • We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
  • We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
  • We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
  • We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
  • We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

February 12, 2008

Baltimore Ravens: Is there a QB in the house?

It seems that the Baltimore Ravens have been in search of a quarterback since they infamous day they decided to leave Cleveland and become the Ravens. Even in their Super Bowl year, with a head coach best known for his offensive machinations, the Ravens trotted out a combination of Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer under center (and also had a span of scoreless games to rival even the most inept teams in league history).

Making the issue even more confounding is the reputation of GM Ozzie Newsome, considered by most to be among the best in the business.

It’s not as though Ozzie hasn’t tried:

  • Vinny Testaverde (29 starts)
  • Eric Zeier (7 starts)
  • Jim Harbaugh (12 starts)
  • Scott Mitchell (2 starts)
  • Stoney Case (4 starts)
  • Tony Banks (18 starts)
  • Trent Dilfer (8 starts)
  • Elvis Grbac (14 starts)
  • Randall Cunningham (2 starts)
  • Jeff Blake (10 starts)
  • Chris Redman (6 starts)
  • Anthony Wright (14 starts)
  • Kyle Boller (42 starts)
  • Steve McNair (22 starts)
  • Troy Smith (2 starts)

What’s more surprising, the number of starters on this list or the fact Kyle Boller tops the list with 42 starts?

With a new coaching staff, and a proven offensive coordinator (Cam Cameron), it stands to reason that Baltimore’s quest for a reliable starter will continue over the next few months. So what are the teams options?

Option 1: Maintain the status quo 

All three QBs (Steve McNair, Kyle Boller & Troy Smith) are under contract; so it’s conceivable the team could stand pat. Unfortunately the trio combined for a meager 3,308 yards passing, 13 TDs and only 5.0 yards per attempt (all among the worst in the league).

  • Steve McNair is 35 years old and coming off surgery on a torn rotator cuff in December, but neither he nor the team have ruled out anything for the 2007 season. Cam Cameron recently spoke to the press and left the door open for McNair to contribute. Realistically, the team would probably like to have McNair as a fall back option.
  • Kyle Boller signed a one-year extension last season, and will make $3mm in 2008. It would seem illogical for the Ravens to part ways with Boller; regardless of whether they intend to give him a shot at winning the starting job or not.
  • Troy Smith, a 5th rounder last year despite winning the Heisman Trophy, is entering his 2nd year of a 3-year contract. Smith got the final two starts of the 2007 season and did precious little to suggest he should be a serious candidate to start in 2008.

Option 2: Scour the free agent market

It’s every fans hope that his team will lure a big-name free agent that makes all the difference. But at the QB position, that’s a nigh impossible task. Teams simply don’t let great QBs hit free agency, at least proven ones. This year’s free agent class of QBs leaves much to be desired:

  • Todd Collins
  • Daunte Culpepper
  • Trent Green [released by Miami this week]
  • Rex Grossman
  • Quinn Gray
  • Tim Hasselbeck
  • Cleo  Lemon
  • Jared Lorenzen
  • Jamie Martin
  • Josh McCown
  • Craig Nall
  • J.T. O’Sullivan
  • Tim Rattay
  • Chris Redman
  • Brian St. Pierre
  • Marques Tuiasosopo
  • Billy Volek
  • Chris Weinke

Option 3: Acquire someone via trade

It always makes for good copy, but how often does a franchise QB get traded? Just a few weeks ago, rumors circulated that the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens were discussing a trade for Donovan McNabb. As with most rumors, this one appears to have no truth to it, as both teams vehemently denied even broaching the subject. Trades are possible (remember the Matt Schaub deal last offseason), but off the top of my head there really aren’t any obvious situations analogous to Schaub’s a season ago.

Option 4: Draft someone

The Ravens own the 8th pick in the draft and could be in position to draft a QB if they so choose. Matt Ryan (B.C.) and Brian Brohm (Louisville) are the consensus top options; and it’s possible one of them could be available at the 8 spot. If neither of those guys is available, or if the Ravens see value at another position with 1.08, the team could look toward someone along the lines of Chad Henne, Andre Woodson or Joe Flacco in the 2nd or 3rd round.

VERDICT: Draft someone and roll with either McNair or Boller in 2008. Given the alternatives,  it seems the Ravens are likely to go with either McNair (if his shoulder holds up) or Boller under center in September 2008; but don’t be surprised to see the Ravens use a fairly high pick on a QB that actually could lead the franchise. Troy Smith, for as great a story as he was, probably isn’t the answer long term.

February 11, 2008

AFC North Potential Tag Players

Baltimore Ravens

LB Terrell Suggs

Suggs has five years in the league yet won’t turn 26 until October. Although his sack totals were down this year (just 5), he’s a proven play-maker who is many years younger than a typical marquee free agent. The Ravens can ill afford to let him leave after losing Adalius Thomas last offseason.

xxxxx

Cincinnati Bengals

DE Justin Smith

Last season the Bengals opted to tag DE Justin Smith despite questions about whether he was an elite defensive end. The logic was that he was a hard worker, and one of the few plus defenders on a defense that needed lots of improvement. Fast forward to this offseason and reports are again surfacing that Smith may get tagged; which, if true, begs the question: WHY? Smith notched only 2 sacks last year and has never had more than the 8.5 of his rookie season. The Bengals defense was awful last year and is more than one player away. In addition, the team has other major issues at play including: T.J. Houshmandzadeh wants a raise, Chad Johnson isn’t necessarily happy, and the team has other key free agents (Williams, Andrews, Johnson).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns resurgent 2007 brings with it challenges in free agency. RB Jamal Lewis gambled on a one-year deal last year and delivered a monster season which should bring him a market rate, multi-year deal. While Lewis is important to the Browns, his age and career workload likely precludes them from tagging him. The other major free agent is QB Derek Anderson; but Anderson is a restricted free agent so Cleveland has the right to match any offer. As a result, don’t look for the Browns to use either designation.

Pittsburgh Steelers

OG Alan Faneca is the best free agent guard on the market, and has been an important cog in the Steelers offensive machine for years. Yet, I’m not listing him as a potential tag candidate because the Steelers seem ready to let him leave via free agency.

January 18, 2008

Ravens hire John Harbaugh….really?

I’m all for the NFL owners openness to new coaching candidates. The idea that they’re no longer content to simply recycle the same old names over and over is refreshing, particularly in a year when there were only four head coaching vacancies (with Tony Dungy possibly providing a fifth).

But JOHN HARBAUGH?

Seriously?

For those who haven’t been paying attention to the Ravens coaching situation, they officially named John Harbaugh the team’s newest head coach, with a 4-year deal rumored to be in the $2mm per year range. Harbaugh was the Ravens backup plan after Jason Garrett turned down their offer earlier in the week.

I’m an Eagles season ticket holder and have to say I’m pretty stunned at this hire. Harbaugh was an Eagles assistant coach since 1998, and apparently his experience under Andy Reid; one of the most successful coaches of the decade, was a huge positive in the eyes of Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti. While I can understand the allure, I still have to wonder whether Harbaugh is ready for this challenge. Remember, the lion’s share of his NFL coaching resume was as a SPECIAL TEAMS coordinator. He was named the NFL Special Teams coach of the year in 2001; and frankly that reputation carried him over the last few seasons. As an Eagles fan, I can say with absolute certainty that the Eagles special teams has been anywhere from mediocre to downright terrible for years. It’s the one area where the team has needed massive improvement during most of the decade. This year, he took over as the secondary coach…but one has to wonder what kind of impact he really made. It’s a largely veteran secondary and the team continues to run the same system under long-time DC Jim Johnson.

To Ravens fans, I wish you luck. It wasn’t that long ago that people were lambasting the Eagles for hiring Andy Reid. At the time, Reid had never been an NFL coordinator and was best known as Brett Favre’s QB coach. The conventional wisdom was that Reid would be overmatched at the outset. Five NFC East titles later and we all know better. Maybe Harbaugh will be that next great coach who comes from an unconventional route. Or, as I suspect, this could end up being the head scratcher that so many of us think it is.

January 15, 2008

The Jason Garrett soap opera continues…

Will he or won’t he?

As expected, the Baltimore Ravens have made Jason Garrett an offer to replace Brian Billick as head coach. And, equally as expected, Jerry Jones is trying desperately to get some time with Garrett to convince him to stay in Dallas. Wouldn’t we all like to be a fly on the wall right now?

From various and sundry sources, we’re hearing:

  • Garrett’s wife came to Baltimore with him and has been touring the city and looking at real estate today
  • Garrett has apparently presented a comprehensive list of assistant coaches, alleged to include Cam Cameron and Dom Capers
  • Jerry Jones has promised to match any financial offer from Baltimore, but it’s unclear whether he is willing to promise Garrett the head coaching job in 2008
  • Baltimore (understandably) wants an answer before he leaves the city

As I said yesterday, Dallas could be the fly in the ointment. But if Baltimore is insisting on Garrett’s decision before he leaves town, that removes a lot of Jones’ leverage. If Garrett genuinely has two former NFL head coaches lined up as his coordinators, I can’t imagine he will say NO unless Jerry Jones somehow promises him the head coaching job in 2008.

January 14, 2008

Baltimore Ravens zero in on Jason Garrett

While Cowboys fans may not be happy about the Giants surprising win this weekend in Big D, Ravens fans may have gotten exactly what they were hoping for. Jason Garrett, the Cowboys OC and this year’s hottest head coaching candidate, is heading to Baltimore for a second interview. Garrett, who is also considering a 2nd interview in Atlanta, appears to be the odds on favorite, particularly now that Marty Schottenheimer has officially closed the door on interviewing.

Thus far, the Ravens have interviewed five candidates:

  • Jim Caldwell, Assistant Head Coach/WR Coach (Indianapolis)
  • John Harbaugh, Secondary Coach (Philadelphia)
  • Rex Ryan, Defensive Coordinator (Baltimore)
  • Brian Schottenheimer, Offensive Coordinator (New York Jets)
  • Tony Sparano, Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line Coach (Dallas)

The Cowboys could be the fly in the ointment here, particularly if Jerry Jones wants to keep Garrett badly enough. Recall, Garrett was hired by Jones BEFORE Wade Phillips, and was given the ethereal title of “either offensive coordinator OR head coach.” If Jones thinks Garrett is the real deal, he may have to do something drastic in order to keep him in the fold.

January 3, 2008

The Tuna hires, fires and re-signs

Filed under: AFC East, NFL, AFC North, Footballguys, News, Dolphins — Jason Wood @ 8:37 pm

Bill Parcells isn’t wasting much time making moves in Miami:

  • Cam Cameron was fired, becoming the 9th NFL head coach since 1990 to be fired after one season
  • Hired Jeff Ireland away from the Cowboys to be the new GM
  • Re-signed Ricky Williams for the 2008 season

While these moves were noteworthy, they set the table for the larger tasks at hand:

  1. Hire a new head coach (my bet is on Cowboys running coordinator Tony Sparano)
  2. Build a new assistant coaching staff
  3. Assess the current roster from top to bottom
  4. Figure out their draft board and plan for scenarios to possibly trade the 1st overall pick

December 31, 2007

Billick ousted in Baltimore

Filed under: AFC North, NFL, Footballguys, Coaching, News, Ravens — Jason Wood @ 3:19 pm

Brian Billick told the world he was coming back in 2008 shortly after losing his 7th consecutive game:

“I’m going to be back,” Billick said at his news conference Monday, according to The Baltimore Sun.

Unfortunately, there were two problems with his prognostication:

  1. His team proceeded to lose to the 0-13 Dolphins the following Sunday
  2. The Ravens owner, Steve Bisciotti, never publicly backed him up

OOPS.

Today the Ravens fired Brian Billick despite the widely held expectation he would return for another season. Billick had signed a 4-year extension prior to the 2007 season; but that wasn’t enough to obscure the calamitous downfall of a 5-win season.

When asked about the move, Bisciotti said:

“I just changed my mind, I can’t explain it to you.”

…and there you go.

You can be sure of a few things: 

  1. Billick, just 53 years old, will absolutely be a head coach in the NFL again (if he wants to). Consider the list of re-treads that get hired for jobs; and then compare their resumes to that of a 53-year old, Super Bowl winning head coach.
  2. The Ravens vacancy will be among the most coveted this offseason:
    1. 13 wins in 2006
    2. Myriad injuries in 2007
    3. A young owner willing to spend money
    4. A loyal fan base
    5. A proven, top-tier general manager
  3. Billick is unlikely to accept a job as an offensive coordinator; if he doesn’t find any suitable offers for a head coaching job in 2008, expect him to choose broadcasting as an alternative

December 18, 2007

AFC Pro Bowl Offense…were there any snubs?

Filed under: AFC North, AFC South, AFC West, AFC East, NFL, Footballguys, News, RB, WR, TE, O-Line, QB — Jason Wood @ 2:27 pm

Quarterbacks (QB)

  • Tom Brady, New England
  • Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
  • Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Snub Alert = NIL: They’re 1-2-3 in passing TDs and passer rating in the AFC, and are all in position to lead their teams to division titles. The AFC QB situation was top heavy this year, as Derek Anderson and David Garrard were also deserving; but not at the expense of the three selections.

Running Backs (RB)

  • LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
  • Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
  • Joseph Addai, Indianapolis

Snub Alert = Willis McGahee & Jamal Lewis: I keep hearing about Fred Taylor’s “Pro Bowl snub” and I’m just not seeing it. Sure, he’s averaging 5.1 yards per rush but is only 14th in yards from scrimmage with a meager 4 TDs. The real snubs were a pair of AFC North runners. McGahee has almost as many yards from scrimmage as Willie Parker but 4x the TDs (8 vs. 2) while Jamal Lewis is 9th in the league in yards with a better YPC (4.3) than either Parker or Addai. Lewis has 11 TDs to Parker’s 2.

Fullback (FB)

  • Lorenzo Neal, San Diego

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

  • Randy Moss, New England
  • Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
  • Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
  • T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati

Snub Alert = Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall & ‘Ocho Cinco’: I personally think the AFC WR selections are spot on, but a case could be made for Welker (96 catches, 9 TDs), Marshall (1,136 yards, 6 TDs) and Chad Johnson (1,265 yards, 6 TDs), too. Unfortunately for those three, it has been a historic year for WR production with Moss (19 TDs), Edwards (13 TDs) and Housh (11 TDs) all putting up huge numbers while Wayne is 2nd in the AFC in yards with an impressive 9 TDs while emerging as the go-to receiver for Peyton Manning in Marvin Harrison’s absence.

Tight End (TE)

  • Antonio Gates, San Diego
  • Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City

Snub Alert = Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Statistically Winslow and Gonzalez are close enough that one can’t argue Tony G doesn’t deserve to backup Gates (who is clearly the best in the business); but WATCHING them this year, I think the nod should’ve gone to Winslow. Gonzalez is having the quietest “big” season from a tight end in years, at least from this fan’s perspective.

Offensive Line

  • Matt Light, New England (T)
  • Jason Peters, Buffalo (T)
  • Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore (T)
  • Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh (G)
  • Logan Mankins, New England (G)
  • Kris Dielman, San Diego (G)
  • Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis (C)
  • Dan Koppen, New England (C)

Snub Alert = Joe Thomas (T), Eric Steinbach (G) & Michael Roos (T): You can argue that the Patriots line is greater than the sum of its parts; but for as long as the Pro Bowl has been around, dominant teams have been afforded multiple lineman on the roster. I’m less bothered by the trio of Patriots as I am the presence of Jon Ogden. Sure, he may be a Hall of Famer but he’s been an absolute shell of himself this year and his presence keeps two young deserving tackles, Roos and Thomas, off the roster. Similarly, Eric Steinbach has mauled people and been worth every penny Cleveland paid him; there is room for him on this roster over any of the guards selected.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

November 15, 2007

Derek Anderson: Franchise QB?

Filed under: AFC North, NFL, Footballguys, News, Fantasy, QB — Jason Wood @ 4:04 pm

Adam Schefter reported yesterday that the Cleveland Browns are considering the franchise designation on starting QB Derek Anderson.

There is obviously a lot that can happen between now and free agency, so speculation on the future of Derek Anderson remains very much in flux. BUT, this news is noteworthy for a number of reasons:

  1. Derek Anderson is a RESTRICTED free agent — The franchise designation is almost always used by teams on UNrestricted free agents as a way to keep them from leaving. In this case, Anderson is a restricted free agent, meaning the Browns have the rights to keep him regardless.  But slapping the franchise tag on Anderson would provide the Browns protection; any team signing him to an offer sheet would have to give the Browns TWO first round picks if the Browns opt not to match the deal.
  2. Derek Anderson was considered an afterthought just a few months ago — Can you talk about rags to riches? Here’s a guy who, at the start of this season, looked like the odd man out. Charlie Frye was the present. Brady Quinn was the future. And now? Anderson would be looking at TOP FIVE QB money if he got franchised. TOP FIVE money as in, Peyton Manning/Carson Palmer/Tom Brady/Donovan McNabb/Marc Bulger money.
  3. Brady Quinn’s future suddenly becomes much cloudier — I’m sure Brady Quinn is a good teammate and is happy that Anderson is helping the Browns win games, but a part of him has to lament the way things are turning out. His dream of being the hometown savior appears very much in jeopardy, and those lofty incentives built into his contract are getting harder and  harder to realize, to boot.

November 13, 2007

AFC North: Pass Happy and Loving It!

Filed under: Footballguys, AFC North, NFL, Fantasy, QB, Bengals, Browns, Steelers — Jason Wood @ 11:29 am

Thought just occurred to me today as I was looking over this weekend’s games and the resulting fantasy rankings:

Three of the four AFC North teams have elite fantasy QBs at the helm right now:

  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) — 2,020 yards/22 TDs/7 INTs = 3rd ranked QB
  • Derek Anderson (CLE) — 2,231 yards/20 TDs/9 INTs = 4th ranked QB
  • Carson Palmer (CIN) — 2,464 yards/16 TDs/10 INTs = 7th ranked QB

What’s more surprising, that a division with its history steeped in ball-control, hard-nosed football would have three big-time passers OR that Carson Palmer is the 3rd most productive passer in his own division?

October 1, 2007

Is Kyle Boller worth a pickup??

Filed under: AFC North, Strategy, NFL, Stats, News, QB, Injury, Fantasy, Ravens — Jeff Tefertiller @ 9:02 am

In 2003 and 2004, the name “Kyle Boller” sent chills up the spine of many fantasy owners like nails on a chalkboard. It was UGLY. The young passer from Cal averaged a whopping 5.6 and 5.5 yards per attempt in those two seasons. During those 27 games (in 2003 and 2004), Boller averaged one interception for every touchdown thrown.

Now, fast forward to 2006 and 2007. Boller has matured some and looks more comfortable in the pocket. He has much better weapons, 3 good receivers, a strong young running back and a top tight end. In the only games (three) that Boller has started over the last couple of years, he has atleast two scores and has 7 touchdowns with 2 interceptions.

The once-hated Boller recently signed an one-year extension that will keep Steve McNair’s understudy in Baltimore through 2008. McNair is battling a groin injury at the present time. The former Alcorn State passer has taken a lot of hits in his career and is one tough customer. But, there is a good chance he misses more time as the season progresses. In a dynasty league, Boller is a great pickup. He is a young passer in a good situation. In a redraft league, he is a good bet to see time later in the season. Now is the time to pluck him from the waiver wire if you have the roster space.

September 17, 2007

Tons of injuries this week

Week two of the NFL season saw many players integral to fantasy football nicked up …. with some worse than others.

This is by no means an exhaustive list but shows how widespread the injuries were for skill position players.

QBs:

  • Marc Bulger hurt is knee and ribs in week two. He should be ok, but keep an eye on the situation. Make sure to pick Gus up if the news changes on the severity.
  • Tarvaris Jackson injured his groin in a hard fought lss to the Detroit Lions. He was having a terrible game as it was. Brooks Bollinger is the backup.
  • Steve McNair also has a groin injury. He missed Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. His replacement, Kyle Boller, player well. In fact, many in Baltimore think Boller might give the Ravens a better chance to go far in the playoffs.
  • Chad Pennington hurt his ankle in week one against the New England Patriots. He tried to warm up on it but Kellen Clemens started in his stead and played admirably for his first career start. This could be a budding QB controversy.

RBs:

  • Rookie Ahmad Bradshaw, who is primarily a kick returner at this time, hurt his elbow in the game against the Packers. Combine this with the Jacobs injury and the Giants are very thin at running back.
  • Vernand Morency is still battling knee problems and could be out even longer.

WRs:

  • Greg Jennings practiced all week in hopes of playing but his injured hammy could not go. Now, he will sit all week in practice and should be a dreaded game time decision.
  • Andre Johnson sprained his PCL (knee) in the week two game. He has been playing so well that the MRI results will be very important.
  • Patrick Crayton, playing instead of injured Terry Glenn, broke his finger in the game against the Dolphins. It looked nasty. He went back in the game but was held without a catch.
  • Plaxico Burress re-injured his ankle in the week two game against the Packers. With the way Plax has been playing, this is a situation to monitor.
  • Burress’ teammate, Steve Smith, fractured his shoulder blade. He should be back in around a month.
  • Troy Williamson injured his hammy against the Lions.

September 11, 2007

Woe-ffensive Lines: A rough week for NFL offensive linemen

Injuries are a part of the game. And yet, their impact never really gets easier to digest, does it? Week One was particularly brutal with injuries to myriad offensive linemen. Fantasy football scoring rules may not pay much attention to the offensive line, but we fantasy football owners know full well the importance of a great offensive line in keeping our fantasy stars healthy and productive.

Let’s run through this week’s offensive line woes and their potential impact on key fantasy players:

LT Orlando Pace (STL) out for the season

Orlando Pace has been the fixture of the Rams resurgence and is one of the few remaining pieces to their Super Bowl teams of the late 90s. While he may not be the league’s best tackle, he’s in the conversation year in, year out. Unfortunately he tore his labrum and rotator cuff in Week One and is done for the season. This marks the 2nd consecutive season season Pace’s year ended prematurely. HC Scott Linehan hasn’t decided on a course of action yet, but the most likely scenario involves moving RT Alex Barron to the left side and putting Adam Goldberg at RT.

Fantasy Impact:

  • Last year, the Rams had Todd Steussie as a fallback plan, this year they don’t [Steussie is currently injured]
  • QB Marc Bulger is now playing behind a fairly inexperienced line, and may face more pressure
  • RB Steven Jackson won’t have his best offensive lineman opening holes for him
  • TE Randy McMichael may be forced to stay in and block much more than fantasy owners hoped
  • FB Brian Leonard will probably be on the field more, but may see less offensive touches

LT Jonathan Ogden (BAL) re-injures his toe

After sitting out the entire offseason and preseason schedule, Hall of Fame LT Jon Ogden was in the lineup for Week One only to pull himself from the game with toe pain; the same turf toe that’s bothered him going on nine months now. Ogden was replaced by Adam Terry at LT (moving over from RT) while rookie Marshall Yanda stepped into the RT spot.

Fantasy Impact:

  • We don’t know the extent of Ogden’s injury yet, but it’s probably safe to assume he misses a game or two
  • Although a healthy Ogden is an elite talent, the Ravens have prepared for his eventual retirement
  • Supplemental draft choice Jared Gaither looked excellent playing LT during the preseason
  • The Terry/Yanda swap also has potential
  • QB Steve McNair isn’t as mobile as he used to be; the severity of Ogden’s turf toe will only be measured once we see how his replacement handles the pass rush
  • RB Willis McGahee probably gets a minor downgrade, although I think Ravens fans would tell you that Ogden wasn’t being counted on 100% by the team anyway

RT Jon Jansen (WAS) dislocates ankle; lost for the season

RT Jon Jansen badly dislocated his ankle in Week One and is lost for the season; Jason LaConfora is reporting Jansen has been placed on injured reserve (IR).  Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped into the game and played sufficiently well in Jansen’s place. But according to team officials, it looks like veteran Todd Wade will assume the starting RT role from here on out, allowing rookie Heyer to learn the ropes and serve as the team’s emergency/swing tackle.

Fantasy Impact:

  • Losing a tackle is never a good thing, but the Redskins are better off with Chris Samuels back from injury and Jansen out, if they had to be short one of them
  • Wade struggled in his move to guard this preseason but is a natural and proven tackle; there won’t be as much falloff as some expect
  • The addition of G Jason Kendall in early August plus a healthy Samuels should obfuscate some of the concern here
  • Don’t downgrade the Redskins offensive players at this juncture

C Al Johnson (ARI) injures his knee; C Chucky Okobi signs as replacement

Al Johnson hurt his knee against the 49ers on Monday Night. Johnson had a solid preseason and was making all the line calls for a rebuilt Cardinals offensive line. While the severity of Johnson’s injury has yet to be formally announced, the team moved quickly to bring in veteran Chucky Okobi as his fill-in. Okobi was primarily a backup in Pittsburgh and played for Cardinals HC Ken Whisenhunt and AHC Russ Grimm.

Fantasy Impact:

  • The Cardinals are “lucky” that Okobi was available; he knows the line calls inside and out and should start immediately
  • Johnson is a good center, but he’s not a difference maker; and Okobi has experience on excellent, playoff-caliber lines

C Jeremy Newberry (OAK) injuries his hamstring; out “a few weeks”

Jeremy Newberry hurt his hamstring this week and is on record expecting to miss a “couple of weeks.” The team expects to start Jake Grove in his place.

Fantasy Impact:

  • Grove has been a disappointment after being highly coveted out of college
  • Grove lost the center competition to Newberry in a spirited camp battle
  • Mild downgrade of LaMont Jordan
  • Mild downgrade of Josh McCown

Agree/Disagree? Curious to hear your thoughts…

Charlie Frye: Traded to Seattle

Filed under: NFC West, AFC North, NFL, Footballguys, News, Seahawks, QB, Fantasy, Browns — Jason Wood @ 2:11 pm

I told you that Charlie Frye simply had no place in Cleveland after Week One’s mid-game benching. The coaches simply couldn’t have put him back on the field and convinced his teammates it was the right move. That’s unfortunate for a young passer who many thought could be as good as some of the other MAC products in recent years (i.e., Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington).

Today, the Browns traded Charlie Frye to the Seattle Seahawks for a 6th round draft pick. Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer makes the point this move will allow Seneca Wallace to play more receiver; which may be the case although I’m not so sure I expect Wallace to give up his QB2 role so easily. From what we’ve seen of Wallace, he’s a better QB than Frye; and at a minimum it will take Frye some time to learn Mike Holmgren’s complicated offense.

Fantasy Relevance:

  • QB Brady Quinn gets ever closer to taking over the helm in Cleveland
  • QB Charlie Frye has the potential to rebuild confidence in a proven, pressure-free situation
  • QB Derek Anderson probably gets a start (or two or three) until the Browns are willing to go with Quinn
  • QB/WR Seneca Wallace should see more offensive snaps; perhaps filling the WR3/WR4 role depending on how long D.J. Hackett is out for [which would move up Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram]

September 10, 2007

Benching Charlie Frye: Makes no sense to me…

Filed under: AFC North, NFL, Footballguys, Coaching, QB, Fantasy, Browns — Jason Wood @ 1:36 pm

OK, bear with me. I realize that fantasy football owners probably could care less whether Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson are at the helm of the Browns because neither are going to see the light of day in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues. But the starting QB situation is germane for several obvious reasons:

  • Braylon Edwards — Drafted as a top 20-25 wideout in most leagues
  • Kellen Winslow — Drafted at a top 5-8 tight end in most leagues
  • Jamal Lewis — Drafted as a top 20 RB in most leagues

While no one should be surprised the Browns got waxed by the Steelers in the Week One opener, as a football fan I was baffled at Romeo Crennel’s decision to bench Charlie Frye in the middle of the 2nd quarter. I get that Charlie Frye has no business being an NFL starting QB. I also get that on the margin, Derek Anderson appeared to play better. All that said, I found the decision to pull Frye just incredulous. I mean, Crennel and Chuds spent the entire offseason vacillating between Frye and Anderson. Then when it looks to everyone that Quinn should probably be thrown to the wolves because a green, rookie Quinn is better than either, Crennel and Phil Savage go out of their way to “teach the kid a lesson” and keep him out of the starting lineup.

But the point is, they supposedly spent all preseason evaluating Frye and Anderson. Then, after one half of the first game against a dominant defense/division rival; they change their minds!?!?? To me that sends such a strong message that the coaches are flying blind; that they have no clue and they themselves are incapable of evaluating the QB position on their own team. Pulling Frye like that essentially makes him a eunuch. How can they possibly justify putting Frye into another game at this point? They can’t. So why not just trade/release him?

We’re having an interesting discussion about this in the Shark Pool today. While many see my point of view, others think it was a move Crennel had to make.

jurb26 writes:

Did you watch the game? The guy looked absolutely lost out there. I didn’t see a single pass that was on target and he had worse pocket awareness than Grossman vs. SD. Clev had 35 yds of total offense in Frye’s 7 drives and 2 turnovers, 1 Int (which was god awful) and 1 fumble. They were down 17-0 on top of it. Sometimes bringing in a fresh QB sparks up the offense. In Anderson’s 1st drive, he took Clev 45 yds down field (this was the 1st time the even crossed mid field!) and put them in scoring position until he was sacked for a 10 yd loss and fumbled. So, it appears it was not a bad decision.

Nxmehta sees eye-to-eye with me, and further elaborates on what this benching might do to the Browns already fragile locker room:

What really scares me is the effect this move will have on locker room morale. I mean the Browns already have a hard enough time convincing themselves that they can win, but when the leadership shows that they can’t steer the ship in the first minutes of the first game, then how are the players supposed to believe that they can win? If you look at the postgame interviews from the official site you can see it all over their faces. Braylon Edwards was asked straight up if he thought that the team had the mental toughness to bounce back for next week. He started out saying well, “if you asked me last year i would say we’re really fragile and no, but this year we have new guys.” You could clearly that he was shaken. Charlie Frye’s interview was even worse- he looked more lost and fragile than he did on the field.

What’s your opinion? If Anderson gets the start in Week Two and stinks up the joint, can the Browns go back to Frye without completely losing the team? Do they have to go with Quinn if/when Anderson struggles? Would putting Quinn in this early be the wrong move even if he’s the team’s best QB?

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