The NFL draft is almost here and that means our little blogging vacation has come to a close. From this point forward, expect regular posts from here until next year’s free agency. My fingers are tired already!

Today’s new is the signing of OT Jake Long to a contract days before the official start of the NFL draft. Long signed a 5-year, $57mm deal with $30 million in guarantees. Long is a 6′7″, 313-pound tackle from the University if Michigan and was among a handful of top prospects throughout the pre-draft process. He’s considered a high character guy with sound fundamentals and, perhaps most importantly, a mean streak on the field.

The Dolphins have been in negotiations with Long’s camp for almost two weeks, yet today’s announcement still comes as a surprise to some. A few days ago, Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland appeared to have made a slip of the tongue when addressing the media:

“This guy is going to be — you hope that he’s a pillar of your defense for a long time.”

Combine that with Bill Parcells’ penchant for defensive difference makers, and it seemed improbable to some that an offensive tackle would be their choice. So why DID the Fins sign Jake Long instead of one of the much ballyhooed defenders like Vernon Gholston, Glen Dorsey or Chris Long? I think something Peter King (of SI.com) said made the most sense. In speaking to Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio today, King mentioned that Parcells is wary of committing the kind of dollars that come with the first overall pick to a player that could end up being a bust. In Parcells’ view, according to King, Jake Long has the lowest chance of failure because of the hit rate offensive tackles have had as high draft picks. King pointed to Robert Gallery, who was a bust for Oakland at tackle but ended up having “an above average year” at guard in 2007. In other words, even if Jake Long doesn’t turn out to be a great offensive tackle, the team could still move him inside and potentially have a cornerstone guard for years to come. The same couldn’t be said for any of the other players considered worthy of the 1st overall pick.

The St. Louis Rams are on the clock…

It’s been a stressful few days for Patriots fans. While they were steeled against losing the likes of Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, Donte Stallworth and Eugene Wilson, no Patriots fan wanted to see Randy “23 TDs” Moss walk out the door. Today, Adam Schefter is reporting that Moss has agreed to a new 3-year, $27mm deal.

So ends a curious few weeks of speculation. When the Patriots opted not to tender Moss with the franchise designation, many (myself included) thought a long-term deal was already in place; but couldn’t be formally announced until the beginning of free agency. Yet, when the clock struck midnight Moss and the Patriots were eerily quiet about the negotiations.

As far as we know, Moss didn’t agree to visit other teams but that didn’t stop the paranoia from flowing over the last few days. Some of the more outlandish rumors included:

• Moss wanted to reunite with Daunte Culpepper as a packaged deal somewhere
• That the Eagles were going to sign him because Moss and McNabb were seen buddying up at the NFL event in Disney
• The Brett Favre was basing his decision on retirement on whether the Packers could acquire Moss

Yeah…it’s been one of those weeks.

While the full terms of the new contract aren’t out yet, it’s safe to say that both sides deserve credit for this one.

• Moss took less to stay -- Moss could’ve EASILY gotten more than 3 years, $27mm from another team, if he was willing to go to a non-contender flush with cash. If you don’t believe that, take a look at the 4-years, $16mm Andre Davis got to re-sign in Houston, or the 6-years, $42mm Bernard Berrian nabbed from Minnesota, or the 6-years, $30mm deal Jerry Porter got to sign with Jacksonville.
• New England didn’t panic – We shouldn’t be surprised when New England plays it cool, but how many teams would’ve let their prized free agent sit out on the open market amidst the buying frenzy we’ve seen the last few days?

Fantasy owners can breathe a sign of relief

No one should expect Tom Brady to throw 50 TDs nor should they expect Moss to catch 23 scores again in 2008. But today’s signing does put a floor in the Patriots offense (precluding major injury) and all but assures that both Moss and Brady will be among the top players at their positions come fantasy draft time. Neither is going to come cheaply this year (unlike last season), but that’s a discussion for another day.

Lest anyone think Bill Parcells was going to take a measured approach toward rebuilding the woeful Miami Dolphins, think again. In what has to be the busiest single day in the history of NFL free agency, Parcells and his staff have signed a flurry of players in an attempt to right a ship that finished 1-15 a season ago. The Dolphins had approximately $40mm under the cap to spend; and Parcells appears ready to use every last bit of it. Today’s signings ranged from veteran locker room guys (e.g., Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan) to potential Pro Bowlers (e.g., Calvin Pace). And considering the team’s cap situation, Parcells probably isn’t done yet.

A Recap of Bill’s Frenzied Friday

LB Calvin Pace — Rated as one of the top players at his position, Pace is exactly the kind of player Parcells’ covets. Pace is big (a converted defensive end) and thrived as the rush ‘backer in the Cardinals 3-4 last year. Although this isn’t official yet, several reports have the Fins giving Pace $20mm guaranteed. The addition of Pace raises questions about whether the team plans on keeping Joey Porter around. NOTE: Despite earlier reports, Pace did not sign with Miami but instead signed a 6-year, $42mm deal with the Jets.

OG Justin Smiley — The Dolphins signed Smiley to a 5-year, $25mm deal including $9mm in guarantees. Smiley has been a starter for most of his career (in San Francisco) and significantly upgrades the interior of the Dolphins line. Smiley helped open holes for Frank Gore and will likely slide in between center Samson Satele and LT L.J. Shelton.

DT Randy Starks — Considering how much defensive tackles are netting at the start of free agency, this signing seems like a downright steal. The Dolphins signed the 24-year old tackle to a 5-year, $21mm deal with $7mm in guarantees. Starks may not be a star (he lost his starting job in Tennessee to Tony Brown) but he’s got the size (6′3″, 314 pounds) and technique to emerge in the Fins scheme.

QB Josh McCown — McCown was a part-time starter in Arizona and Oakland, and may find himself starting in Week One for Miami depending on what else the Dolphins do this preseason. Given a 2-year, $6.25mm contract; McCown is very much a safety valve until John Beck (or someone else not currently on the roster) are ready to take over full-time. This isn’t a major financial commitment, nor should it be considering McCown has never finished a season with a passer rating above 74.9.

WR Ernest Wilford — Wilford was deemed expendable by the Jaguars after the acquisitions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; but he quickly found a new home in Miami signing a 4-year, $13mm deal with $6mm in guarantees. Last year, Wilford caught 45 passes for 518 yards while scoring three times. He’s not a difference maker per se, but his addition will help stabilize the intermediate passing game. Wilford is a big (6′4″, 218 pounds) receiver with loads of starting experience, and will compliment the speedy Ted Ginn Jr.

TE Sean Ryan — Ryan is another long-time Parcells favorite. Signed to a one-year deal, this is more about bringing in a high character guy that Parcells thinks will help the locker room as well as special teams. Ryan isn’t going to be asked to do much offensively; he has a whopping 9 career receptions in four seasons. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NT Jason Ferguson – Ferguson just didn’t fit into Wade Phillips attacking scheme in Dallas, but should have a place in Dallas’ system. The Cowboys traded Ferguson to Miami today, reuniting him with Parcells for the third time in his 12-year career. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These moves probably are just the beginning as Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and the coaching staff look to fundamentally alter the DNA of this team and return the Dolphins to prominence.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

When today’s deadline ended for franchise tag designations, the word spread like wildfire that Randy Moss was NOT tagged by the Patriots; despite catching 23 TDs this season and helping the Patriots to the best offensive output in league history. While many (myself included) expected Moss to be tagged, it now seems that the lack of a tag may not be what it seems.

According to NFL rules, a player can’t have their contract re-done more than once in a calendar year and so, it’s possible that Randy Moss has ALREADY COME TO A NEW AGREEMENT but, because of the aforementioned rule, cannot be officially announced until February 29th.

While we won’t know officially for another week, it seems incomprehensible that the Patriots would’ve seriously allowed Randy Moss to enter unrestricted free agency without some protection. After all, he did enjoy (almost) the best season by a WR in league history.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are unlikely to tag anyone as their free agent outlook is rather minimal.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have the first overall pick and plenty of needs, but are unlikely to commit a lot of money to any of their free agents. They likely want to retain a number of them (Rex Hadnot, Yeremiah Bell) but none deserve the kind of financial commitment a tag would involve.

New England Patriots

WR Randy Moss

The Patriots acquired Randy Moss last offseason and, to Moss’ credit, he took a one-year deal to prove himself. Well, an 18-1 record and an NFL record 23 TD receptions later, the Pats are in a difficult bargaining position. It seems absurd to believe the Patriots would let Moss walk, or that he would want to leave a team that allowed him to return to HOF form and has a great chance of getting him a ring. BUT…he took a discount last season and is going to want to be paid (justifiably so). Look for the Patriots to tag Moss with the idea of signing him to a long-term deal before the start of the 2008 season.

Note: Some people have asked why I don’t have All Pro CB Asante Samuel listed as a 2nd option. Simply put, Samuel was tagged last year and he agreed to sign the tender under the condition the Patriots couldn’t tag him again this season. Either the Patriots give Samuel a long-term contract or he’s free to walk. 

New York Jets

The Jets don’t have anyone that likely warrants their tag designations. LB Victor Hobson, S Erik Coleman, and OT Adrian Jones are all probably in line to return but for nowhere near franchise or transition tag dollars.

The Giants are heading to the Super Bowl, earning a rematch against the undefeated Patriots. No matter where your personal allegiances lie, you have to give the Giants credit for a hard earned berth. They won three straight road games against three division champs. They beat the 1st and 2nd seeds, avenging three of their in-season losses in the process. Along the way, the Giants have won an NFL record 10 straight road games.

No one, even the most ardent Giants fan, would argue the Patriots are a heavy favorite. Vegas puts the game a -11 and, if history is any indication, the line tends to grow in the favorite’s direction as the game approaches.

Now that the matchup is set, the discussion has turned to just how big of an upset would it be if the Giants beat the Patriots in two weeks?

Before we attempt to answer that question, we need to recognize that it’s subjective. Not everyone agrees about the best team in history, the best QB in history or the best RB in history…so we can’t expect everyone to agree about the greatest Super Bowl upset in league history, either. That said, here are my thoughts on the matter:

The Point Spread Approach

Personally, I don’t think point spreads are the best arbiter of this kind of discussion; but a lot of people do put faith in the betting line. To that end, the Giants are currently 11-point underdogs. If the spread holds at 11 points, it wouldn’t come close to matching the New York Jets in Super Bowl III. Joe Namath’s team were 17-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. More recently, the New England Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and won outright. In fact, the Giants would be tied for 4th place in SB history, according to point spread:

• Super Bowl III: New York Jets (+18) over Baltimore Colts
• Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots (+14) over St. Louis Rams
• Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs (+12) over Minnesota Vikings
• Super Bowl XXXII: Denver Broncos (+11) over Green Bay Packers
• Super Bowl XLII???: New York Giants (+11) over New England Patriots
  

The Margin of Victory Approach

Margin of victory is an valuable tool in comparing teams. In a league where the average margin of victory is slightly more than a field goal, margin of victory helps illustrate the best teams; teams that can win handily; whether that be by virtue of an explosive offense or a stifling defense. As you might imagine, teams with a high margin of victory traditionally beat opponents with lower margins of victory; that’s basic math.

Key Talking Points:

• The 2007 New England Patriots set an NFL record for margin of victory (19.7 PPG)
• The 2007 New York Giants margin of victory (1.4 PPG) is the 3rd lowest in Super Bowl history
• 2/3rds of Super Bowl winners have had a better regular season margin of victory than their opponent
• 1/3rd (14 of 41) Super Bowl winners have had a smaller margin of victory than their opponent

Here is a list of the Super Bowl champions that had smaller margins of victory than their opponents:

As you can see, the Jets victory of the Colts stands atop this list, while (surprise, surprise), the Patriots victory over the Rams is a close second.

Now consider the implied differential if New York beat New England:

• New England Margin of Victory = 19.7 PPG
• New York Margin of Victory = 1.4 PPG
• Implied Differential = (18.3)
  

This would be the most surprising SB victory, BY MORE THAN A FACTOR OF 2X THE PREVIOUS RECORD.

The Winning Percentage Approach

A lot has been made about how we need to “throw the records out” once the playoffs begin. Yet, history shows us that’s really not logical. When push comes to shove, the team with the better regular season record USUALLY wins the Super Bowl; it’s that simple.

Key Talking Points:

• The New England Patriots, the first 16-0 team in history, obviously had a 1.000 winning percentage
• The New York Giants (10-6), had a 0.625 winning percentage
• 10 of 41 (24.3%) Super Bowl champs had a worse winning percentage than their opponent

Here is a list of Super Bowl champs that had worse winning percentages than their opponents:

Interestingly, the Packers’ victory over the Raiders in Super Bowl II tops this list [they ranked 3rd based on margin of victory differential], and those were followed by New England over the Rams [2nd in our margin analysis] and Namath’s Jets over the Colts [1st place in the margin analysis].

Now, consider what a Giants victory would imply:

• New England Patriots (16-0) = 1.000% winning percentage
• New York Giants (10-6) = 62.5% winning percentage
• Implied Differential = (-37.5%)
  

Thinking of this another way, no SB champ in HISTORY has beaten an opponent with more than 3.5 more wins in the regular season, yet were the Giants to win they would have done so finishing SIX GAMES BEHIND the Patriots in the standings.

CONCLUSION

It’s difficult if not impossible to compare eras. In this case, the earliest Super Bowls pitted two entirely different leagues against one another, and football historians would say, as a result, their regular season accomplishments weren’t apples to apples. Therefore, some will always contend that Joe Namath’s New York Jets victory of the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III was the greatest upset in professional football history. The most contemporary upset would be the Patriots victory over the Rams [which ironically started the Patriots dynastic run we’re now dissecting]. By any objective measure, a Giants victory against the Patriots this year would be right up there with those two upsets. To my mind, based on the differential in their respective finishes this season, it WOULD be THE biggest upset in Super Bowl history. But even if you disagree, it’s hard to argue it wouldn’t be AMONG the biggest upsets.

It should come as no surprise that Tony Sparano is, by all accounts, on the verge of being named the Dolphins new head coach. According to several reports, GM Jeff Ireland took one of Wayne Huizenga’s private jets to Dallas today to pick up Sparano and make the hiring official after weeks of conjecture.

Sparano’s name surfaced almost immediately after Bill Parcells took over football operations. Sparano, who held the title of Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line in Dallas this year was a holdover from Parcells’ staff. In 2006, he was the co-coordinator with Todd Haley, and was heavily involved in the play-calling.

Whether this is a sound hire or not, time will tell. But its one that fits into the Parcells mold. Sparano is a tough guy by reputation, believes in a punishing ground attack and controlling the time of possession. And he certainly is a known commodity for both Parcells and the Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland.

Bill Parcells isn’t wasting much time making moves in Miami:

• Cam Cameron was fired, becoming the 9th NFL head coach since 1990 to be fired after one season
• Hired Jeff Ireland away from the Cowboys to be the new GM
• Re-signed Ricky Williams for the 2008 season

While these moves were noteworthy, they set the table for the larger tasks at hand:

1. Hire a new head coach (my bet is on Cowboys running coordinator Tony Sparano)
2. Build a new assistant coaching staff
3. Assess the current roster from top to bottom
4. Figure out their draft board and plan for scenarios to possibly trade the 1st overall pick

Randy Moss just completed an insane 23-TD season; breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season mark in the process. As it stands, Moss also broke Rice’s record for most fantasy points by a WR in a season:

As you can see, Rice’s 22-TD season wasn’t even the record holder (it ranked 8th prior to Moss’ 2007 campaign); but rather it was Rice’s 1995 season (122 catches for 1,849 yards and 15 TDs) that was the former standard bearer. Moss’ 2007 numbers give him a 2.9 point edge using standard fantasy scoring.

While this is AMONG the best receiving seasons in football history, it’s really not the best FANTASY season. Remember, the year Rice caught 22 TD receptions, he only played 12 games due to the strike. Imagine what his numbers might have looked like over a full 16-game season.

Here is a list of the best fantasy seasons on a POINTS PER GAME basis (minimum: 12 games played)

Three things to chew on from this list:

1. Jerry Rice’s 22-TD season season is now back in its rightful place as the best ever
2. Lance Alworth’s brilliance comes to the forefront (he has three of the top 7 seasons all time in FPPG)
3. Moss’ 2007 season stands 3rd in PPG; and is indeed AMONG the best ever

Well, it got interesting for a bit but when the dust settled on tonight’s game, the New England Patriots finished off the first ever perfect season in the modern (16-game era).

• The Patriots got their perfect record
• The Patriots broke the single season scoring record
• Tom Brady got the single-season TD record (he ended with 50 TDs)
• Randy Moss got his single-season TD reception record (an astounding 23 TDs)

A lot of credit has to go to the New York Giants who played their starters the entire game and had a 12-point lead in the 2nd half; all despite having nothing to gain from a victory. But, even more credit goes to the Patriots who, facing their largest 2nd half deficit of the season, rattled off 22 unanswered points on route to a 38-35 victory.

Before everyone starts debating whether or not the Patriots are the best team ever, let’s let them win the Super Bowl. At this point, anything short of a Super Bowl would have to be considered a monumental disappointment for all concerned. Call the Pats the best REGULAR SEASON team ever; but recognize that neither they nor their fans really care about that distinction if it doesn’t come with a 4th ring a month from now.

Prior to the start of the 2006 season, Jamal Lewis returned to the Baltimore Ravens on a one-year deal. Despite rushing for 2,000 yards a few seasons before, Lewis had seen relatively no interest in free agency and returned, hat in hand, to the team that wouldn’t commit to him. Of course, his injuries, lack of conditioning and jail term all played a role. Lewis made a bet that his one-year deal would lead to free agent riches; but then he posted the following numbers:

• 314 carries
• 1,132 yards
• 3.6 yards per rush
• 9 rushing TDs
• 18 receptions
• 115 receiving yards

Those numbers weren’t horrible, but they were hardly the stuff of an elite franchise runner and, as  a result, Lewis entered last offseason in a similar position. Many teams wondered if his best days were behind him. He found a home in division rival Cleveland, thanks to GM Phil Savage (who scouted Lewis while a personnel executive in Baltimore); but again only for a 1-year deal.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A SEASON MAKES

The Browns are on the verge of a potential playoff berth and Jamal Lewis has enjoyed a resurgent season:

• 14 games
• 272 carries
• 1,176 yards
• 4.3 yards per rush
• 9 TDs
• 29 receptions
• 247 yards receiving
• 2 receiving TDs

Lewis posted his best yardage, yards per rush, TDs and receiving numbers since his magical 2,000-yard season in 2003. As a result? He will either sign a long-term deal to stay in Cleveland OR find himself a new home with a big upfront guarantee.  Regardless of what you think of Lewis as a person or player, you have to give him credit for having enough confidence in his own abilities to play for a one-year deal in consecutive years. Looks like the 2nd time was the charm.

Lots of chatter around the football world today about Bill Parcells willingness to trade the Dolphins 1st overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft:

 ”Any team that has won one game, or hopefully two games this year, needs a volume of players,” Parcells said. “But getting someone to be interested in that No. 1 pick is not as simple as just saying, ‘OK, we’re going to trade the pick.’“First, you need to have someone who wants it … I would consider anything.”

As is often the case with these kinds of stories, Parcells carefully crafted comments have been misconstrued by interested parties. A lot of Dolphins fans (including many on our message boards) have interpreted this to mean Parcells IS GOING TO trade the 1st pick. Yet, that’s not at all what he’s saying here.

ANY negotiator worth his weight is going to leave as many options open for as long as he can. Less than 12 hours into the job of running football operations for a 1-14 team, it would’ve been absolutely laughable had Parcells NOT kept the door open for trading the pick. If he has any hope of recouping real value for the pick, he has to convince some other GM that it’s not going to come cheaply.

Whether the Dolphins will trade the pick or not, neither Bill Parcells, Wayne Huizenga or anyone else in the world has come close to making that decision yet. Let’s hear Bill come out and say this at the end of March; THEN it will be a newsworthy story.

Credit to our forum member pizzatyme for throwing out this little nugget today:

The Colts became the fourth team to win more games in a season following their Super Bowl victory. The other three all repeated as Super Bowl Champs:

• 1974 & 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers
• 1988 & 1989 San Francisco 49ers
• 1997 & 1998 Denver Broncos

Now for as interesting a statistical nugget as that may be, credit to forum member redman who quickly threw out the obvious monkey wrench (aka the Patriots):

In each of the three other instances, the repeating SB champ had either the best record in their conference, or the best in the league. The Colts obviously don’t this year, which is no surprise given how much of an outlier the Pats’ season has been anyway.

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Tom Brady, New England
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Snub Alert = NIL: They’re 1-2-3 in passing TDs and passer rating in the AFC, and are all in position to lead their teams to division titles. The AFC QB situation was top heavy this year, as Derek Anderson and David Garrard were also deserving; but not at the expense of the three selections.

Running Backs (RB)

• LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
• Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
• Joseph Addai, Indianapolis

Snub Alert = Willis McGahee & Jamal Lewis: I keep hearing about Fred Taylor’s “Pro Bowl snub” and I’m just not seeing it. Sure, he’s averaging 5.1 yards per rush but is only 14th in yards from scrimmage with a meager 4 TDs. The real snubs were a pair of AFC North runners. McGahee has almost as many yards from scrimmage as Willie Parker but 4x the TDs (8 vs. 2) while Jamal Lewis is 9th in the league in yards with a better YPC (4.3) than either Parker or Addai. Lewis has 11 TDs to Parker’s 2.

Fullback (FB)

• Lorenzo Neal, San Diego

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Randy Moss, New England
• Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
• Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati

Snub Alert = Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall & ‘Ocho Cinco’: I personally think the AFC WR selections are spot on, but a case could be made for Welker (96 catches, 9 TDs), Marshall (1,136 yards, 6 TDs) and Chad Johnson (1,265 yards, 6 TDs), too. Unfortunately for those three, it has been a historic year for WR production with Moss (19 TDs), Edwards (13 TDs) and Housh (11 TDs) all putting up huge numbers while Wayne is 2nd in the AFC in yards with an impressive 9 TDs while emerging as the go-to receiver for Peyton Manning in Marvin Harrison’s absence.

Tight End (TE)

• Antonio Gates, San Diego
• Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City

Snub Alert = Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Statistically Winslow and Gonzalez are close enough that one can’t argue Tony G doesn’t deserve to backup Gates (who is clearly the best in the business); but WATCHING them this year, I think the nod should’ve gone to Winslow. Gonzalez is having the quietest “big” season from a tight end in years, at least from this fan’s perspective.

Offensive Line

• Matt Light, New England (T)
• Jason Peters, Buffalo (T)
• Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore (T)
• Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh (G)
• Logan Mankins, New England (G)
• Kris Dielman, San Diego (G)
• Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis (C)
• Dan Koppen, New England (C)

Snub Alert = Joe Thomas (T), Eric Steinbach (G) & Michael Roos (T): You can argue that the Patriots line is greater than the sum of its parts; but for as long as the Pro Bowl has been around, dominant teams have been afforded multiple lineman on the roster. I’m less bothered by the trio of Patriots as I am the presence of Jon Ogden. Sure, he may be a Hall of Famer but he’s been an absolute shell of himself this year and his presence keeps two young deserving tackles, Roos and Thomas, off the roster. Similarly, Eric Steinbach has mauled people and been worth every penny Cleveland paid him; there is room for him on this roster over any of the guards selected.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

• Ronnie Brown…IR
• Jesse Chatman…Banged Up
• Ricky Williams…IR in the blink of an eye

So who is going to carry the load for the woeful Miami Dolphins at RB?

Could it be recently re-signed Samkon Gado?

Your guess is as good as mine. But the fact Gado was re-signed and has practiced with the 1st team this week tells you all you need to know about Patrick Cobbs and Lorenzo Booker.

I’m not sure if it’s officially the shortest return in NFL history, but it HAS to be right up there. For those of you who missed the Steelers/Dolphins MNF debacle last night, you also missed the entirety of Ricky Williams’ NFL return. Williams was granted reinstatement by the NFL earlier this month and then, thanks in part to an injury to Jesse Chatman, saw his first action last night.

• 6 carries
• 15 yards
• 2.5 yards per carry
• 1.5 fantasy points

Williams hurt his chest after being stepped on by the Steelers L. Timmons; and is now done for the year. This is just the latest in a string of disastrous developments for the Dolphins and, perhaps more importantly, may signal the official end of Ricky Williams mercurial NFL career.

OK, long-time Footballguys subscribers know I’m an Eagles fan and season ticket holder. While I’m disappointed with the way this season has unfolded, and respect the Patriots as much as the next guy, I was floored to see today’s point spread:

• 23.5 POINTS

Granted, the Eagles are likely without Donovan McNabb (there’s a surprise) and are on the road against arguably the most dominant team of the modern era. But according to ESPN, this is the LARGEST point spread in league history (ex-expansion teams). The Eagles are 5-5 and rank in the top 10 both offensively (6th) and defensively (7th) in the league.

Oh the humanity. While I highly doubt the Eagles can win the game; I surely hope they “shock the world” and reset expectations for just how dominant the Patriots are.

Randy Moss is, needless to say, having a renaissance year where he once again looks like the league’s best receiver (by a wide margin0 after several disappointing years in Minnesota and Oakland. One of our message board contributors asked the question: What is the gap between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss?

dgreen: Jerry Rice IS the greatest WR of all time. This thread isn’t to claim otherwise.

However, for a long time, Rice has been the G.O.A.T. by a pretty large margin over the next guy. “The next guy” tends to be Don Hutson in many minds, but there is at least some argument about who is “the next guy”. For awhile, Randy Moss was viewed as “the next guy” and a legitimate contender to Rice down the road. Then he went to Oakland and people started to even question his HOF worthiness. Now in NE, he is looking like what we always knew he could be: a contender to Rice.

So, what’s the gap here? How much can Moss close that gap? How good of a chance does Moss have to make a move on Rice for GOAT?

Regardless of what you personally think about Randy Moss, his value to the team, his work ethic, etc…it’s impossible to deny that STATISTICALLY he’s among the very best to ever play the position. But how do you measure Moss’ career against the someone that many feel is the best PLAYER (regardless of position) in the modern era?

I think when you consider career accomplishments, importance to the game, work ethic, attitude, longevity, there are MILES between Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. But to dgreen’s question, how far away is Moss statistically?

Randy is currently playing in his 10th season. Through nine games he’s tallied:

• 56 receptions
• 924 yards
• 12 TDs

If we’re to assume Moss maintains his current pace to finish out the year, he would amass:

• 100 receptions
• 1,643 yards
• 21 TDs

Now let’s compare where Moss’ projected career numbers stand against Jerry Rice’s numbers through 10 seasons:

Career Receiving Stats (through 10 seasons)

As you can see, Rice was quite a bit ahead of Moss through 10 seasons. When you consider the unprecedented longevity that Rice enjoyed, too, it seems pretty safe to say that Randy Moss is really no threat to Jerry Rice’s statistical accomplishments.

In case anyone was wondering if the 72 Dolphins are officially sweating their place in NFL history, we got the answer this week as Don Shula (who coached that Dolphins team) came out of his self-imposed media hiatus to wave a finger at the Patriots and the validity of their 2007 accomplishments:

“The Spygate thing has diminished what they’ve accomplished,” Shula said in an interview with the New York Daily News. “You would hate to have that attached to your accomplishments. They’ve got it.”

Belichick was fined $500,000 and the Patriots were fined $250,000 and lost a first-round draft pick for videotaping the Jets’ opposing sideline during the teams’ season-opening game.

“That tells you the seriousness or significance of what they found,” Shula said, according to the Daily News. “I guess you got the same thing as putting an asterisk by Barry Bonds’ home run record.

Look, regardless of whether you agree with Shula you have to admit that it’s pretty hard to stomach the guy saying all this as though he’s unbiased. Call me crazy, but somehow I don’t think Shula would’ve made the same comments had the Steelers or Raiders been the one holding onto a nostalgic record of being the lone undefeated team in the SB era. Do you?