All world defensive force Shawne Merriman announced his intention to undergo surgery to repair his two torn knee ligaments; and will be lost for the 2008 season. In many ways, this seemed an inevitability after Merriman was told by several of the country’s best doctors that surgery was a necessity. Despite the corroborating medical opinions, Merriman attempted to play through the injuries and started for the Chargers in their Week One loss to the Panthers. Unfortunately, the pain was too much for Merriman and he’s done a 180 on the need for surgery.
A.J. Smith was understandly somber about the news:
“Shawne informed me he did not feel right and thought it best to shut it down,” Chargers general manager A.J. Smith said in a statement. “The road to winning the AFC West just got more difficult, but not impossible. Nothing is impossible. Shawne is a great player and an inspirational leader. He will be missed. We wish him a successful surgery and a speedy recovery.”
Fantasy owners are no doubt dejected as Merriman was the key cog in a consensus top-3 fantasy defense.
Three pass rushers were drafted in the top ten this year — Chris Long (St. Louis), Vernon Gholston (NYJ), and Derrick Harvey (Jacksonville). From 1996 to 2007, twenty-two outside linebackers or defensive ends were selected in the top ten of the draft. Over that span we’ve seen incredible performances by some pass rushers (Simeon Rice, Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers) and we’ve seen some big time busts (Cedric Jones, Jamal Reynolds, Jamal Anderson). But what happens on average?
Year Player Pos Team Pick Games Sacks
2007 Jamaal Anderson DE atl 8 16 0.0
2007 Gaines Adams DE tam 4 16 6.0
2006 Ernie Sims LB det 9 16 0.5
2006 A.J. Hawk LB gnb 5 16 3.5
2006 Mario Williams DE htx 1 16 4.5
2003 Terrell Suggs LB rav 10 16 12.0
2002 Julius Peppers DE car 2 12 12.0
2001 Justin Smith DE cin 4 15 8.5
2001 Jamal Reynolds DE gnb 10 6 2.0
2001 Richard Seymour DE nwe 6 13 3.0
2001 Andre Carter DE sfo 7 15 6.5
2000 LaVar Arrington LB was 2 16 4.0
2000 Courtney Brown DE cle 1 16 4.5
1999 Chris Claiborne LB det 9 15 1.5
1998 Andre Wadsworth DE crd 3 16 5.0
1998 Greg Ellis DE dal 8 16 3.0
1998 Grant Wistrom DE ram 6 13 3.0
1997 Peter Boulware LB rav 4 16 11.5
1997 James Farrior LB nyj 8 16 1.5
1996 Kevin Hardy LB jax 2 16 5.5
1996 Simeon Rice DE crd 3 16 12.5
1996 Cedric Jones DE nyg 5 16 0.0
15 5.0
Averaging out the projections of Footballguys.com IDP experts Aaron Rudnicki and John Norton, and Long is projected to have seven sacks, Gholston 4.5 sacks, and Harvey four sacks. That averages out to just a hair over 5 sacks per top ten rookie pass rusher, right in line with historical norms.
Evidently, practicing against Brett Favre is stretching the Jets’ defensive backs (and wide receivers) in many new ways.
“Naturally, it’s a whole new world for the wide receivers, but it also has created an added strain for the defensive backs - and that’s a good thing in training camp. It should help them in the early part of the season, when they face strong-armed passers Tom Brady and Carson Palmer.
“He has the innate ability to look one way and still know how to go the other way and get the ball there in time,” safety Kerry Rhodes said of Favre. “A lot of quarterbacks can’t go from this side to that side, and still fit the ball in. He’s one of the guys that can. He keeps you honest. You can’t really cheat.”…
“It comes real, real, real fast,” Rhodes said. “It seems like 100 mph.”
Said wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery: “Every route on the field is available.”
Given the modest expectations that almost everyone has for the Jets’ defense (they are currently 21st on the FBG’s consensus rankings of defense/special teams), the elevated level of practices with Favre in the fold could lead the Jets to outperform their modest expectations/draft slot - the Jets are being selected after 20 (minimum) other D/ST are off the board. If you are approaching the draft with a plan of rotating a slate of defenses during 2008, the Jets could be a team worth considering as part of a 3-team platoon at the position.
An excellent take on the idea of utilizing a defensive team by committee is offered by Footballguys’ own Chase Stuart, whose perennial subscribers’-favorite article ”Defensive Team by Committee” was released today, August 12th. I commend it to your attention before heading into your fantasy draft this season.
With training camps well underway, two high-profile defensive players who entered the NFL this past April are holding out, and sliding down draft boards in the process.
DE Derrick Harvey’s agent Ken Kremer is feuding with the Jaguars’ front office/coaching staff about what is a “reasonable” signing bonus - in the meantime, head coach Jack Del Rio called Harvey’s salary demands “ridiculous” and has indicated in no uncertain terms that Harvey is falling behind by missing training camp reps. Harvey is currently 41st in the Footballguys.com IDP Experts’ consensus rankings, but has fallen completely off draft guru Sigmund Bloom’s board.
Meanwhile, the 9th pick of the NFL Draft (one pick after Harvey this past April), Keith Rivers, is also a holdout missing training camp. Rivers was the favorite to win a starting OLB slot with the Bengals after his selection at the top of the 1st round, but his chances dim with each missed practice. Right now, he’s lurking at #40 on the Footballguys.com IDP Experts’ consensus rankings.
Stay tuned to see if and when these young players join their teams - right now, they are damaging their chances to start when the season opens in September. In the worst case scenarios, each may ruin their IDP production for the entire upcoming season, depending on who claims the roster spots that Jacksonville and Cincinnati envisioned Harvey and Rivers filling back in April.
Happy Drafting!
It’s hard to believe that it took the loss of Philip Daniels to season-ending knee surgery to get the always active Daniel Snyder to trade for sack master Jason Taylor. But shortly after Daniels was lost for the season in 7-on-7 drills in practice, the team put together a package (2nd and 6th round draft picks) to acquire the 33-year old defensive end from the Miami Dolphins.
It’s no secret that Taylor has been on the market since the day Bill Parcells took over the franchise. While it’s unclear why Parcells and Taylor seemed ill at ease with one another, the fact remains a deal to move the 6-time Pro Bowler has been in the works for a long time.
Taylor, who chose to spend his offseason Dancing with the Stars instead of practicing with the fins joins a team that plays a 4-3 defensive front and is in desperate need of another defensive playmaker. While Taylor isn’t a spring chicken, he’s inarguably among the best conditioned athletes in the league and remains highly effective:
- Taylor had 11 sacks last year
- His 117 career sacks put him 14th all-time
- He has six seasons of 10+ sacks, including the last three consecutively
- Taylor hasn’t missed a game since 1999
What does this mean for fantasy owners?
Washington ranked 16th last year with 33 sacks. The addition of Taylor should push them into the top-10; which means more chances for the defensive secondary to make big plays on the ball, to boot. The Redskins are a team in flux this year with a new head Coach (Jim Zorn), offensive coordinator (Sherm Smith) and defensive coordinator (Greg Blache) but now have a weapon that might make them competitive in the toughest division in the NFC. The ability to generate big plays (sacks, INTs, defensive TDs) is the difference between being a fantasy afterthought or an every week starting option. The Skins MAY have just moved from the former to the latter.
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