Randy Moss just completed an insane 23-TD season; breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season mark in the process. As it stands, Moss also broke Rice’s record for most fantasy points by a WR in a season:

As you can see, Rice’s 22-TD season wasn’t even the record holder (it ranked 8th prior to Moss’ 2007 campaign); but rather it was Rice’s 1995 season (122 catches for 1,849 yards and 15 TDs) that was the former standard bearer. Moss’ 2007 numbers give him a 2.9 point edge using standard fantasy scoring.

While this is AMONG the best receiving seasons in football history, it’s really not the best FANTASY season. Remember, the year Rice caught 22 TD receptions, he only played 12 games due to the strike. Imagine what his numbers might have looked like over a full 16-game season.

Here is a list of the best fantasy seasons on a POINTS PER GAME basis (minimum: 12 games played)

Three things to chew on from this list:

1. Jerry Rice’s 22-TD season season is now back in its rightful place as the best ever
2. Lance Alworth’s brilliance comes to the forefront (he has three of the top 7 seasons all time in FPPG)
3. Moss’ 2007 season stands 3rd in PPG; and is indeed AMONG the best ever

As you might imagine, I’m in a lot of leagues. In TEN of them, I had the good fortune to draft Tony Romo and, in most, made the playoffs as a result. While Romo hasn’t been Tom Brady, he’s been awfully good and considering he came in the 7th or 8th round of most 10- team drafts; he’s arguably one of the most valuable players of the season.

But as any veteran fantasy owner knows, once the fantasy playoffs roll around, your only as good as your last game.

Thanks to Tony Romo; I’m now pretty crappy.

• 13 completions
• 36 attempts
• 36.1% completion percentage
• 214 yards
• 0 TDs
• 3 INTs
• 9.3 fantasy points [using FBG scoring]

NOTHING is more painful than having one or more of your fantasy studs lay a goose egg in the playoffs. For those playing at home (and I know a lot of you are!)…Romo was outscored by TWENTY THREE (23) other QBs this week, including such “studs” as:

• Chad Pennington, NYJ
• Matt Moore, CAR
• Josh McCown, OAK
• Brodie Croyle, KC
• Cleo Lemon, MIA
• Shaun Hill, SF

FUN TIMES!

So what does this have to do with Jessica Simpson, you ask? Well, it seems our Mr. Romo has a trouble playing at his normal Pro Bowl level when a lady love is in the stands. This weekend, a pink-jersey clad Jessica Simpson was watching Romo stink up the joint. Coincidence, you say? Well let me ask you this…when was the last time Romo had a game this poor?

• Week 16, 2006
• 14 of 29 (48.3%)
• 142 yards
• 1 TD
• 2 INTs

What was special about that game? Carrie Underwood, his girlfriend at the time, was in the stands.

Bottom line: If you draft Tony Romo for your fantasy team, do everything humanly possible to make sure he isn’t dating a blonde pop idol at the time of your playoffs…OR ELSE!

Yeah…this was the way we all expected things to play out:

Top 50 Fantasy RBs through Week 14

Over the last few weeks, three NFL running backs have joined the 10,000-yards rushing club.

• LaDainian Tomlinson: 10,048 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Warrick Dunn: 10,044 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Fred Taylor: 10,221 yards rushing (in Week 10)

Congratulations are in order as they become  just the 20th, 21st and 22nd players in  NFL history to rush for at least 10,000 yards.

LaDainian Tomlinson is having another excellent season in San Diego; but it pales in comparison to his MVP season of a year ago. While it was impossible to expect Tomlinson to match last year’s output, few expected the Chargers offense as a unit to take a big step back; particularly with Norv Turner at the helm. But, amidst the Chargers up-and-down 2007, there is one player who is, yet again, having an astoundingly good year.

Antonio Gates is on pace for one of the best offensive seasons by a tight end in NFL history.

Through 11 games:

• 60 receptions
• 834 yards
• 13.9 yards per catch
• 8 touchdowns
• 131.4 fantasy points

If Gates maintains his current pace, he’ll finish with:

• 87 receptions
• 1,213 yards
• 13.9 yards per catch
• 12 touchdowns
• 191.1 fantasy points

Here is where those numbers would stand among the all-time single season marks:

• Receptions: Tied for 13th all-time
• Yards: 5th place
• TDs: Tied for 2nd place (Gates holds the single season record with 13 TDs in 2004)
• Fantasy Points: 3rd place

 Other Thoughts:

1. Gates is likely to become the 1st TE in NFL history with three (3) seasons of 10+ TD receptions
2. Gates will overtake Kellen Winslow for 10th all-time with 46 or more TDs at his current pace

The Giants 41-17 pounding at the hands of the Vikings this weekend was a tough pill to swallow for a team that had far exceeded expectations for much of the season. Whether this was simply the case of a team falling flat or hearkens back to recent second half swoons remains to be seen. But there’s no doubt that Giants fans, coaches, teammates and most importantly, fantasy owners, are all hoping that Eli Manning’s performance bounces back in a hurry.

There was a lot of talk yesterday about Eli Manning’s tendency to regress as the season wears on. Is that really true, or does it just seem that way because the TEAM has floundered late in the season?

Here’s your answer:

Eli Manning’s PER ATTEMPT passing numbers 

The numbers are clear as day, throughout Eli Manning’s career he’s been prone to very strong Septembers, followed by downright mediocrity the rest of the way. This year he’s on a similar trajectory. While there are some legitimate reasons for the Giants struggles of late (most notably Plaxico Burress’ ever-worsening ankle pain); the onus is on Manning to rise to the occasion.

The NFL is an injury-riddled league and the QB position is no stranger to bumps and bruises. This year has been no exception, with more than half of the league starting at least 2 QBs this year. In fact, four teams have started THREE QBs this season:

It’s no surprise that none of these teams have a winning record. A few other points to consider:

• 53 QBs have started at least one game this year
• 17 teams have used at least 2 starters
• After this weekend (Donovan McNabb = Doubtful), 18 teams (56% of the NFL) will have started 2+ QBs

So is there any truth to the adage “if you have two QBs you have none?”

Let’s look at the team winning percentages broken down by the # of starting QBs:

I would’ve expected this data to show that teams with one, healthy and productive QB would have the better winning percentage. But I was stunned to see the differential. The 15 teams that have used just one starter have a combined 63.6% winning percentage. The rest of the league (17 teams) have a combined 65-107 record having won just 37.8% of their games.

Randy Moss is, needless to say, having a renaissance year where he once again looks like the league’s best receiver (by a wide margin0 after several disappointing years in Minnesota and Oakland. One of our message board contributors asked the question: What is the gap between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss?

dgreen: Jerry Rice IS the greatest WR of all time. This thread isn’t to claim otherwise.

However, for a long time, Rice has been the G.O.A.T. by a pretty large margin over the next guy. “The next guy” tends to be Don Hutson in many minds, but there is at least some argument about who is “the next guy”. For awhile, Randy Moss was viewed as “the next guy” and a legitimate contender to Rice down the road. Then he went to Oakland and people started to even question his HOF worthiness. Now in NE, he is looking like what we always knew he could be: a contender to Rice.

So, what’s the gap here? How much can Moss close that gap? How good of a chance does Moss have to make a move on Rice for GOAT?

Regardless of what you personally think about Randy Moss, his value to the team, his work ethic, etc…it’s impossible to deny that STATISTICALLY he’s among the very best to ever play the position. But how do you measure Moss’ career against the someone that many feel is the best PLAYER (regardless of position) in the modern era?

I think when you consider career accomplishments, importance to the game, work ethic, attitude, longevity, there are MILES between Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. But to dgreen’s question, how far away is Moss statistically?

Randy is currently playing in his 10th season. Through nine games he’s tallied:

• 56 receptions
• 924 yards
• 12 TDs

If we’re to assume Moss maintains his current pace to finish out the year, he would amass:

• 100 receptions
• 1,643 yards
• 21 TDs

Now let’s compare where Moss’ projected career numbers stand against Jerry Rice’s numbers through 10 seasons:

Career Receiving Stats (through 10 seasons)

As you can see, Rice was quite a bit ahead of Moss through 10 seasons. When you consider the unprecedented longevity that Rice enjoyed, too, it seems pretty safe to say that Randy Moss is really no threat to Jerry Rice’s statistical accomplishments.

When you’re rounding out your fantasy rosters, it’s a common practice to overrate the top receivers on bad passing teams. Logically, one assumes that SOMEONE has to be the top target and, as long as they’re getting thrown to, they have fantasy value. Well, year in year out there are a handful of teams that disprove that theory.

This year, five teams have a leading receiver that is on pace to finish with less than 60 receptions:

Looking at that list, you see a number of receivers that were touted as “sleepers” this year; yet play for teams with challenged passing games. Let this be a lesson to you; not every team has viable fantasy options at every position.

Warrick Dunn is “leading” the Atlanta Falcons with 392 yards rushing. He’s averaging just 3.21 yards per carry on 122 carries. If Dunn were to maintain his current pace, his full season numbers would look like:

• 244 carries
• 784 rushing yards
• 3.2 yards per rush
• 4 rushing TDs

Dunn’s 784 yards would be disappointing, but how does it fair against history?

Luckily for Dunn, the Falcons have fielded some really inept rushing attacks through the years. Since the advent of the 16-game season, the Falcons lead rusher has fallen short of the 784-yard mark TEN times.

Falcons Leading Rusher, Lowest since 1978 (Advent of the 16-game season)

Who says NFL trades never happen? Yesterday Michael Bennett was traded to Tampa Bay; but today a much bigger (potentially) deal went down as the San Diego Chargers acquired Chris Chambers from the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick.

This is the rare mid-season deal that has significant fantasy implications.

1. Chambers will be the lead WR in San Diego — It may take a few games, but Chambers will almost certainly become Philip Rivers most targeted WR
2. Vincent Jackson can’t be happy — The Chargers young wideout is now going to have to compete for targets with a proven veteran. Ultimately this might be good for Jackson’s career though, as he may be better suited as a WR2
3. Malcolm Floyd and Craig Davis become relative non-factors — Neither WR was making a ton of plays anyway, but they will now be relegated to backup duty primarily
4. Philip Rivers gets an upgrade — I’m not the biggest Chambers fan (more on that in a second) but his addition definitely improves Rivers’ arsenal
5. Don’t downgrade Gates or Tomlinson – Gates and Tomlinson aren’t going to lose many targets because of this move. If anything, this should allow the Chargers to sustain offensive drives more often, which means more red zone chances for Gates and Tomlinson; the best at their respective positions when it comes to scoring TDs
6. The Dolphins are throwing in the towel -- Honestly, the Dolphins are officially heading toward 2008 at this point, giving up their lone playmaker in the receiving game.
7. Upgrade Ted Ginn Jr. and Marty Booker — SOMEONE besides Ronnie Brown has to get passes thrown their way, and rookie Ginn is probably going to see a ton of them as the Dolphins look to rebuild toward a 2008 resurgence.

Where does this put Chambers now in terms of fantasy value?

Through six games, Chambers has 31 receptions for 415 yards, but zero TDs. His numbers project to:

• 83 receptions
• 1,107 yards

It’s difficult to look at his situation in San Diego and not expect Chambers to improve, right? Well, let’s be careful here.

Targets = Opportunity

Through six games, Chambers have been targeted a whopping 66 times. That’s the 4th most targets in the league. You can be sure that Chambers WILL NOT see as many passes thrown his way in San Diego.

1. The Chargers run the ball a lot more
2. Antonio Gates has been targeted 54 times; leading the team
3. LaDainian Tomlinson has been targeted 38 times
4. The Chargers WRs have been targeted 66 times COMBINED through Week Six

The fact is, Chambers will go from being one of THE most targeted receivers in football to somewhere toward the bottom of WR1s in the league. So the real question fantasy owners need to ask themselves is, can Chambers do MORE with each target? The bad news is Chambers has always had hands of stone.

Take a look at the 50 most targeted receivers over the last 5+ seasons (2002-2007), ranked by reception-to-target percentage:

Hands of stone. And the bad news is Chambers has been consistently poor at converting targets into catches. His career best rate was, as a rookie, when he caught 53% of his targets. This year he’s running at 47%, bout 15-20% lower than most elite receivers.

What’s the silver lining?  

I can see two potential areas of encouragement. 1) Norv Turner coaches Chambers for two years in Miami; including the 2003 season when Chambers finished as the 11th best fantasy wideout. 2) Chambers has ZERO TDs right now, but has historically been a good TD producer. I would be surprised if Turner doesn’t find a way to get him at least 5 or 6 TDs the rest of the way.

So what’s the verdict? If you own Chris Chambers, it’s probably a slight upgrade for you if he can score touchdowns, but in PPR leagues his value almost assuredly takes a dip for a few weeks, if not the entire season. If you were starting Vincent Jackson on a consistent basis, you probably want to look elsewhere. It also means Philip Rivers (who hopefully has been on your bench) might now become a viable option at QB. On the Dolphins side, this puts even more pressure on Ronnie Brown to carry the load. He’s been too dominant to sit, but you might want to give more consideration to a trade at this point. Ted Ginn probably is the biggest beneficiary, in that the Fins have absolutely no reason not to start him and let him get a baptism by fire the rest of the way.

Good luck!

It’s been a rough few weeks for fellow staffer (and good buddy) Chase Stuart. You see, his beloved Jets fell to my Eagles on Sunday, leaving his team at a dismal 1-5 and also ensuring that Chase will be buying me dinner at my Manhattan restaurant of choice (get ready to pony up Chase!). As if that weren’t enough, the entire foundation of his NFL analysis has been torn asunder thanks to the astounding season Tom Brady is putting together. His love for the Jets is almost matched by his disdain for the Patriots, and he’s fought the good fight against proclaiming Belichick, Brady and the other Pats as “all time greats.”

That is, until this year.

In what some mistook for a tongue-in-cheek analysis, Chase eats crow and acknowledges what many of us have known for a long time: Tom Brady isn’t simply a great QB, he’s one of the best to ever play the game.

Pro-Football-Reference Blog — Now Serving: Crow

…Because while I had lots of good arguments before (at least, in my opinion) for why Brady was overrated, they’re all moot points now. The only way I could have been more wrong about Brady was if I called him a girl (which, come to think of it, I’m pretty sure I did off-line).

128.7 QB Rating. 16 TDs in 5 games. 9.20 adjusted yards per pass. 74.1% completion percentage.

Brady’s in the middle of one of the greatest seasons of all time. He just might end up having the greatest season of all time. Right now the league is averaging 5.98 AY/A, which means Brady has added 508 yards over the league average this season. The highest yards over league average mark is from Manning in ‘04, with 1,581 (a record Brady is on pace to break).

What else is there to say? I was wrong — give him some weapons, and the guy is unstoppable…

As you can see from the aforementioned quote, Chase penned this article before this weekend’s game against the Cowboys. A game where Brady enjoyed his first career 5-TD passing game. On the season, Brady’s numbers are:

• 148 completions
• 204 attempts
• 72.5% completion percentage
• 1,771 yards passing
• 8.7 yards per attempt
• 21 TD passes
• 2 INTs
• 128.9 paser rating

Needless to say, those numbers are usually reserved for EA Madden football. Were Brady somehow able to maintain this level of production for the rest of his season, we’re looking at a season of:

• 395 completions
• 544 attempts
• 72.5% comp rate
• 4,723 yards passing
• 8.7 yards per attempt
• 56 TD passes
• 5 INTs
• 128.9 passer rating

Those numbers would, inarguably be the best passing numbers in league history. Here is where those totals would rank all-time:

• #1 TD passes (Current record: Peyton Manning, 49 TDs)
• #1 TD/INT differential (P. Manning, +31)
• #1 Passer Rating (P. Manning, 121.1)
• #1 Completion Percentage (Ken Anderson, 70.55%)
• #4 Pass completions (Rich Gannon, 418; Warren Moon, 404; Drew Bledsoe, 400)
• #5 Passing yards (Dan Marino, 5084; Kurt Warner, 4830; Dan Fouts, 4802; Dan Marino, 4746)

All that and the guy has 3 Super Bowl rings and is dating a super model. Life is tough.

My good friend Mark Wimer took a fairly in depth look at the Panthers signing of Vinny Testaverde and discussed his chances as the Panthers potential emergency starting QB. As most of you know, Vinny is OLD by NFL standards. This will be his 21st NFL season; a remarkable accomplishment in a league where the average player suits up less than four years.

As Testaverde embarks on a potential start this weekend, it got me wondering how many QBs have suited up and played for as long. Using our Data Dominator, I took a look at all the QBs (since 1960) that attempted at least one pass in their 20th season or later.

That’s it folks. Not exactly a resounding endorsement for Vinny to shock the world, is it? The good news, if you can call it that, is Vinnie needs only 35 completions, 392 yards and 4 TDs to overtake Earl Morrall for 2nd all-time on this list. If he gets two or three starts in Carolina, he’ll likely do just that.

It seems that every year football fans, fantasy owners and media pundits find a way to hype players as “the best ever” and speak with such hyperbole as though to convince ourselves we’re witnessing greatness. It’s never quite enough to say someone is “very good” or “excellent”…they have to be “the greatest of all time” or “bound for the Hall of Fame.” Such hyperbole often rears its ugly head in March and April as football starved fans salivate over the new crop of NFL rookies.

Calvin Johnson is the latest in a long line of ultra-hyped rookie receivers. Make no mistake, I fully participated in the Calvin Johnson hype too, and with good reason. Johnson has the size of a tight end, world-class speed, glue-like hands and his on-field production is matched by his quality as an upstanding citizen. Combining all that with a chance to play for Mike Martz in a pass happy offense makes Johnson a virtual no brainer.

Yet, Johnson isn’t the best rookie receiver through Week Five. In fact, he’s not the 2nd best rookie. And it’s not even close.

ENTER Dwayne Bowe.

Through Week 5, Bowe is the leading rookie receiver with:

• 22 receptions
• 369 yards
• 16.8 yards per reception
• 3 TDs
• 54.9 fantasy points

Top 10 Rookie Fantasy Recivers (through Week 5)

How does Bowe’s start compare historically? Well, if Bowe were able to sustain his productivity over the full season, his numbers would approximate to:

• 70 receptions
• 1,180 yards
• 16.8 yards per reception
• 10 TDs
• 178 fantasy points

How would those numbers compare historically? 178 fantasy points would make Bowe the 6th most productive fantasy rookie WR in LEAGUE HISTORY

Top 10 Rookie Fantasy WRs (1960-Present)

Should we be surprised? On one hand, Bowe was also a 1st round pick (23rd overall) and was well regarded by most scouts. He also was drafted by a team that had a desperate need for a starting caliber WR. The Chiefs have been relying on Eddie Kennison (who is much better suited as a WR2) for years and have struggled to find consistency at WR2 and beyond. But despite those obvious positives, there were reasons to discount Bowe’s rookie chances. One, the Chiefs QB situation is, and continues to be, tenuous. Two, Herm Edwards is among the league’s most conservative head coaches. Three, changes on the offensive line cast a shadow over the Chiefs ability to sustain drives.

As many of you know, I profess that the keys to fantasy success are Ability and Opportunity. Many NFL players have the ability to excel, but not as many have the opportunity; particularly in their rookie seasons. An injury to Eddie Kennison forced the Chiefs to start Bowe far sooner than I think he would’ve otherwise. But the great news for fantasy owners lucky enough to roster Bowe is that, now that he’s produced week in, week out, you can bet he won’t stop being a productive target when Eddie Kennison gets back in the lineup.

Unless you just got back from a 3-month deep sea fishing expedition (in which case, welcome back!), you know that Brett Favre broke Dan Marino’s all-time TD pass mark this weekend.

All-Time TD Pass Leaders

* = Active Player
Link: Pro-Football-Reference

How long will Favre hold the record?

Marino overtook Fran Tarkenton for the record in the middle of the 1995 season, and held the league’s TD title for slightly more than 11 seasons. Favre seems unlikely to hold the record as long, thanks to Peyton Manning.

At 31 years old, Manning is already 7th on the all-time list with 283 TD passes. His career average of 1.91 TD passes per game stands as the best in league history (among qualified passers) and well ahead of Favre’s 1.72 TD passes per game.

All-Time TD Passes per Game (Min: 100 games played)

Based on Manning’s current TD/game rate, he would catch Brett Favre in 73 games.

• 422 TDs (Record) - 283 TDs (Manning:Current) = 139 TDs
• 139 TDs / 1.912 (Manning:TDperG) = 72.69 Games (Round to 73)

But there are factors to consider if we want to take an accurate stab at this prognostication.

1. Favre isn’t retired yet
2. Manning may not continue his current TD/Game pace as he ages

We have no idea how long Favre will continue to play, but I’m going to bet he’ll play through the 2008 season. If the Packers (currently 4-0) were to surprisingly win the Super Bowl this year, all bets are off. But for now, let’s say he plays out the next 28 games (12 more games in 2007, 16 in 2008).

*** At his career pace, that would give Favre another 48 TD passes ***

Now, let’s try to guesstimate what Manning’s TD/game mark will resemble over the next phase of his career. Manning is in his 10th season. Here are the TD/Game rates for some other all-time TD leaders through their first 10 seasons.

• Dan Marino (83-92): 1.92 TDs/Game
• Brett Favre (91-00): 1.76 TDs/Game
• Fran Tarkenton (61-70): 1.46 TDs/Game
• Warren Moon (84-93): 1.39 TDs/Game
• John Elway (83-92): 1.10 TDs/Game
• Joe Montana (79-88): 1.38 TDs/Game

Now let’s look at how they fared in their 11th season and beyond…

• Dan Marino (83-92): 1.43 TDs/Game
• Brett Favre (91-00): 1.67 TDs/Game
• Fran Tarkenton (61-70): 1.29 TDs/Game
• Warren Moon (84-93): 1.42 TDs/Game
• John Elway (83-92): 1.59 TDs/Game
• Joe Montana (79-88): 1.54 TDs/Game

As you can see, there is no hard and fast rule which says a QB has to fall off as he enters his 2nd decade in the league. In our above sampling, three of the all-time greats (Marino, Favre and Tarkenton) saw meaningful dips as they got older; but the other three (Moon, Elway and Montana) actually saw their output increase.

ON AVERAGE, there was only a 1% decline among the all-time greats at the position in their later years. While Manning could certainly see a decline, there’s not enough statistical evidence to say it’s likely.

So let’s get back to prognostication.

Favre has 422 TDs and is likely to throw another 48 if he plays through the 2008 season. If Manning stays healthy, and maintains his current TD/game pace throughout the 2nd part of his career, he will need another 98 games to break Favre’s All-Time TD record.

• 422 (Favre career TDs) + 48 (Remainder of Favre’s career) = 470 TDs
• Minus 283 (Manning career TDs) = 187 TDs to the record
• 187 / 1.912 (Manning: TD/G pace) = 97.8 games (Round to 98)

If Manning remains healthy, that means he’ll become the NFL’s All-Time Leading TD Passer in the 2013 Season. Get those tickets now!

Yesterday, we saw how the Chargers running game has declined through three games more than any team since the ‘96-’97 seasons. Well, San Diego, you’ve got some company. The 2006-2007 Saints are currently mirroring the Chargers’ fall from grace. No passing attack since 1996 has seen as large a decline in performance through three games as the ‘07 Saints.

What makes both situations so surprising is that each team kept its key personnel. The Saints brought back Brees, Bush, Colston and McAllister, and drafted Robert Meachem to replace Joe Horn. Sean Payton is still around, so we can’t use the Norv Turner excuse in New Orleans. The real culprit has been the abysmal play of the line, but who could have predicted that? Pro Bowl LT Jammal Brown is injured and playing like it, while RT Jon Stinchcomb is playing miserably. Brees has been sacked “only” four times, but he’s committed nine turnovers in three games in the face of constant pressure. So how much worse than last year are the Saints passing stats?

I calculated the adjusted yards per pass attempt for all passes thrown by QBs for every team from 1996-2006. For those that don’t remember what AY/A is,

Adjusted yards per attempt is defined as (passing yards + 10*(TD passes) - 45*(interceptions thrown)) / (pass attempts). It was devised (and the reasoning behind it explained) in a book called The Hidden Game of Football, by Carroll, Palmer, and Thorn.

Here are the top 20 passing teams from 1996-2006, sorted by adjusted yards per pass attempt.

 year	tm 	cmp	att	yard	td	int	AY/A
 2004	clt	353	526	4732	51	10	9.11
 2004	min	379	548	4717	39	11	8.42
 2000	ram	380	587	5492	37	23	8.22
 1999	ram	343	529	4586	42	15	8.19
 1998	atl	236	420	3722	28	15	7.92
 2006	phi	322	542	4298	31	 8	7.84
 2003	oti	312	496	3992	30	 9	7.84
 1998	min	327	534	4492	41	16	7.83
 2005	clt	348	515	4191	31	11	7.78
 2006	clt	362	557	4397	31	 9	7.72
 2004	sdg	287	446	3468	29	 7	7.72
 2001	ram	378	549	4852	36	22	7.69
 1998	sfo	346	555	4482	40	15	7.58
 2003	min	333	518	4169	32	13	7.54
 2006	nor	372	578	4626	27	12	7.54
 2000	den	354	568	4464	28	12	7.40
 2004	phi	336	546	4208	32	11	7.39
 2004	kan	370	561	4633	27	17	7.38
 2005	kan	317	507	4014	17	10	7.36
 2000	sfo	365	581	4404	32	10	7.36

For comparison’s sake, here are the worst 20 passing teams from 1996-2006:

 year	tm 	cmp	att	yard	td	int	AY/A
 1998	sdg	260	565	3092	10	34	2.94
 1997	nor	244	487	3012	12	35	3.20
 1999	crd	286	555	3059	11	30	3.28
 2005	sfo	202	387	2163	8	21	3.35
 2003	det	318	585	2967	17	24	3.52
 2000	cin	207	454	2219	6	14	3.63
 1998	phi	282	531	2733	7	18	3.75
 1999	phi	235	472	2405	18	18	3.76
 2001	cin	322	601	3291	12	25	3.80
 2001	car	314	578	3098	12	22	3.85
 2002	det	277	575	3168	19	25	3.88
 2005	chi	218	416	2183	11	15	3.89
 2006	rai	263	481	2850	7	23	3.92
 1996	nyg	237	458	2639	13	21	3.98
 2003	atl	230	457	2631	14	21	4.00
 2001	dal	209	411	2409	14	20	4.01
 2004	mia	308	585	3343	19	26	4.04
 2002	crd	291	548	3038	18	22	4.07
 1998	pit	273	488	2764	13	20	4.09
 2003	chi	271	515	2905	12	20	4.13

The 2006 Saints averaged 7.54 AY/A, but through three games in 2007, New Orleans is at just 2.86 AY/A. That difference of 4.67 (rounded) is the largest decline from Year N to Year N+1 (through three games) of any pairing since the 1996-1997 seasons:

 2006	nor	7.54	2.86	4.67
 1996	nor	4.74	0.44	4.29
 1998	sfo	7.58	3.29	4.29
 1997	pit	5.54	1.54	3.99
 2004	min	8.42	4.43	3.98
 1998	crd	5.50	1.58	3.93
 2005	rai	5.86	2.26	3.60
 2000	was	5.61	2.01	3.60
 2002	atl	6.43	2.95	3.49
 1998	nyj	7.13	3.67	3.46
 1999	sea	6.02	2.70	3.31
 2000	dal	4.41	1.14	3.27
 2005	pit	6.95	3.78	3.17
 1998	rav	5.62	2.46	3.16
 2001	ram	7.69	4.62	3.07
 2002	rav	5.64	2.60	3.04
 2002	chi	4.90	1.89	3.01
 2004	clt	9.11	6.14	2.97
 2001	det	5.13	2.21	2.92
 2005	tam	5.57	2.68	2.89

These Saints have some company, at least. The 1997 Saints had an absolutely miserable start thanks to Mike Ditka and Heath Shuler. Steve Young had one of the best seasons of all time for the 49ers in 1998, but was injured very early in 1999 and played poorly before that. The ‘98 Steelers? The beginning of the Kordell Stewart collapse. The 2005 Vikings? The beginning of the Daunte Culpepper collapse, although to be fair, he had quite a perch to fall from. The 1999 Cardinals? The Jake Plummer collapse. Suffice it to say, history doesn’t have anything pretty to say for Saints fans.

You might have noticed that Tom Brady’s having a pretty good start, but he wasn’t bad last year. While it’s one of the biggest improvements over the same era, it’s not even the sharpest increase in 2007:

 2000	atl	4.65	10.35	-5.70
 1998	ram	4.86	10.20	-5.34
 2004	pit	7.17	12.47	-5.30
 2006	tam	4.34	9.04	-4.70
 2005	sfo	3.35	7.81	-4.46
 2006	nwe	6.26	10.70	-4.44
 1998	was	5.92	10.16	-4.24
 2005	chi	3.89	7.99	-4.10
 1999	den	5.43	9.23	-3.80
 2001	car	3.85	7.49	-3.64
 2005	phi	5.18	8.72	-3.53
 2003	phi	6.03	9.54	-3.51
 2003	nyg	4.71	8.22	-3.51
 1996	rai	5.21	8.66	-3.45
 1998	sea	5.47	8.88	-3.41
 2000	sdg	4.13	7.33	-3.20
 1996	tam	4.39	7.59	-3.20
 1999	cle	5.12	8.31	-3.20
 2005	nyj	5.16	8.21	-3.05
 2006	dal	6.68	9.66	-2.98

The 2000 Falcons gave away over a third of their stats to Doug Johnson and Danny Kanell, who played terribly. Chris Chandler started off lights out in 2001, with 651 passing yards on 60 attempts through three games. The ‘99 Rams obviously added Kurt Warner, and Roethlisberger started off white hot in 2005, with 688 passing yards on 60 passing attempts through three games. And then you’ve got this year’s Bucs, who seem rejuvenated with 37-year old Jeff Garcia.

Which ugly start is more surprising, the ‘Aints passing attack or the ‘Bolts rushing attack? Which of those team seems more likely to turn it around? The Saints have lost McAllister for the season, while the Chargers main players are all healthy (although they lost their head coach and offensive coordinator). And will either of the first two picks in the Chargers 2001 draft go back to the Pro Bowl this year?

Last week, I wrote how LaDainian Tomlinson was off to a terrible start. He was averaging under two yards per carry, almost unheard of for an elite back over a 35-carry stretch. Well after three games, neither Tomlinson nor any of the San Diego running backs are rushing very well.

It was only last year that Charger running backs ran 461 times for 2,482 yards, an incredible 5.38 average yards per carry. Those last two numbers were the second highest of the past decade, behind only the the 2003 Packers (2,506 yards) and 1997 Lions (5.94 yards per carry). There were 343 teams in the NFL from 1996-2006, and Chargers running backs ran the ball better than almost every one of them. The Chargers also ranked 2nd in my quick “Yards over 3.0″ stat. Here are the top 10 teams, with the last column representing rushing yards accumulated over three yards per attempt:

 1997	det	396	2352	5.94	1164
 2006	sdg	461	2482	5.38	1099
 2003	gnb	473	2506	5.30	1087
 2003	rav	478	2452	5.13	1018
 2006	jax	430	2206	5.13	916
 2005	sea	475	2326	4.90	901
 2002	den	396	2052	5.18	864
 2006	nyg	426	2121	4.98	843
 1998	den	458	2213	4.83	839
 2005	kan	468	2242	4.79	838

This year, the Chargers rank dead last in the league in rushing yards per attempt by running backs, with 77 carries for just 198 yards, an ugly 2.57 yards per rush. Only the Chiefs at 2.80 join San Diego with a team RB average under three yards per carry. Here are the worst 15 teams in YPC average after three games played, from 1997-2007. The last column shows each team’s season ending YPC average by RBs:

 2000	cin	48	 93	1.94	4.34
 2004	mia	62	132	2.13	3.44
 2006	cle	48	104	2.17	3.27
 1999	crd	78	191	2.45	3.12
 2006	tam	50	123	2.46	3.68
 2000	buf	75	185	2.47	3.56
 2000	crd	61	151	2.48	3.69
 2006	nyj	73	187	2.56	3.40
 1997	jax	89	228	2.56	3.63
 2002	nyj	39	100	2.56	4.07
 2003	buf	72	185	2.57	3.94
 2007	sdg	77	198	2.57	 --
 2000	jax	78	201	2.58	4.22
 2005	nwe	74	192	2.59	3.51
 1998	gnb	79	208	2.63	3.52

Ironically enough, the worst team after three games ended up looking best of the group. Corey Dillon had 82 yards on 41 carries after three weeks, but would later set the single game rushing record (since broken) and rush for 200 yards in another game later that year. This was right in the middle of Dillon’s prime, when he was considered the most inconsistent RB in the NFL. That 2000 Bengals team was one of the ugliest worst passing teams in the last decade (more on this tomorrow). For the season the Bengals had a QB rating of 52.0, and in the first three games it was an ugly 39.8. That team was such an outlier, I’m not sure they provide a great comparison to any current team, let alone one with a Pro Bowl QB.

The other two teams to top 4.00 — the ‘02 Jets and ‘00 Jaguars — were, like the 2000 Bengals and the 2007 Chargers, carried by great RBs. The ‘02 Jets were a weird team, because they were outscored by 64 points in games 2 and 3 with Vinny Testaverde at QB, and became a different team after the emergence of Chad Pennington. The ‘00 Jags? Fred Taylor would rank 6th in the league in rushing yards and average 4.8 YPC, despite playing only 13 games. Any guesses as to which three games he missed?

The rest of the list is filled with teams that never really fixed things in the running game. I don’t think the ‘07 Chargers are anything like the ‘02 Jets or ‘00 Jaguars, because of the significant change in personnel, but they could conceivably match what the 1997 Bengals did. Certainly, though, most teams in the Chargers’ situation have failed to become even an average rushing team.

Before we go, let’s just take a second and recognize how badly the Chargers RBs have regressed this year. Of the 343 teams from 1996-2006, none of them have declined as much in performance after three games like the 2007 Chargers. Below is a table that shows each team’s Year N yards per carry average by RBs, that team’s Year N+1 yards per carry average by RBs after three games, and the difference:

 2006	sdg	5.38	2.57	2.81
 1999	cin	4.57	1.94	2.63
 2001	nyj	4.77	2.56	2.20
 1996	atl	4.52	2.65	1.87
 2004	nwe	4.43	2.59	1.83
 2004	nyj	4.72	2.89	1.82
 2002	buf	4.35	2.57	1.78
 2005	tam	4.21	2.46	1.75
 1997	gnb	4.33	2.63	1.69
 2005	cle	3.84	2.17	1.68
 2006	sfo	4.99	3.39	1.60
 2005	sea	4.90	3.31	1.58
 2006	jax	5.13	3.55	1.58
 2004	rav	4.33	2.77	1.57
 2001	nyg	4.39	2.83	1.56
 2006	kan	4.34	2.80	1.54
 2001	pit	4.57	3.06	1.51
 1999	jax	4.08	2.58	1.50
 2003	mia	3.61	2.13	1.48
 2005	chi	4.39	2.95	1.44

The difference between the Chargers and even the fourth biggest decliner is huge. Now obviously the Chargers had a high perch to fall from, but this steep decline is unprecedented in the past eleven years, and maybe much longer. As we’ve seen, the 2000 Bengals and 2002 Jets did turn it around, but I’m not sure if we can explain what’s going on in San Diego. The 2000 Bengals started off with rookie (and soon to be bust) Akili Smith at QB, after Jeff Blake had a good season in 1999. The 2002 Jets ran Curtis Martin just 24 times in the first three games; the 2007 Chargers have run LT 57 times already. This Chargers team returns all five offensive lineman and their superstar TE, along with two great RBs. And while it’s easy to blame Norv Turner, he’s always coached successful running games. It’s hard to see what’s going on in San Diego, but we’re seeing a decline of absolutely historic proportions so far. It’s as if Peyton Manning started playing like Andrew Walter. As I said last week, I’ll never be surprised to watch Tomlinson run for 150 yards on any Sunday, but right now, the 2007 Chargers RBs and offensive lineman have looked pitiful.

On the other side, let’s give some credit to the 2007 Cleveland Browns, who have the third largest increase using the same criteria:

 1998	car	3.64	6.57	-2.94
 2002	rav	4.25	6.75	-2.50
 2006	cle	3.27	5.71	-2.44
 1997	sfo	4.02	6.29	-2.28
 1996	min	3.74	5.87	-2.13
 2000	pit	4.03	6.00	-1.97
 2001	mia	3.38	5.33	-1.95
 2001	rai	3.61	5.51	-1.90
 1999	nyg	3.22	5.10	-1.88
 2003	oti	3.37	5.07	-1.70
 2002	chi	3.42	5.05	-1.63
 2001	crd	3.51	5.14	-1.63
 2002	car	3.59	5.20	-1.61
 1996	cin	3.68	5.08	-1.39
 1996	tam	3.27	4.65	-1.38
 1997	sdg	3.59	4.97	-1.38
 1996	chi	3.78	5.10	-1.32
 1999	phi	3.92	5.23	-1.31
 2001	min	3.67	4.97	-1.31
 1997	crd	3.19	4.48	-1.28

First off, let me say upfront that I am not a fan of Randy Moss. I was appalled by his slacker, pouty attitude while in Oakland and I don’t think he’s a truly professional athlete in the way the Jerry Rice or Curtis Martin were truly professionals during their careers.

However, that said I must report a jaw-dropping statistic that I noticed this week while researching the Buffalo/New England matchup coming up on Sunday, using Dr. Doug Drinen’s Final Targets tool.

Randy Moss has been targeted by Tom Brady 18 times so far this year, with 9 opportunities to make catches in each of the first 2 weeks. So far, he has hauled in 17/288/3 - that’s 94.4% of the passes that have come his way, folks. WOW! Talk about plugged in - right now Moss and Brady are in a phenomenal zone that few QB-WR combos reach.

We’ll see how long the honeymoon period lasts, but right now these two are almost automatic. Start ‘em if you’ve got ‘em.