A few weeks ago, shortly after Joe Gibbs announced he wouldn’t return to coach the Redskins; it was widely believed that either Al Saunders or Gregg Williams would succeed him as the team’s head coach. Then, both were unceremoniously fired and Jim Zorn and Greg Blache were named OC and DC, respectively; despite the team having yet to hire a head coach.

Zorn, who spent the bulk of this decade coaching Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle as the QB coach, was a surprise hire as OC; but one that is well versed in a variety of offensive styles. Blache, who was one of Williams’ defensive assistants, was less surprising since he was already on staff and had experience as a coordinator in Chicago.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been left to wonder who Daniel Snyder would hire as head coach; with a ready made set of assistants in place. Jim Fassel was “the guy” according to a lot of pundits [who I’m increasingly starting to think have no real edge in their sources]; while names like Steve Mariucci, Steve Spagnuolo and Ron Meeks were bandied about.

And now, after much speculation and fanfare…the Redskins have hired their head coach.

JIM ZORN.

Yes, leave it to Daniel Snyder to poach his own freshly hired coordinator for a job on the same staff. While official contract details haven’t been released, several sources say Zorn has signed a 5-year, $15mm deal to replace Joe Gibbs. To say this move is surprising would be an understatement. Zorn has never called plays in the NFL and now will be responsible for replacing a Hall of Fame head coach.

But just because the hire is unconventional; doesn’t mean it was ill conceived. Personally, I think the Redskins are far better off giving a young up-and-comer like Zorn a try than a retread like Jim Fassel who has modest success in New York and was a complete washout as OC in Baltimore. While many will harp on Zorn’s lack of experience (he’s never been a coordinator), let’s not forget that Snyder has watched the Andy Reid-led Philadelphia Eagles dominate the NFC East for the better part of the new millennium. For those with short memories, recall that Reid - like Zorn - was hired as a head coach after serving as a QB coach. Reid - like Zorn - had no NFL coordinator experience. Reid - like Zorn - honed his craft at the side of Mike Holmgren.

Ultimately whether Jim Zorn is successful in Washington; it won’t be because he never called plays or ran a franchise before this hire. I say kudos on the bold move; the Skins face daunting competition from arguably the toughest division opponents in the league. A “safe” hire would’ve been the easy, but wrong move to make.

I’m all for the NFL owners openness to new coaching candidates. The idea that they’re no longer content to simply recycle the same old names over and over is refreshing, particularly in a year when there were only four head coaching vacancies (with Tony Dungy possibly providing a fifth).

But JOHN HARBAUGH?

Seriously?

For those who haven’t been paying attention to the Ravens coaching situation, they officially named John Harbaugh the team’s newest head coach, with a 4-year deal rumored to be in the $2mm per year range. Harbaugh was the Ravens backup plan after Jason Garrett turned down their offer earlier in the week.

I’m an Eagles season ticket holder and have to say I’m pretty stunned at this hire. Harbaugh was an Eagles assistant coach since 1998, and apparently his experience under Andy Reid; one of the most successful coaches of the decade, was a huge positive in the eyes of Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti. While I can understand the allure, I still have to wonder whether Harbaugh is ready for this challenge. Remember, the lion’s share of his NFL coaching resume was as a SPECIAL TEAMS coordinator. He was named the NFL Special Teams coach of the year in 2001; and frankly that reputation carried him over the last few seasons. As an Eagles fan, I can say with absolute certainty that the Eagles special teams has been anywhere from mediocre to downright terrible for years. It’s the one area where the team has needed massive improvement during most of the decade. This year, he took over as the secondary coach…but one has to wonder what kind of impact he really made. It’s a largely veteran secondary and the team continues to run the same system under long-time DC Jim Johnson.

To Ravens fans, I wish you luck. It wasn’t that long ago that people were lambasting the Eagles for hiring Andy Reid. At the time, Reid had never been an NFL coordinator and was best known as Brett Favre’s QB coach. The conventional wisdom was that Reid would be overmatched at the outset. Five NFC East titles later and we all know better. Maybe Harbaugh will be that next great coach who comes from an unconventional route. Or, as I suspect, this could end up being the head scratcher that so many of us think it is.

We knew it was inevitable, but today it became official. Tony Sparano is the Miami Dolphins new head coach. Most know that Sparano spent four seasons with Parcells in Dallas, but they may not be aware of his prior NFL stops.

• 1999-2000: Offensive Quality Control, Cleveland Browns

Sparano got his NFL start under Chris Palmer with the expansion Browns.  An offensive quality control coach is basically the low man on the totem pole, and their job is to basically do anything the head coach, OC and other assistants ask of them.

The Bad News: The Browns were an offensive abomination in both 1999 and 2000; ranking dead last in both yards and points. Sparano wasn’t witness to offensive genius in his first gig.

The Good News: Palmer, the Browns head coach, has long been a favorite of Parcells; and even though the Browns didn’t have a lot of success, there’s no doubt Parcells would trust a recommendation from Palmer when looking for coaches in Big D.

• 2001: Tight Ends Coach, Washington Redskins

Sparano landed on his feet with his first positional coaching job in 2001, under new Redskins head coach Marty Schottenheimer. Unfortunately, Schottenheimer’s run in D.C. was limited to one season and, as a result, Sparano would find himself looking for work yet again after the 2001 season.

The Bad News: Schottenheimer was “one and done” and the Redskins offense ranked just 28th in the league. The Redskins tight ends were a mixed bag, with Zeron Flemister leading the way with 18 catches, 196 yards and 2 TDs.

The Good News: Sparano got to see one of the league’s most successful coaches at work, and actually got high marks in terms of getting reasonably good production out of the collection of TEs.

• 2002: Tight Ends Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars

Sparano moves on to Jacksonville under Tom Coughlin. Again, he’s star crossed as the Jaguars fire Coughlin at season’s end and Jack Del Rio doesn’t choose to retain Sparano.

The Bad News: Coughlin gets bounced after the 2002 season, meaning Sparano is AGAIN looking for work. The Jaguars finish the season 6-10 and their offensive numbers fail to crack the top 20.

The Good News: The tight ends were a bright light in an otherwise moribund passing attack. Kyle Brady and Pete Mitchell combine for 68 receptions, 707 yards and 6 TDs. Putting those numbers in perspective, they represented 25% of the team’s receptions, 23% of the team’s receiving yards and 33% of the team’s passing TDs.

• 2003-2007: Tight Ends/Offensive Line/Assistant Head Coach, Dallas Cowboys

Bill Parcells hires Sparano in 2003, and his role expands over Parcells’ four-year tenure. He ends up as the team’s co-offensive coordinator, assistant head coach, and offensive line coach. His work was so impressive, that he remains in place under new head coach Wade Phillips in 2007. Although he doesn’t have play-calling input in 2007, his work on the offensive line is considered a key to the Cowboys 13-3 season.

The Bad News: Sparano’s role appears to take a back seat in 2007 after a rising star under Parcells. Jason Garrett comes in and asserts control of the play-calling; leaving Sparano to focus on the offensive line.

The Good News: Sparano wouldn’t have the Dolphins head coaching job if not for his work in Dallas. He clearly earned Parcells’ trust and respect, and managed to stay in Dallas despite a coaching change. The Cowboys offense grew from mediocrity to elite during his tenure, and the offensive line and running game were both bright spots.

It should come as no surprise that Tony Sparano is, by all accounts, on the verge of being named the Dolphins new head coach. According to several reports, GM Jeff Ireland took one of Wayne Huizenga’s private jets to Dallas today to pick up Sparano and make the hiring official after weeks of conjecture.

Sparano’s name surfaced almost immediately after Bill Parcells took over football operations. Sparano, who held the title of Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line in Dallas this year was a holdover from Parcells’ staff. In 2006, he was the co-coordinator with Todd Haley, and was heavily involved in the play-calling.

Whether this is a sound hire or not, time will tell. But its one that fits into the Parcells mold. Sparano is a tough guy by reputation, believes in a punishing ground attack and controlling the time of possession. And he certainly is a known commodity for both Parcells and the Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland.

Norm Chow has been fired by the Tennessee Titans as offensive coordinator.

“I appreciate all of the hard work and contributions he made to the organization during his time here, but I have decided to go in a different direction and will start the process of finding a new offensive coordinator,” Fisher said in the statement.

The move may come as a surprise to some given Chow’s reputation as an offensive guru, but observers closer to the situation would argue it was inevitable given Chow’s growing impatience with Vince Young’s development. There are reports that Chow will return to the Pac-10 as UCLA’s offensive coordinator; but either way, his time under Jeff Fisher has now come to a close.

Was Chow’s time in Tennessee a success? It’s difficult to say considering Chow stepped in at the very end of Steve McNair’s tenure and was asked to mentor a raw but promising young QB in Vince Young. For comparison sake, let’s look at Tennessee’s offensive rankings in Chow’s three seasons compared to the three prior seasons (under OC Mike Heimerdinger):

Rushing Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

Chow’s rushing offense was more productive, on average. The Titans produced more rushing yards and more rushing TDs with fewer carries. But remember this included a mobile Vince Young, and even with the improvement, Tennessee failed to produce top-10 offensive rushing totals in any category over Chow’s 3-year span.

Passing Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

This is where Chow failed to earn his paycheck. Vince Young regressed mightily in 2007, and overall Chow’s passing offenses paled in comparison to Heimerdinger’s. Chow’s star was bright BECAUSE of the work with young quarterbacks. He was responsible for developing Steve Young and Ty Detmer while at BYU, Philip Rivers while at NC State and Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC. His inability to bring Young along is, no doubt, where the rubber failed to meet the road.

Total Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

When your passing numbers are pedestrian, it usually guarantees that total offensive rankings aren’t going to be complimentary, either. In Chow’s case, his Titans ranked just 22nd in total yards and 20th in total points, on average, a material drop from the 12th and 11th place, rankings, respectively in the 2002-2004 period.

Will he or won’t he?

As expected, the Baltimore Ravens have made Jason Garrett an offer to replace Brian Billick as head coach. And, equally as expected, Jerry Jones is trying desperately to get some time with Garrett to convince him to stay in Dallas. Wouldn’t we all like to be a fly on the wall right now?

From various and sundry sources, we’re hearing:

• Garrett’s wife came to Baltimore with him and has been touring the city and looking at real estate today
• Garrett has apparently presented a comprehensive list of assistant coaches, alleged to include Cam Cameron and Dom Capers
• Jerry Jones has promised to match any financial offer from Baltimore, but it’s unclear whether he is willing to promise Garrett the head coaching job in 2008
• Baltimore (understandably) wants an answer before he leaves the city

As I said yesterday, Dallas could be the fly in the ointment. But if Baltimore is insisting on Garrett’s decision before he leaves town, that removes a lot of Jones’ leverage. If Garrett genuinely has two former NFL head coaches lined up as his coordinators, I can’t imagine he will say NO unless Jerry Jones somehow promises him the head coaching job in 2008.

While Cowboys fans may not be happy about the Giants surprising win this weekend in Big D, Ravens fans may have gotten exactly what they were hoping for. Jason Garrett, the Cowboys OC and this year’s hottest head coaching candidate, is heading to Baltimore for a second interview. Garrett, who is also considering a 2nd interview in Atlanta, appears to be the odds on favorite, particularly now that Marty Schottenheimer has officially closed the door on interviewing.

Thus far, the Ravens have interviewed five candidates:

• Jim Caldwell, Assistant Head Coach/WR Coach (Indianapolis)
• John Harbaugh, Secondary Coach (Philadelphia)
• Rex Ryan, Defensive Coordinator (Baltimore)
• Brian Schottenheimer, Offensive Coordinator (New York Jets)
• Tony Sparano, Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line Coach (Dallas)

The Cowboys could be the fly in the ointment here, particularly if Jerry Jones wants to keep Garrett badly enough. Recall, Garrett was hired by Jones BEFORE Wade Phillips, and was given the ethereal title of “either offensive coordinator OR head coach.” If Jones thinks Garrett is the real deal, he may have to do something drastic in order to keep him in the fold.

I’ve always maintained that Pete Carroll would return to the NFL ranks eventually; but that it would take complete control over a franchise and a legitimate chance to win consistently. I also thought it would probably come on the West Coast; where Carroll has enjoyed so much success as the coach at USC.

A lot of my fellow Footballguys have questioned my assertion, wondering a) why Carroll would ever want to leave the confines of USC where he can contend for major bowls every year and make as much as most NFL coaches, and b) why an NFL team would be willing to throw Carroll all the $$$ in the world given the recent lack of success college coaches have brought to bear.

Today comes news that Carroll is genuinely interested in the Atlanta Falcons job.

USC coach Pete Carroll is interested in the Atlanta Falcons’ head coach opening and is expected to speak with Atlanta owner Arthur Blank via phone Wednesday, sources at the American Football Coaches Convention in Anaheim told ESPN’s Joe Schad.

Blank is expected to offer full control of personnel decisions to Carroll and the sources said that is what intrigues Carroll most. Carroll is currently on vacation in Hawaii.

The Falcons’ interest in talking to Carroll about their opening was first reported Tuesday night by ESPN.com’s Len Pasquarelli.

While I am on record against college coaches making the transition to the NFL; Coach Carroll is an exception. He is a 2-time NFL head coach and is, for all intents and purposes, an “NFL guy.” Now that doesn’t mean his success at USC will translate into the NFL; particularly for a franchise in such dire shape as the Falcons. BUT…if there were a college coach I would be willing to take a chance on, it’s him.

Joe Gibbs announced his retirement today; citing a desire to spend more time with his family. While the move is certainly understandable given Gibbs’ age, the stresses of coaching an NFL team, and the turmoil surrounding the Redskins’ season (most notably the death of Sean Taylor)…the move surprised many because the Skins are coming off a playoff season and owner Daniel Snyder allegedly had a 2-year extension on the table.

Now that the decision is final, the questions turn toward the future:

• Who will replace Gibbs at the helm?
• If DC Gregg Williams gets the job, will OC Al Saunders stick around?
• Likewise, if Saunders lands the top job, will Williams look for work elsewhere?

Those questions will be answered in due time, but today was a day for reflection. Specifically, was Joe Gibbs’ second tenure with the Redskins a success?  That’s a difficult question to answer, and contributors to our message board weighed in on all sides of the argument:

• 57.8% said “Yes”
• 42.2% said “No”

Redman  says it was clearly a success, but not one that necessarily showed up in the win column:

It’s a success that unfortunately is not fully reflected in the W/L column.

In 2003 this was a team that was reeling from an embarrassing coaching failure in Spurrier, that had frighteningly little talent on the roster, an owner with the reputation (at that time deserving) of meddling and not even knowing enough about football to know what he didn’t know, and no plan for the future. The morale was low and the culture of the team was defeatist. There was not a lot of team toughness.

Joe changed all of that. This roster is stocked with talent, and I’m not talking about fantasy football talent but real NFL talent that includes role players, special teams guys, etc.

Koya considers his tenure a mild success:

Successful? Yes. Mildly.

Mostly because when Gibbs stepped in, the Franchise was in disarray and looked as if it may fall of the NFL cliff of proud, winning franchises for a while. He righted the ship, brought them back to respectability and made the playoffs twice in four years.

Not an astounding success, but more success than failure considering where the franchise is today as compared with 4 years ago.

I disagreed because I think ultimately Joe Gibbs, Daniel Snyder and the Redskins players wouldn’t deem their accomplishments over the last 4 years as having met their own expectations:

I’m sorry, but a sub-.500 record in four seasons with one playoff win was NOT what Redskins fans, Daniel Snyder, Joe Gibbs and football pundits wanted to see. While it wasn’t an outright failure, bringing back the franchise’s hero out of retirement and having him shuffle off with zero division titles wasn’t “successful” IMHO. Just look at it from the perspective of his division:

In the four seasons:

• Philadelphia (37-27: 0.578), 2 Playoff Appearances, 2 Division Titles, 1 Super Bowl Appearance
• New York (35-29: 0.547), 3 Playoff Appearances, 0 Division Titles, 0 Super Bowl Appearances but still alive in ‘07
• Dallas (37-27: 0.578), 2 Playoff Appearances, 1 Division Title, 0 Super Bowl Appearances but 1 seed in ‘07
• Washington (30-34: 0.469), 2 Playoff Appearances, 0 Division Titles, 0 Super Bowl Appearances

What do you think? Was Joe Gibbs (inarguably one of the best coaches in NFL history) successful in his return? And does the Redskins performance over the next few years play a role in how we ultimately view Gibbs last four seasons?

Brian Billick told the world he was coming back in 2008 shortly after losing his 7th consecutive game:

“I’m going to be back,” Billick said at his news conference Monday, according to The Baltimore Sun.

Unfortunately, there were two problems with his prognostication:

1. His team proceeded to lose to the 0-13 Dolphins the following Sunday
2. The Ravens owner, Steve Bisciotti, never publicly backed him up

OOPS.

Today the Ravens fired Brian Billick despite the widely held expectation he would return for another season. Billick had signed a 4-year extension prior to the 2007 season; but that wasn’t enough to obscure the calamitous downfall of a 5-win season.

When asked about the move, Bisciotti said:

“I just changed my mind, I can’t explain it to you.”

…and there you go.

You can be sure of a few things: 

1. Billick, just 53 years old, will absolutely be a head coach in the NFL again (if he wants to). Consider the list of re-treads that get hired for jobs; and then compare their resumes to that of a 53-year old, Super Bowl winning head coach.
2. The Ravens vacancy will be among the most coveted this offseason:
   1. 13 wins in 2006
   2. Myriad injuries in 2007
   3. A young owner willing to spend money
   4. A loyal fan base
   5. A proven, top-tier general manager
3. Billick is unlikely to accept a job as an offensive coordinator; if he doesn’t find any suitable offers for a head coaching job in 2008, expect him to choose broadcasting as an alternative

OK, we still have a week left in the season, but as someone that covers the NFL coaching carousel for the site each year, it’s never too early to start handicapping the field. For starters, this has the makings of a relatively benign NFL offseason. Hirings are cyclical and after a robust few offseasons, it appears that a majority of coaches will be back in 2008 for various and sundry reasons. As you’ll see in our breakdown, I would be surprised if we had more than five head coaching chances in 2008, and that includes Atlanta which is already in the works. With only a week left, things could change for the better or worse for a few coaches on the bubble, but for now, I’m not expecting a bloodbath.

THE BEDROCK

…these guys are all but certain to return in 2008

• Bill Belichick, New England — Does this really need an explanation?
• Tony Dungy, Indianapolis — Won more games in 2008 than in 2007 Super Bowl year; he’s the Colts coach for as long as he wants
• Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville — 11+ wins, building a consistent program, made the right call at QB
• Wade Phillips, Dallas — Took the Cowboys to the top of the NFC in his first year
• Mike McCarthy, Green Bay — Took the Packers to the 2 seed in a year when most thought it was a mistake for Brett Favre to return
• Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh – Stepped into enormous shoes and proceeded to lead the Steelers back to the top of their division
• Mike Holmgren, Seattle — Another division title; despite Shaun Alexander’s struggles
• Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay — Another division title; solid resurgence after a rough 2006
• Norv Turner, San Diego — Rocky start but rounded the team into form, winning the division year again
• Jeff Fisher, Tennessee – Had the Titans in contention despite a subpar 2nd season from Vince Young

SAFE DESPITE A SUBPAR 2007

…these guys appear safe despite 2007 seasons that didn’t turn out the way they hoped

• Brad Childress, Minnesota – Childress could lead the Vikings to the playoffs in which case he probably doesn’t belong in this group; but either way he should have done enough to earn another season in Minnesota. Look for the Vikes to bring in a proven veteran QB to “challenge” Tarvaris Jackson next year
• Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona – An up-and-down year that leaves plenty of questions; but Whisenhunt did enough in his first season to keep Cardinals fans optimistic. Another season honing/rebuilding the offensive line and (hopefully) better health at QB/WR and on defense will allow the Cards to challenge for the playoffs in 2008
• Gary Kubiak, Houston — Much like the Cardinals, Houston didn’t make the leap to playoff contender this year despite being heralded as a sleeper; but Kubiak’s offensive system is taking shape. He got solid production out of two QBs, and the running game was productive with a revolving cast of mediocre backs.
• Dick Jauron, Buffalo – Jauron had the Bills playing tough all year, and kept the team competitive despite moving to an all-rookie backfield. Ownership reportedly loves him and will give him at least another season or two to see if he can turn the Bills into a contender.
• Sean Payton, New Orleans — Last year’s coach of the year got off to a rough start, but the Saints pulled themselves back to respectability and Payton has shown enough to be on rock solid footing heading into 2008.
• Lovie Smith, Chicago — An appearance in last year’s Super Bowl should give Smith doubters plenty of pause. The team needs to find stability at QB; and even some minor luck when it comes to the injury bug on defense would’ve had this team contending.

GUYS WHO CAN NAME THEIR OWN TERMS

…these three coaches will be back at the helm IF they want to

• Joe Gibbs, Washington – Gibbs has the Redskins on the brink of a playoff berth despite injuries to his QB, the death of Sean Taylor, and offensive line problems. The team reportedly offered him a multi-year extension but it wouldn’t shock many to see Gibbs retire again to concentrate on his racing team. We should know whether he’s staying or going shortly after the Redskins season concludes.
• Andy Reid, Philadelphia — Andy Reid will return to the Eagles if he wants to, it’s as simple as that. Despite a lot of noise in the media and among Philly fans, owner Jeffrey Lurie remains firmly in Reid’s camp. Recent comments by Reid indicate he will be back, but let’s leave the door open until he formally closes it.
• Mike Shanahan, Denver – Shanahan seems to have a job in Denver for life, but at some point you have to wonder if he needs/wants to change jobs to find a new challenge. It’s been a long time since Denver was a playoff factor; and this year’s losing season might cause Shanny to at least consider another opportunity. Ultimately though we expect him back in Denver in 2008.

PHOENIXES RISING FROM THE ASHES

…these coaches seemed like goners but will now be very hard to fire

• Tom Coughlin, New York Giants — Coughlin was considered by most to be a dead man walking. New GM, lame duck status, the perception of poor team morale…yet Coughlin led the Giants to a 10+ win season, a 3rd consecutive playoff berth, and seems likely to get a multi-year extension versus a pink slip.
• Romeo Crennel, Cleveland — This preseason Cleveland seemed destined for yet another atrocious year; likely costing Crennel and GM Phil Savage their jobs. But a winning season, the solidification of the offensive line, the emergence of a potent offense and young building blocks make Crennel’s position far healthier than it appeared in August.

THE MISSOURI (SHOW ME STATE) CREW

…we expect these coaches to return in 2008 but they have A LOT to prove next season

• Brian Billick, Baltimore – Billick and management claim he’ll be back in 2008; so we have no reason to think otherwise for now. But the loss to Miami and yet another season of offensive ineptitude raise serious questions about whether Billick is the right man for this job. [Update (12/31): Looks like Billick counted his chickens before they were hatched, he was fired today.]
• Herm Edwards, Kansas City — Herm was hand-picked to replace Dick Vermeil yet two seasons into his tenure and things look a lot like they did in New York. He’s consistent and accountable, players seem to like playing for him, but the Xs and Os and a very conservative offense limit his team’s success. It would be foolish to replace him for the sake of it, but he needs to get the Chiefs on a winning track in 2008 or else.
• Lane Kiffin, Oakland — Kiffin is the youngest head coach in the league and took a job with less-than-ideal circumstances. He doesn’t have to make the playoffs next year, but he does have to show an ability to maximize the team’s talent, as well as bringing JaMarcus Russell along relatively quickly. Al Davis isn’t a patient man and at his age, he certainly isn’t above firing Kiffin two years into his tenure.
• Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati — The Bengals defense continues to struggle; and that’s Marvin Lewis’ wheelhouse. Yet, the Bengals were in sorry shape before Lewis came aboard and it seems unlikely ownership would be ready to condemn him after one subpar season. If he can’t get the Bengals back to respectability next year; all bets are off.
• Eric Mangini, New York Jets – What a difference a year makes. Hailed as “Mangenius” in his 1st season, the Jets were among this season’s worst teams; with major questions in nearly every facet of the game. There’s no doubt Mangini returns in 2008; but he can’t afford another losing season.
• Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions — Marinelli’s Lions showed a lot of improvement this year, and despite a 2nd half swoon were legitimate playoff contenders for most of the season. He also benefits from the fact that Matt Millen likely doesn’t have another hire left; so as Marinelli goes, so too does Millen. The team needs to address major issues on both sides of the ball in 2008 though, or else we could see a new GM in 2009 and a new head coach with him.

HEADS YOU’RE FIRED, TAILS YOU’RE A LAME DUCK IN 2008

…although these coaches could also return for another season, we expect them to get the ax

• John Fox, Carolina – Ownership could look at the injury to Jake Delhomme and the revolving door at QB since as a reason to bring Fox back. But his once bright star has faded and, arguably, the Panthers team underachieved more than any other in the NFC. The continued lack of offensive punch, and the uninspired play by the defense suggests ownership would be justified in turning the keys over to another driver. That said, the Panthers may gamble on Bill Cowher in 2009; thus keeping Fox around for another go around in 2008. [Update (12/27): Adam Schefter is reporting that the Panthers intend to bring back John Fox for the 2008 season]
• Scott Linehan, St. Louis – The Rams have won a few games in the 2nd half; which might be enough to save Linehan. But the team regressed in a lot of ways this year and it can’t all be blamed on the injury to Steven Jackson. Whether Linehan remains likely comes down to who Rams ownership thinks is available as his replacement.

DEARLY DEPARTED

…it would be quite surprising to see these coaches back at the helm in 2008

• Cam Cameron, Miami – A 1-win season is bad enough to be one and done; but now that Bill Parcells has been brought in to run the organization, you can be sure he’ll want one of “his” guys to coach the franchise.
• Mike Nolan, San Francisco — The 49ers have gotten worse in a season when most expected them to finally return to playoff form. This is as much an condemnation of the personnel department as the coach; but based on ownerships recent comments; they are looking at wholesale changes next year which likely includes trying to bring in a coach/GM with more gravitas.
• Emmitt Thomas, Atlanta – No disrespect to Thomas, but his status as “interim” coach for the final 3 games of this season is exactly that; interim. The Falcons will bring in a new head coach (and probably a new GM) next year in hopes of erasing one of the bleakest seasons in NFL history.

Agree/Disagree? Love to hear your thoughts.

Over the weekend as I was sitting in the rainy cold air waiting for my cursed beloved Eagles to kick off what would amount to their 8th loss of the season, my buddies and I were discussing the NFL Coaching Carousel and which coaches we thought would be most likely to be shown the door.

Bobby Petrino was NOT one of them. Despite a miserable Falcons season, Petrino was in his first year, had made the leap from college to the pros, and presumably would be given a mulligan on the season given the distractions of Michael Vick and the inability of Petrino to install his offense.

Well…looks like Coach Petrino didn’t feel as comfortable with the Falcons as owner Arthur Blank did with him.

Bobby Petrino resigns from the Falcons, reportedly close to deal with University of Arkansas

It’s unusual for an NFL coach to resign mid-season, but it makes sense when said coach has a particular collegiate job on the line. If reports are to be believed, Petrino may even coach the Razorbacks in their upcoming bowl game.

Regardless of what you may think of this particular situation, any NFL owner and GM would have to be out of their minds to seriously consider a college head coach as their next NFL hire given recent history:

• Bobby Petrino (3-10 with Falcons) — Leaves Atlanta before the end of the regular season; returning to the college ranks just one season after leaving Louisville
• Nick Saban (15-17 with Miami) — Leaves LSU (where he won a national title) to come to Miami and departs after two losing seasons to return to the SEC (Alabama)
• Steve Spurrier (12-20 with Washington) — Leaves University of Florida (where he was an icon) to coach the Redskins, only to go back to South Carolina after two losing seasons in D.C.
• Butch Davis (24-35 with Cleveland) — Davis, a national championship winner at the University of Miami, returns to the pros as the Browns head coach only to deliver 3.5 seasons of ineptitude before being fired midway into the 2004 season
• Mike Riley (14-34 with San Diego) — Mike Riley puts in a solid 8-8 rookie season as the Chargers head coach, but then delivers 6 wins over the next two years before returning to the Pac-10

What’s amazing about this list is that, other than Mike Riley, each of these coaches were atop elite NCAA programs and basically had jobs for as long as they wanted them. But they each were drawn by the allure of the NFL; which has the perception of being the ultimate challenge for a football coach. But while the NFL is certainly the pinnacle in many respects, it’s a vastly different environment than the NCAAs.

I told you all that Atlanta would be fantasy Armageddon this year, but Falcons fans and owner Arthur Blank deserve better than what they’ve had to deal with this year.

It’s pretty stunning to think that an entire generation of young football fans have grown up without thinking of the 49ers as a championship caliber franchise. The team that has not one, but two Hall of Fame QBs through the 80s and much of the 90s, has struggled mightily in recent years; and now finds itself 2-8, having lost 8 straight games.

Today, 49ers owner Denise DeBartolo York promised sweeping changes in order to right the ship:

“I would consider anything,” DeBartolo York told the Chronicle. “I think that we have to get the minds together, the powers that be. I don’t think I can start to delve into the entire football operation right now. I would need the whole panel of people there.”

DeBartolo York told the Chronicle that the panel would include her husband and co-owner, John York; son Jed York; vice president of player personnel Scot McCloughan; vice president of football operations Lal Heneghan; and Nolan. DeBartolo York told the Chronicle that the head coach would no longer be the final authority on draft or player personnel decisions.

The last bolded statement is the doozy. A lot of people scratched their heads when the 49ers essentially gave control of the franchise to Mike Nolan; a guy that had never been an NFL head coach before. Now, it seems, the 49ers are FINALLY going to bring in a tried and true NFL mind to run football operations.

What that means is no one’s jobs are safe beyond 2008 at the latest. It would be stunning to think that a veteran GM would come aboard without assurances that he could hire his own head coach after a year of evaluating Nolan (if not immediately). And by the same token, QB Alex Smith will be in a make-or-break situation next season as the team will be in the financial position to consider a new direction.

Just how bad has it gotten in San Francisco? Consider:

• The offense is on pace for just 3,915 yards of total offense (32nd in the league); this would actually be the 2nd worst offensive performance of the decade
• The ONLY team to have a worse offensive season was…the 2005 49ers which put up a meager 3,879 yards
• The passing attack is averaging an anemic 4.9 yards per attempt; by far the worst of the decade
• The team is on pace for only 8 TD passes, which would only be “topped” by the 2006 Oakland Raiders (7 TD passes)
• The team is on pace for only 16 offensive TDs (passing and rushing), which again is only better than the 2006 Raiders over the last decade

Andy Reid was an offensive lineman in college; and has the body type to prove it. He’s also well schooled in the West Coast offense and has always put a premium on great pass protection. The core of the Eagles dominant NFC East run over the last seven years has been the offensive line; an area that Reid has had more hits than misses. Before McNabb was the 2nd pick, the Eagles brought aboard RT Jon Runyan to anchor a rebuilt line. Tra Thomas soon followed, and most recently the team has hit on guys like Jamaal Jackson, Todd Herremans and most importantly All Pro Shawn Andrews.

It’s with that backdrop that we saw an inexplicable display of ineptitude last night. For those who didn’t watch Sunday Night Football, the Eagles gave up twelve (yes…12!) sacks; an NFL record, to a New York Giants defense that struggled to stop anyone in its prior three games.

TWELVE SACKS…for a team that had allowed just 5 over the first three weeks.

The main reason for the debacle lies with 2nd year backup Winston Justice. With William “Tra” Thomas inactive last night, the Eagles turned to the former USC Trojan at left tackle. To say he was beaten like a rented mule would be an affront to mules everywhere.

While Justice’s struggles were startling, and likely make it all but impossible for him to start on the Eagles line anytime soon, if ever, the real problem gets back to Andy Reid and his coaching staff. How did they not make a change? How could they not commit a tight end and/or back to protect Justice? How do they not go to max protect?

Last time I checked, their franchise passer is coming off a torn ACL just ten months ago. And they let him get teed off on worse than any QB in league history?

As an Eagles fan, I can only hope that William Thomas is back in the lineup soon. But either way, it’s clear that when Thomas’ career comes to a close in a year or two, his replacement isn’t currently on the roster.

With the NFL’s confirmation this afternoon that the New England Patriots have violated league rules by videotaping the Jets defensive signals in this past Sunday’s game, the natural follow up question becomes, what might the penalty be?

We know from Roger Goodell’s actions this season with regard to player personal conduct that he wants to set a high bar for professional and personal behavior to protect the league and its image. Further, we now know that the Patriots have been caught taping the sideline signals of at least two other teams. Interestingly enough, the Boston Herald article above notes that teams were specifically warned about this behavior during the offseason:

“Earlier this summer, a league spokesman said all 32 teams received a reminder that it is illegal to videotape opposing signals, adding that cameras can’t be used on the sidelines, in the booth, or in the locker room during a game.”

So given this daunting set of circumstances, what might the penalty against the Patriots consist of?

The only past penalties I can recall that have been levied by the NFL against its teams for organized cheating were imposed for salary cap violations. The Niners, Broncos (on two different occasions), and Steelers have all lost draft choices and been fined for accounting irregularities with the salary cap within the last decade. The penalties for these infractions were as follows:

Niners (2000):

Fines:

• $400,000 paid by Carmen Policy
• $200,000 paid by Dwight Clark
• $300,000 paid by the team
• $350,000 paid by the player agents involved (Leigh Steinberg, Jeff Moorad and Gary Wichard)

Forfeited Draft Picks:

• 2001 5th Round
• 2002 3rd Round

Broncos (2001):

Fines:

• $968,000 paid by the team

Forfeited Draft Pick:

• 2002 3rd Round

Broncos (2004):

Fines:

• $950,000 paid by the team
• $100,000 paid by an anonymous former player’s agent

Forfeited Draft Pick:

• 2005 3rd Round

Steelers (2000):

Salary Cap Hit:

• $400,000 counted against the team’s 2000 Salary Cap

Fines:

• $150,000 paid by the team

Forfeited Draft Pick:

• 2001 3rd Round

Ominously, the 2000 Chicago Tribune story above detailing the 49ers cap violations contains the following warning:

“The league then decided to increase its power to punish future violations by allowing for suspensions of a year, fines of up to $3.5 million, and the loss of two No. 1 draft choices.”

It’s not clear whether this Sword of Damocles is reserved strictly for those who violate the league’s salary cap rules or whether it might be available as a remedy against other forms of organized cheating. And how much more — or less — egregious the Patriots’ violation of league rules is compared to salary cap shenanigans that unfold over a period of years remains to be seen.

But what is evident from even a cursory examination is that the NFL reserves the right to fine not only the team involved but also the cheating ringleaders as individuals. Based on the warning above, suspensions of individuals for up to a year also appear to be within the NFL’s discretion as a potential remedy. And the loss of one or more future draft picks for teams proven to have engaged in organized cheating must be considered commonplace.

Given Roger Goodell’s recent crusade to polish up the NFL’s public image and his willingness to make public examples of those who would tarnish it, I can only side with T.O. — “get your popcorn ready.”

OK, bear with me. I realize that fantasy football owners probably could care less whether Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson are at the helm of the Browns because neither are going to see the light of day in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues. But the starting QB situation is germane for several obvious reasons:

• Braylon Edwards — Drafted as a top 20-25 wideout in most leagues
• Kellen Winslow — Drafted at a top 5-8 tight end in most leagues
• Jamal Lewis — Drafted as a top 20 RB in most leagues

While no one should be surprised the Browns got waxed by the Steelers in the Week One opener, as a football fan I was baffled at Romeo Crennel’s decision to bench Charlie Frye in the middle of the 2nd quarter. I get that Charlie Frye has no business being an NFL starting QB. I also get that on the margin, Derek Anderson appeared to play better. All that said, I found the decision to pull Frye just incredulous. I mean, Crennel and Chuds spent the entire offseason vacillating between Frye and Anderson. Then when it looks to everyone that Quinn should probably be thrown to the wolves because a green, rookie Quinn is better than either, Crennel and Phil Savage go out of their way to “teach the kid a lesson” and keep him out of the starting lineup.

But the point is, they supposedly spent all preseason evaluating Frye and Anderson. Then, after one half of the first game against a dominant defense/division rival; they change their minds!?!?? To me that sends such a strong message that the coaches are flying blind; that they have no clue and they themselves are incapable of evaluating the QB position on their own team. Pulling Frye like that essentially makes him a eunuch. How can they possibly justify putting Frye into another game at this point? They can’t. So why not just trade/release him?

We’re having an interesting discussion about this in the Shark Pool today. While many see my point of view, others think it was a move Crennel had to make.

jurb26 writes:

Did you watch the game? The guy looked absolutely lost out there. I didn’t see a single pass that was on target and he had worse pocket awareness than Grossman vs. SD. Clev had 35 yds of total offense in Frye’s 7 drives and 2 turnovers, 1 Int (which was god awful) and 1 fumble. They were down 17-0 on top of it. Sometimes bringing in a fresh QB sparks up the offense. In Anderson’s 1st drive, he took Clev 45 yds down field (this was the 1st time the even crossed mid field!) and put them in scoring position until he was sacked for a 10 yd loss and fumbled. So, it appears it was not a bad decision.

Nxmehta sees eye-to-eye with me, and further elaborates on what this benching might do to the Browns already fragile locker room:

What really scares me is the effect this move will have on locker room morale. I mean the Browns already have a hard enough time convincing themselves that they can win, but when the leadership shows that they can’t steer the ship in the first minutes of the first game, then how are the players supposed to believe that they can win? If you look at the postgame interviews from the official site you can see it all over their faces. Braylon Edwards was asked straight up if he thought that the team had the mental toughness to bounce back for next week. He started out saying well, “if you asked me last year i would say we’re really fragile and no, but this year we have new guys.” You could clearly that he was shaken. Charlie Frye’s interview was even worse- he looked more lost and fragile than he did on the field.

What’s your opinion? If Anderson gets the start in Week Two and stinks up the joint, can the Browns go back to Frye without completely losing the team? Do they have to go with Quinn if/when Anderson struggles? Would putting Quinn in this early be the wrong move even if he’s the team’s best QB?

You can’t blame Lane Kiffin for his naivety. He’s young, inexperienced, and fresh from the college football world. So it’s with that backdrop that I can KIND OF understand why he’s trying to play coy with who his Week One starter is going to be. For those not paying attention (and honestly, many fantasy owners probably haven’t given the Raiders QBs much thought), Lane Kiffin has been keeping a lid on which QB, Josh McCown or Daunte Culpepper, will start Week One against the Detroit Lions.

Josh McCown vs. Daunte Culpepper

I could be wrong, but something tells me Culpepper might edge out McCown for the start, what do you think?

UPDATE: According to Adam Schefter, Lane Kiffin has officially succumbed to whatever ails Al Davis and has lost his mind. He’s prepared to name Josh McCown the starter in Week One.

Jets HC Eric Mangini may be trying to establish his own identity, but clearly he took a lot of Bill Belichick’s methods to heart. One of the most ingratiating is, of course, the way he treats injuries. Which is to say, he gives us almost nothing to work with. Thomas Jones, who started the preseason solidly in the top 15-20 of fantasy RBs, has seen his ADP drop by a round or two because of his sore Achilles. While many are left to wonder whether he’s 100% healthy; I think the answer lies in the Jets 53-man roster.

When cuts were announced the other day, the Jets were left with ONLY TWO TAILBACKS on the active roster: Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. There aren’t many NFL teams that choose to keep only two tailbacks; does anyone think the Jets would be willing to do that if Jones wasn’t 100% healthy? I certainly don’t.

An article on the Bills official website discusses Dick Jauron’s decision to go with a running back-by-committee (RBBC) approach this season.

Buffalo’s head coach has stated more than once to Buffalobills.com that he’s leaning toward a running back by committee approach this season. With all of the final four teams standing last season (New Orleans, Chicago, Indianapolis, New England) profiting greatly from a two-horse offensive backfield, Dick Jauron remains in favor of a group effort for 2007.

Apparently, this is what you get when you put an Ivy Leaguer in charge of a football team. While I applaud Jauron for recognizing a commonality among last year’s four top playoff teams, his decision to let that guide him is the epitome of not seeing the forest for the trees.

While it’s certainly true that all four teams in the championship rounds were RBBC a year ago, THREE OF THEM ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THAT POLICY THIS YEAR…

• Chicago — Thomas Jones is off to New York and the Bears run game is beholden to Cedric Benson
• Indianapolis — Dominic Rhodes is serving his suspension in Oakland, while 2nd year Joseph Addai gets a full workload in Indy
• New England — The Pats let Corey Dillon “retire” and will let Laurence Maroney carry the load

Dick, before you go ahead and convince yourself that Marshawn Lynch shouldn’t carry the rock A LOT, take a look at your model teams and realize that they too are going with a one-back situation this year.

Today we heard the bad news that Bill Walsh lost his long battle with leukemia and has passed away. Take a look at his years with the 49ers and you’ll see that he was, above all, a winner. His teams were 92 - 59 - 1 (0.609 win %) in the regular season, and more importantly, 10-4 during post-season play. His teams won 3 Super Bowls (1981, 1984, 1988). My first memory of watching a pro football game is the 49ers 1981 victory over Cincinnati 26-21 - it was the last game I ever watched with my grandfather.

Walsh drafted and developed QB Joe Montana (a Hall of Fame player); drafted and developed WR Jerry Rice (a Hall of Fame player); he traded for and developed Steve Young (a Hall of Fame Player) as Montana’s eventual successor. He was a supremely astute judge of football talent, and knew how to bring out the very best in his players.

Of course, Walsh is also legendary for introducing the West Coast offense to the pros, and for the remarkable tree of coaches who either played for him or coached for him (and the legion of coaches now in the league that were disciples of his immediate heirs) - Mike Holmgren, George Seifert, Sam Wyche and many others were coaches for Walsh before they became head coaches themselves. Brian Billick was also heavily influenced by Walsh (they wrote Finding the Winning Edge together).

Bill Walsh was one of the greatest football coaches ever, in any era, and will be sorely missed by the game. Goodbye Mr. Walsh, we won’t forget you.