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September 4, 2008

Bears fans Soldier on…Hester and Lloyd are your starting receivers

Filed under: Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester, CHI, Chicago, WR, NFC North, Bears — Jason Wood @ 1:07 pm

Lovie Smith made his name as a defensive coach, and so it’s completely understandable that he would focus more on that side of the ball as head coach in Chicago. But is it possible that he’s not paying attention to the offense, at all? Sarcasm aside, it’s got to be tough for Bears fans to stomach what has gone with the offensive situation this offseason:

  1. Re-signing QBs Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton — Orton and Grossman have combined to throw for 8,254 yards with 43 TDs and 48 interceptions. Their collective completion rate (53.6%), yards per attempt (6.1) and passer rating (68.0) are horrible; and yet the Bears re-signed them both to compete for the starting job. Somehow the Jets landed Brett Favre, the Dolphins got Chad Pennington, J.T. O’Sullivan emerged out of nowhere in San Francisco and yet the Bears felt their only alternative was to go back to the well. Yikes.
  2. The release of Cedric Benson — The Bears drafted Matt Forte and signed Kevin Jones to bolster the ground game, but will either have anywhere to run?
  3. An already bad line got worse – The Bears 1st round draft choice, OT Chris Williams underwent surgery in August to repair a herniated disc in his back. He’s out indefinitely and could be done for the year. The Bears were counting on Williams to stabilize an erratic line and are now faced with the displeasure of John St. Clair at left tackle. Yikes, Part II.

Isn’t that enough pain for one group of fans? Unfortunately not because Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun Times is reporting that Devin Hester and Brandon Lloyd are the starting wide receivers for Week One against Indianapolis. While Hester’s explosiveness is undeniable, you can’t feel too good about going into the season with him and Lloyd as the top options.

  • Brandon Lloyd — Lloyd was a starter in San Francisco and was a modest success. He started 15 games in 2005 and amassed career highs of 48 receptions and 733 yards (plus 5 TDs). Unfortunately Lloyd moved to Washington the next year and was to “compete” against Antwaan Randle El for a starting spot. Lloyd ended up with 23 catches in 2006 and failed to score a touchdown. As if that weren’t bad enough, he was persona non grata last year and caught just two passes (2 receptions for 14 yards). It would be one thing if Lloyd was stuck behind a proven group of stud receivers, but Santana Moss had a down year (3 TDs) and Randle El was largely ineffective (1 TD).
  • Devin Hester — Hester caught 20 receptions for 299 yards and 2 TDs last year in limited offensive snaps. As we already noted, he’s clearly a dangerous option in the open field. But what we don’t know is whether Hester has the route discipline, the hands or the size to break press coverage and consistently grab  passes with defenders blanketing him. I’m sure he’ll catch a few deep bombs for scores this year, but can he provide the consistency needed from a starter?

August 14, 2008

Chicago Bears - How NOT to Handle the QB Position

The QB position in Chicago has been a horrid mess for many years, but the ridiculousness (ridiculousity? ridicule-deserving-idiocy?) seems to have reached new heights as of the 2008 training camp. After 23 days of training camp (with one to go), OC Ron Turner had this to say yesterday of his assessment about who leads the contest between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton:

”I really don’t,” offensive coordinator Ron Turner said when asked if he has a sense of who’s ahead.

Maybe Turner should have just said “I really don’t have a clue” and left it at that. How is it possible that the Bears’ offensive coaches could watch 3 weeks worth of practice sessions and still NOT make a determination who will lead the offense? If both players in question are so pathetic, why haven’t the Bears taken steps to bring in a third contender?

It really defies explanation, in my opinion. However, taking a look at the behavior of this organization over the last 20 years (using the Footballguys.com Data Dominator ) tells us that this current situation is really just par for the course up in Chicago. Guess how many times QBs have been swapped in and out of the Bears’ lineup over the past 20 years (1988-2007)? 30? 40? Nope.

During the past 20 years, the Bears have switched/substituted one QB for another 58 times. An average of ~3 different QBs under center each year for the past 20 years! And we’re not talking about a few snaps for the backup in mop-up duty here and there, folks. During the current decade, 24 switches at QB been made by the Bears, with only 3 QBs playing close to a full slate of games in any given year (Jim Miller played in 15 games back in 2001; Orton managed 15 back in 2005; and Grossman  appeared in a full slate of 16 games during the 2006 Super Bowl season). Of all the pass attempts thrown during this decade (4078), Grossman has tossed 900 in his time on the field during regular season (~22%); while Orton has lobbed 447 (~11%).

For comparison’s sake, during the same time span the Colts have sent in their backup QBs for snaps during 6 seasons, for a total of 186 pass attempts (out of 4436 passes attempted by Indianapolis, ~96% of them thrown by Peyton Manning).  

No wonder Muhsin Muhammad recently told SI’s Peter King “That’s right. It’s where receivers go to die.”

July 24, 2008

Flipping a coin? What a depressing state of affairs in CHI

The NFL is amping up training camps and that means fantasy football is right around the corner. The Chicago Bears were one of the first teams to open camp this year and, as you probably know, they are embarking on a good, old-fashioned QB duel this summer between Rex Grossman (who re-signed a one year deal) and Kyle Orton (2-year deal).

While competition is a good thing, particularly for a team that’s struggled to find a consistent signal caller, I couldn’t help but cringe at the following news blurb in the Chicago Tribune (by Vaughn McClure):

Also, Rex Grossman has won the starting quarterback job — for the first day of practice. There was a coin toss at a Wednesday morning quarterback meeting. Kyle Orton called it, but Grossman won it and will run with the first-team offense Wednesday.

A coin toss? Really?

I understand it’s symbolic and no more important than determining who gets “first dibs” on Day One (I’m presuming Orton will start today’s practices off and they’ll alternate from there), but still I think Lovie Smith has to be careful about what kind of symbolism he’s perpetuating.

How many NFL pundits not to mention Bears fans already feel like neither Grossman nor Orton are the answer?

July 15, 2008

Kevin Jones signs in Chicago: Whither Matt Forte?

Filed under: Rookie, FBG, Kevin Jones, Chicago, Free Agent, Matt Forte, NFC North, RB, Injury, Fantasy, Footballguys, Bears — Jason Wood @ 3:40 pm

Kevin Jones signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Bears today. The talented but oft-injured running back lands in one of the few places where he could conceivably earn a large role presuming he’s healthy enough. The Bears parted ways with Cedric Benson earlier this summer and Jones is obviously betting on the opportunity for playing time.

Jones’ talent isn’t in question…

At 5′11″, 221 pounds, Jones is a bruising runner with a straight-ahead style befitting of the smash mouth history of Soldier Field. Although Jones has never been a fantasy star, he has shown considerable promise when healthy:

  • As a rookie, Jones ran for 1,133 yards and caught another 28 passes for 180 yards
  • In 2006, Jones was asked to play a role as a receiver and answered the call with 61 receptions for 520 yards
  • Last year, despite running injured and behind a bad Lions offensive line, he had 8 rushing TDs in just 153 carries

What Jones hasn’t done is put together a full season where all of his myriad talents are simultaneously on display.

Jones’ health, on the other hand, IS in question…

  • Bruised shoulder
  • Hyperextended elbow
  • Concussion
  • Hip pointer
  • Thigh contusion

…those were just some of the reasons Kevin Jones appeared on the injury report early in his career. And those were nothing compared to his two latest maladies:

  • Lisfranc – Jones injured his foot and had to undergo surgery to repair his Lisfranc injury. He surprised many by rehabbing fast enough to get back on the field early in 2007
  • Torn ACL — But that enthusiasm didn’t last for the entire season as Jones tore his ACL late in the 2007 season, putting  him on IR

So if he’s got a torn ACL, how did he work out for teams and why did Chicago sign him?

Jones is proving to be as much a fast healer as he is easily hurt. He, by all accounts, is ahead of the normal schedule for rehabbing a torn ACL and was able to showcase some of his talents (as well as show structural integrity of the knee) at a private workout several weeks ago.

Chicago is taking no risk here. They have need of RB depth, and are committing nothing more than a few hundred thousand dollars this year. Even if Jones isn’t healthy enough to suit up this season, it’s a financial bet worth making. Because if he IS 100% healthy, they’ve landed arguably the best veteran free agent RB on the market.

What does this mean for Matt Forte? 

I wouldn’t read much into the Jones signing if you’re a fan of Matt Forte. Jones is getting the veteran minimum to try an earn a place on the team. That doesn’t obviate the need for a young, workhorse back and the only one of the roster that fits that bill is rookie Matt Forte. On the margin, the Bears may give Forte a few less carries each game if Jones is healthy and sticks on the roster, but don’t think this signing means Forte can’t or won’t win the lead job.

Is there now a greater chance of a true RB-by-Committee approach in Chicago? Unfortunately yes. But at Forte’s current ADP, you don’t have to pay up to get him.

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