Would a Giants Win = Biggest Upset in Super Bowl History?
The Giants are heading to the Super Bowl, earning a rematch against the undefeated Patriots. No matter where your personal allegiances lie, you have to give the Giants credit for a hard earned berth. They won three straight road games against three division champs. They beat the 1st and 2nd seeds, avenging three of their in-season losses in the process. Along the way, the Giants have won an NFL record 10 straight road games.
No one, even the most ardent Giants fan, would argue the Patriots are a heavy favorite. Vegas puts the game a -11 and, if history is any indication, the line tends to grow in the favorite’s direction as the game approaches.
Now that the matchup is set, the discussion has turned to just how big of an upset would it be if the Giants beat the Patriots in two weeks?
Before we attempt to answer that question, we need to recognize that it’s subjective. Not everyone agrees about the best team in history, the best QB in history or the best RB in history…so we can’t expect everyone to agree about the greatest Super Bowl upset in league history, either. That said, here are my thoughts on the matter:
The Point Spread Approach
Personally, I don’t think point spreads are the best arbiter of this kind of discussion; but a lot of people do put faith in the betting line. To that end, the Giants are currently 11-point underdogs. If the spread holds at 11 points, it wouldn’t come close to matching the New York Jets in Super Bowl III. Joe Namath’s team were 17-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. More recently, the New England Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and won outright. In fact, the Giants would be tied for 4th place in SB history, according to point spread:
- Super Bowl III: New York Jets (+18) over Baltimore Colts
- Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots (+14) over St. Louis Rams
- Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs (+12) over Minnesota Vikings
- Super Bowl XXXII: Denver Broncos (+11) over Green Bay Packers
- Super Bowl XLII???: New York Giants (+11) over New England Patriots
The Margin of Victory Approach
Margin of victory is an valuable tool in comparing teams. In a league where the average margin of victory is slightly more than a field goal, margin of victory helps illustrate the best teams; teams that can win handily; whether that be by virtue of an explosive offense or a stifling defense. As you might imagine, teams with a high margin of victory traditionally beat opponents with lower margins of victory; that’s basic math.
Key Talking Points:
- The 2007 New England Patriots set an NFL record for margin of victory (19.7 PPG)
- The 2007 New York Giants margin of victory (1.4 PPG) is the 3rd lowest in Super Bowl history
- 2/3rds of Super Bowl winners have had a better regular season margin of victory than their opponent
- 1/3rd (14 of 41) Super Bowl winners have had a smaller margin of victory than their opponent
Here is a list of the Super Bowl champions that had smaller margins of victory than their opponents:
| Year | SB | Winner | Margin of Victory | Loser | Margin of Victory | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1968 | III | NY Jets | 9.9 | BAL Colts | 18.4 | (8.5) |
| 2001 | XXXVI | NE Patriots | 6.2 | STL Rams | 14.3 | (8.1) |
| 1967 | II | GB Packers | 8.8 | OAK Raiders | 16.8 | (8.0) |
| 2006 | XLI | IND Colts | 4.2 | CHI Bears | 10.8 | (6.6) |
| 1983 | XVIII | LA Raiders | 6.5 | WAS Redskins | 13.0 | (6.5) |
| 1980 | XV | OAK Raiders | 3.7 | PHI Eagles | 10.1 | (6.4) |
| 1969 | IV | KC Chiefs | 13.0 | MIN Vikings | 17.6 | (4.6) |
| 2005 | XL | PIT Steelers | 8.2 | SEA Seahawks | 11.3 | (3.1) |
| 1990 | XXV | NY Giants | 7.7 | BUF Bills | 10.4 | (2.7) |
| 1988 | XXIII | SF 49ers | 4.7 | CIN Bengals | 7.4 | (2.7) |
| 1976 | XI | OAK Raiders | 8.1 | MIN Vikings | 9.2 | (1.1) |
| 1978 | XIII | PIT Steelers | 10.0 | DAL Cowboys | 11.0 | (1.0) |
| 1981 | XVI | SF 49ers | 6.7 | CIN Bengals | 7.3 | (0.6) |
| 1982 | XVII | WAS Redskins | 6.9 | MIA Dolphins | 7.4 | (0.5) |
As you can see, the Jets victory of the Colts stands atop this list, while (surprise, surprise), the Patriots victory over the Rams is a close second.
Now consider the implied differential if New York beat New England:
- New England Margin of Victory = 19.7 PPG
- New York Margin of Victory = 1.4 PPG
- Implied Differential = (18.3)
This would be the most surprising SB victory, BY MORE THAN A FACTOR OF 2X THE PREVIOUS RECORD.
The Winning Percentage Approach
A lot has been made about how we need to “throw the records out” once the playoffs begin. Yet, history shows us that’s really not logical. When push comes to shove, the team with the better regular season record USUALLY wins the Super Bowl; it’s that simple.
Key Talking Points:
- The New England Patriots, the first 16-0 team in history, obviously had a 1.000 winning percentage
- The New York Giants (10-6), had a 0.625 winning percentage
- 10 of 41 (24.3%) Super Bowl champs had a worse winning percentage than their opponent
Here is a list of Super Bowl champs that had worse winning percentages than their opponents:
| Year | Super Bowl | Champ | Win% | Loser | Win% | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1967 | II | Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) | 67.9% | Oakland Raiders (13-1) | 92.9% | -25.0% |
| 2001 | XXXVI | New England Patriots (11-5) | 68.8% | St. Louis Rams (14-2) | 87.5% | -18.8% |
| 1968 | III | New York Jets (11-3) | 78.6% | Baltimore Colts (13-1) | 92.9% | -14.3% |
| 1983 | XVIII | Los Angeles Raiders (12-4) | 75.0% | Washington Redskins (14-2) | 87.5% | -12.5% |
| 2005 | XL | Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) | 68.8% | Seattle Seahawks (13-3) | 81.3% | -12.5% |
| 1988 | XXIII | San Francisco 49ers (10-6) | 62.5% | Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) | 75.0% | -12.5% |
| 1969 | IV | Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) | 78.6% | Minnesota Vikings (12-2) | 85.7% | -7.1% |
| 2006 | XLI | Indianapolis Colts (12-4) | 75.0% | Chicago Bears (13-3) | 81.3% | -6.3% |
| 1980 | XV | Oakland Raiders (11-5) | 68.8% | Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) | 75.0% | -6.3% |
| 1997 | XXXII | Denver Broncos (12-4) | 75.0% | Green Bay Packers (13-3) | 81.3% | -6.3% |
Interestingly, the Packers’ victory over the Raiders in Super Bowl II tops this list [they ranked 3rd based on margin of victory differential], and those were followed by New England over the Rams [2nd in our margin analysis] and Namath’s Jets over the Colts [1st place in the margin analysis].
Now, consider what a Giants victory would imply:
- New England Patriots (16-0) = 1.000% winning percentage
- New York Giants (10-6) = 62.5% winning percentage
- Implied Differential = (-37.5%)
Thinking of this another way, no SB champ in HISTORY has beaten an opponent with more than 3.5 more wins in the regular season, yet were the Giants to win they would have done so finishing SIX GAMES BEHIND the Patriots in the standings.
CONCLUSION
It’s difficult if not impossible to compare eras. In this case, the earliest Super Bowls pitted two entirely different leagues against one another, and football historians would say, as a result, their regular season accomplishments weren’t apples to apples. Therefore, some will always contend that Joe Namath’s New York Jets victory of the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III was the greatest upset in professional football history. The most contemporary upset would be the Patriots victory over the Rams [which ironically started the Patriots dynastic run we’re now dissecting]. By any objective measure, a Giants victory against the Patriots this year would be right up there with those two upsets. To my mind, based on the differential in their respective finishes this season, it WOULD be THE biggest upset in Super Bowl history. But even if you disagree, it’s hard to argue it wouldn’t be AMONG the biggest upsets.
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