NFL free agency is upon us, and big names are already packing their bags (or paying someone to do it) for new cities. Asante Samuel, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Donte Stallworth, and more are all ready to get their new jersey and playbook. Millions of dollars are flying everywhere as big names get signed almost hourly.

Two names are missing off of that list - Michael Turner and Randy Moss.

Let’s talk about Moss first. Sure, Berrian and Stallworth are now in Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively - but there are other WRs that are in the wind right now with their futures uncertain. Everyone is talking about what will happen with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and neither Fitz nor the Cards are happy. Fitzgerald doesn’t want to budge much off of his big payday, which he has earned, but the Cardinals are on the outside looking in with Faneca and others getting signed elsewhere. With a salary cap problem that makes Dan Snyder look like Scott Pioli, Arizona is left out in the cold while the hot stove NFL names ink deals.

So what’s this have to do with Randy Moss? Well, Fitzgerald wants his money but odds are that he also wants to be paid like the best WR in the NFL. Has anyone else considered that Moss’ next contract could set the bar for what any deal has to beat to get to that level? I’ve thought about it and it is starting to make sense. All these talks of trades for Lito Sheppard and a draft choice with the Eagles and other possible scenarios for Fitzgerald would all hinge on a new and cap-friendly contract with Larry’s John Hancock on the bottom. If Randy Moss signs a deal with either the Patriots or another franchise, it sets the high watermark for WR salaries.

The downside for Fitzgerald in this stalemate is two-fold: the Cards cannot wait forever, and there is also the risk that Moss could go the Philadelphia. Arizona does not want to cripple themselves with a massive cap number to keep Fitzgerald, yet the front office is still saying that they are willing to do just that. Odds are that if he won’t renegotiate, the Cardinals would be better served to move him off of their bloated books. The problem for both sides is that every signing like Berrian and Stallworth reduces the chances of a trade, reducing the number of teams that would go hard after Fitzgerald, and also that the longer this drags on the more it hurts Arizona’s chances for improvement by adding more talent.

Look for Randy Moss to make up his mind soon, and I would not be surprised at all to see both Fitz and the Cards celebrate Moss’ decision.

I’ll talk more about Michael Turner and the running backs next.

Asante Samuel, considered the top defensive free agent by most, wasted little time in finding a new home. Today he signed a 6-year, $57mm deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel has an astounding 16 interceptions in the last two seasons, excluding the game-changing picks he made in the playoffs, as well.

Why the Eagles made this move…

Inexplicably, more than a few Eagles fans (and radio hosts) wondered today why this was the Eagles big free agent move. Putting aside the absurdity of questioning the acquisition of the premiere free agent in this year’s crop, there is an extremely obvious reason why this move makes inordinate sense:

• 11 interceptions
• 19 takeaways

The Eagles were among the worst in the league last season at creating turnovers; and that kept a top 10 defense (statistically) from being a real difference maker. Samuel single-handedly changes that dynamic.

But what about Lito Sheppard?

Lito Sheppard is, in his own right, an excellent cornerback and unheralded for his importance to the Eagles defensive scheme. Unfortunately, Sheppard has missed 14 regular season games in the last three seasons and has a reputation for being a “slow healer.” He’s also expressed unhappiness about his contract status.

So is Lito going to be an Eagle in 2008?

There are two telling quotes from Andy Reid today that paint the picture:

1)  “We’re obviously trying to strengthen the defense,” Reid said. “Obviously, I think the cornerback position is very important. When you have an opportunity to get the best one in the business, then you need to look at that. I welcome him aboard, and I know [defensive coordinator] Jim Johnson has great plans for Asante.

2)  Head coach Andy Reid said Samuel will be his starting left cornerback for 2008. Beyond that, Reid said “we’ll work things out from there.”

Lito wants a bigger contract, and is now losing his spot to the league’s highest paid corner. Does that sound like Lito is in the Birds’ plans for 2008?

OK, so what are the Eagles going to do with Lito?

Expect the Eagles to aggressively pursue a trade opportunity. Sheppard is a Pro Bowl corner and signed through 2011; so he’s got immense trade value. Several teams have already expressed an interest in him. What can the Eagles expect back in return? That’s entirely dependent on the team in question. Sheppard could be packaged with one or two of the Eagles draft picks for an upgrade at receiver (think Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgerald) OR he could be swapped for a pass rusher like Jared Allen. Is either move likely? NO, of course not. But possible? Certainly so.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are unlikely to tag anyone as their free agent outlook is rather minimal.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have the first overall pick and plenty of needs, but are unlikely to commit a lot of money to any of their free agents. They likely want to retain a number of them (Rex Hadnot, Yeremiah Bell) but none deserve the kind of financial commitment a tag would involve.

New England Patriots

WR Randy Moss

The Patriots acquired Randy Moss last offseason and, to Moss’ credit, he took a one-year deal to prove himself. Well, an 18-1 record and an NFL record 23 TD receptions later, the Pats are in a difficult bargaining position. It seems absurd to believe the Patriots would let Moss walk, or that he would want to leave a team that allowed him to return to HOF form and has a great chance of getting him a ring. BUT…he took a discount last season and is going to want to be paid (justifiably so). Look for the Patriots to tag Moss with the idea of signing him to a long-term deal before the start of the 2008 season.

Note: Some people have asked why I don’t have All Pro CB Asante Samuel listed as a 2nd option. Simply put, Samuel was tagged last year and he agreed to sign the tender under the condition the Patriots couldn’t tag him again this season. Either the Patriots give Samuel a long-term contract or he’s free to walk. 

New York Jets

The Jets don’t have anyone that likely warrants their tag designations. LB Victor Hobson, S Erik Coleman, and OT Adrian Jones are all probably in line to return but for nowhere near franchise or transition tag dollars.