Myth of “Vulturing” Goal-line Carries…a Denver Case Study
An interesting discussion is taking place in our Shark Pool regarding the role Andre Hall will play in the Denver backfield rotation. The conversation started when forum member Deuce’s Wild linked to a comment by KFFL that speculated Andre Hall might see “12 to 15 touches including goal line touches” despite Selvin Young being the nominal “starter.”
The conversation went in a lot of directions but the issue of one back “vulturing” the short yardage and goal line touches from the team’s primary back was brought up repeatedly.
While I don’t deny that Andre Hall has as much potential as any Denver back to make a fantasy impact, I cringe at how often fantasy owners throw out the idea of a goal line vulture. SO MANY fantasy owners justify the selection of a team’s backup or fullback with the idea that they could be finding a hidden source of cheap TD production.
Do goal line vultures exist? OF COURSE.
Are they common? NOT AT ALL. You can count on one hand the number of runners who get the preponderance of their team’s goal line carries but otherwise don’t play a major role in the offense.
And more to the point, there is little evidence to suggest Mike Shanahan is a fan of giving one back goal line carries at the expense of his primary rusher.
Here is a list of all the Denver RBs that had at least one goal line carry (i.e., opponent’s 5-yard line and in) between 2002-2007:
| First | Last | Year | GLCs | GLYds | GLTD | Rus | Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton | Portis | 2002 | 15 | 24 | 9 | 274 | 1509 | 15 |
| Mike | Anderson | 2002 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 83 | 385 | 2 |
| Olandis | Gary | 2002 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 147 | 1 |
| Reuben | Droughns | 2002 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Clinton | Portis | 2003 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 290 | 1593 | 14 |
| Quentin | Griffin | 2003 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 342 | 0 |
| Mike | Anderson | 2003 | 13 | 14 | 3 | 70 | 257 | 3 |
| Reuben | Droughns | 2003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Reuben | Droughns | 2004 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 275 | 1240 | 6 |
| Quentin | Griffin | 2004 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 84 | 311 | 2 |
| Tatum | Bell | 2004 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 75 | 396 | 3 |
| Garrison | Hearst | 2004 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 81 | 1 |
| Mike | Anderson | 2005 | 25 | 31 | 9 | 240 | 1014 | 12 |
| Tatum | Bell | 2005 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 172 | 919 | 8 |
| Ron | Dayne | 2005 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 270 | 1 |
| Cecil | Sapp | 2005 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Kyle | Johnson | 2005 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Tatum | Bell | 2006 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 1031 | 2 |
| Mike | Bell | 2006 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 157 | 677 | 8 |
| Cecil | Sapp | 2006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Kyle | Johnson | 2006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis | Henry | 2007 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 167 | 691 | 4 |
| Selvin | Young | 2007 | 7 | -4 | 0 | 140 | 727 | 1 |
| Andre | Hall | 2007 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 44 | 216 | 2 |
| Cecil | Sapp | 2007 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 59 | 2 |
- 2002 – Clinton Portis was the workhorse and got the majority of the goal line carries (15 of 23). Mike Anderson had about 1/3rd as many total carries and, not coincidentally, had 1/3 of the goal line carries that Portis did
- 2003 — This is the one year where it appears Shanahan wanted to use a goal line specialist. Anderson had 13 goal line carries despite having just 70 total rushing attempts, nearly the same number of GL carries that Clinton Portis had in a monst 1,593 yard season. The key to remember here is that Portis scored 14 TDs in 16 goal line rushes, while Anderson scored 2 TDs in 13 GL attempts.
- 2004 – The unexpected Reuben Droughns takes over the lead rushing duties and, what do you know, ends up with the majority (11 of 18) goal line carres.
- 2005 – Mike Anderson comes back into the mix and gets a whopping 25 goal line carries, among the most in the league over the last five years. Although he and Tatum Bell were in a committee, Anderson was the lead carrier and, not coincidentally, had the majority of GL carries (25 of 37).
- 2006 — An odd year, as Tatum Bell led the team with 233 carries but Mike Bell had 17 of the teams 23 GL carries. Bell wasn’t a specialist though, he had 157 rushes and it was a true committee situation.
- 2007 — The first thing that strikes me is Mike Shanahan and the Broncos didn’t have a capable short yardage option last year. But it’s hard to judge the results with such a small sample size. Travis Henry and Selvin Young had the majority of the team’s rushing attempts, and not coindicentally had 2/3rds of the team’s goal line attempts as a result.
The conclusion? Don’t simply buy into the notion of a backup RB being used to vulture goal line carries, even when its’ a team whose beat writers may be espousing that very issue. Mike Shanahan will try anything that works. But it’s pretty clear that Andre Hall is MUCH more likely to be the team’s main ball carrier, period, than he is to be someone who sees just a handful of touches each game but gets most of the Broncos TD opportunities. Shanny gives his main guy the chance to punch it in, more often than not.
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