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March 1, 2008

Breaking the Logjam - Randy Moss

NFL free agency is upon us, and big names are already packing their bags (or paying someone to do it) for new cities. Asante Samuel, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Donte Stallworth, and more are all ready to get their new jersey and playbook. Millions of dollars are flying everywhere as big names get signed almost hourly.

Two names are missing off of that list - Michael Turner and Randy Moss.

Let’s talk about Moss first. Sure, Berrian and Stallworth are now in Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively - but there are other WRs that are in the wind right now with their futures uncertain. Everyone is talking about what will happen with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and neither Fitz nor the Cards are happy. Fitzgerald doesn’t want to budge much off of his big payday, which he has earned, but the Cardinals are on the outside looking in with Faneca and others getting signed elsewhere. With a salary cap problem that makes Dan Snyder look like Scott Pioli, Arizona is left out in the cold while the hot stove NFL names ink deals.

So what’s this have to do with Randy Moss? Well, Fitzgerald wants his money but odds are that he also wants to be paid like the best WR in the NFL. Has anyone else considered that Moss’ next contract could set the bar for what any deal has to beat to get to that level? I’ve thought about it and it is starting to make sense. All these talks of trades for Lito Sheppard and a draft choice with the Eagles and other possible scenarios for Fitzgerald would all hinge on a new and cap-friendly contract with Larry’s John Hancock on the bottom. If Randy Moss signs a deal with either the Patriots or another franchise, it sets the high watermark for WR salaries.

The downside for Fitzgerald in this stalemate is two-fold: the Cards cannot wait forever, and there is also the risk that Moss could go the Philadelphia. Arizona does not want to cripple themselves with a massive cap number to keep Fitzgerald, yet the front office is still saying that they are willing to do just that. Odds are that if he won’t renegotiate, the Cardinals would be better served to move him off of their bloated books. The problem for both sides is that every signing like Berrian and Stallworth reduces the chances of a trade, reducing the number of teams that would go hard after Fitzgerald, and also that the longer this drags on the more it hurts Arizona’s chances for improvement by adding more talent.

Look for Randy Moss to make up his mind soon, and I would not be surprised at all to see both Fitz and the Cards celebrate Moss’ decision.

I’ll talk more about Michael Turner and the running backs next.

February 26, 2008

2008 NFL Free Agency Preview: Centers and Guards

Fantasy owners may not draft offensive lineman, but the behemoth guys up front can make all the difference when it comes to a productive offense. Offensive lineman worth don’t come cheaply, and teams are constantly searching for ways to upgrade their lines, regardless of how good the current unit may be.

Today, let’s look at the interior lineman; the centers and offensive guards.

The Top Centers on the Market

Centers are the quarterbacks of the line. They make the line calls and shift adjustments; all while making sure they don’t botch the snap to the signal caller.

  1. Jeff Faine (6′3″, 291 pounds, 26 years old) — Faine was supposed to be an anchor of the rebuilt Cleveland Browns line, but after the team acquired LeCharles Bentley in 2006 [at the time considered the league’s top center], he was jettisoned and ended up landing in New Orleans. Over the last two seasons, Faine has played at a high level and proven himself among the better young centers in the league. Expect some team to throw big dollars Faine’s way; possibly making him the highest paid center in the league.
  2. Jason Brown (6′3″, 320 pounds, 24 years old) — Brown is a restricted free agent, and it would be surprising if the Ravens let him go considering the other changes on their aging offensive line. Only 24 years old, Brown worked his way into the starting lineup in 2006 and became a fixture in 2007; at guard. Brown has the rare ability to play at a high level at both guard and center and could, therefore, be signed to an offer sheet by any number of teams.
  3. Rex Hadnot (6′2″, 325 pounds, 26 years old) — Hadnot became a starter as a rookie and has never looked back. Through the Dolphins ups and downs, Hadnot has been a durable fixture; starting 55 straight games. Despite his reliability, the new regime appears intent on letting Hadnot move on. Given his age and experience, Hadnot should have little trouble landing a 4- or 5-year deal as a potential starter.
  4. Jeremy Newberry (6′5″, 315 pounds, 31 years old) — Newberry spent a decade in San Francisco before jumping across the bay to Oakland last season. When healthy, Newberry can anchor a line with a mean streak but the intelligence to manage a complex offensive line set. However, at 31 years old, Newberry is no longer at his peak and is no stranger to serious injuries.

The Top Guards on the Market

Guards used to be the forgotten men of the line, but in recent years guards have started earning enormous contracts in free agency. This year looks to be no different, with Alan Faneca being the most coveted offensive lineman at any position.

  1. Alan Faneca (6′5″, 307 pounds, 31 years old) – Alan Faneca is the cream of the free agent OL crop. A punishing blocker with the athleticism to pull out as a lead blocker. Faneca has a mean streak and is extremely durable, starting 153 of the Steelers last 158 games. After a tenuous holdout last offseason, Faneca returned to the Steelers under the promise that he wouldn’t be franchised again in 2008. Now he gets to test the free agent market and looks to land one of the largest contracts for a lineman in league history.
  2. Justin Smiley (6′3″, 311 pounds, 26 years old) – Smiley missed the second half of last season with a shoulder injury but should be 100% healthy and ready to work out for interested teams. A starter for most of his career in San Francisco, Smiley is a solid if not spectacular guard; particularly as a pass blocker. Given the projected salary cap and the amount of money teams have available, don’t be surprised if Smiley lands a big, multi-year deal.
  3. Mike Wahle (6′6″, 304 pounds, 30 years old) – Wahle is a 10-year veteran that’s been starting since his second year in the league. An anchor for years in Green Bay, Wahle signed with Carolina three seasons ago and started 45 of 48 regular season games. But Carolina released Wahle because of salary cap concerns. Don’t let his release fool you, Wahle remains a quality starter and will garner a multi-year deal on a playoff contending team.
  4. Jacob Bell (6′4″, 295 pounds, 26 years old) — Bell is a four-year veteran and 2-year starter; playing an important role in the Titans rebuilt offensive line. Given his age and demeanor (he’s considered a high character guy), it would be surprising if the Titans let him get away. The Titans have a boatload of money under the cap, and Bell is the kind of young, productive player who should be a priority.
  5. Jake Scott (6′5″, 295 pounds, 26 years old) — Jake Scott has been a starter since his rookie season, for arguably the team’s most consistent offensive line in Indianapolis. So why isn’t he higher on this list? For two reasons. One, Scott is technically sound but can be overpowered. Two, the Colts have proven that their blocking scheme is greater than the sum of its parts. Either way, with Ryan Lilja re-signed it’s possible the Colts would let Scott walk. Don’t be surprised if he lands a big contract from another team.

The (Near) Complete List of Guards and Centers

Pos Player Name Status 2007 Team 2008 Team
C Rob Davis UFA GB
C Lennie Friedman UFA CLE
C Jonathan Goodwin UFA NO
C Nathan Hodel UFA ARZ
C Ryan Kuehl UFA NYG
C Nick Leckey UFA STL
C Andy McCollum UFA STL
C Jeremy Newberry UFA OAK
C Mike Pucillo UFA WAS
C Brett Romberg UFA STL
C Wade Smith UFA NYJ
C Alex Stepanovich UFA CIN
C Tyson Walter UFA GB
C Casey Wiegmann UFA KC
C Ethan Albright UFA WAS
C Jeff Faine Signed NO TB
C Tim Lindsey Signed ATL SEA
C Chukky Okobi Signed ARZ HOU
C Lonie Paxton Signed NE NE
C Chris White Signed PHI SEA
C Jon Condo RFA OAK
C Andrew Economos RFA TB
C Geoff Hangartner RFA CAR
C Scott Mruczkowski RFA SD
C Rudy Niswanger RFA KC
C Mike Flanagan Released HOU
C Mike Flynn Released BAL
OG Larry Allen UFA SF
OG Jacob Bell UFA TEN
OG Martin Bibla UFA DEN
OG Milford Brown UFA STL
OG Ruben Brown UFA CHI
OG Rick DeMulling UFA WAS
OG Jason Fabini UFA WAS
OG Alan Faneca UFA PIT  NYJ
OG Rex Hadnot UFA MIA
OG Matt Lehr UFA TB
OG Chris Liwienski UFA MIA
OG Seth McKinney UFA CLE
OG Gene Mruczkowski UFA MIA
OG Scott Peters UFA ARZ
OG Tutan Reyes UFA JAX
OG Jake Scott UFA IND
OG Barry Stokes UFA DET
OG Ross Tucker UFA WAS
OG Keydrick Vincent UFA ARZ  CAR
OG Fred Weary UFA HOU
OG Jason Whittle UFA BUF
OG Floyd Womack UFA SEA
OG Nick Jones Signed NYG SEA
OG Pat Murray Signed GB SEA
OG Ryan Lilja Signed IND IND
OG Jamar Nesbit Signed NO NO
OG Justin Smiley Signed SF MIA
OG Mike Wahle Signed CAR SEA
OG Joe Berger RFA DAL
OG Elton Brown RFA ARZ
OG Jason Brown RFA BAL
OG Dylan Gandy RFA IND
OG Chris Kemoeatu RFA PIT
OG Evan Mathis RFA CAR
OG Chris Myers RFA DEN
OG Ike Ndukwe RFA MIA
OG Adrien Clarke Released NYJ
OG Drew Hodgdon Released HOU
OG Shane Olivea Released SD

February 11, 2008

AFC North Potential Tag Players

Baltimore Ravens

LB Terrell Suggs

Suggs has five years in the league yet won’t turn 26 until October. Although his sack totals were down this year (just 5), he’s a proven play-maker who is many years younger than a typical marquee free agent. The Ravens can ill afford to let him leave after losing Adalius Thomas last offseason.

xxxxx

Cincinnati Bengals

DE Justin Smith

Last season the Bengals opted to tag DE Justin Smith despite questions about whether he was an elite defensive end. The logic was that he was a hard worker, and one of the few plus defenders on a defense that needed lots of improvement. Fast forward to this offseason and reports are again surfacing that Smith may get tagged; which, if true, begs the question: WHY? Smith notched only 2 sacks last year and has never had more than the 8.5 of his rookie season. The Bengals defense was awful last year and is more than one player away. In addition, the team has other major issues at play including: T.J. Houshmandzadeh wants a raise, Chad Johnson isn’t necessarily happy, and the team has other key free agents (Williams, Andrews, Johnson).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns resurgent 2007 brings with it challenges in free agency. RB Jamal Lewis gambled on a one-year deal last year and delivered a monster season which should bring him a market rate, multi-year deal. While Lewis is important to the Browns, his age and career workload likely precludes them from tagging him. The other major free agent is QB Derek Anderson; but Anderson is a restricted free agent so Cleveland has the right to match any offer. As a result, don’t look for the Browns to use either designation.

Pittsburgh Steelers

OG Alan Faneca is the best free agent guard on the market, and has been an important cog in the Steelers offensive machine for years. Yet, I’m not listing him as a potential tag candidate because the Steelers seem ready to let him leave via free agency.

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