The history of rookie wide receivers
Last week I offered some thoughts on rookie wide receivers in general and Calvin Johnson in particular. Consider this a just-the-facts companion to that post.
First, a list of rookie wide receivers who have finished among the top 30 for total fantasy points:
Year FFrank Rookie WR - team (stats) =================================================== 2006 14 Marques Colston - nor (70/1038/8) 2004 13 Michael Clayton - tam (80/1193/7) 2004 24 Lee Evans - buf (48/843/9) 2004 29 Roy Williams - det (54/817/8) 2004 30 Larry Fitzgerald - ari (58/780/8) 2003 4 Anquan Boldin - ari (101/1377/8) 2003 23 Andre Johnson - hou (66/976/4) 2001 30 Chris Chambers - mia (48/883/7) 1999 17 Kevin Johnson - cle (66/986/8) 1998 1 Randy Moss - min (69/1313/17) 1996 14 Terry Glenn - nwe (90/1132/6) 1996 17 Eddie Kennison - stl (54/924/9) 1996 21 Marvin Harrison - ind (64/836/8) 1996 22 Keyshawn Johnson - nyj (63/844/8) 1995 14 Joey Galloway - sea (67/1039/7) 1995 22 Chris Sanders - hou (35/823/9) 1994 21 Darnay Scott - cin (46/866/5) 1991 27 Lawrence Dawsey - tam (55/818/3) 1990 19 Fred Barnett - phi (36/721/8) 1990 24 Calvin Williams - phi (37/602/9) 1989 11 Eric Metcalf - cle (54/397/4) 1989 29 HartLee Dykes - nwe (49/795/5) 1988 24 Brian Blades - sea (40/682/8) 1988 26 Tim Brown - rai (43/725/5) 1986 9 Billy Brooks - ind (65/1131/8) 1986 13 Ernest Givins - hou (61/1062/3) 1986 29 Mike Sherrard - dal (41/744/5) 1985 7 Eddie Brown - cin (53/942/8) 1985 16 Anthony Carter - min (43/821/8) 1985 19 Gary Clark - was (72/926/5) 1985 22 Jerry Rice - sfo (49/927/3) 1984 10 Louis Lipps - pit (45/860/9) 1984 15 Daryl Turner - sea (35/715/10) 1984 19 Bobby Johnson - nyg (48/795/7) 1983 12 Willie Gault - chi (40/836/8) 1982 3 Charlie Brown - was (32/690/8) 1981 9 Cris Collinsworth - cin (67/1009/8) 1979 26 Jerry Butler - buf (48/834/4) 1978 1 John Jefferson - sdg (56/1001/13) 1978 12 James Lofton - gnb (46/818/6) 1978 27 Derrick Gaffney - nyj (38/691/3)
And here is a summary table, showing the number of rookies among each year’s fantasy Top 10, Top 20, and Top 30 wide receivers. Note that the top 10 finishers are included among the top 20 finishers, who are included among the top 30 finishers.
Year top10 top20 top30 =========================== 2006 0 1 1 2005 0 0 0 2004 0 1 4 2003 1 1 2 2002 0 0 0 2001 0 0 1 2000 0 0 0 1999 0 1 1 1998 1 1 1 1997 0 0 0 1996 0 2 4 1995 0 1 2 1994 0 0 1 1993 0 0 0 1992 0 0 0 1991 0 0 1 1990 0 1 2 1989 0 1 2 1988 0 0 2 1987 0 0 0 1986 1 2 3 1985 1 3 4 1984 1 3 3 1983 0 1 1 1982 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1 1980 0 0 0 1979 0 0 1 1978 1 2 3
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To me, this confirms that Calvin Johnson will be a top 20 WR. I’d consider 45/700/6 to be his floor.
Comment by awesomeshawn — July 24, 2007 @ 12:11 pm
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