Long, Gholston and Harvey: How many sacks to expect?
Three pass rushers were drafted in the top ten this year — Chris Long (St. Louis), Vernon Gholston (NYJ), and Derrick Harvey (Jacksonville). From 1996 to 2007, twenty-two outside linebackers or defensive ends were selected in the top ten of the draft. Over that span we’ve seen incredible performances by some pass rushers (Simeon Rice, Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers) and we’ve seen some big time busts (Cedric Jones, Jamal Reynolds, Jamal Anderson). But what happens on average?
Year Player Pos Team Pick Games Sacks 2007 Jamaal Anderson DE atl 8 16 0.0 2007 Gaines Adams DE tam 4 16 6.0 2006 Ernie Sims LB det 9 16 0.5 2006 A.J. Hawk LB gnb 5 16 3.5 2006 Mario Williams DE htx 1 16 4.5 2003 Terrell Suggs LB rav 10 16 12.0 2002 Julius Peppers DE car 2 12 12.0 2001 Justin Smith DE cin 4 15 8.5 2001 Jamal Reynolds DE gnb 10 6 2.0 2001 Richard Seymour DE nwe 6 13 3.0 2001 Andre Carter DE sfo 7 15 6.5 2000 LaVar Arrington LB was 2 16 4.0 2000 Courtney Brown DE cle 1 16 4.5 1999 Chris Claiborne LB det 9 15 1.5 1998 Andre Wadsworth DE crd 3 16 5.0 1998 Greg Ellis DE dal 8 16 3.0 1998 Grant Wistrom DE ram 6 13 3.0 1997 Peter Boulware LB rav 4 16 11.5 1997 James Farrior LB nyj 8 16 1.5 1996 Kevin Hardy LB jax 2 16 5.5 1996 Simeon Rice DE crd 3 16 12.5 1996 Cedric Jones DE nyg 5 16 0.0 15 5.0
Averaging out the projections of Footballguys.com IDP experts Aaron Rudnicki and John Norton, and Long is projected to have seven sacks, Gholston 4.5 sacks, and Harvey four sacks. That averages out to just a hair over 5 sacks per top ten rookie pass rusher, right in line with historical norms.
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