As if Peyton Manning’s bum knee weren’t enough to worry about, the ongoing disintegration of the Colts’ offensive line has become quite troubling all on its own. The latest bad news is that C Jeff Saturday (a perennial Pro-Bowler and clubhouse leader) is out for at least 6 weeks, possibly longer.

“The Indianapolis Colts likely will be without Jeff Saturday for at least the first six weeks of the season, and longer if the Pro Bowl center decides to have surgery to repair ligament damage to his right knee, his agent said Wednesday.

Saturday could not be reached for comment, and the Colts offered no update on his status. But Saturday’s agent, Ralph Cindrich, confirmed his client faces a long road back after tearing his medial collateral ligament in Sunday’s preseason loss to Buffalo.”

As Professor S points out in a current thread on the Footballguys.com NFL message board, the Shark Pool:

“The Colts offensive line is in relative shambles right now. Center Jeff Saturday has an undisclosed knee injury that will keep him out anywhere from two weeks to the entire year - the severity has not yet been determined. Starting left guard Ryan Lilja has not yet practiced after off season knee surgery. Last year’s starting right guard Jake Scott bolted for the Titans in free agency. Even the second round pick, center Mike Pollak, missed the last preseason game after a knee injury in practice.”

Check out the complete thread, linked above - there is a lively discussion of the ramifications of the Colts’ OL woes going on right now! 

Peyton Manning is coming back from knee surgery that will likely at least slow him down during the first weeks of the regular season - and now his pass protection will be less than optimal. The picture keeps getting worse for the defending AFC South champions, folks - the Titans, Jaguars and Texans (or the rest of the league) aren’t going to have any sympathy for Manning once the games start counting - expect them to come after him hot and heavy from the opening drive each game.
 

The week 4 preseason games are, by and large, only for reserves fighting for the last few available roster spots on the 32 teams. Most of the NFL teams will rest their starters in the games between now and the regular season opener. Tonight’s Monday Night Football game is the last preseason game with much import as far as fantasy football is concerned. So, what do we hope to learn about the Seahawks in the game tonight?

First of all - quality depth is critical in the NFL. A lot of the questions about the Seahawks are due to their having an unsettled depth chart at several positions. The Seahawks are going into the regular season with a rash of injuries impacting their veteran WR corps - can Nate Burleson lead the youngsters Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne and help them develop into respectable NFL starters? Will veteran Jeb Putzier or rookie John Carlson grab the brass ring and become the starting TE in Seattle? Will either be worth rostering in TE required leagues? Who will win the lions’ share of carries in the backfield - Maurice Morris or Julius Jones? We won’t know the final answers to these questions until the games start counting (although Burleson grabbed an early TD pass from Charlie Frye on the first Seattle drive and Burleson looked pretty good on that particular play), but we’ll be able to get an inkling of how well the team has progressed in the game tonight.

Regarding San Diego, it’ll be interesting to see how well the passing offense operates without Antonio Gates contributing (again) - of course, LaDainian Tomlinson won’t play in the preseason contest (he hardly ever does). Darren Sproles looks very strong early in the game - maybe the team has found a good replacement for Michael Turner, huh?

Enjoy the last game worth watching during the preseason, folks! Soon, the games start to count!

Good luck in all your fantasy drafts this week.

Fantasy football can be about more than players and fantasy points. This weekend, I will fly to Kansas City to participate in the 19th annual Heartland Football League fantasy football draft. Over the last 2 decades, a lot has happened among the group of friends who first set up the HFL, back in the days of very limited Internet connectivity (when only a few “geeks” even knew what the Internet was!) and hand-scoring leagues using the USA Today sports page (the only newspaper we could get at that time which had complete box scores for every game each week).

There have been a total of 268 regular-season fantasy match-ups per franchise (if your team has been in the league all 19 years), and over 100,000 fantasy points scored.  The league’s scoring system, set up to model NFL scoring and produce fantasy points that are within the realm of possibility in the real NFL for any given match-up, has averaged 32.459685 fantasy points scored per team (per week). But those numbers don’t tell the whole tale, not by a long shot.

5 of the original 12 owners have been active in the league all 18 years (the 6th to have played in all 18 years of the league is taking a break starting with the coming draft in K.C.). Another owner has been with us since the second season (254 games). Another original owner returns to the league this year after taking 1 year off  - all told, 7 of the original 12 owners (8 if you count the “newbie” with “only” 254 games played) are still involved in the league to one extent or another and remain friends with their old college buddies. 17 owners have been a part of the league at one point or another during the past 19 years.

Well in excess of a dozen births have been heralded; many marriages celebrated and many funerals seen; promotions boasted of; new homes purchased; old homes sold; new cars envied (our league commissioner’s wife had a Porsche Cayenne delivered for her husband as a surprise gift, timed to arrive during the league’s live draft a few years back!); cars wrecked; sicknesses fretted over and recoveries noted; businesses started and businesses closed - in short, the game of life being played out. For the league owners, fantasy football has been a touchstone to return to, and provided a forum for us all to get away from our everyday lives for a while, or to seek advice about our everyday lives when needed.   

It isn’t just about the league trophy (although for some of us, winning isn’t the only thing, it is everything - there is a fever pitch of competition that the HFL brings to the fore, without question) - it has become, simply, MORE.

So if you are new to the hobby of fantasy football, and are thinking about setting up a league with some of your buddies, I’d encourage you to do it! 20 years from now, you just might be glad you took the plunge.

I know I am.

Kevin Curtis, the Eagles unquestioned WR1 and a top-20 fantasy prospect, was diagnosed with a sports hernia (suffered last Thursday) and is undergoing surgery. Estimates put him out 4 to 6 weeks. I’m skeptical of that time frame. We’ve seen Donovan McNabb and L.J. Smith take longer than expected to recover from sports hernias, so color me skeptical that Curtis will be back on the field at full strength before Week 8 (October 26th) following the team’s bye week.

The loss of Curtis, in conjunction with Anquan Boldin asking for a trade, has sparked speculation that the Eagles should pursue the talented wideout. The Eagles have extra draft picks, and their own disgruntled player (Lito Sheppard) to dangle in a trade. Makes sense, BUT it’s still a long shot.

In listening to Philadelphia sports radio station 610 WIP this afternoon, dozens of callers were clamoring for the Eagles to bring in Joe Horn, recently released by the Atlanta Falcons.

As an Eagles fan, I’m disappointed by the Curtis news. I would LOVE for them to pursue Boldin, because he’s still in his prime, and is an elite addition. Boldin would be WR1 and Curtis would be WR2 upon his return. But Joe Horn? I think Eagles fans really need to look at what Horn has done over the last few years.

Those numbers, to say the least, pedestrian. Considering Horn turned 36 this year, he’s no more attractive (in fact, less so) than either Greg Lewis or Hank Baskett at this juncture. I’m not suggesting Eagles fans should be excited about having Baskett or Lewis play a large role in the offense, just understand that they’re no worse than Joe Horn, and come with a better understanding of this offense, are cheaper, and won’t demand the ball more than their skills warrant.

About a month ago, I alerted readers to the bad attitude that Anquan Boldin arrived to training camp projecting - he was slagging the organization whenever the opportunity presented itself.

 Well, as the team has not caved into Boldin’s contract demands (he wants to be paid as well as (or better than) Larry Fitzgerald - a $10-million a year contract), Boldin has gotten even more vocal about his anger with the front office. In fact, he has started calling for a trade to another team - just about any other team, it appears:

This past Monday and Tuesday, Boldin called team officials “liars” and blasted head coach Ken Whisenhunt for attempting to get involved in the contract situation:

Coaching and negotiating should be “completely separated,” Boldin said. “I think that’s why we have a department that deals with that.”

Regardless of who is in the right (Boldin and agent Drew Rosenhaus or the Cardinals’ management, take your pick), this ugly situation is impacting Boldin’s focus on football. In addition, he missed a significant chunk of training camp due to a hamstring injury (brought on in part due to lack of conditioning, which resulted from skipping OTAs during the opening stages of this contract dispute - see the vicious cycle developing?).

Now, the question for fantasy owners is this: how much do we think Boldin’s lack of focus and disgruntled attitude is going to degrade his performance on the field this year? At what point in the draft does he become worth the additional downside risk caused by the contract dispute?

The answer to the above questions may mean that you pass on Boldin during your upcoming drafts, or that you view him as a great bargain due to him dropping down draft boards in light of the ongoing argument.

You make the call. Happy Drafting! 

With fantasy draft season heating up, the staff at Footballguys.com is in overdrive covering all sorts of strategies for dominating your fantasy league. Over the past 10 days, a bevy of quality strategy articles on the QB position have been posted for our subscribers’ consideration - I thought it would be worth while to highlight these offerings and provide a quick capsule describing each article.

First of all, there is a faceoff between Jeff Pasquino and me, Mark Wimer, debating the merits of expending an early draft pick on a QB and also the merits of the alternative  - employing a quarterback by committee composed of mid- to late-round picks.

 Clayton Gray employed his strength of schedule expertise to craft two articles looking at the best combinations of 2 QBs and 3 QBs in a committee, projecting the point totals for every combination worth considering at this season.

Chase Stuart takes a close look at some specific combinations of QBs that he recommends for those looking to draft a committee in start-1 QB and start-2 QBs leagues.

For those who are looking for a high-upside, low-draft-cost alternative at the QB position, Jeff Tefertiller has penned a look at how to identify sleepers at the QB position.  

Happy Drafting! It’s my favorite time of the year, and I bet it is yours, too!

Three pass rushers were drafted in the top ten this year — Chris Long (St. Louis), Vernon Gholston (NYJ), and Derrick Harvey (Jacksonville). From 1996 to 2007, twenty-two outside linebackers or defensive ends were selected in the top ten of the draft. Over that span we’ve seen incredible performances by some pass rushers (Simeon Rice, Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers) and we’ve seen some big time busts (Cedric Jones, Jamal Reynolds, Jamal Anderson). But what happens on average?

Year	Player		Pos	Team	Pick	Games	 Sacks
2007	Jamaal Anderson	DE	atl	 8	16	 0.0
2007	Gaines Adams	DE	tam	 4	16	 6.0
2006	Ernie Sims	LB	det	 9	16	 0.5
2006	A.J. Hawk	LB	gnb	 5	16	 3.5
2006	Mario Williams	DE	htx	 1	16	 4.5
2003	Terrell Suggs	LB	rav	10	16	12.0
2002	Julius Peppers	DE	car	 2	12	12.0
2001	Justin Smith	DE	cin	 4	15	 8.5
2001	Jamal Reynolds	DE	gnb	10	 6	 2.0
2001	Richard Seymour	DE	nwe	 6	13	 3.0
2001	Andre Carter	DE	sfo	 7	15	 6.5
2000	LaVar Arrington	LB	was	 2	16	 4.0
2000	Courtney Brown	DE	cle	 1	16	 4.5
1999	Chris Claiborne	LB	det	 9	15	 1.5
1998	Andre Wadsworth	DE	crd	 3	16	 5.0
1998	Greg Ellis	DE	dal	 8	16	 3.0
1998	Grant Wistrom	DE	ram	 6	13	 3.0
1997	Peter Boulware	LB	rav	 4	16	11.5
1997	James Farrior	LB	nyj	 8	16	 1.5
1996	Kevin Hardy	LB	jax	 2	16	 5.5
1996	Simeon Rice	DE	crd	 3	16	12.5
1996	Cedric Jones	DE	nyg	 5	16	 0.0
						15	 5.0

Averaging out the projections of Footballguys.com IDP experts Aaron Rudnicki and John Norton, and Long is projected to have seven sacks, Gholston 4.5 sacks, and Harvey four sacks. That averages out to just a hair over 5 sacks per top ten rookie pass rusher, right in line with historical norms.

Some shocking news for on-again, off-again 49ers’ QB Alex Smith has affected the ongoing camp battle for the starting job on the team.

 ”It’s been an especially trying week for Smith. He disclosed that his closest friend, David Edwards, 24, committed suicide Sunday. Smith will miss today’s practice in order to attend a service for Edwards in the San Diego area. He’s scheduled to fly back to the Bay Area on Saturday in time for the game.

Edwards was a housemate at Smith’s home in Los Gatos for two years before moving back to San Diego last year. The two had been friends since they were 14, and Edwards often vacationed with the Smith family. The Friday service will be in the Smiths’ backyard in Bonita.

He was “really close with my family,” Smith said. “So it’s been difficult for everybody.” He said, “It will be good to go down and see his old friends and family.”

Smith found out about his friend’s death Sunday after practice. He admitted he’s had a hard time coping with the tragedy. He met with reporters Tuesday but didn’t mention it. On the practice field, the former starter has found himself playing second fiddle to O’Sullivan.”

Sincere condolences to Mr. Smith as he continues the grieving process over the loss of his close friend.

Clearly, this situation is a powerful distraction for Smith to fight through - it may help propel O’Sullivan into the #1 QB job and keep him there (at least to start the season).

The QB position in Chicago has been a horrid mess for many years, but the ridiculousness (ridiculousity? ridicule-deserving-idiocy?) seems to have reached new heights as of the 2008 training camp. After 23 days of training camp (with one to go), OC Ron Turner had this to say yesterday of his assessment about who leads the contest between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton:

”I really don’t,” offensive coordinator Ron Turner said when asked if he has a sense of who’s ahead.

Maybe Turner should have just said “I really don’t have a clue” and left it at that. How is it possible that the Bears’ offensive coaches could watch 3 weeks worth of practice sessions and still NOT make a determination who will lead the offense? If both players in question are so pathetic, why haven’t the Bears taken steps to bring in a third contender?

It really defies explanation, in my opinion. However, taking a look at the behavior of this organization over the last 20 years (using the Footballguys.com Data Dominator ) tells us that this current situation is really just par for the course up in Chicago. Guess how many times QBs have been swapped in and out of the Bears’ lineup over the past 20 years (1988-2007)? 30? 40? Nope.

During the past 20 years, the Bears have switched/substituted one QB for another 58 times. An average of ~3 different QBs under center each year for the past 20 years! And we’re not talking about a few snaps for the backup in mop-up duty here and there, folks. During the current decade, 24 switches at QB been made by the Bears, with only 3 QBs playing close to a full slate of games in any given year (Jim Miller played in 15 games back in 2001; Orton managed 15 back in 2005; and Grossman  appeared in a full slate of 16 games during the 2006 Super Bowl season). Of all the pass attempts thrown during this decade (4078), Grossman has tossed 900 in his time on the field during regular season (~22%); while Orton has lobbed 447 (~11%).

For comparison’s sake, during the same time span the Colts have sent in their backup QBs for snaps during 6 seasons, for a total of 186 pass attempts (out of 4436 passes attempted by Indianapolis, ~96% of them thrown by Peyton Manning).  

No wonder Muhsin Muhammad recently told SI’s Peter King “That’s right. It’s where receivers go to die.”

As a new article about the glacial pace of negotiations between Steven Jackson and the Rams points out today, Jackson’s tab for his 20-day holdout now stands at $303,320.00 and counting (20 x $15,166.00 per day). However, the cost of his holdout isn’t limited to his wallet. Two-a-days ended on Tuesday, and there will be only about 12 more practices between Thursday the 14th and the season opener at Philadelphia.

In other words, time is growing very short for Jackson to get into synch with his team mates. Another concern is related to “football shape” - the peak of conditioning that players acquire when they participate in a full training camp isn’t generated through individual workouts, according to many experienced voices from around the NFL. As former Rams’ coach Dick Vermeil puts it:

“Oh yeah, it’ll take him a few weeks. I don’t know what they’ll do. But I would bet they’ll temper his play early, and he won’t be a 30-carry guy on opening day — if he’s back by then…

“Carl Peterson did a study for the Kansas City Chiefs,” Vermeil said. “He’s one of the most experienced presidents-general managers in the National Football League. He’s been there since 1989, and he’s done studies as to holdouts. Not only in Kansas City, but all through the league. He says there’s a much higher correlation or a chance of getting injured after holding out, regardless of position.”

Current head coach Scott Linehan doesn’t agree with Vermeil on the possible consequences of Jackson’s holdout, stating:

“We had a lot of injuries last year and we had everybody in camp. A lot of that’s (bad) luck in a lot of ways. I think as long as (Jackson’s) training and we do a good job of training him, getting him ready. …To be honest with you, that really isn’t a concern.”

The current head coach’s opinion about Jackson’s ability to handle a full work load is the one that counts the most, obviously. He’s the guy who’ll decide how often to call Jackson’s number.

However, if Jackson isn’t around to take the field, Linehan’s opinions about “football shape” won’t matter. Fantasy owners everywhere are wondering how much longer the holdout will last - unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be a deal in sight as of Wednesday. We’ll see if the end of two-a-days thaws Jackson to the idea of coming into camp and getting his deal finalized…Stay tuned.

It’s hard to deny that Mike Martz’ NFL offenses have, by and large, been impressive statistically. Particularly the passing attacks. FBG staff member Jeff Tefertiller takes a look at the “Martz Effect” in a pair of articles [note: subscriber only]:

• The Martz Effect, Part I by Jeff Tefertiller
• The Martz Effect, Part II by Jeff Tefertiller

Those articles prompted a discussion in our forums, as member baconisgood questioned whether the 49ers situation is at all comparable to what Martz had to work with in St. Louis and Detroit.

To summarize his counterargument, he points out that the Rams had two Hall of Fame caliber WRs, an MVP running back (remember Faulk was already a proven commodity as a Colt), and a surprise QB who turned out to be among the league’s elite. A debate rages within the forum thread on how much credit Martz deserves for the careers of the Rams stars, and whether the 49ers situation is analogous to what Martz inherited in Detroit two seasons ago.

Where do I stand on this argument? Frankly, I have serious doubts about whether Martz can be successful this year. Not necessarily because he isn’t a talented offensive mind. I genuinely believe Martz can find a QB out of the trio that can run his system. And I believe the offensive skill players (Frank Gore, DeShaun Foster, Vernon Davis, Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Isaac Bruce) are talented enough collectively to run his system.  My doubts stem from Martz’ inability/unwillingness to protect his quarterback.

Here are the sacks allowed tallies for each of Mike Martz’ offenses (defined as a team he was either the OC or head coach for):

• 1999 (Rams OC) — 33 sacks
• 2000 (Rams HC) — 44 sacks
• 2001 (Rams HC) — 40 sacks
• 2002 (Rams HC) — 46 sacks
• 2003 (Rams HC) — 43 sacks
• 2004 (Rams HC) — 50 sacks
• 2005 (Rams HC) — 46 sacks
• 2006 (Lions OC) — 63 sacks
• 2007 (Lions OC) — 54 sacks

Now he’s inheriting an offense that allowed 55 sacks last year WITHOUT playing the spread Martz attack.

I just can’t see how the 49ers keep their QBs from absolutely being demolished all season long. I hope I’m wrong, because that will create some compelling fantasy value options among Rams receivers. But somehow I suspect this is going to be a season when Mike Martz’ star fades even further.

Evidently, practicing against Brett Favre is stretching the Jets’ defensive backs (and wide receivers) in many new ways.

“Naturally, it’s a whole new world for the wide receivers, but it also has created an added strain for the defensive backs - and that’s a good thing in training camp. It should help them in the early part of the season, when they face strong-armed passers Tom Brady and Carson Palmer.

“He has the innate ability to look one way and still know how to go the other way and get the ball there in time,” safety Kerry Rhodes said of Favre. “A lot of quarterbacks can’t go from this side to that side, and still fit the ball in. He’s one of the guys that can. He keeps you honest. You can’t really cheat.”…

“It comes real, real, real fast,” Rhodes said. “It seems like 100 mph.”

Said wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery: “Every route on the field is available.”

Given the modest expectations that almost everyone has for the Jets’ defense (they are currently 21st on the FBG’s consensus rankings of defense/special teams), the elevated level of practices with Favre in the fold could lead the Jets to outperform their modest expectations/draft slot - the Jets are being selected after 20 (minimum) other D/ST are off the board. If you are approaching the draft with a plan of rotating a slate of defenses during 2008, the Jets could be a team worth considering as part of a 3-team platoon at the position.

An excellent take on the idea of utilizing a defensive team by committee is offered by Footballguys’ own Chase Stuart, whose perennial subscribers’-favorite article ”Defensive Team by Committee” was released today, August 12th. I commend it to your attention before heading into your fantasy draft this season.  

One of the most interesting offensive stats, in my view, is YAC (Yards after the Catch). Simply put, YAC is a measure of the yards a receiver generates AFTER the ball is in their hand. Here are a few quick examples to help illustrate the point:

• Player A catches a swing pass at the line of scrimmage, and runs for 8 yards — The player would have an 8-yard reception and YAC of 8, as well
• Player B catches an inside slant for 12 yards, but gets past the defensive back and rumbles for another 15 — The player would be credited with a 27-yard reception, and 15 yards after contact (YAC)

Pretty straightforward right? YAC is ultimately a measure of what a player can do with the ball in their hands. For that reason, it shouldn’t surprise you that some of the league’s top YAC producers aren’t wide receivers, but rather running backs.

Here is a quick look at last year’s YAC leaders:

While that’s an interesting measure, it doesn’t really speak to which players are the most effective with the ball in their hands. To measure that, you need to normalize the data by looking at YAC per Reception. If Player A generates 300 YAC in 30 receptions, that’s a much more explosive open field display than someone who has 500 YAC in 100 receptions.

Without further ado, here are the top 50 players, sorted by YAC per reception (2007)

The top 13 YAC producers (per catch) are RBs, and 16 of the top 20 spots are held by runners. I’ve bolded all the non-RB contributors to this list. Some interesting food for thought. In a day or two, we’ll take a look at whether YAC or YACperReception are helpful predictors of future fantasy performance.

5 Preseason games went into the history books last night, with various NFL hopefuls strutting their stuff in an attempt to earn playing time during regular season.

Some of these players posted impressive numbers - for example, last year’s disappointment in New Orleans, Robert Meachem, helped the Saints best the Cardinals 24-10. Meachem grabbed 4/129/1 during the game, including a 60-yard scoring strike from Tyler Palko at 10:36 in the 4th quarter. The former 1st round draft pick showed us why the Saints invested a high selection in him during the 2007 draft.

However, it is important to remember why Meachem is racking up such big numbers in the first preseason game. Marques Colston and Devery Henderson were both sidelined for this contest due to injury, and #2 WR David Patten only saw the field for a handful of plays before sitting out the rest of the contest. Drew Brees tossed a mere 6/7 for 40 yards and a TD before grabbing a seat on the bench.

The rest of the game (during which Meachem posted the lion’s share of his impressive statistics) was all about evaluating 2nd, 3rd and 4th-string players to determine who advances deeper into preseason training camp and who gets cut in the first round of roster trimming.

Meachem blew up for big numbers - he should  rack up big numbers given he has a first-round draft selection’s talent - playing against defenders who have a marginal shot at sticking with the Cardinals. While it was a good showing by Meachem (who is expected by many observers to be the #3 WR for the Saints when the season opens), don’t get over-excited and leapfrog him up your draft board - at least, not yet.

Playing well in a preseason week 1 game won’t hurt any given player’s 2008 outlook, but it is very far from a “preview” of what any particular guy is likely to do once the games count. About the only thing we can say for Meachem (or any of the other standouts from yesterday’s contests) as of today is “So far, so good“. That isn’t nothing, but it doesn’t mean a whole lot just yet, either.   

When a player has as many years and starts under his belt as Brett Favre does, it’s safe to say he’s amassed enough statistical output at almost every stadium to get a sense for how he would perform if that was his new home turf. Giants and Jets fans know full well that playing home games at Giants Stadium isn’t necessarily the easiest thing for a quarterback. It’s not just that it’s windy, but that the wind is unpredictable and prone to changes in direction.

Andy Herron sparked a discussion in our Shark Pool about whether we should be concerned about the home field conditions as we try to project Favre’s fantasy output this year.

So how has Favre performed as a visitor to Giants Stadium?

While I wouldn’t read too much into these numbers, they should put to rest any undue criticism that Favre will somehow struggle because of the conditions at Giants Stadium. He may need time to adjust to a new offense, new surroundings, new teammates. But he won’t have trouble adjusting to the conditions.

Just for fun, here is what a 16-game season would look like if we took Favre’s career averages at Giants stadium and projected them over a year’s worth of games:

• 346 completions
• 570 attempts
• 60.7% rate
• 4,221 yards
• 7.4 yards per attempt
• 26 TD passes
• 16 INTs

Again, don’t take this as any kind of predictive measure of how his 2008 season will turn out. But do recognize that he’ll be able to put up numbers in his new home digs, provided he adjusts to the new offense.

With the news that Brett Favre has been traded to the New York Jets, the Footballguys.com message board is lit up like a Christmas tree with lots of speculation on the outcome of the move. One thread on the Footballguys.com message board is polling opinions asking how much improvement will the Jets show with Favre on the team?

Posters are speculating on Favre’s year-end ranking among all fantasy QBs in another thread, and in another analysis is ongoing about how Favre’s presence impacts the New York Jets’ defensive performance. Other discussions are ongoing about the impact of Favre’s presence on RB Thomas Jones’ performance/ranking.

 Also, as the news about Favre’s move has percolated through the Footballguys.com QB rankings, many QB ranking boards have been revised as of today to reflect Favre’s presence in New York. Check out the constantly-updated expert rankings HERE!

 The NFL preseason is rushing along like Adrian Peterson with a head of steam up, and now is the time to get in the discussion! Check out all the NFL talk and Favre chatter in the Footballguys.com fantasy football message board community, The Shark Pool!

OK, things aren’t REALLY that bad for Chad Pennington. But he has to be feeling pretty badly this morning after the late night trade that brought Brett Favre to the Jets. To make the deal work financially, it’s expected that the Jets will release Pennington (as well as make a few other roster moves) ending what was a fairly successful career before injuries set in.

“It’s a bittersweet moment for us,” Tannenbaum said. “I have all the respect in the world for Chad as a person, as a player. We’ve accomplished a lot of good things with Chad. … He gave his heart and soul to this organization for a long, long time. I really appreciate everything he’s done.”

The issue is whether or not another team still thinks Pennington can start in this league and win games.

The 32-year old Pennington is coming off a season where he started 8 games and finished with 1,765 yards, 10 TDs and 9 INTs. He was competing against Kellen Clemens in Jets camp and, although neither appeared to be setting the world afire, Pennington was considered the clear leader to claim the starting job.

Pennington is still a highly accurate passer and is smart enough to adjust to a new offensive playbook in a relatively short period of time. By all accounts, he’s also a hard worker and a consummate professional. Those things should go a long way in giving him another shot at playing time. Working against him, however, are a clear lack of arm strength, a troubling injury history (including two stints missing time with his shoulder) and a lot of hits (132 sacks, including nearly 10% of his dropbacks last year).

So who might Pennington land with?  He will have two viable options. One, go to a team where he could clearly compete for playing time. Two, go to a contender as a proven backup with an understanding he won’t see the field unless the starter gets hurt.

• Minnesota Vikings — Now we’ll REALLY see what the Vikings think of Tarvaris Jackson. It’s one thing to be willing to push him aside for a Hall of Famer who already knows the offense and its coaches. It’s another thing entirely to displace the strong armed youngster for a 32-year old game manager.
• Kansas City Chiefs – Herm Edwards used to coach Pennington and still doesn’t have a starting QB that gives anyone confidence in Kansas City. Unfortunately, the Chiefs offensive line looks troubling and Pennington may not want to consider playing for a team where he’ll take a pounding and probably can’t get into the playoffs.
• Miami Dolphins — Yes, the Dolphins have three QBs competing for the job including two youngsters. But this is a team that brought in QUINCY CARTER last week for a workout. Chad Pennington would be a much better stop-gap option than Josh McCown, until either Beck or Henne were ready for the job. The Dolphins have the added bonus of playing in the Jets division, which would serve as motivation for both Parcells (intel) and Pennington (revenge).
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The Bucs have never met a QB they didn’t like, and are currently planning on starting a 38-year old with an average arm. Why not make that a 32-year old?
• Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys have been in the market for a new backup, eying Chris Simms allegedly. Pennington would be a good fit, as he’s a Southerner who wouldn’t rock the boat behind Tony Romo but would be a significant upgrade over Brad Johnson is called upon.
• Carolina Panthers — Jake Delhomme is coming off Tommy John surgery and there isn’t much precedent there. His backups are woefully inexperienced and lack the pedigree to suggest the Panthers can win with them under center. Pennington wouldn’t get to compete against Delhomme, but he would have a reasonable shot at playing time due to injury.

So who do you think Pennington will play for? And do you see him starting or transitioning to a purely backup role in 2008?

In addition to being a fantasy football nut, I’m also a proud season ticket holder for the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s both a blessing (4 straight NFC championship games) and a curse (zero Super Bowls) but no matter how the team does, like a good fan I’m pretty obsessive about following the team’s every move.

This week, the team released its first official depth chart of the season. With a month until the regular season, you might be asking why a depth chart matters? Well, it may not matter to you or I but it absolutely matters to the players trying to make the 53-man roster as well as earn significant playing time. You can learn a lot from early preseason depth charts, as coaches use them to motivate slow camp starters and also sometimes use them to massage fragile egos. The Eagles 1st depth chart has a little bit of both in evidence.

Quarterback

• QB1 — Donovan McNabb
• QB2 — Kevin Kolb
• QB3 — A.J. Feeley 

No surprises here. McNabb has looked solid and is entrenched. Kolb was promoted to 2nd string before camp began, and Feeley seems to have settled into his new role as the emergency signal caller.

Running Back

• RB1 — Brian Westbrook
• RB2 — Correll Buckhalter
• RB3 — Lorenzo Booker
• RB4 — Tony Hunt
• RB5 — Ryan Moats 

What’s notable here is Buckhalter being listed as RB2 over Booker, despite it being obvious to anyone watching camp that Booker is going to play a major role offensively. Consider this as much a recognition of Buckhalter’s veteran status and leadership as an indication of which backup will get more touches. Hunt and Moats should be worried, it’s unlikely the team will carry more than four tailbacks on the active roster, and may opt for just the top three.

Wide Receiver

• WR1s — Kevin Curtis & Reggie Brown
• WR2s — Hank Baskett & Jason Avant
• WR3s — Michael Gasperson & Greg Lewis
• WR4s — DeSean Jackson & Jamal Jones
• WR5s — Shaheer McBride, Bam Childress & Frantz Hardy

Now this is an interesting depth chart. Lots of mixed reviews about Reggie Brown thus far, with some writers going so far as to wonder if Brown’s job is safe. The only sure thing on this depth chart is Kevin Curtis as the top option. Beyond that, expect this chart to be fluid throughout camp and into the season. The other glaring issue is rookie DeSean Jackson listed as a 4th stringer. NO ONE, Jackson included, believes that to be a realistic assessment of his role. But look at this as Andy Reid’s reminder to Jackson that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. After a slow start to camp, Jackson has looked much better in the last few days and has even seen 1st team reps. Expect Jackson to be listed as a WR2 at worst when the next depth chart comes out.

Tight End

• TE1 — L.J. Smith
• TE2 — Brent Celek
• TE3 — Matt Schobel
• TE4 — Kris Wilson

Smith is the team’s franchise player this season, no surprise to see him atop the chart. But Kris Wilson’s place as the 4th stringer does bear close scrutiny. Signed as a free agent, many expected Wilson to compete for major playing time because of his versatility. While he still has time, I take this to be an indication that Reid and his assistant coaches need to see more out of Wilson if he’s going to crack into the rotation.

(more…)

Keith Rivers, the rookie LB who was holding out of Bengals’ training camp, signed with the team on Tuesday night and is now in training camp. Rivers was originally expected to start on the weak side for the Bengals after his selection in the draft. However, as often happens in holdout scenarios, another player has staked a claim on the WLB job while Rivers sat out.

“Rivers had been the projected starter at weak-side linebacker, along with middle linebacker Dhani Jones and Rashad Jeanty on the strong side. But free agent Brandon Johnson, signed in the off-season from Arizona, has been playing well in Rivers’ absence and made a strong showing over the weekend.”

After missing 10 days of camp and 12 full practices, Rivers is behind the curve and he probably won’t participate in the preseason opener this coming Monday night (vs. Green Bay). We’ll see how Brandon Johnson looks on national TV - but it does look like Rivers has an uphill battle to earn playing time, at least early on during the coming season. Stay tuned…

ESPN.com’s Matt Mosley reported on Monday that Steve Smith could be on his way out of Carolina, stating:

“There have been rumblings out of Panthers camp that club officials are fed up with Smith’s actions (not just the latest incident) and are at least considering the idea of dealing him to another team.

The idea of trading one of the best receivers in football seems far-fetched, but Smith has become a divisive force on the team. One Panthers source said that several defensive backs were walking around after the recent incident saying that if management didn’t discipline Smith, they would. This isn’t exactly the best way to begin a season.

All that to say that I know an owner in the NFC East who has spent the last four months coveting another star wide receiver. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones struckout with Chad Johnson, the Lions’ Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin, but behind closed doors, he’s still pining away for someone to play opposite Terrell Owens.”

  It would take a blockbuster deal to move Smith, obviously, but if this were to happen the fantasy implications are profound.

• Muhsin Muhammad would immediately skyrocket up draft boards, as would D.J. Hackett
• Smith would return to the elite ranks of WRs as a top fantasy prospect (would the Cowboys be bound to enforce Carolina’s 2 game suspension? Probably not…)
• Patrick Crayton’s fantasy value would drop off the map if the ‘Boys went with a starting tandem of Owens/Smith

At this point, the scenario described by Mosley remains a distant possibility - but if you are drafting in the next few days, bump Muhsin Muhammad up a tad on your draft list just on the off-hand chance he could be Carolina’s #1 wide receiver this year - he was pretty good the last time Jake Delhomme had to lean on Muhammad (93/1405/16 - #1 fantasy WR during 2004). While it would be wildly optimistic to expect a #1 fantasy season from Muhammad during 2008, a top 10 appearance wouldn’t be outside possibility if Smith were to leave town.