Shockey to Saints: Be careful what you wish for Giants fans…
Jeremy Shockey has been traded to the New Orleans Saints, ending months of speculation. About six weeks ago I wrote an analysis on Eli Manning in our Player Spotlight feature. At the time, the Jeremy Shockey situation was in flux and I warned Giants fans to be careful what they wish for:
The Jeremy Shockey Factor. Rumors persist that Jeremy Shockey is going to be traded to the New Orleans Saints. Is it possible that trading away a 4-time Pro Bowler can be a positive development? The argument for moving Shockey is that New York won a Super Bowl without him and, in his absence, Eli Manning was more productive. The drama that surrounds Shockey is distracting and divisive; and GM Jerry Reese and HC Tom Coughlin have the goodwill to shed themselves of the headache. The argument against trading Shockey is that he’s not easily replaced. In spite of his personality quirks, Shockey has been a MAJOR portion of Eli Manning’s success. Over the last three seasons, Shockey has accounted for:
- 20.2% of the team’s receptions (188)
- 20.6% of the team’s receiving yards (2,133)
- 23.9% of the team’s receiving TDs (17)
No disrespect to Kevin Boss, but he’s not going to replicate that kind of productivity. The Giants are going to have to reshape their offense if the Shockey trade happens; and that’s unlikely to lead to better passing numbers over a full 16-game season.
Apologies to my colleague Mark Wimer, but he isn’t seeing the forest for the trees here. We, as football fans, tend to put way too much credence on a small subset of playoff games and not enough weight on a player’s entire body of work. Eli Manning has been VERY CONSISTENT over his three full seasons under center, so much so that his playoff run last year very likely equals the anomaly not the new rule.
I would ask anyone to show me a QB that loses 20% of their passing productivity and IMPROVES the following year. Manning was already no better than a fringe fantasy starter and now, even if you assume other players pick up most of the slack, it’s hard to see Manning represent value at his current ADP.
Here’s a quick rundown of the fantasy implications from this trade:
- QB Drew Brees – Brees was already one of the “elite 4″ at his position, along with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo. With the addition of Shockey, it makes Brees a safer bet because he could survive the loss of someone like Colston for a few weeks. Brees now becomes someone you can justify taking in the 2nd or 3rd round.
- QB Eli Manning — Manning just lost 20% of his yards and 24% of his TD passes. Even if you think Manning would’ve shown natural improvement this year, this trade almost assuredly offsets any natural gains. At his current ADP, it’s hard to get excited about Manning as a fantasy prospect, but there will be a number of owners in your league who disagree.
- TE Jeremy Shockey – Sean Payton used to coach Shockey and knows his talents. With an elite QB in Drew Brees, and a new lease on life, expect a bounce back season. Shockey need only stay healthy (meaning 14 or more games) to deliver another quality season. He’s an every week fantasy starter, but don’t go crazy and expect his numbers to skyrocket. The Saints have lots of other weapons, so Shockey will have to make due with some tough weeks while other players shine.
- TE Eric Johnson — Mark got this one right, Johnson goes from an intriguing fantasy backup and late round pick to someone that needs to stay on your waiver wire. He could conceivably be released and sign on with another team, but until that happens, he’s not worth paying attention to.
- TE Kevin Boss — Boss gets a chance to start and that could me a lot of targets. But understand that Boss isn’t the athlete or play-maker that Shockey is. As long as you set reasonable expectations, Boss now becomes worthy of a roster spot but purely as a long-shot backup and bye week fill in.
- WR Marques Colston — Colston makes his $$$ in the red zone, and Shockey does, too. Shockey’s addition makes Colston’s TD upside slightly less compelling, but ultimately not enough to dissuade us from drafting him at current ADP.
- WR Plaxico Burress – Burress was already a favorite target and that won’t change. If anything, this puts more pressure on Plax to deliver game in, game out. On the margin, Burress was already a top-12 fantasy prospect and remains so.
The good news is the Giants won a Super Bowl without Shockey and have probably been planning to go this year without him from the start. The team is going to have to alter its offensive philosophy a bit, and be open to using more 3-WR and 4-WR sets; in which case the team’s total productivity could look relatively similar. The Saints are already putting up such big passing numbers that it’s hard to imagine a substantive increase. Shockey likely takes away production from the Saints WR corps and, possibly, RB Reggie Bush.
Be sure to check out Footballguys.com for our updated rankings and projections. We should have the Shockey impact modeled when the next set of projections are released later in the week.
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Well done. I would add another major fantasy implication to the list - Reggie Bush. You mentioned a potential drop off in his receiving stats. I don’t see it that way. I think the trade benefits him in two ways. First of all, Shockey is a devastating run blocker - if the Saints can convince him to fill that role. Bush has always shown the tendency to want to get to the corner and now he has a guy who will keep defenders from flying around the edge. In addition, Shockey’s presence near the goal line could mean that defenses can’t key in on Reggie.
I also felt, prior to the Shockey trade, that the Saints improvements on defense could help Bush put up more consistent rushing totals.
Bush is currently projected for about 1200 total yards and 8 total tds. He bested that during his rookie campaign and would have last year if it weren’t for injury. His ADP is 31, RB17. The hype machine has completely disappeared, and now the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Its a great time to buy low on Reggie Bush.
Comment by gonzobill5 — July 22, 2008 @ 9:27 pm