JaMarcus Russell has been sidelined by an elbow injury to his throwing arm inflicted when he banged his arm into Darren McFadden’s helmet in Tuesday drills.

 Coach Lane Kiffin said the trainers took him out of Wednesday practices as a precaution.

“We’ll look at it again in the morning,” said Kiffin, while noting that Russell did have X-rays on the injury - no serious problems were uncovered. “And really with that, it’s not something that is about looking at him in the training room. It’s about getting him out here… So (today) it’ll be the same thing as it was (Wednesday). We’ll bring him out here, warm him up. He’ll go through routes and see how far he can keep going.”

 While Russell sits out, Andrew Walter has been taking a lot of snaps and looking fairly competent. As coach Kiffin puts it “He’s throwing really well,” Kiffin said. “If you can protect him, he can be a really good quarterback in this league … because he can throw the ball extremely well.”

For his part, Walter is surprised to still be on the team: “I thought I was going to be traded. To my knowledge there were at least two (deals) that were close to being done. I had two bags packed in my room. All I had to do was zip them up and I was out the door. ” However, Walter does acknowledge that “It’s a new year and a new day.”

 Hopefully, Russell will be able to put the ding behind him quickly as there are a lot of new faces on the offense and he is still wet behind the ears when it comes to running the Raiders’ offense. Time will tell if Russell will justify the 1st pick the team invested in him last year…

The Indianapolis defensive line suffered some unexpected attrition at the opening of training camp as 2nd-year player Quinn Pitcock’s agent announced his retirement from the NFL.

 ”“After much deliberation and careful thought, Quinn resolved to retire from the NFL,’’ Brad Leshnock, Pitcock’s agent, said in an email to The Indianapolis Star late Tuesday. “He notified the Colts of this decision last week.”

Pitcock, who was slowed by a groin injury to start the 2007 season but eventually appeared in 9 games (and started 1), was expected to be part of the team’s rotation along the DL this year, although he wasn’t penciled in as a starter (he was the #1 backup at DT). While not immediately relevant to IDP leagues, Pitcock’s absence means the defense will begin training camp stripped of last year’s 3rd-round draft pick. Depth is an important part of the formula for success in the NFL - we’ll see who the team replaces Pitcock with before we can assess how his absence will impact their utility as a defense/special teams in fantasy terms.

 Stay tuned as the team juggles their lineup in the trenches.

According to the Jets, coach Eric Mangini did not meet with Brett Favre during the unannounced “day off” on Monday. While the team remains mildly interested in acquiring Favre, a deal isn’t imminent and appears increasingly unlikely.

 Coach Mangini is incorporating the days off due to his acceptance of recent research about the importance of rest/recovery in the physical training process.

Other rumors swirling around the Favre situation indicates that a deal was almost consummated between the Buccaneers and the Packers over the weekend, but that talks collapsed over a demand for a conditional 1st round pick that the Packers were seeking.

It looks like we won’t know where Favre is heading in the immediate future…stay tuned.

Let’s face it, the Packers are enduring a miserable launch to their 2008 season.

First, the team/fans have to endure the on-again, off-again, on-again Brett Favre saga (currently, the team has compromised with Favre to try and facilitate a trade elsewhere if he’ll stay away from training camp). Nobody on the squad is benefitting from the ongoing distraction(s) created by this situation.

Also ongoing is the acrimony between last year’s surprise star RB, Ryan Grant, and the team. Grant and his agent Alan Herman termed the team’s contract offer “insulting”, with Herman elaborating “I can’t believe after 5 1/2 months, after the Packers said to us that this was a unique situation, that the Packers take care of their own, that we would get in a situation as unreasonable as this. I’ve never seen anything like that in my 24 years in the business.” Describing Grant’s reaction to the offer (a $1.75 million signing bonus on a 6-year extension, other details unspecified) “He was as mad as I’ve ever heard him. He’s really angry.” The Packers retain Grant’s rights as they made him the minimum tender offer of $370,000. However, he isn’t under contract and can’t be fined for missing training camp - a set of circumstances that may lead to a stand-off type of impasse.

Green Bay opens camp today, with media attention on the Favre drama at a frenzy. Ted Thompson hopes that the team can find its focus, stating on Sunday “It’ll be a little hectic probably tomorrow…But football is football and football players are football players. We have a lot of faith in these guys. I think Mike (McCarthy) handles the team very well.”

Color me skeptical on this front - there have to be many on this team who believe (as many others outside Green Bay do) that the Pack has the best chance to win a championship with Favre under center (and with Grant in the RB stable). How hard will it be for the coaching staff to convince this team that they are gunning for the playoffs when the front office’s attitude and moves seem to indicate otherwise?

From a fantasy football perspective, if the team struggles to find focus, a flat start to 2008 could lead to a general depression of the offense. Team chemistry is an elusive quality, and right now the chaos surrounding the Packers’ training camp will have an adverse effect on team morale.

One thing is for certain - I wouldn’t want to be in Mike McCarthy’s shoes right now…

Anquan Boldin claims to have decided he wants out of Arizona and was apparently letting anyone and everyone know about his anger during the opening of camp yesterday.

“I was promised a deal would get done before this season. But the season is here and obviously it hasn’t happened,” Boldin said. “Right now … I don’t want a deal. People may think I’m being funny or just saying that just to say it. But for me, I’m just tired of it. I’ve washed my hands of the whole situation.”

When asked if there was a chance of repairing the relationship with Arizona’s front office, Boldin responded “No.” After all, Boldin has 3 years left on his current $22.75 million contract extension (dating from the stone ages of July 2005) and is scheduled to make a paltry $4 million a year (he received a $13.255 million signing bonus way back 2 whole years ago).

For fantasy owners, the question now becomes “Will Boldin play at the top of his abilities or will his sulking and pouting adversely affect his season?” Simply being physically present at practices and on game day isn’t the same as being fully committed to bringing your “A” game to the field - fighting through the nicks and dings every player incurs during a season while keeping at the top of one’s game requires focus and determination.

Frankly, Boldin sounds more worried about being “under paid” than he is about playing football. And that may be a big problem on Sundays this year. We’ll see how the situation shakes out, but the Cardinals’ camp isn’t off to a promising start on the offensive side of the ball, folks.

A new perspective on the Jeremy Shockey trade was published in the New York Post (article by Paul Schwartz) on Thursday, suggesting that Shockey was suffering from some sort of mental breakdown prior to his exit from the team.

What became painfully evident to the team is that Shockey - always high-maintenance - had gone off the deep end, imagining conspiracies and persecution that never existed. Despite his incessant grumblings, all concerned believed the relationship could and would be repaired. Then Shockey, coming off leg and ankle surgery, showed up at the mid-June veteran mini-camp and his bizarre actions and ranting convinced the organization that he had to go.

Teammates who once enjoyed - or at least tolerated - Shockey’s edgy persona because they respected his work ethic and talent came to realize he was losing touch with reality. He accused players of leaking private information about him to the media, he got into a verbal confrontation with GM Jerry Reese and showed little regard for the urgings of Coughlin to at least make an appearance on the practice field along with the other injured players.

While it is possible that the team is simply trying to defend their decision to trade Shockey by smearing him in the press, the altercation with GM Jerry Reese was widely reported at the time of the confrontation, and it is a fact that Shockey refused to attend practices while physically present at the Giants facility.

We’ll see how Shockey behaves/integrates with his new team mates in New Orleans, but keep the above tidbit in mind while you work on your draft list at TE. Some of the behavior described in the article sounds quite ominous regarding Shockey’s mental health. As we saw with Ricky Williams during his years in New Orleans, mental problems can adversely affect a player’s ability to function within the high-pressure environment that is the NFL.

If he is losing his grip on reality, Shockey would definitely be a riskier pick at TE than other, more stable individuals - time will tell if he is really “going off the deep end” or if Shockey was simply working to speed his exit from New York. In fantasy circles, it is better to be forewarned rather than ignorant - forewarned is forearmed. Consider yourself warned…

The NFL is amping up training camps and that means fantasy football is right around the corner. The Chicago Bears were one of the first teams to open camp this year and, as you probably know, they are embarking on a good, old-fashioned QB duel this summer between Rex Grossman (who re-signed a one year deal) and Kyle Orton (2-year deal).

While competition is a good thing, particularly for a team that’s struggled to find a consistent signal caller, I couldn’t help but cringe at the following news blurb in the Chicago Tribune (by Vaughn McClure):

Also, Rex Grossman has won the starting quarterback job — for the first day of practice. There was a coin toss at a Wednesday morning quarterback meeting. Kyle Orton called it, but Grossman won it and will run with the first-team offense Wednesday.

A coin toss? Really?

I understand it’s symbolic and no more important than determining who gets “first dibs” on Day One (I’m presuming Orton will start today’s practices off and they’ll alternate from there), but still I think Lovie Smith has to be careful about what kind of symbolism he’s perpetuating.

How many NFL pundits not to mention Bears fans already feel like neither Grossman nor Orton are the answer?

Antonio Gates’ surgically repaired big toe (the operation to repair his torn plantar plate was performed in late February) hasn’t come along as quickly as anybody would like. The latest news is that Gates is only 65-70% healed as of July 23rd, and he is just now beginning some simple running drills to test his foot.

In other words, Gates isn’t going to be ready for training camp practices, and his availability for the start of regular season is in serious doubt. As Gates tells it: “Obviously, it’s a process. I’m a lot better than I felt a month ago. I can say that. I have no determinant on when and how fast I’ll be coming back. But right now, I feel good. It’s a little sore, but it’s tolerable.”

At this point, Gates has plummeted down my draft board to #9 at his position to represent my best guess that Gates will miss most or all of September as he continues to work back into football shape. I simply do not believe that he will be ready for full speed football at the start of regular season, although the team may field him occassionally as a decoy while he gets back into condition. I’ve slashed approximately 25% off his projections for 2008, down to 60/750/6 receiving, as a result of my analysis of his injury woes.

The Chargers do have some good injury news on the eve of training camp - QB Philip Rivers has come back from his torn ACL in fine form and the knee is not an issue for him at all. “I’ve been going full-go now for over a month,” Rivers said in late July. “There’s nothing I can’t do. There are times throughout the day I can’t tell which knee I hurt.”

For Rivers, the glass is half full. He’s healthy, but his top receiver over the last 4 years, Gates, isn’t ready to roll. We’ll see who benefits from the passes that would have flowed to Gates - backup Scott Chandler has been working as the substitute pass-catching TE in practices during the spring while Gates nursed his foot.

According to the Arizona Republic’s Kent Somers, WR Anquan Boldin and team mate Darnell Dockett will report to training camp on time despite indications otherwise earlier this spring.

“Anquan is not the type of guy to hold out,” said Drew Rosenhaus, who represents both players. “He’s a very principled guy. It’s just not in his makeup.”

Given the current situation at QB, with Matt Leinart working back up to speed after missing most of last season, the news that Boldin plans to participate in a full slate of practices/team meetings bodes well for his 2008 prospects. The Cardinals hope that Leinart is ready for a “breakout” season in his 3rd season in the league, and he appears focused on making his mark in the NFL this year. In late June, Leinart stated: . “It is time for me to step up and really time for me to go out there and play. I have to prove myself.”

Leinart’s time is now - if he is ready to join the club of elite NFL QBs this year, Boldin and company could surpass even the current high expectations that many have for the Cardinals’ WR stable. Boldin has enhanced his status as a premier fantasy talent with his decision to report to training camp with his team mates.

Jeremy Shockey has been traded to the New Orleans Saints, ending months of speculation. About six weeks ago I wrote an analysis on Eli Manning in our Player Spotlight feature. At the time, the Jeremy Shockey situation was in flux and I warned Giants fans to be careful what they wish for:

The Jeremy Shockey Factor. Rumors persist that Jeremy Shockey is going to be traded to the New Orleans Saints. Is it possible that trading away a 4-time Pro Bowler can be a positive development? The argument for moving Shockey is that New York won a Super Bowl without him and, in his absence, Eli Manning was more productive. The drama that surrounds Shockey is distracting and divisive; and GM Jerry Reese and HC Tom Coughlin have the goodwill to shed themselves of the headache. The argument against trading Shockey is that he’s not easily replaced. In spite of his personality quirks, Shockey has been a MAJOR portion of Eli Manning’s success. Over the last three seasons, Shockey has accounted for:

• 20.2% of the team’s receptions (188)
• 20.6% of the team’s receiving yards (2,133)
• 23.9% of the team’s receiving TDs (17)

No disrespect to Kevin Boss, but he’s not going to replicate that kind of productivity. The Giants are going to have to reshape their offense if the Shockey trade happens; and that’s unlikely to lead to better passing numbers over a full 16-game season.

Apologies to my colleague Mark Wimer, but he isn’t seeing the forest for the trees here. We, as football fans, tend to put way too much credence on a small subset of playoff games and not enough weight on a player’s entire body of work. Eli Manning has been VERY CONSISTENT over his three full seasons under center, so much so that his playoff run last year very likely equals the anomaly not the new rule. 

I would ask anyone to show me a QB that loses 20% of their passing productivity and IMPROVES the following year. Manning was already no better than a fringe fantasy starter and now, even if you assume other players pick up most of the slack, it’s hard to see Manning represent value at his current ADP.

Here’s a quick rundown of the fantasy implications from this trade:

• QB Drew Brees – Brees was already one of the “elite 4″ at his position, along with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo. With the addition of Shockey, it makes Brees a safer bet because he could survive the loss of someone like Colston for a few weeks. Brees now becomes someone you can justify taking in the 2nd or 3rd round.
• QB Eli Manning — Manning just lost 20% of his yards and 24% of his TD passes. Even if you think Manning would’ve shown natural improvement this year, this trade almost assuredly offsets any natural gains. At his current ADP, it’s hard to get excited about Manning as a fantasy prospect, but there will be a number of owners in your league who disagree.
• TE Jeremy Shockey – Sean Payton used to coach Shockey and knows his talents. With an elite QB in Drew Brees, and a new lease on life, expect a bounce back season. Shockey need only stay healthy (meaning 14 or more games) to deliver another quality season. He’s an every week fantasy starter, but don’t go crazy and expect his numbers to skyrocket. The Saints have lots of other weapons, so Shockey will have to make due with some tough weeks while other players shine.
• TE Eric Johnson — Mark got this one right, Johnson goes from an intriguing fantasy backup and late round pick to someone that needs to stay on your waiver wire. He could conceivably be released and sign on with another team, but until that happens, he’s not worth paying attention to.
• TE Kevin Boss — Boss gets a chance to start and that could me a lot of targets. But understand that Boss isn’t the athlete or play-maker that Shockey is. As long as you set reasonable expectations, Boss now becomes worthy of a roster spot but purely as a long-shot backup and bye week fill in.
• WR Marques Colston — Colston makes his $$$ in the red zone, and Shockey does, too. Shockey’s addition makes Colston’s TD upside slightly less compelling, but ultimately not enough to dissuade us from drafting him at current ADP.
• WR Plaxico Burress – Burress was already a favorite target and that won’t change. If anything, this puts more pressure on Plax to deliver game in, game out. On the margin, Burress was already a top-12 fantasy prospect and remains so.

The good news is the Giants won a Super Bowl without Shockey and have probably been planning to go this year without him from the start. The team is going to have to alter its offensive philosophy a bit, and be open to using more 3-WR and 4-WR sets; in which case the team’s total productivity could look relatively similar. The Saints are already putting up such big passing numbers that it’s hard to imagine a substantive increase. Shockey likely takes away production from the Saints WR corps and, possibly, RB Reggie Bush.

Be sure to check out Footballguys.com for our updated rankings and projections. We should have the Shockey impact modeled when the next set of projections are released later in the week.

Jeremy Shockey got his wish today, leaving the Giants’ organization that angered him during the Super Bowl by not allowing him on the sidelines. Whatever his fans or detractors think of how the situation shook out, there are several obvious (and a couple not-so-obvious) fantasy implications regarding this move.

First of all, Eric Johnson’s prospects in New Orleans just took a massive hit. He should plummet down (and probably off) your TE board. At the same time, Kevin Boss is looking like a possible top-10 candidate among fantasy TEs, given the new depth chart in New York (none of the guys behind Boss - Michael Matthews, Jerome Collins, Darcy Johnson, Eric Butler - are household names - Matthews caught 6 balls last season).

Boss was reasonably productive during the playoff push last year after Jeremy Shockey was out of the picture - and that will be the case from the get-go this year in the wake of Shockey’s trade to New Orleans. However, Boss only snagged 1 catch per game during the final 3 playoff games, so it remains to be seen how heavily the team will involve him in the passing game. Boss was reported to have added 20 pounds to his playing weight over the winter (up to 272) - we’ll see where he’s as training camp progresses, now that the pass-catching role is his to lose. Stay tuned to find out how the Giants utilize Boss in Shockey’s absence.

Regarding Shockey, the unknown quantity will be how he meshes with Drew Brees and company down in New Orleans - in their high-octane offense, he certainly is a candidate for reaching elite status among fantasy TEs. However, he’ll have to work hard and, more importantly, show good “coachability” as he gets fast-tracked into the Saints’ offense. It is an understatement to say that working well with others hasn’t been Shockey’s strong suit during his years in New York - we’ll see if his new destination brings out the best (or worst) in Shockey’s game.

Finally, many observers (including this one) believe that Eli Manning’s strong showing during the closing weeks of 2007 and during the playoffs was partly due to the elimination of the distractions caused by and the pressures/demands imposed by Shockey on Manning. Always wanting the ball is usually a good quality in a pro athlete, but in the case of the Giants’ offense, the subtraction of Shockey seemed to add to Manning’s prowess/confidence. He made better decisions with the ball and didn’t feel pressured to “force” throws into Boss’s arms. With the permanent elimination of Shockey from Manning’s offense, we may see Eli Manning continue to progress as a top-flight pro QB (especially in terms of his ability to utilize all the weapons at his disposal as opportunities present themselves).

Those of us in the DC area already know what I’m talking about, but the DC Dictator has reached out now to squash a part of the local radio market.

That’s right, Danny Snyder has purchased the DC Sports Talk Radio station - Formerly Sports Talk 980, and this morning I turn it on and find it is “ESPN 980″.

Yeah, that was me in my car this morning with the confused look on my face.

That’s right, like many in the Maryland area who can get Baltimore and DC radio, now we can get Mike and Mike’s national show (hard-hitting as usual) on TWO stations and now have zero alternative.

For those not familiar with 980, it is also (or was also) the primary station for Fox Sports Radio’s Morning Show with Steve Czaban (”The First Team on FOX”). Can you imagine being a national show host and having your local station rip you off the air? I can’t, and Steve does his best to hold his tongue (something he’s NOT known for, thankfully) at The Daily Czabe.

Other local radio hosts (not a fan of them) are now gone as well, but I just couldn’t believe that they took FSR’s morning show off the air.

Every time a local market gets less diverse, there is a problem - but to lose a national radio host seems like a big hit, especially in a big market like the DC Metro area.

Local sports fans are not that happy with the decision either, as you can imagine, as all local hosts were nuked except for The Sports Reporters (also with Czaban) in the afternoon. Yeah, I’m sure that will be uneventful once Czaban blasts management again.

Fans of FSR’s Morning Show can still listen on XM Satellite radio (and possibly Sirius down the line after XM and Sirius merge), but to make everyone hunt for another option seems like a bad move. Which leads me back to the owner of the Redskins, so I guess I shouldn’t be so surprised.

The infamous phrase “nagging hamstring injury” had haunted Jerry Porter throughout spring workouts, and on Friday, July 18th the “nagging” injury became a reason for surgery. Porter is expected to be out 6-8 weeks due to the procedure, which repaired a torn hamstring tendon in his leg. On Saturday the 19th, coach Jack Del Rio asserted “Jerry had a successful surgical repair to a hamstring tendon that had continued to bother him. We expect a complete recovery in time for the regular season.”

However, expecting a complete physical recovery for Porter is not the same thing as expecting him to contribute as the team’s #1 WR. Porter has been trying to build rapport with his new QB, David Garrard, and learn a new offensive system/nomenclature, but the nagging hamstring injury limited his repetitions during spring workouts. With the entire training camp now out of reach for Porter, fantasy owners have to revise their expectations for Porter with his new team.

The bottom line here is that Porter has not had a chance to get fully up to speed in the Jacksonville offense, and now he won’t get that chance during training camp. He may not be comfortable with his assignments until mid-season, if then - in my opinion, 2008 may be a “lost season” for Porter due to this combination of relocation and injury.

However, there may be a silver lining to this cloud for astute fantasy owners. Now that Porter is sidelined (and Matt Jones apparently headed out the door due to his drug arrest), Reggie Williams, Mike Williamson, Dennis Northcutt and Mike Walker all have a shot at headlining the passing attack, with Williams sporting an early edge as he was already penciled in as a starter. Marcedes Lewis may see more action at the TE position, as well. As training camp progresses, it may be possible to uncover a true “sleeper” WR among the Jacksonville wideouts - the situation is very fluid now, and somebody figures to benefit from Porter’s misfortune. Pay attention to the story as it unfolds, as you could snag a featured wide receiver on the cheap in your 2008 fantasy draft.

It’s hard to believe that it took the loss of Philip Daniels to season-ending knee surgery to get the always active Daniel Snyder to trade for sack master Jason Taylor. But shortly after Daniels was lost for the season in 7-on-7 drills in practice, the team put together a package (2nd and 6th round draft picks) to acquire the 33-year old defensive end from the Miami Dolphins.

It’s no secret that Taylor has been on the market since the day Bill Parcells took over the franchise. While it’s unclear why Parcells and Taylor seemed ill at ease with one another, the fact remains a deal to move the 6-time Pro Bowler has been in the works for a long time.

Taylor, who chose to spend his offseason Dancing with the Stars instead of practicing with the fins joins a team that plays a 4-3 defensive front and is in desperate need of another defensive playmaker. While Taylor isn’t a spring chicken, he’s inarguably among the best conditioned athletes in the league and remains highly effective:

• Taylor had 11 sacks last year
• His 117 career sacks put him 14th all-time
• He has six seasons of 10+ sacks, including the last three consecutively
• Taylor hasn’t missed a game since 1999

What does this mean for fantasy owners?

Washington ranked 16th last year with 33 sacks. The addition of Taylor should push them into the top-10; which means more chances for the defensive secondary to make big plays on the ball, to boot. The Redskins are a team in flux this year with a new head Coach (Jim Zorn), offensive coordinator (Sherm Smith) and defensive coordinator (Greg Blache) but now have a weapon that might make them competitive in the toughest division in the NFC. The ability to generate big plays (sacks, INTs, defensive TDs) is the difference between being a fantasy afterthought or an every week starting option. The Skins MAY have just moved from the former to the latter.

Brian Westbrook is apparently unhappy with his contract situation - unhappy enough to fire his current agent and switch to a new agency, according to the Delaware News Journal . As part of his agitation for a new contract, Westbrook is said to be considering a training camp holdout.

While this is a developing situation - we won’t know if Westbrook will follow through with his threat until next Thursday, when veterans are scheduled to report to the Eagles’ training camp - it is definitely worth keeping an eye on. The Eagles are known as some of the toughest customers in the NFL when it comes to contract renegotiations, and team president Joe Banner went on record about the matter back in February, stating “I would suggest one or two years into a five-year contract doesn’t make any sense…You start to get into the third or fourth year, and you have to look at situation by situation.”. Meanwhile, Westbrook’s position is that he has significantly out-produced his old deal in the last 2 years (which is quite evident in the numbers he’s posted since the deal was signed).

We’ll see how both sides react once Westbrook hires his new agents over the weekend and the two parties start (or re-start) talks - right now, there is time for an accomodation to be arrived at, although time is short.

Stay tuned…

QB Josh McCown was doing chores on his property in Jacksonville, Texas with his brother Luke when some bad luck rolled Josh’s way. The pair were clearing some brush when “I was holding down a little piece of a tree trunk and my little brother, Luke, had the chainsaw. He hit a knob and the chainsaw jumped.”

A split second later, Josh had a chunk of his index finger missing as the chain saw chewed into his hand. The injured QB was rushed to the hospital and received 6 stitches to close the wound, but it appears that the McCowns were fortunate in that no serious damage was done to Josh’s hand. “I clenched my fist to make sure the tendon was working. I walked out of the emergency room and got a football out of the trunk and fired a few passes to Luke, and knew I could’ve played that day. My daddy would say, ‘Let’s get it sewn up and go to work.’”

Josh McCown has since decided that he will refrain from operating chain saws in the future - at least, until his days playing in the NFL are over.

Dolphins’ teams doctors will inspect the wound and supervise McCown’s recovery - he is not expected to miss any time in training camp due to the accident. Hopefully, McCown will not suffer a setback due to infection (chain saw cuts are notorious for having complications due to the jagged wounds they cause and because foreign matter gets incorporated into the wound - dirt, chips of bark/splinters of wood, and etc.).

I’ve mentioned many times how wonderful the forum community is at Footballguys. There isn’t a place on the internet that has as comprehensive, fun and CIVIL conversations about all things football related (and so much more). Our main football forum, The Shark Pool, is a daily fount of interesting conversations.

In an effort to call attention to some of those discussions, we’re going to try to highlight some of the more interesting threads on the blog. We would invite any of you who aren’t already on the forums to give it a try.

Today one of our members, kethnaab, pointed out some interesting similarities between the careers of LaDainian Tomlinson and Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk.

So leading into 2008, most people have LT as their #1 pick, right? Just providing this for informational purposes as I found it rather interesting. It implies nothing, although gives one reason to pause simply because a statistical analysis of their careers provides some pretty crazy similarities. For reference purposes, we will use 2007 for LT and 2001 for Marshall Faulk as the “baseline” years for reasons which will become obvious.

Leading up to the 2002/2008 seasons, Faulk/LT…

• Gained 14,889/14,025 yards on 2703/2823 touches.
• Amassed 2149/2177 fantasy points in their careers
• Had been the #1 RB for 2 consecutive seasons and had been top 3 RB for 4 consecutive seasons
• Had been a top 7 RB for 7 seasons in their careers
• Had 4 seasons with at least 1,900 yards from scrimmage
• Had 6/7 seasons with > 10 TDs and 2 seasons > 20 TDs
• Had career averages of 4.4/4.5 YPC, with 2 seasons under 4 YPC and 3/2 seasons > 5 YPC
• Had 3 consecutive seasons with > 300 fantasy points (non-PPR)
• Amassed their best yards from scrimmage seasons when Faulk became 1 of 2 RBs in NFL history to gain 1,000 yards receiving in a season, and LT became 1 of 2 RBs in NFL history to get 100 receptions in a season
• Had 7x 1000-yard rushing seasons and 7x seasons > 1500 yards from scrimmage
• Set the NFL TD record at the age of 27
• Were RB1 in fantasyland that season and the next, at the age of 28
• The year after they set the TD records, a QB posted one of the best seasons ever (Kurt Warner ‘01 and Tom Brady ‘07)

Now for where it gets weird:

• Faulk and LT were widely considered the obvious #1 fantasy football RB choices by just about everyone
• Faulk and LT both experienced a “challenger” that made their status as the obvious #1 FF RB questionable while going into 2002/2008
• In the preceding season, Faulk and LT experienced their high-water marks for fantasy points by setting the NFL TD record
• During 2001/2007 and 2000/2006, both Faulk and LT were the #1 RB
• The 2 years prior (1999/2005 and 1998/2004) both Faulk and LT were top-3 RB and top-5 overall
• Although both were RB1 in the year after they set the TD record, many people considered it an “off-year” because their overall production declined due to a decrease in yardage and TDs.

Yes, there are obvious differences, especially if you nitpick, but the similarities are still pretty striking.

As you might imagine, that analysis fostered some strong opinions from other forum members:

• LarryAllen’sjockstrap points out the obvious difference, “The only thing you didn’t mention was that in both 2000 and 2001, Marhsall Faulk only played 14 games each season due to knee issues. His knee was already a problem two seasons before his decline began. LT hasn’t shown any indication of any type of degenerative injury.”
• fruity pebbles added, “I wouldn’t (take Tomlinson 1st in a dynasty draft). For me the reasoning is all about value. His value can only go down going forward. Once he turns 30, that’s all you’re going to hear when discussing a trade involving him. If he starts to falter there is no floor as to how far his value can drop. There’s a lot more leniency given to young guys.”

So what do you think? Personally I still have Tomlinson firmly entrenched atop the fantasy rankings, but admittedly one of these years he’s going to hit that inevitable downslope in the production curve and never return to the #1 status. The question is, if you’re picking 1st overall, could you REALLY justify passing on him for another back? Are any of the other options any less of an injury risk, if not more so?

Kevin Jones signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Bears today. The talented but oft-injured running back lands in one of the few places where he could conceivably earn a large role presuming he’s healthy enough. The Bears parted ways with Cedric Benson earlier this summer and Jones is obviously betting on the opportunity for playing time.

Jones’ talent isn’t in question…

At 5′11″, 221 pounds, Jones is a bruising runner with a straight-ahead style befitting of the smash mouth history of Soldier Field. Although Jones has never been a fantasy star, he has shown considerable promise when healthy:

• As a rookie, Jones ran for 1,133 yards and caught another 28 passes for 180 yards
• In 2006, Jones was asked to play a role as a receiver and answered the call with 61 receptions for 520 yards
• Last year, despite running injured and behind a bad Lions offensive line, he had 8 rushing TDs in just 153 carries

What Jones hasn’t done is put together a full season where all of his myriad talents are simultaneously on display.

Jones’ health, on the other hand, IS in question…

• Bruised shoulder
• Hyperextended elbow
• Concussion
• Hip pointer
• Thigh contusion

…those were just some of the reasons Kevin Jones appeared on the injury report early in his career. And those were nothing compared to his two latest maladies:

• Lisfranc – Jones injured his foot and had to undergo surgery to repair his Lisfranc injury. He surprised many by rehabbing fast enough to get back on the field early in 2007
• Torn ACL — But that enthusiasm didn’t last for the entire season as Jones tore his ACL late in the 2007 season, putting  him on IR
  

So if he’s got a torn ACL, how did he work out for teams and why did Chicago sign him?

Jones is proving to be as much a fast healer as he is easily hurt. He, by all accounts, is ahead of the normal schedule for rehabbing a torn ACL and was able to showcase some of his talents (as well as show structural integrity of the knee) at a private workout several weeks ago.

Chicago is taking no risk here. They have need of RB depth, and are committing nothing more than a few hundred thousand dollars this year. Even if Jones isn’t healthy enough to suit up this season, it’s a financial bet worth making. Because if he IS 100% healthy, they’ve landed arguably the best veteran free agent RB on the market.

What does this mean for Matt Forte? 

I wouldn’t read much into the Jones signing if you’re a fan of Matt Forte. Jones is getting the veteran minimum to try an earn a place on the team. That doesn’t obviate the need for a young, workhorse back and the only one of the roster that fits that bill is rookie Matt Forte. On the margin, the Bears may give Forte a few less carries each game if Jones is healthy and sticks on the roster, but don’t think this signing means Forte can’t or won’t win the lead job.

Is there now a greater chance of a true RB-by-Committee approach in Chicago? Unfortunately yes. But at Forte’s current ADP, you don’t have to pay up to get him.

As Jason Wood pointed out after the news of Peyton Manning’s knee surgery broke, if there is any QB in the league able to miss training camp without too much of an ill effect, it is surely Peyton Manning, who could probably run the Indianapolis offense while asleep.

However, according to our resident FBG doctor Jene Bramel, the usual recovery time for a surgery that removes a bursa sack is 6-8 weeks, not the more optimistic 4-6 weeks that the Colts floated in their initial press conference relating to this situation - and if complications arise from the procedure, we could be talking even longer than 8 weeks before Manning is under center once again.

There is a very real possibility that Indianapolis could be starting the 2008 season with Jim Sorgi under center for a significant portion of September (at the least). Sorgi has been with the Colts his entire career (he’s entering his 5th year in the league), so he’s had plenty of reps in the offense over the years. He’s actually been pretty good with the football in his limited appearances during regular season, compiling 78/127 for 751 yards, 6 TDs and 1 interception in 15 appearances. That’s a very respectable 61.4% completion rate, with only 1 pick out of 127 chances. Obviously, there isn’t a huge book on Sorgi so far, but another 6th round pick out of the Big 10 conference has fared pretty well in this league when given his chance (Tom Brady, anyone?).

As Sorgi is the only other QB on the roster as of today, and the only other QB in the NFL with extensive experience running Tom Moore’s offense as it has evolved over the past half-decade, he’s going to be the guy under the gun if Manning can’t get back in the mix as of September.

Those fantasy owners out there plotting to scoop Manning at a discounted price due to his knee surgery had better plan on acquiring Sorgi in the closing rounds of your draft as well. Those of you who play in cut-throat leagues with opposing owners who like to draft back-up players and then hold the owners of the starters up for ransom in situations like this one may wish to spend a late mid-round pick on Sorgi if you’ve invested in Manning.

Good luck, and Happy Drafting!

The NFL’s reigning iron man, Peyton Manning, underwent knee surgery today to remove an infected bursa sac in his left knee and will miss the next 4 to 6 weeks. Bill Polian had the following to say on the matter, according to Scout.com:

“Peyton Manning had an infected bursa sac removed from his left knee this afternoon,” Polian said. “The procedure was routine. The Colts’ medical staff expects a full and complete return to action in four to six weeks.”

Polian added that the knee had been bothering Manning since the end of the 2007-08 season and only recently escalated, requiring surgery.

“Peyton had been receiving conservative treatment for an inflamed bursa sac in consultation with the club’s medical staff since February, 2008,” Polian said in his statement. “This course of treatment was productive until Peyton experienced increased pain and early signs of infection. Peyton will meet with the press as normally scheduled at the opening of training camp.”

Let’s be clear about one thing, there’s no such thing as “routine” knee surgery in the middle of July.  While I’m no doctor, the fact this was a pre-existing condition that worsened to the point of requiring surgery has to be a concern, particularly for a guy that we’ve come to blindly expect to start 16 games every season.

The Good News: 

Manning is better suited than most NFL QBs to miss training camp. He’s obviously a master of OC Tom Moore’s offensive system at this point in his career and doesn’t require a lot of reps to get back into the swing of things. Importantly, the majority of his offensive supporting cast is also experienced enough to not require a massive amount of reps with Manning in order to operate at a high level once the season gets underway.

The Bad News:

Again, knee surgery in July has to raise some eyebrows. While the Colts are characterizing this as a “procedure”, there’s absolutely no reason to give Manning or the Colts the benefit of the doubt until he’s back on the field and practicing fully.

Fantasy Implications:

Only 12 NFL QBs played all 16 games last year, we have a tendency to take for granted just how durable guys like Manning really are. There’s no question that Manning’s rock solid health has played a part in fantasy owners willingness to spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on him. While this knee surgery may turn out to be nothing more than a few weeks off from training camp, it’s probably going to cast enough doubt to drop his ADP a round or two. Manning will still be the 2nd QB off the boards in most leagues, barring news of a further setback. If you draft in late August or early September, make sure Manning is back on the practice field before spending a high pick on him. If you draft beforehand, we strongly recommend you pass on him unless he falls at least a round beyond his current Average Draft Position (13th player drafted, 2nd QB).