Steven Jackson, a 2nd Iteration Projection Problem
It is that time of year again when fantasy football maniacs everywhere start working on refining their projections for the 2008 season. Over the weekend, I finished my first iteration of projections/rankings - my very rough first draft - and now I am in the process of reviewing those numbers after letting the numbers/rankings sit for a day for perspective. Like a lot of people who do their own projections, for me there are a number of players who present a special challenge because of my past history regarding that player and my expectations of said players. Steven Jackson of the St. Louis Rams is one of these players on my board entering 2008.
Heading into 2006, Jackson was in the process of supplanting Marshall Faulk (who finished his career during 2005) as the Rams’ starting RB. Many observers in fantasy circles were convinced that Jackson was on the fast track to fantasy stardom - I was not one of those people. The increasing age of the St. Louis OL and their lack of depth were a concern, and Jackson hadn’t been overwhelming during his 2005 run (254/1046/8 rushing with 43/320/2 receiving - the 11th best fantasy RB in the NFL). Contrary to most folks, I felt that Jackson was likely to backslide during 2006 once he was “the” guy, simply because the Rams as an offensive unit were not as impressive as they had been earlier in the decade, and I wasn’t sold that Jackson would be able to take the full-time pounding incurred by a featured NFL back. Well, I was wrong. Jackson went out and proved himself a legitimate NFL star during 2006, with 346/1528/13 rushing and 90/806/3 receiving (3rd best fantasy RB in the land) - a shoddy offensive line didn’t limit Jackson’s per carry average (4.4 yards per tote) and he was able to handle the additional 139 touches (92 more carries and 47 more receptions) over 2005 without perceptible slow-down due to injury or fatigue.
A Great Season - I was sold along with everyone else. This guy is going to be fantasy gold. He resided in my top 5 RBs throughout preseason 2007, as a proven commodity in fantasy terms.
Enter 2007 - the Ram’s offensive line continued to deteriorate (notably, LT Orlando Pace tore the labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder in the season opener, after going down to a torn triceps muscle during week 10 the year before). Jackson suffered from a bulging disk in his back and missed 4 games (along with stretches of other contests), shedding 109 carries and 52 carries (161 fewer touches) compared to 2006. However, when healthy enough to play, Jackson managed a 4.2 yards per carry average despite the patchwork OL deployed on the field. When the dust settled, Jackson gained 237/1002/5 rushing and 38/271/1 receiving to land at 14th among all fantasy RBs - definitely not the top-5 result most of us had projected for him prior to 2007, and more in line with what I had expected to happen during 2006.
So, here we are on the cusp of the 2008 NFL Draft, and somehow I need to decide whether to take a glass-more-than-half-full or a glass-less-than-half-empty view of Jackson’s prospects for 2008. With the loss of Isaac Bruce to the 49ers, the continuing injury woes for Marc Bulger - and the god-awful OL in front of Bulger, that allowed 48 sacks last season (37 on Bulger) after subjecting him to 49 sacks the year before - will Jackson get a chance to rebound to the mid 400 range in touches, or will he check in closer to the 275 chances he recorded during 2007?
The Rams ‘07 record doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, given that they played in the softest division in the NFL last year and could only scrape up 3 wins. The Rams’ defense allowed 438 points last year (31st in the NFL), a situation that usually favors the WRs over the RBs in fantasy terms (playing from behind tends to limit the rushing dimension of the game). I don’t expect the St. Louis D to be a whole lot stronger during 2008, either.
What to do, what to DO?
Loading ...
