Fun With Defensive Statistics — Part 2
We’ll continue our Fun With Defensive Statistics series with a look into just how scary defensive backs were in 2007. In the words of the great hunter Elmer Fudd, “Be vewy, vewy careful” before putting too much stock in the overall DB stats from 2007.
Top 5 2007 DBs (FBG scoring)
- Leigh Bodden 184.50
- Nate Clements 180.75
- Marcus Trufant 179.75
- Chris Harris 174.50
- Roman Harper 172.50
- One player (Cedric Griffin) over 80 solo tackles with 82.
- Worst starter (#36) PPG (min 5 games) = 9.34
2006
- 8 defensive backs over 185 fpts
- 6 defensive backs over 80 solos (three with 89)
- 2007 #12 would have finished 21st
- 2007 #36 would have finished 41st
2005
- 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts (all 190+, three with 200+)
- 9 defensive backs over 80 solos (three over 90)
- 2007 #12 would have finished 19th
- 2007 #36 would have finished 46th
2004
- 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts (three with 200+)
- 4 defensive backs over 80 solos
- 2007 #12 would have finished 18th
- 2007 #36 would have finished 49th
2003
- 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts
- 5 defensive backs over 80 solos
- 2007 #12 would have finished T19th
- 2007 #36 would have finished 42nd
Bottom line:
2007 was the least productive season in the last five years for defensive backs. This season’s #1 overall DB would have finished no better than 6th in any of the previous five seasons. The overall tackle stats for defensive backs, the bread and butter of most IDP systems, were significantly down. The nominal worst DB1 starter in 2007 would barely have been a mid DB2 at any point over the past five seasons. And the “worst starter” in a start 3 DB league was easily the worst in five years.
Obviously, there are injury issues that skew this data some. But, while I expect to be in the minority come July, I think those that risk a pick on a potential “stud” safety next summer will find themselves rewarded handsomely. Considering that you’ll probably be able to get a player from that group at least one round later than in prior seasons, there’s even better value to be had.
Potential pitfalls:
The rise of the 3-4, Tampa-2 and hybrid nickel schemes could be depressing DB values, particularly the benchmark strong safeties. The influx of stud young linebacker talent may also be depressing safety values overall. Or it could simply be that 2005-2006 were DB years, not unlike the recent rise of the TE on the offensive side.
I think there are valid arguments against any of those potential issues, however, and, pending a glut of scheme/draft/free agency flies in the ointment, am planning on taking advantage of the negative DB bias created by the DB Massacre of 2007. The key, as always and with every position, will be to pick the right guys to rebound or break out.
Happy hunting.
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