The Giants are heading to the Super Bowl, earning a rematch against the undefeated Patriots. No matter where your personal allegiances lie, you have to give the Giants credit for a hard earned berth. They won three straight road games against three division champs. They beat the 1st and 2nd seeds, avenging three of their in-season losses in the process. Along the way, the Giants have won an NFL record 10 straight road games.

No one, even the most ardent Giants fan, would argue the Patriots are a heavy favorite. Vegas puts the game a -11 and, if history is any indication, the line tends to grow in the favorite’s direction as the game approaches.

Now that the matchup is set, the discussion has turned to just how big of an upset would it be if the Giants beat the Patriots in two weeks?

Before we attempt to answer that question, we need to recognize that it’s subjective. Not everyone agrees about the best team in history, the best QB in history or the best RB in history…so we can’t expect everyone to agree about the greatest Super Bowl upset in league history, either. That said, here are my thoughts on the matter:

The Point Spread Approach

Personally, I don’t think point spreads are the best arbiter of this kind of discussion; but a lot of people do put faith in the betting line. To that end, the Giants are currently 11-point underdogs. If the spread holds at 11 points, it wouldn’t come close to matching the New York Jets in Super Bowl III. Joe Namath’s team were 17-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. More recently, the New England Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and won outright. In fact, the Giants would be tied for 4th place in SB history, according to point spread:

• Super Bowl III: New York Jets (+18) over Baltimore Colts
• Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots (+14) over St. Louis Rams
• Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs (+12) over Minnesota Vikings
• Super Bowl XXXII: Denver Broncos (+11) over Green Bay Packers
• Super Bowl XLII???: New York Giants (+11) over New England Patriots
  

The Margin of Victory Approach

Margin of victory is an valuable tool in comparing teams. In a league where the average margin of victory is slightly more than a field goal, margin of victory helps illustrate the best teams; teams that can win handily; whether that be by virtue of an explosive offense or a stifling defense. As you might imagine, teams with a high margin of victory traditionally beat opponents with lower margins of victory; that’s basic math.

Key Talking Points:

• The 2007 New England Patriots set an NFL record for margin of victory (19.7 PPG)
• The 2007 New York Giants margin of victory (1.4 PPG) is the 3rd lowest in Super Bowl history
• 2/3rds of Super Bowl winners have had a better regular season margin of victory than their opponent
• 1/3rd (14 of 41) Super Bowl winners have had a smaller margin of victory than their opponent

Here is a list of the Super Bowl champions that had smaller margins of victory than their opponents:

As you can see, the Jets victory of the Colts stands atop this list, while (surprise, surprise), the Patriots victory over the Rams is a close second.

Now consider the implied differential if New York beat New England:

• New England Margin of Victory = 19.7 PPG
• New York Margin of Victory = 1.4 PPG
• Implied Differential = (18.3)
  

This would be the most surprising SB victory, BY MORE THAN A FACTOR OF 2X THE PREVIOUS RECORD.

The Winning Percentage Approach

A lot has been made about how we need to “throw the records out” once the playoffs begin. Yet, history shows us that’s really not logical. When push comes to shove, the team with the better regular season record USUALLY wins the Super Bowl; it’s that simple.

Key Talking Points:

• The New England Patriots, the first 16-0 team in history, obviously had a 1.000 winning percentage
• The New York Giants (10-6), had a 0.625 winning percentage
• 10 of 41 (24.3%) Super Bowl champs had a worse winning percentage than their opponent

Here is a list of Super Bowl champs that had worse winning percentages than their opponents:

Interestingly, the Packers’ victory over the Raiders in Super Bowl II tops this list [they ranked 3rd based on margin of victory differential], and those were followed by New England over the Rams [2nd in our margin analysis] and Namath’s Jets over the Colts [1st place in the margin analysis].

Now, consider what a Giants victory would imply:

• New England Patriots (16-0) = 1.000% winning percentage
• New York Giants (10-6) = 62.5% winning percentage
• Implied Differential = (-37.5%)
  

Thinking of this another way, no SB champ in HISTORY has beaten an opponent with more than 3.5 more wins in the regular season, yet were the Giants to win they would have done so finishing SIX GAMES BEHIND the Patriots in the standings.

CONCLUSION

It’s difficult if not impossible to compare eras. In this case, the earliest Super Bowls pitted two entirely different leagues against one another, and football historians would say, as a result, their regular season accomplishments weren’t apples to apples. Therefore, some will always contend that Joe Namath’s New York Jets victory of the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III was the greatest upset in professional football history. The most contemporary upset would be the Patriots victory over the Rams [which ironically started the Patriots dynastic run we’re now dissecting]. By any objective measure, a Giants victory against the Patriots this year would be right up there with those two upsets. To my mind, based on the differential in their respective finishes this season, it WOULD be THE biggest upset in Super Bowl history. But even if you disagree, it’s hard to argue it wouldn’t be AMONG the biggest upsets.

I’m all for the NFL owners openness to new coaching candidates. The idea that they’re no longer content to simply recycle the same old names over and over is refreshing, particularly in a year when there were only four head coaching vacancies (with Tony Dungy possibly providing a fifth).

But JOHN HARBAUGH?

Seriously?

For those who haven’t been paying attention to the Ravens coaching situation, they officially named John Harbaugh the team’s newest head coach, with a 4-year deal rumored to be in the $2mm per year range. Harbaugh was the Ravens backup plan after Jason Garrett turned down their offer earlier in the week.

I’m an Eagles season ticket holder and have to say I’m pretty stunned at this hire. Harbaugh was an Eagles assistant coach since 1998, and apparently his experience under Andy Reid; one of the most successful coaches of the decade, was a huge positive in the eyes of Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti. While I can understand the allure, I still have to wonder whether Harbaugh is ready for this challenge. Remember, the lion’s share of his NFL coaching resume was as a SPECIAL TEAMS coordinator. He was named the NFL Special Teams coach of the year in 2001; and frankly that reputation carried him over the last few seasons. As an Eagles fan, I can say with absolute certainty that the Eagles special teams has been anywhere from mediocre to downright terrible for years. It’s the one area where the team has needed massive improvement during most of the decade. This year, he took over as the secondary coach…but one has to wonder what kind of impact he really made. It’s a largely veteran secondary and the team continues to run the same system under long-time DC Jim Johnson.

To Ravens fans, I wish you luck. It wasn’t that long ago that people were lambasting the Eagles for hiring Andy Reid. At the time, Reid had never been an NFL coordinator and was best known as Brett Favre’s QB coach. The conventional wisdom was that Reid would be overmatched at the outset. Five NFC East titles later and we all know better. Maybe Harbaugh will be that next great coach who comes from an unconventional route. Or, as I suspect, this could end up being the head scratcher that so many of us think it is.

We knew it was inevitable, but today it became official. Tony Sparano is the Miami Dolphins new head coach. Most know that Sparano spent four seasons with Parcells in Dallas, but they may not be aware of his prior NFL stops.

• 1999-2000: Offensive Quality Control, Cleveland Browns

Sparano got his NFL start under Chris Palmer with the expansion Browns.  An offensive quality control coach is basically the low man on the totem pole, and their job is to basically do anything the head coach, OC and other assistants ask of them.

The Bad News: The Browns were an offensive abomination in both 1999 and 2000; ranking dead last in both yards and points. Sparano wasn’t witness to offensive genius in his first gig.

The Good News: Palmer, the Browns head coach, has long been a favorite of Parcells; and even though the Browns didn’t have a lot of success, there’s no doubt Parcells would trust a recommendation from Palmer when looking for coaches in Big D.

• 2001: Tight Ends Coach, Washington Redskins

Sparano landed on his feet with his first positional coaching job in 2001, under new Redskins head coach Marty Schottenheimer. Unfortunately, Schottenheimer’s run in D.C. was limited to one season and, as a result, Sparano would find himself looking for work yet again after the 2001 season.

The Bad News: Schottenheimer was “one and done” and the Redskins offense ranked just 28th in the league. The Redskins tight ends were a mixed bag, with Zeron Flemister leading the way with 18 catches, 196 yards and 2 TDs.

The Good News: Sparano got to see one of the league’s most successful coaches at work, and actually got high marks in terms of getting reasonably good production out of the collection of TEs.

• 2002: Tight Ends Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars

Sparano moves on to Jacksonville under Tom Coughlin. Again, he’s star crossed as the Jaguars fire Coughlin at season’s end and Jack Del Rio doesn’t choose to retain Sparano.

The Bad News: Coughlin gets bounced after the 2002 season, meaning Sparano is AGAIN looking for work. The Jaguars finish the season 6-10 and their offensive numbers fail to crack the top 20.

The Good News: The tight ends were a bright light in an otherwise moribund passing attack. Kyle Brady and Pete Mitchell combine for 68 receptions, 707 yards and 6 TDs. Putting those numbers in perspective, they represented 25% of the team’s receptions, 23% of the team’s receiving yards and 33% of the team’s passing TDs.

• 2003-2007: Tight Ends/Offensive Line/Assistant Head Coach, Dallas Cowboys

Bill Parcells hires Sparano in 2003, and his role expands over Parcells’ four-year tenure. He ends up as the team’s co-offensive coordinator, assistant head coach, and offensive line coach. His work was so impressive, that he remains in place under new head coach Wade Phillips in 2007. Although he doesn’t have play-calling input in 2007, his work on the offensive line is considered a key to the Cowboys 13-3 season.

The Bad News: Sparano’s role appears to take a back seat in 2007 after a rising star under Parcells. Jason Garrett comes in and asserts control of the play-calling; leaving Sparano to focus on the offensive line.

The Good News: Sparano wouldn’t have the Dolphins head coaching job if not for his work in Dallas. He clearly earned Parcells’ trust and respect, and managed to stay in Dallas despite a coaching change. The Cowboys offense grew from mediocrity to elite during his tenure, and the offensive line and running game were both bright spots.

It should come as no surprise that Tony Sparano is, by all accounts, on the verge of being named the Dolphins new head coach. According to several reports, GM Jeff Ireland took one of Wayne Huizenga’s private jets to Dallas today to pick up Sparano and make the hiring official after weeks of conjecture.

Sparano’s name surfaced almost immediately after Bill Parcells took over football operations. Sparano, who held the title of Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line in Dallas this year was a holdover from Parcells’ staff. In 2006, he was the co-coordinator with Todd Haley, and was heavily involved in the play-calling.

Whether this is a sound hire or not, time will tell. But its one that fits into the Parcells mold. Sparano is a tough guy by reputation, believes in a punishing ground attack and controlling the time of possession. And he certainly is a known commodity for both Parcells and the Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland.

Norm Chow has been fired by the Tennessee Titans as offensive coordinator.

“I appreciate all of the hard work and contributions he made to the organization during his time here, but I have decided to go in a different direction and will start the process of finding a new offensive coordinator,” Fisher said in the statement.

The move may come as a surprise to some given Chow’s reputation as an offensive guru, but observers closer to the situation would argue it was inevitable given Chow’s growing impatience with Vince Young’s development. There are reports that Chow will return to the Pac-10 as UCLA’s offensive coordinator; but either way, his time under Jeff Fisher has now come to a close.

Was Chow’s time in Tennessee a success? It’s difficult to say considering Chow stepped in at the very end of Steve McNair’s tenure and was asked to mentor a raw but promising young QB in Vince Young. For comparison sake, let’s look at Tennessee’s offensive rankings in Chow’s three seasons compared to the three prior seasons (under OC Mike Heimerdinger):

Rushing Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

Chow’s rushing offense was more productive, on average. The Titans produced more rushing yards and more rushing TDs with fewer carries. But remember this included a mobile Vince Young, and even with the improvement, Tennessee failed to produce top-10 offensive rushing totals in any category over Chow’s 3-year span.

Passing Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

This is where Chow failed to earn his paycheck. Vince Young regressed mightily in 2007, and overall Chow’s passing offenses paled in comparison to Heimerdinger’s. Chow’s star was bright BECAUSE of the work with young quarterbacks. He was responsible for developing Steve Young and Ty Detmer while at BYU, Philip Rivers while at NC State and Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC. His inability to bring Young along is, no doubt, where the rubber failed to meet the road.

Total Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

When your passing numbers are pedestrian, it usually guarantees that total offensive rankings aren’t going to be complimentary, either. In Chow’s case, his Titans ranked just 22nd in total yards and 20th in total points, on average, a material drop from the 12th and 11th place, rankings, respectively in the 2002-2004 period.

Will he or won’t he?

As expected, the Baltimore Ravens have made Jason Garrett an offer to replace Brian Billick as head coach. And, equally as expected, Jerry Jones is trying desperately to get some time with Garrett to convince him to stay in Dallas. Wouldn’t we all like to be a fly on the wall right now?

From various and sundry sources, we’re hearing:

• Garrett’s wife came to Baltimore with him and has been touring the city and looking at real estate today
• Garrett has apparently presented a comprehensive list of assistant coaches, alleged to include Cam Cameron and Dom Capers
• Jerry Jones has promised to match any financial offer from Baltimore, but it’s unclear whether he is willing to promise Garrett the head coaching job in 2008
• Baltimore (understandably) wants an answer before he leaves the city

As I said yesterday, Dallas could be the fly in the ointment. But if Baltimore is insisting on Garrett’s decision before he leaves town, that removes a lot of Jones’ leverage. If Garrett genuinely has two former NFL head coaches lined up as his coordinators, I can’t imagine he will say NO unless Jerry Jones somehow promises him the head coaching job in 2008.

We’ll continue our Fun With Defensive Statistics series with a look into just how scary defensive backs were in 2007. In the words of the great hunter Elmer Fudd, “Be vewy, vewy careful” before putting too much stock in the overall DB stats from 2007.

Top 5 2007 DBs (FBG scoring)

1. Leigh Bodden 184.50
2. Nate Clements 180.75
3. Marcus Trufant 179.75
4. Chris Harris 174.50
5. Roman Harper 172.50

• One player (Cedric Griffin) over 80 solo tackles with 82.
• Worst starter (#36) PPG (min 5 games) = 9.34

2006

• 8 defensive backs over 185 fpts
• 6 defensive backs over 80 solos (three with 89)
• 2007 #12 would have finished 21^st
• 2007 #36 would have finished 41^st

2005

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts (all 190+, three with 200+)
• 9 defensive backs over 80 solos (three over 90)
• 2007 #12 would have finished 19^th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 46^th

2004

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts (three with 200+)
• 4 defensive backs over 80 solos
• 2007 #12 would have finished 18^th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 49^th

2003

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts
• 5 defensive backs over 80 solos
• 2007 #12 would have finished T19th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 42^nd

Bottom line:

2007 was the least productive season in the last five years for defensive backs. This season’s #1 overall DB would have finished no better than 6^th in any of the previous five seasons. The overall tackle stats for defensive backs, the bread and butter of most IDP systems, were significantly down. The nominal worst DB1 starter in 2007 would barely have been a mid DB2 at any point over the past five seasons. And the “worst starter” in a start 3 DB league was easily the worst in five years.

Obviously, there are injury issues that skew this data some. But, while I expect to be in the minority come July, I think those that risk a pick on a potential “stud” safety next summer will find themselves rewarded handsomely. Considering that you’ll probably be able to get a player from that group at least one round later than in prior seasons, there’s even better value to be had.

Potential pitfalls:

The rise of the 3-4, Tampa-2 and hybrid nickel schemes could be depressing DB values, particularly the benchmark strong safeties. The influx of stud young linebacker talent may also be depressing safety values overall. Or it could simply be that 2005-2006 were DB years, not unlike the recent rise of the TE on the offensive side.

I think there are valid arguments against any of those potential issues, however, and, pending a glut of scheme/draft/free agency flies in the ointment, am planning on taking advantage of the negative DB bias created by the DB Massacre of 2007. The key, as always and with every position, will be to pick the right guys to rebound or break out.

Happy hunting.

While Cowboys fans may not be happy about the Giants surprising win this weekend in Big D, Ravens fans may have gotten exactly what they were hoping for. Jason Garrett, the Cowboys OC and this year’s hottest head coaching candidate, is heading to Baltimore for a second interview. Garrett, who is also considering a 2nd interview in Atlanta, appears to be the odds on favorite, particularly now that Marty Schottenheimer has officially closed the door on interviewing.

Thus far, the Ravens have interviewed five candidates:

• Jim Caldwell, Assistant Head Coach/WR Coach (Indianapolis)
• John Harbaugh, Secondary Coach (Philadelphia)
• Rex Ryan, Defensive Coordinator (Baltimore)
• Brian Schottenheimer, Offensive Coordinator (New York Jets)
• Tony Sparano, Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line Coach (Dallas)

The Cowboys could be the fly in the ointment here, particularly if Jerry Jones wants to keep Garrett badly enough. Recall, Garrett was hired by Jones BEFORE Wade Phillips, and was given the ethereal title of “either offensive coordinator OR head coach.” If Jones thinks Garrett is the real deal, he may have to do something drastic in order to keep him in the fold.

On our free IDP-centric discussion board over the next few weeks, we’ll be creating a number of simple metrics to squeeze as much information out of the 2007 season as possible. In Part 1, we’ll rank this season’s linebackers by the percentage of their team’s solo tackles for which they were responsible. This measure will give us an idea of how often a given linebacker was around the ball and should confirm some of our tightly held beliefs about how certain schemes affect the production of the players within them.

You can find the full spreadsheet and accompanying discussion, which includes 75 of the league’s most active linebackers, in this thread in our IDP Forum. The discussion in the forum thread includes some limitations in the metric and some tweaks to the numbers of a few players (eg. Jon Beason and David Harris) to make their entries more meaningful.

Here are the top ten linebackers by this metric:

1. Zach Thomas — 15.74% (5 games)

2. Patrick Willis — 15.64%

3. David Harris — 15.02% (9 games as starter)

4. Jon Beason — 12.72%

5. Nick Barnett — 12.67%

6. D.J. Williams — 12.63%

7. Mike Peterson — 12.02%

8. London Fletcher — 11.95%

9. Kirk Morrison — 11.64%

10. DeMeco Ryans — 11.24%

The top ten is a Who’s Who of stud 4-3 MLB and 3-4 ILB talent. It’s worth noting that two of the top three players on this list are 3-4 ILB. We’ve said it before and will continue to drive the point home. There’s no reason a 3-4 ILB cannot be productive with a favorable skill set, scheme and surrounding cast. It should also come as little surprise to those who follow defensive schemes closely that the two teams who play schemes most resembling that of noted defensive mind Jim Bates, who prioritizes funneling plays to a MLB protected by big DTs, both placed their MLB in the top ten (DEN and GB).

Other findings of note:

Houston’s young stud MLB DeMeco Ryans would have finished 4th on this list, with a percentage of 13.47 of his team’s total solo tackles, had he continued on the pace he set before suffering a number of lower leg injuries over the last month of the season.

After controlling for the games in which each played MLB only, Mike Peterson appears to be significantly more active than Daryl Smith in Jacksonville. Peterson ranks 7th with a percentage of 12.02%, while Smith ranks 61st with a percentage of only 7.34%. Despite the small sample size, that strongly suggests that Peterson is around the ball much more than Smith at MLB. Similar stat lines occurred in 2006. It’s difficult not to conclude that Smith will never be a major IDP factor as a MLB in Jacksonville. Buyer beware if Smith starts there in future seasons.

Four Tampa-2 WLBs placed in the top 30 by this metric. Ernie Sims (15), Freddie Keiaho (16) and Lance Briggs (22) all placed higher on a per game basis than their MLB counterparts. That supports our long held belief that T2 WLB get plenty of extra opportunity and, while a T2 MLB still has value, he’ll have to get significantly more raw opportunity to keep pace with his more traditional 4-3 MLB peers.

The highest ranking linebacker that does not play every down is Matt Wilhelm (32). Wilhelm’s ranking is interesting for two reasons. First, it drives home the point that a player who doesn’t participate in nickel and dime packages (and Wilhelm does play in some sub-packages) definitely loses value to the rest of the pack. Second, it’s more data that argues how valuable the weak side inside linebacker in a 1-gap 3-4 scheme is in IDP circles. Wilhelm, who played in fewer sub-packages than his ILB counterpart Stephen Cooper, STILL ranked higher than Cooper in this metric. Since Cooper has proven himself a solid NFL talent, that’s an eye-opening stat.

There are plenty of other interesting considerations suggested by the data set. Take a look and drop by our IDP Forum for the best offseason discussion in the industry.

Jerry Angelo was the architect of a Bears team that, just a season ago, went to the Super Bowl. Far be it for me to suggest Angelo doesn’t know how to do his job (I’ll leave that to the Bears beat writers); but Bears fans had to cringe when they read what Angelo had to say about the QB situation in the Chicago Tribune:

Dan Pompei: Would you be comfortable with the same three quarterbacks in camp next season?

Jerry Angelo: Yes. These three quarterbacks—I said this going into the season and I still say it—they give us the best situation at the position we’ve had since I’ve been here. All three of these quarterbacks have proven you can win with them. What we haven’t done is gotten it 100 percent stabilized in terms of who is the guy. We’d like to see all three back and determine from there who that guy is.

Dan Pompei: You have invested three years of development in Kyle Orton. We’ve seen many quarterbacks like him—David Garrard and Tony Romo for instance—emerge after similar beginnings. Is there a feeling that you owe it to the organization to give him a chance to start?

Jerry Angelo: It’s a good point. There have been a good number of players who have been picked on the second day of the draft, who, given time, have produced and become winning starters. I felt like the last two games of the season Kyle performed very well for us. Obviously Rex [Grossman] is still involved, but he’s an unrestricted free agent, and Brian [Griese]. But we certainly feel very good about Kyle.

OK, either Angelo is simply posturing JUST IN CASE the Bears have no luck securing help at the QB position, OR Bears fans are in for another LONG season in 2008. Assuming the Bears have better luck next year on the defensive side of the ball (there were a ton of injuries), and presuming they can add help at the RB position (not very hard if you draft well), the most glaring problem area remains at quarterback.

Rex Grossman is an unrestricted free agent, and it would be surprising to see Rex return to Chicago. I’m sure Grossman thinks he could benefit from a change of scenery and Chicago fans won’t miss him. Is there a veteran QB out there who makes sense? I know Bears fans were hoping Donovan McNabb would become available but that’s no longer in the cards. Chad Pennington also appears set to return to New York. At the very least, you have to think Angelo will draft a higher upside QB in April, with the idea that Orton or Griese can hold down the fort for a season.

Interesting comments in the Denver Post from Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan regarding the future of RB Selvin Young:

Selvin Young is ideal for 10 to 15 carries a game, but Shanahan said he’s not a 20-to-25 carry back.

“No, definitely not,” Shanahan said. “Any time a guy’s been hurt as many times as he did, you know that there’s no possible way he can carry the ball 20, 25 times a game. The body just won’t hold up. He went down too many times this year. But you are looking at a guy that you know has big-play potential.”

Not really a surprise, but given the struggles of Travis Henry this season, it seems a foregone conclusion that Denver will ONCE AGAIN be looking for someone new to carry the load at the RB position. It was Young, not Henry, who led the Broncos in rushing this season, marking the FIFTH CONSECUTIVE season that someone different topped Denver’s RB ledger:

It’s hard not to notice the diminishing returns the Broncos have gotten from their lead rusher since Clinton Portis’ trade. This year Travis Henry was supposed to erase the need for a committee approach, but nagging injuries and legal concerns regarding a possible failed drug test curtailed a strong start to the season.

Will Henry be back and, if so, provide the 1,400+ yards we forecast for him in 2007? According to the Post article, only if he’s willing to take a significant pay cut. With so many mouths to feed, and a history of financial problems, somehow I wonder if Henry will be willing to do that.

The Ol’ Gunslinger — Brett Favre — wants to return for an 18th season…

“For the first time in three years, I haven’t thought this could be my last game,” Favre told the Biloxi Sun-Herald newspaper. “I would like to continue longer.”

My how quickly things can change in the NFL. A year ago at this time, most people assumed Brett Favre would either retire or limp back for one more season in order to break Dan Marino’s all-time records before exiting unceremoniously out the door. Now, after an MVP-like season that saw the Packers win 13 games (and counting), Favre seems ready to not only return in 2008, but to make another run at contention.

Want to know how things will get interesting? Let’s see if the Packers can win the Super Bowl this year. IF they were to win the SB, I could see Favre calling it a career; but otherwise, fantasy owners and NFL fans can expect him back slinging passes around with aplomb in 2008.

I’ve always maintained that Pete Carroll would return to the NFL ranks eventually; but that it would take complete control over a franchise and a legitimate chance to win consistently. I also thought it would probably come on the West Coast; where Carroll has enjoyed so much success as the coach at USC.

A lot of my fellow Footballguys have questioned my assertion, wondering a) why Carroll would ever want to leave the confines of USC where he can contend for major bowls every year and make as much as most NFL coaches, and b) why an NFL team would be willing to throw Carroll all the $$$ in the world given the recent lack of success college coaches have brought to bear.

Today comes news that Carroll is genuinely interested in the Atlanta Falcons job.

USC coach Pete Carroll is interested in the Atlanta Falcons’ head coach opening and is expected to speak with Atlanta owner Arthur Blank via phone Wednesday, sources at the American Football Coaches Convention in Anaheim told ESPN’s Joe Schad.

Blank is expected to offer full control of personnel decisions to Carroll and the sources said that is what intrigues Carroll most. Carroll is currently on vacation in Hawaii.

The Falcons’ interest in talking to Carroll about their opening was first reported Tuesday night by ESPN.com’s Len Pasquarelli.

While I am on record against college coaches making the transition to the NFL; Coach Carroll is an exception. He is a 2-time NFL head coach and is, for all intents and purposes, an “NFL guy.” Now that doesn’t mean his success at USC will translate into the NFL; particularly for a franchise in such dire shape as the Falcons. BUT…if there were a college coach I would be willing to take a chance on, it’s him.

Joe Gibbs announced his retirement today; citing a desire to spend more time with his family. While the move is certainly understandable given Gibbs’ age, the stresses of coaching an NFL team, and the turmoil surrounding the Redskins’ season (most notably the death of Sean Taylor)…the move surprised many because the Skins are coming off a playoff season and owner Daniel Snyder allegedly had a 2-year extension on the table.

Now that the decision is final, the questions turn toward the future:

• Who will replace Gibbs at the helm?
• If DC Gregg Williams gets the job, will OC Al Saunders stick around?
• Likewise, if Saunders lands the top job, will Williams look for work elsewhere?

Those questions will be answered in due time, but today was a day for reflection. Specifically, was Joe Gibbs’ second tenure with the Redskins a success?  That’s a difficult question to answer, and contributors to our message board weighed in on all sides of the argument:

• 57.8% said “Yes”
• 42.2% said “No”

Redman  says it was clearly a success, but not one that necessarily showed up in the win column:

It’s a success that unfortunately is not fully reflected in the W/L column.

In 2003 this was a team that was reeling from an embarrassing coaching failure in Spurrier, that had frighteningly little talent on the roster, an owner with the reputation (at that time deserving) of meddling and not even knowing enough about football to know what he didn’t know, and no plan for the future. The morale was low and the culture of the team was defeatist. There was not a lot of team toughness.

Joe changed all of that. This roster is stocked with talent, and I’m not talking about fantasy football talent but real NFL talent that includes role players, special teams guys, etc.

Koya considers his tenure a mild success:

Successful? Yes. Mildly.

Mostly because when Gibbs stepped in, the Franchise was in disarray and looked as if it may fall of the NFL cliff of proud, winning franchises for a while. He righted the ship, brought them back to respectability and made the playoffs twice in four years.

Not an astounding success, but more success than failure considering where the franchise is today as compared with 4 years ago.

I disagreed because I think ultimately Joe Gibbs, Daniel Snyder and the Redskins players wouldn’t deem their accomplishments over the last 4 years as having met their own expectations:

I’m sorry, but a sub-.500 record in four seasons with one playoff win was NOT what Redskins fans, Daniel Snyder, Joe Gibbs and football pundits wanted to see. While it wasn’t an outright failure, bringing back the franchise’s hero out of retirement and having him shuffle off with zero division titles wasn’t “successful” IMHO. Just look at it from the perspective of his division:

In the four seasons:

• Philadelphia (37-27: 0.578), 2 Playoff Appearances, 2 Division Titles, 1 Super Bowl Appearance
• New York (35-29: 0.547), 3 Playoff Appearances, 0 Division Titles, 0 Super Bowl Appearances but still alive in ‘07
• Dallas (37-27: 0.578), 2 Playoff Appearances, 1 Division Title, 0 Super Bowl Appearances but 1 seed in ‘07
• Washington (30-34: 0.469), 2 Playoff Appearances, 0 Division Titles, 0 Super Bowl Appearances

What do you think? Was Joe Gibbs (inarguably one of the best coaches in NFL history) successful in his return? And does the Redskins performance over the next few years play a role in how we ultimately view Gibbs last four seasons?

Bill Parcells isn’t wasting much time making moves in Miami:

• Cam Cameron was fired, becoming the 9th NFL head coach since 1990 to be fired after one season
• Hired Jeff Ireland away from the Cowboys to be the new GM
• Re-signed Ricky Williams for the 2008 season

While these moves were noteworthy, they set the table for the larger tasks at hand:

1. Hire a new head coach (my bet is on Cowboys running coordinator Tony Sparano)
2. Build a new assistant coaching staff
3. Assess the current roster from top to bottom
4. Figure out their draft board and plan for scenarios to possibly trade the 1st overall pick