OK, we still have a week left in the season, but as someone that covers the NFL coaching carousel for the site each year, it’s never too early to start handicapping the field. For starters, this has the makings of a relatively benign NFL offseason. Hirings are cyclical and after a robust few offseasons, it appears that a majority of coaches will be back in 2008 for various and sundry reasons. As you’ll see in our breakdown, I would be surprised if we had more than five head coaching chances in 2008, and that includes Atlanta which is already in the works. With only a week left, things could change for the better or worse for a few coaches on the bubble, but for now, I’m not expecting a bloodbath.

THE BEDROCK

…these guys are all but certain to return in 2008

• Bill Belichick, New England — Does this really need an explanation?
• Tony Dungy, Indianapolis — Won more games in 2008 than in 2007 Super Bowl year; he’s the Colts coach for as long as he wants
• Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville — 11+ wins, building a consistent program, made the right call at QB
• Wade Phillips, Dallas — Took the Cowboys to the top of the NFC in his first year
• Mike McCarthy, Green Bay — Took the Packers to the 2 seed in a year when most thought it was a mistake for Brett Favre to return
• Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh – Stepped into enormous shoes and proceeded to lead the Steelers back to the top of their division
• Mike Holmgren, Seattle — Another division title; despite Shaun Alexander’s struggles
• Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay — Another division title; solid resurgence after a rough 2006
• Norv Turner, San Diego — Rocky start but rounded the team into form, winning the division year again
• Jeff Fisher, Tennessee – Had the Titans in contention despite a subpar 2nd season from Vince Young

SAFE DESPITE A SUBPAR 2007

…these guys appear safe despite 2007 seasons that didn’t turn out the way they hoped

• Brad Childress, Minnesota – Childress could lead the Vikings to the playoffs in which case he probably doesn’t belong in this group; but either way he should have done enough to earn another season in Minnesota. Look for the Vikes to bring in a proven veteran QB to “challenge” Tarvaris Jackson next year
• Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona – An up-and-down year that leaves plenty of questions; but Whisenhunt did enough in his first season to keep Cardinals fans optimistic. Another season honing/rebuilding the offensive line and (hopefully) better health at QB/WR and on defense will allow the Cards to challenge for the playoffs in 2008
• Gary Kubiak, Houston — Much like the Cardinals, Houston didn’t make the leap to playoff contender this year despite being heralded as a sleeper; but Kubiak’s offensive system is taking shape. He got solid production out of two QBs, and the running game was productive with a revolving cast of mediocre backs.
• Dick Jauron, Buffalo – Jauron had the Bills playing tough all year, and kept the team competitive despite moving to an all-rookie backfield. Ownership reportedly loves him and will give him at least another season or two to see if he can turn the Bills into a contender.
• Sean Payton, New Orleans — Last year’s coach of the year got off to a rough start, but the Saints pulled themselves back to respectability and Payton has shown enough to be on rock solid footing heading into 2008.
• Lovie Smith, Chicago — An appearance in last year’s Super Bowl should give Smith doubters plenty of pause. The team needs to find stability at QB; and even some minor luck when it comes to the injury bug on defense would’ve had this team contending.

GUYS WHO CAN NAME THEIR OWN TERMS

…these three coaches will be back at the helm IF they want to

• Joe Gibbs, Washington – Gibbs has the Redskins on the brink of a playoff berth despite injuries to his QB, the death of Sean Taylor, and offensive line problems. The team reportedly offered him a multi-year extension but it wouldn’t shock many to see Gibbs retire again to concentrate on his racing team. We should know whether he’s staying or going shortly after the Redskins season concludes.
• Andy Reid, Philadelphia — Andy Reid will return to the Eagles if he wants to, it’s as simple as that. Despite a lot of noise in the media and among Philly fans, owner Jeffrey Lurie remains firmly in Reid’s camp. Recent comments by Reid indicate he will be back, but let’s leave the door open until he formally closes it.
• Mike Shanahan, Denver – Shanahan seems to have a job in Denver for life, but at some point you have to wonder if he needs/wants to change jobs to find a new challenge. It’s been a long time since Denver was a playoff factor; and this year’s losing season might cause Shanny to at least consider another opportunity. Ultimately though we expect him back in Denver in 2008.

PHOENIXES RISING FROM THE ASHES

…these coaches seemed like goners but will now be very hard to fire

• Tom Coughlin, New York Giants — Coughlin was considered by most to be a dead man walking. New GM, lame duck status, the perception of poor team morale…yet Coughlin led the Giants to a 10+ win season, a 3rd consecutive playoff berth, and seems likely to get a multi-year extension versus a pink slip.
• Romeo Crennel, Cleveland — This preseason Cleveland seemed destined for yet another atrocious year; likely costing Crennel and GM Phil Savage their jobs. But a winning season, the solidification of the offensive line, the emergence of a potent offense and young building blocks make Crennel’s position far healthier than it appeared in August.

THE MISSOURI (SHOW ME STATE) CREW

…we expect these coaches to return in 2008 but they have A LOT to prove next season

• Brian Billick, Baltimore – Billick and management claim he’ll be back in 2008; so we have no reason to think otherwise for now. But the loss to Miami and yet another season of offensive ineptitude raise serious questions about whether Billick is the right man for this job. [Update (12/31): Looks like Billick counted his chickens before they were hatched, he was fired today.]
• Herm Edwards, Kansas City — Herm was hand-picked to replace Dick Vermeil yet two seasons into his tenure and things look a lot like they did in New York. He’s consistent and accountable, players seem to like playing for him, but the Xs and Os and a very conservative offense limit his team’s success. It would be foolish to replace him for the sake of it, but he needs to get the Chiefs on a winning track in 2008 or else.
• Lane Kiffin, Oakland — Kiffin is the youngest head coach in the league and took a job with less-than-ideal circumstances. He doesn’t have to make the playoffs next year, but he does have to show an ability to maximize the team’s talent, as well as bringing JaMarcus Russell along relatively quickly. Al Davis isn’t a patient man and at his age, he certainly isn’t above firing Kiffin two years into his tenure.
• Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati — The Bengals defense continues to struggle; and that’s Marvin Lewis’ wheelhouse. Yet, the Bengals were in sorry shape before Lewis came aboard and it seems unlikely ownership would be ready to condemn him after one subpar season. If he can’t get the Bengals back to respectability next year; all bets are off.
• Eric Mangini, New York Jets – What a difference a year makes. Hailed as “Mangenius” in his 1st season, the Jets were among this season’s worst teams; with major questions in nearly every facet of the game. There’s no doubt Mangini returns in 2008; but he can’t afford another losing season.
• Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions — Marinelli’s Lions showed a lot of improvement this year, and despite a 2nd half swoon were legitimate playoff contenders for most of the season. He also benefits from the fact that Matt Millen likely doesn’t have another hire left; so as Marinelli goes, so too does Millen. The team needs to address major issues on both sides of the ball in 2008 though, or else we could see a new GM in 2009 and a new head coach with him.

HEADS YOU’RE FIRED, TAILS YOU’RE A LAME DUCK IN 2008

…although these coaches could also return for another season, we expect them to get the ax

• John Fox, Carolina – Ownership could look at the injury to Jake Delhomme and the revolving door at QB since as a reason to bring Fox back. But his once bright star has faded and, arguably, the Panthers team underachieved more than any other in the NFC. The continued lack of offensive punch, and the uninspired play by the defense suggests ownership would be justified in turning the keys over to another driver. That said, the Panthers may gamble on Bill Cowher in 2009; thus keeping Fox around for another go around in 2008. [Update (12/27): Adam Schefter is reporting that the Panthers intend to bring back John Fox for the 2008 season]
• Scott Linehan, St. Louis – The Rams have won a few games in the 2nd half; which might be enough to save Linehan. But the team regressed in a lot of ways this year and it can’t all be blamed on the injury to Steven Jackson. Whether Linehan remains likely comes down to who Rams ownership thinks is available as his replacement.

DEARLY DEPARTED

…it would be quite surprising to see these coaches back at the helm in 2008

• Cam Cameron, Miami – A 1-win season is bad enough to be one and done; but now that Bill Parcells has been brought in to run the organization, you can be sure he’ll want one of “his” guys to coach the franchise.
• Mike Nolan, San Francisco — The 49ers have gotten worse in a season when most expected them to finally return to playoff form. This is as much an condemnation of the personnel department as the coach; but based on ownerships recent comments; they are looking at wholesale changes next year which likely includes trying to bring in a coach/GM with more gravitas.
• Emmitt Thomas, Atlanta – No disrespect to Thomas, but his status as “interim” coach for the final 3 games of this season is exactly that; interim. The Falcons will bring in a new head coach (and probably a new GM) next year in hopes of erasing one of the bleakest seasons in NFL history.

Agree/Disagree? Love to hear your thoughts.