Brian Billick told the world he was coming back in 2008 shortly after losing his 7th consecutive game:

“I’m going to be back,” Billick said at his news conference Monday, according to The Baltimore Sun.

Unfortunately, there were two problems with his prognostication:

1. His team proceeded to lose to the 0-13 Dolphins the following Sunday
2. The Ravens owner, Steve Bisciotti, never publicly backed him up

OOPS.

Today the Ravens fired Brian Billick despite the widely held expectation he would return for another season. Billick had signed a 4-year extension prior to the 2007 season; but that wasn’t enough to obscure the calamitous downfall of a 5-win season.

When asked about the move, Bisciotti said:

“I just changed my mind, I can’t explain it to you.”

…and there you go.

You can be sure of a few things: 

1. Billick, just 53 years old, will absolutely be a head coach in the NFL again (if he wants to). Consider the list of re-treads that get hired for jobs; and then compare their resumes to that of a 53-year old, Super Bowl winning head coach.
2. The Ravens vacancy will be among the most coveted this offseason:
   1. 13 wins in 2006
   2. Myriad injuries in 2007
   3. A young owner willing to spend money
   4. A loyal fan base
   5. A proven, top-tier general manager
3. Billick is unlikely to accept a job as an offensive coordinator; if he doesn’t find any suitable offers for a head coaching job in 2008, expect him to choose broadcasting as an alternative

Randy Moss just completed an insane 23-TD season; breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season mark in the process. As it stands, Moss also broke Rice’s record for most fantasy points by a WR in a season:

As you can see, Rice’s 22-TD season wasn’t even the record holder (it ranked 8th prior to Moss’ 2007 campaign); but rather it was Rice’s 1995 season (122 catches for 1,849 yards and 15 TDs) that was the former standard bearer. Moss’ 2007 numbers give him a 2.9 point edge using standard fantasy scoring.

While this is AMONG the best receiving seasons in football history, it’s really not the best FANTASY season. Remember, the year Rice caught 22 TD receptions, he only played 12 games due to the strike. Imagine what his numbers might have looked like over a full 16-game season.

Here is a list of the best fantasy seasons on a POINTS PER GAME basis (minimum: 12 games played)

Three things to chew on from this list:

1. Jerry Rice’s 22-TD season season is now back in its rightful place as the best ever
2. Lance Alworth’s brilliance comes to the forefront (he has three of the top 7 seasons all time in FPPG)
3. Moss’ 2007 season stands 3rd in PPG; and is indeed AMONG the best ever

Well, it got interesting for a bit but when the dust settled on tonight’s game, the New England Patriots finished off the first ever perfect season in the modern (16-game era).

• The Patriots got their perfect record
• The Patriots broke the single season scoring record
• Tom Brady got the single-season TD record (he ended with 50 TDs)
• Randy Moss got his single-season TD reception record (an astounding 23 TDs)

A lot of credit has to go to the New York Giants who played their starters the entire game and had a 12-point lead in the 2nd half; all despite having nothing to gain from a victory. But, even more credit goes to the Patriots who, facing their largest 2nd half deficit of the season, rattled off 22 unanswered points on route to a 38-35 victory.

Before everyone starts debating whether or not the Patriots are the best team ever, let’s let them win the Super Bowl. At this point, anything short of a Super Bowl would have to be considered a monumental disappointment for all concerned. Call the Pats the best REGULAR SEASON team ever; but recognize that neither they nor their fans really care about that distinction if it doesn’t come with a 4th ring a month from now.

Prior to the start of the 2006 season, Jamal Lewis returned to the Baltimore Ravens on a one-year deal. Despite rushing for 2,000 yards a few seasons before, Lewis had seen relatively no interest in free agency and returned, hat in hand, to the team that wouldn’t commit to him. Of course, his injuries, lack of conditioning and jail term all played a role. Lewis made a bet that his one-year deal would lead to free agent riches; but then he posted the following numbers:

• 314 carries
• 1,132 yards
• 3.6 yards per rush
• 9 rushing TDs
• 18 receptions
• 115 receiving yards

Those numbers weren’t horrible, but they were hardly the stuff of an elite franchise runner and, as  a result, Lewis entered last offseason in a similar position. Many teams wondered if his best days were behind him. He found a home in division rival Cleveland, thanks to GM Phil Savage (who scouted Lewis while a personnel executive in Baltimore); but again only for a 1-year deal.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A SEASON MAKES

The Browns are on the verge of a potential playoff berth and Jamal Lewis has enjoyed a resurgent season:

• 14 games
• 272 carries
• 1,176 yards
• 4.3 yards per rush
• 9 TDs
• 29 receptions
• 247 yards receiving
• 2 receiving TDs

Lewis posted his best yardage, yards per rush, TDs and receiving numbers since his magical 2,000-yard season in 2003. As a result? He will either sign a long-term deal to stay in Cleveland OR find himself a new home with a big upfront guarantee.  Regardless of what you think of Lewis as a person or player, you have to give him credit for having enough confidence in his own abilities to play for a one-year deal in consecutive years. Looks like the 2nd time was the charm.

Lots of chatter around the football world today about Bill Parcells willingness to trade the Dolphins 1st overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft:

 ”Any team that has won one game, or hopefully two games this year, needs a volume of players,” Parcells said. “But getting someone to be interested in that No. 1 pick is not as simple as just saying, ‘OK, we’re going to trade the pick.’“First, you need to have someone who wants it … I would consider anything.”

As is often the case with these kinds of stories, Parcells carefully crafted comments have been misconstrued by interested parties. A lot of Dolphins fans (including many on our message boards) have interpreted this to mean Parcells IS GOING TO trade the 1st pick. Yet, that’s not at all what he’s saying here.

ANY negotiator worth his weight is going to leave as many options open for as long as he can. Less than 12 hours into the job of running football operations for a 1-14 team, it would’ve been absolutely laughable had Parcells NOT kept the door open for trading the pick. If he has any hope of recouping real value for the pick, he has to convince some other GM that it’s not going to come cheaply.

Whether the Dolphins will trade the pick or not, neither Bill Parcells, Wayne Huizenga or anyone else in the world has come close to making that decision yet. Let’s hear Bill come out and say this at the end of March; THEN it will be a newsworthy story.

Patrick Crayton signed a 4-year, $14mm contract extension that includes $6mm in guarantees. It’s curious timing for someone who would’ve been a free agent in a matter of a few months; but was likely a smart move for both sides. The Cowboys keep Crayton from the open market, where a number of suitors (Bill Parcells anyone?) would’ve looked hard at him as a full-time starter; and in turn Crayton gets a sizable contract despite the very real possibility of being the Cowboys WR3 next season.

OK, we still have a week left in the season, but as someone that covers the NFL coaching carousel for the site each year, it’s never too early to start handicapping the field. For starters, this has the makings of a relatively benign NFL offseason. Hirings are cyclical and after a robust few offseasons, it appears that a majority of coaches will be back in 2008 for various and sundry reasons. As you’ll see in our breakdown, I would be surprised if we had more than five head coaching chances in 2008, and that includes Atlanta which is already in the works. With only a week left, things could change for the better or worse for a few coaches on the bubble, but for now, I’m not expecting a bloodbath.

THE BEDROCK

…these guys are all but certain to return in 2008

• Bill Belichick, New England — Does this really need an explanation?
• Tony Dungy, Indianapolis — Won more games in 2008 than in 2007 Super Bowl year; he’s the Colts coach for as long as he wants
• Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville — 11+ wins, building a consistent program, made the right call at QB
• Wade Phillips, Dallas — Took the Cowboys to the top of the NFC in his first year
• Mike McCarthy, Green Bay — Took the Packers to the 2 seed in a year when most thought it was a mistake for Brett Favre to return
• Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh – Stepped into enormous shoes and proceeded to lead the Steelers back to the top of their division
• Mike Holmgren, Seattle — Another division title; despite Shaun Alexander’s struggles
• Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay — Another division title; solid resurgence after a rough 2006
• Norv Turner, San Diego — Rocky start but rounded the team into form, winning the division year again
• Jeff Fisher, Tennessee – Had the Titans in contention despite a subpar 2nd season from Vince Young

SAFE DESPITE A SUBPAR 2007

…these guys appear safe despite 2007 seasons that didn’t turn out the way they hoped

• Brad Childress, Minnesota – Childress could lead the Vikings to the playoffs in which case he probably doesn’t belong in this group; but either way he should have done enough to earn another season in Minnesota. Look for the Vikes to bring in a proven veteran QB to “challenge” Tarvaris Jackson next year
• Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona – An up-and-down year that leaves plenty of questions; but Whisenhunt did enough in his first season to keep Cardinals fans optimistic. Another season honing/rebuilding the offensive line and (hopefully) better health at QB/WR and on defense will allow the Cards to challenge for the playoffs in 2008
• Gary Kubiak, Houston — Much like the Cardinals, Houston didn’t make the leap to playoff contender this year despite being heralded as a sleeper; but Kubiak’s offensive system is taking shape. He got solid production out of two QBs, and the running game was productive with a revolving cast of mediocre backs.
• Dick Jauron, Buffalo – Jauron had the Bills playing tough all year, and kept the team competitive despite moving to an all-rookie backfield. Ownership reportedly loves him and will give him at least another season or two to see if he can turn the Bills into a contender.
• Sean Payton, New Orleans — Last year’s coach of the year got off to a rough start, but the Saints pulled themselves back to respectability and Payton has shown enough to be on rock solid footing heading into 2008.
• Lovie Smith, Chicago — An appearance in last year’s Super Bowl should give Smith doubters plenty of pause. The team needs to find stability at QB; and even some minor luck when it comes to the injury bug on defense would’ve had this team contending.

GUYS WHO CAN NAME THEIR OWN TERMS

…these three coaches will be back at the helm IF they want to

• Joe Gibbs, Washington – Gibbs has the Redskins on the brink of a playoff berth despite injuries to his QB, the death of Sean Taylor, and offensive line problems. The team reportedly offered him a multi-year extension but it wouldn’t shock many to see Gibbs retire again to concentrate on his racing team. We should know whether he’s staying or going shortly after the Redskins season concludes.
• Andy Reid, Philadelphia — Andy Reid will return to the Eagles if he wants to, it’s as simple as that. Despite a lot of noise in the media and among Philly fans, owner Jeffrey Lurie remains firmly in Reid’s camp. Recent comments by Reid indicate he will be back, but let’s leave the door open until he formally closes it.
• Mike Shanahan, Denver – Shanahan seems to have a job in Denver for life, but at some point you have to wonder if he needs/wants to change jobs to find a new challenge. It’s been a long time since Denver was a playoff factor; and this year’s losing season might cause Shanny to at least consider another opportunity. Ultimately though we expect him back in Denver in 2008.

PHOENIXES RISING FROM THE ASHES

…these coaches seemed like goners but will now be very hard to fire

• Tom Coughlin, New York Giants — Coughlin was considered by most to be a dead man walking. New GM, lame duck status, the perception of poor team morale…yet Coughlin led the Giants to a 10+ win season, a 3rd consecutive playoff berth, and seems likely to get a multi-year extension versus a pink slip.
• Romeo Crennel, Cleveland — This preseason Cleveland seemed destined for yet another atrocious year; likely costing Crennel and GM Phil Savage their jobs. But a winning season, the solidification of the offensive line, the emergence of a potent offense and young building blocks make Crennel’s position far healthier than it appeared in August.

THE MISSOURI (SHOW ME STATE) CREW

…we expect these coaches to return in 2008 but they have A LOT to prove next season

• Brian Billick, Baltimore – Billick and management claim he’ll be back in 2008; so we have no reason to think otherwise for now. But the loss to Miami and yet another season of offensive ineptitude raise serious questions about whether Billick is the right man for this job. [Update (12/31): Looks like Billick counted his chickens before they were hatched, he was fired today.]
• Herm Edwards, Kansas City — Herm was hand-picked to replace Dick Vermeil yet two seasons into his tenure and things look a lot like they did in New York. He’s consistent and accountable, players seem to like playing for him, but the Xs and Os and a very conservative offense limit his team’s success. It would be foolish to replace him for the sake of it, but he needs to get the Chiefs on a winning track in 2008 or else.
• Lane Kiffin, Oakland — Kiffin is the youngest head coach in the league and took a job with less-than-ideal circumstances. He doesn’t have to make the playoffs next year, but he does have to show an ability to maximize the team’s talent, as well as bringing JaMarcus Russell along relatively quickly. Al Davis isn’t a patient man and at his age, he certainly isn’t above firing Kiffin two years into his tenure.
• Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati — The Bengals defense continues to struggle; and that’s Marvin Lewis’ wheelhouse. Yet, the Bengals were in sorry shape before Lewis came aboard and it seems unlikely ownership would be ready to condemn him after one subpar season. If he can’t get the Bengals back to respectability next year; all bets are off.
• Eric Mangini, New York Jets – What a difference a year makes. Hailed as “Mangenius” in his 1st season, the Jets were among this season’s worst teams; with major questions in nearly every facet of the game. There’s no doubt Mangini returns in 2008; but he can’t afford another losing season.
• Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions — Marinelli’s Lions showed a lot of improvement this year, and despite a 2nd half swoon were legitimate playoff contenders for most of the season. He also benefits from the fact that Matt Millen likely doesn’t have another hire left; so as Marinelli goes, so too does Millen. The team needs to address major issues on both sides of the ball in 2008 though, or else we could see a new GM in 2009 and a new head coach with him.

HEADS YOU’RE FIRED, TAILS YOU’RE A LAME DUCK IN 2008

…although these coaches could also return for another season, we expect them to get the ax

• John Fox, Carolina – Ownership could look at the injury to Jake Delhomme and the revolving door at QB since as a reason to bring Fox back. But his once bright star has faded and, arguably, the Panthers team underachieved more than any other in the NFC. The continued lack of offensive punch, and the uninspired play by the defense suggests ownership would be justified in turning the keys over to another driver. That said, the Panthers may gamble on Bill Cowher in 2009; thus keeping Fox around for another go around in 2008. [Update (12/27): Adam Schefter is reporting that the Panthers intend to bring back John Fox for the 2008 season]
• Scott Linehan, St. Louis – The Rams have won a few games in the 2nd half; which might be enough to save Linehan. But the team regressed in a lot of ways this year and it can’t all be blamed on the injury to Steven Jackson. Whether Linehan remains likely comes down to who Rams ownership thinks is available as his replacement.

DEARLY DEPARTED

…it would be quite surprising to see these coaches back at the helm in 2008

• Cam Cameron, Miami – A 1-win season is bad enough to be one and done; but now that Bill Parcells has been brought in to run the organization, you can be sure he’ll want one of “his” guys to coach the franchise.
• Mike Nolan, San Francisco — The 49ers have gotten worse in a season when most expected them to finally return to playoff form. This is as much an condemnation of the personnel department as the coach; but based on ownerships recent comments; they are looking at wholesale changes next year which likely includes trying to bring in a coach/GM with more gravitas.
• Emmitt Thomas, Atlanta – No disrespect to Thomas, but his status as “interim” coach for the final 3 games of this season is exactly that; interim. The Falcons will bring in a new head coach (and probably a new GM) next year in hopes of erasing one of the bleakest seasons in NFL history.

Agree/Disagree? Love to hear your thoughts.

Credit to our forum member pizzatyme for throwing out this little nugget today:

The Colts became the fourth team to win more games in a season following their Super Bowl victory. The other three all repeated as Super Bowl Champs:

• 1974 & 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers
• 1988 & 1989 San Francisco 49ers
• 1997 & 1998 Denver Broncos

Now for as interesting a statistical nugget as that may be, credit to forum member redman who quickly threw out the obvious monkey wrench (aka the Patriots):

In each of the three other instances, the repeating SB champ had either the best record in their conference, or the best in the league. The Colts obviously don’t this year, which is no surprise given how much of an outlier the Pats’ season has been anyway.

Has an NFL team ever had a worse season than the Falcons?

• Franchise QB found guilty on dog fighting charges
• Capable backup QB traded in the offseason
• Franchise forced to start Joey Harrington, one of the worst QBs in the league
• Acquires Byron Leftwich off waivers, only to have him get injured and also play poorly when healthy
• 1st year head coach leaves the team in the middle of a 3-10 start to return to college
• Bill Cowher publicly declines interest in coaching there
• Bill Parcells appears THIS close to signing as the new GM/President of Football when…

…he instead signs a 4-year deal with the 1-13 Miami Dolphins!

Man oh man…the Falcons are two weeks away from the offseason and have:

• A neutered GM
• No head coach
• No franchise QB
• No chance at the 1st overall pick

So if you were Arthur Blank, how would you go about changing things? I would love to hear people’s thoughts.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Tom Brady, New England
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Snub Alert = NIL: They’re 1-2-3 in passing TDs and passer rating in the AFC, and are all in position to lead their teams to division titles. The AFC QB situation was top heavy this year, as Derek Anderson and David Garrard were also deserving; but not at the expense of the three selections.

Running Backs (RB)

• LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
• Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
• Joseph Addai, Indianapolis

Snub Alert = Willis McGahee & Jamal Lewis: I keep hearing about Fred Taylor’s “Pro Bowl snub” and I’m just not seeing it. Sure, he’s averaging 5.1 yards per rush but is only 14th in yards from scrimmage with a meager 4 TDs. The real snubs were a pair of AFC North runners. McGahee has almost as many yards from scrimmage as Willie Parker but 4x the TDs (8 vs. 2) while Jamal Lewis is 9th in the league in yards with a better YPC (4.3) than either Parker or Addai. Lewis has 11 TDs to Parker’s 2.

Fullback (FB)

• Lorenzo Neal, San Diego

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Randy Moss, New England
• Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
• Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati

Snub Alert = Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall & ‘Ocho Cinco’: I personally think the AFC WR selections are spot on, but a case could be made for Welker (96 catches, 9 TDs), Marshall (1,136 yards, 6 TDs) and Chad Johnson (1,265 yards, 6 TDs), too. Unfortunately for those three, it has been a historic year for WR production with Moss (19 TDs), Edwards (13 TDs) and Housh (11 TDs) all putting up huge numbers while Wayne is 2nd in the AFC in yards with an impressive 9 TDs while emerging as the go-to receiver for Peyton Manning in Marvin Harrison’s absence.

Tight End (TE)

• Antonio Gates, San Diego
• Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City

Snub Alert = Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Statistically Winslow and Gonzalez are close enough that one can’t argue Tony G doesn’t deserve to backup Gates (who is clearly the best in the business); but WATCHING them this year, I think the nod should’ve gone to Winslow. Gonzalez is having the quietest “big” season from a tight end in years, at least from this fan’s perspective.

Offensive Line

• Matt Light, New England (T)
• Jason Peters, Buffalo (T)
• Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore (T)
• Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh (G)
• Logan Mankins, New England (G)
• Kris Dielman, San Diego (G)
• Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis (C)
• Dan Koppen, New England (C)

Snub Alert = Joe Thomas (T), Eric Steinbach (G) & Michael Roos (T): You can argue that the Patriots line is greater than the sum of its parts; but for as long as the Pro Bowl has been around, dominant teams have been afforded multiple lineman on the roster. I’m less bothered by the trio of Patriots as I am the presence of Jon Ogden. Sure, he may be a Hall of Famer but he’s been an absolute shell of himself this year and his presence keeps two young deserving tackles, Roos and Thomas, off the roster. Similarly, Eric Steinbach has mauled people and been worth every penny Cleveland paid him; there is room for him on this roster over any of the guards selected.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Brett Favre, Green Bay
• Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
• Tony Romo, Dallas

Snub Alert = NIL: Hard to make a case for any other NFC QBs. All three players have great stats and have guided their teams to division crowns. 

Running Backs (RB)

• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
• Marion Barber, Dallas
• Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia

Snub Alert = Clinton “Kid Bro Sweets” Portis: Brian Westbrook leads all NFL runners with 1,896 yards from scrimmage and Adrian Peterson is 3rd (behind LT) despite missing a few games; but the selection of Marion Barber (19th in yards from scrimmage, 11 TDs) over Clinton Portis (6th in yards/scrimmage, 8 TDs) is worth noting. Given the Cowboys’ success and Barber’s better yards per rush; I think it was the right choice but Portis could’ve justified a nod and I wouldn’t have questioned it.

Fullback (FB)

• Tony Richardson, Minnesota

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
• Terrell Owens, Dallas
• Torry Holt, St. Louis
• Donald Driver, Green Bay

Snub Alert = Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress & Greg Jennings: No disrespect to Torry Holt and Donald Driver, but neither deserved a Pro Bowl nod this year. Marques Colston was unquestionably snubbed (87 recs/1092 yards/9 TDs) while Burress and Jennings (10 TDs and 12 TDs, respectively) have both been more impactful than Driver this year.

Tight End (TE)

• Jason Witten, Dallas
• Chris Cooley, Washington

Snub Alert = NIL: Witten and Cooley have been, far and away, the two most deserving tight ends in the NFC all season.

Offensive Line

• Flozell Adams, Dallas (T)
• Walter Jones, Seattle (T)
• Chris Samuels, Washington (T)
• Leonard Davis, Dallas (G)
• Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota (G)
• Shawn Andrews, Philadelphia (G)
• Andre Gurode, Dallas (C)
• Matt Birk, Minnesota (C)

Snub Alert = Chad Clifton, Green Bay (T) and Chris Snee, New York (G): The offensive line selections are often joked about as being tenured (once you’re in, you’re in until you retire) and many of the same names appear predictably. I don’t have a ton of problems with the selections save for the omission of Chad Clifton, who has been the best lineman one of the NFC’s dominant offenses. Chris Snee, as much as it pains me to say, is more deserving this year than Big Cat Andrews, as well.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

As you might imagine, I’m in a lot of leagues. In TEN of them, I had the good fortune to draft Tony Romo and, in most, made the playoffs as a result. While Romo hasn’t been Tom Brady, he’s been awfully good and considering he came in the 7th or 8th round of most 10- team drafts; he’s arguably one of the most valuable players of the season.

But as any veteran fantasy owner knows, once the fantasy playoffs roll around, your only as good as your last game.

Thanks to Tony Romo; I’m now pretty crappy.

• 13 completions
• 36 attempts
• 36.1% completion percentage
• 214 yards
• 0 TDs
• 3 INTs
• 9.3 fantasy points [using FBG scoring]

NOTHING is more painful than having one or more of your fantasy studs lay a goose egg in the playoffs. For those playing at home (and I know a lot of you are!)…Romo was outscored by TWENTY THREE (23) other QBs this week, including such “studs” as:

• Chad Pennington, NYJ
• Matt Moore, CAR
• Josh McCown, OAK
• Brodie Croyle, KC
• Cleo Lemon, MIA
• Shaun Hill, SF

FUN TIMES!

So what does this have to do with Jessica Simpson, you ask? Well, it seems our Mr. Romo has a trouble playing at his normal Pro Bowl level when a lady love is in the stands. This weekend, a pink-jersey clad Jessica Simpson was watching Romo stink up the joint. Coincidence, you say? Well let me ask you this…when was the last time Romo had a game this poor?

• Week 16, 2006
• 14 of 29 (48.3%)
• 142 yards
• 1 TD
• 2 INTs

What was special about that game? Carrie Underwood, his girlfriend at the time, was in the stands.

Bottom line: If you draft Tony Romo for your fantasy team, do everything humanly possible to make sure he isn’t dating a blonde pop idol at the time of your playoffs…OR ELSE!

Big-time congratulations to Brett Favre who became the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards; and did so on a day when his team a) won the game and b) wrapped up a first round bye in this year’s playoffs.

A lot of people are stunned at the Packers 12-2 record but perhaps they should be even more surprised with the way Favre has returned to an MVP-like form after several years of declining productivity.

Here are a few of the records Brett Favre now possesses:

• 1st all-time passing attempts
• 1st all-time pass completions
• 1st all-time passing yards
• 1st all-time passing TDs
• 1st all-time interceptions thrown
• 1st all-time in wins
• 1st all-time NFL MVP awards
• 1st all-time in consecutive games played for a QB

Mario Williams just wrapped up a 3.5 sack game tonight against the Broncos, giving him 13 on the season (2nd in the NFL). He’s been a dominant pass rusher and, unlike many of today’s pass rushers, has the size to consistently stop the run. It seems that the Texans got absolutely filleted when they chose Williams over Reggie Bush and Vince Young last April. Yet, I wonder if as many people would say it was a mistake in retrospect.

Reggie Bush has struggled mightily and is now injured; while the Texans could use a feature back history tells us it’s far easier to find a productive runner than a dominant pass rusher. And while Vince Young still has many believers, he’s struggled at times this year while the Texans appear to have not one, but TWO above average passers on the roster. Sage Rosenfels has played extremely well, and while Matt Schaub has battled injuries, it would be hard to argue the combination of those two isn’t a decent option.

Yeah…this was the way we all expected things to play out:

Top 50 Fantasy RBs through Week 14

The 2005 NFL Draft was an odd one in many ways. Many will remember Aaron Rodgers falling all the way down to the 24th pick in the first round after many expected a top ten destination. It was Alex Smith from Utah that was taken with the first pick in the draft. The three quarterbacks taken in the first round were Alex Smith (1.01), Aaron Rodgers (1.24), and Jason Campbell (1.25).

Now, let’s look at each of the three:

Alex Smith has started 30 games for San Francisco in the three years. He struggled as a rookie with one touchdown pass and eleven interceptions. In his career, Smith has 19 scoring tosses and 31 picks. That is terrible by any standard. Another telling statistic is the passing yardage. Alex Smith has 4,679 passing yards in his 32-game career. In 2007, many had high aspirations for the third-year pro. He was coming off of a top twenty finish among fantasy quarterbacks. The team traded for veteran receiver, Darrell Jackson. But, Smith was averaging just 4.2 yards per pass attempt, with two scores and four interceptions, before being replaced by Trent Dilfer because of a shoulder injury. There is legitimate doubt to whether Alex Smith can be an average quarterback in the NFL. It is a sad commentary that Trent Dilfer has outplayed Alex Smith.

Aaron Rodgers was drafted because the Packers thought there was a decent chance Brett Favre would have retired by now. The former Cal Bear has yet to start a game. Many feared that Aaron Rodgers was a “system quarterback” in college and would have a difficult time adjusting to the NFL. He has appeared in seven games in three seasons. Rodgers looked very poised replacing an injured Brett Favre in the week thirteen matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. This was the most action he had seen in any regular season game so far in his young career. Rodgers completed 18 of 26 passes for 201 yards and a scoring toss to Greg Jennings. Green Bay Packer fans must be a little less apprehensive about the future with the way Favre’s backup played. The Packers have some young talent on offense, giving hope for Rodgers’ future. Brett Favre injured his forearm and separated his shoulder in the game. The veteran passer thinks he will play in the week fourteen game against the Oakland Raiders. If not, Aaron Rodgers looks poised to play, and play well.

Jason Campbell has played well this season, especially considering how poorly his receivers have performed. He is the eleventh ranked fantasy quarterback coming into week thirteen. Campbell did not play as a rookie, so this is his second season under center for the Redskins. He has been solid, yet unspectacular. The offense is run-heavy and the Washington Redskins have few playmakers. Chris Cooley and Santana Moss are the only legitimate weapons in the passing game. The 2007 season has seen Jason Campbell take a giant step forward. He has progressed and matured as a NFL quarterback. Through the eleven games, Jason Campbell has thrown for 2, 384 yards, twelve touchdowns, and ten interceptions. He also has added another 169 yards on he ground and a rushing score. One statistic many use to compare passers is yards per pass attempt. The former Auburn star is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. This is a very solid number, indicative of his solid performance this year.

Even though Alex Smith was the only one of these three that played much as a rookie, or even through the first half of last year, he is not progressing as a NFL quarterback. This was a relatively weak quarterback class, but Campbell and Rodgers look to be good young quarterbacks for their respective franchises.

Over the weekend as I was sitting in the rainy cold air waiting for my cursed beloved Eagles to kick off what would amount to their 8th loss of the season, my buddies and I were discussing the NFL Coaching Carousel and which coaches we thought would be most likely to be shown the door.

Bobby Petrino was NOT one of them. Despite a miserable Falcons season, Petrino was in his first year, had made the leap from college to the pros, and presumably would be given a mulligan on the season given the distractions of Michael Vick and the inability of Petrino to install his offense.

Well…looks like Coach Petrino didn’t feel as comfortable with the Falcons as owner Arthur Blank did with him.

Bobby Petrino resigns from the Falcons, reportedly close to deal with University of Arkansas

It’s unusual for an NFL coach to resign mid-season, but it makes sense when said coach has a particular collegiate job on the line. If reports are to be believed, Petrino may even coach the Razorbacks in their upcoming bowl game.

Regardless of what you may think of this particular situation, any NFL owner and GM would have to be out of their minds to seriously consider a college head coach as their next NFL hire given recent history:

• Bobby Petrino (3-10 with Falcons) — Leaves Atlanta before the end of the regular season; returning to the college ranks just one season after leaving Louisville
• Nick Saban (15-17 with Miami) — Leaves LSU (where he won a national title) to come to Miami and departs after two losing seasons to return to the SEC (Alabama)
• Steve Spurrier (12-20 with Washington) — Leaves University of Florida (where he was an icon) to coach the Redskins, only to go back to South Carolina after two losing seasons in D.C.
• Butch Davis (24-35 with Cleveland) — Davis, a national championship winner at the University of Miami, returns to the pros as the Browns head coach only to deliver 3.5 seasons of ineptitude before being fired midway into the 2004 season
• Mike Riley (14-34 with San Diego) — Mike Riley puts in a solid 8-8 rookie season as the Chargers head coach, but then delivers 6 wins over the next two years before returning to the Pac-10

What’s amazing about this list is that, other than Mike Riley, each of these coaches were atop elite NCAA programs and basically had jobs for as long as they wanted them. But they each were drawn by the allure of the NFL; which has the perception of being the ultimate challenge for a football coach. But while the NFL is certainly the pinnacle in many respects, it’s a vastly different environment than the NCAAs.

I told you all that Atlanta would be fantasy Armageddon this year, but Falcons fans and owner Arthur Blank deserve better than what they’ve had to deal with this year.

Two weeks ago we discussed the necessity of QB stability for NFL success. At the time, there were 4 teams (Arizona, Carolina, Miami and Minnesota) who started THREE QBs this season. Here is a refresher:

Team	QB1	QB2	QB3
Arizona	Matt Leinart	Kurt Warner	Tim Rattay
Carolina	Jake Delhomme	David Carr	Vinny Testaverde
Miami	Trent Green	Cleo Lemon	John Beck
Minnesota	Tarvaris Jackson	Brooks Bollinger	Kelly Holcomb

It’s no surprise that none of these teams have a winning record. A few other points to consider:

• 53 QBs have started at least one game this year
• 17 teams have used at least 2 starters
• After this weekend (Donovan McNabb = Doubtful), 18 teams (56% of the NFL) will have started 2+ QBs

A few interesting things have happened since I wrote this:

1. Minnesota has won 4 games in a row to raise their record to 7-6
2. Atlanta joined the ranks of 3 QB teams when Chris Redman got the start in Week 14
3. St. Louis joined the ranks as Brock Berlin started Week 14
4. San Francisco will join the ranks this week when Shaun Hill gets the start
5. Chicago will join the ranks as Kyle Orton has been named the Week 15 starter

As if that weren’t enough, several other teams could conceivably join the 3-QB club by season’s end:

• Baltimore — Troy Smith saw time this week, might Baltimore give him a start or two?
• Oakland — There really is no reason why the team shouldn’t give 1st overall pick JaMarcus Russell a start
• Philadelphia — McNabb is back under center, but might Kevin Kolb get a look in Week 17? Probably not

Sorry for the week long timeout from blogging, I was on vacation in Turks & Caicos and, despite assurances from my wife to the contrary when we booked the trip, our resort did not have wifi or high-speed internet access. What I call a bummer she called a refreshing change of pace.

Anyway, back to blogging and thanks for hanging in there while we were radio silent…