Comments on: #1 Overall QBs: Is this year the most damning? http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/ Fantasy Football Info for Serious Fans Fri, 25 Jul 2008 03:12:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-327 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:55:39 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-327 Looking at those lists I would say your best odds of getting a quality starting QB are still taking one in the first round. Looking at those lists I would say your best odds of getting a quality starting QB are still taking one in the first round.

]]> By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-326 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:54:38 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-326 ROUND 7 - 0% Round Pick Name Team College 7 1 John Navarre Cardinals Michigan 7 6 Tim Rattay 49ers Louisiana Tech 7 8 Jarious Jackson Broncos Notre Dame 7 5 Seth Burford Chargers Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo 7 16 Cody Pickett 49ers Washington 7 17 Casey Bramlet Bengals Wyoming 7 15 D.J. Shockley Falcons Georgia 7 24 Matt Mauck Broncos Louisiana State 7 21 Michael Bishop Patriots Kansas State 7 15 James Kilian Chiefs Tulsa 7 16 Matt Cassel Patriots USC 7 18 Gibran Hamdan Redskins Indiana 7 21 Jeff Kelly Seahawks Southern Mississippi 7 43 Moses Moreno Bears Colorado 7 28 Joe Hamilton Buccaneers Georgia Tech 7 24 Ronald Curry Raiders North Carolina 7 25 Wes Pate Ravens Stephen F. Austin 7 33 Chris Greisen Cardinals Northwest Missouri State 7 27 Ken Dorsey 49ers Miami (FL) 7 39 Scott Covington Bengals Miami (FL) 7 47 B.J. Symons Texans Texas Tech 7 36 Ryan Fitzpatrick Rams Harvard 7 49 Bradlee Van Pelt Broncos Colorado State ROUND 7 - 0%

Round Pick Name Team College
7 1 John Navarre Cardinals Michigan
7 6 Tim Rattay 49ers Louisiana Tech
7 8 Jarious Jackson Broncos Notre Dame
7 5 Seth Burford Chargers Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
7 16 Cody Pickett 49ers Washington
7 17 Casey Bramlet Bengals Wyoming
7 15 D.J. Shockley Falcons Georgia
7 24 Matt Mauck Broncos Louisiana State
7 21 Michael Bishop Patriots Kansas State
7 15 James Kilian Chiefs Tulsa
7 16 Matt Cassel Patriots USC
7 18 Gibran Hamdan Redskins Indiana
7 21 Jeff Kelly Seahawks Southern Mississippi
7 43 Moses Moreno Bears Colorado
7 28 Joe Hamilton Buccaneers Georgia Tech
7 24 Ronald Curry Raiders North Carolina
7 25 Wes Pate Ravens Stephen F. Austin
7 33 Chris Greisen Cardinals Northwest Missouri State
7 27 Ken Dorsey 49ers Miami (FL)
7 39 Scott Covington Bengals Miami (FL)
7 47 B.J. Symons Texans Texas Tech
7 36 Ryan Fitzpatrick Rams Harvard
7 49 Bradlee Van Pelt Broncos Colorado State

]]> By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-325 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:53:56 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-325 ROUND 6 - 19% Round Pick Name Team College 6 2 Marc Bulger * Saints West Virginia 6 9 Josh Booty Seahawks Louisiana State 6 19 John Dutton Dolphins Nevada 6 14 Josh Heupel Dolphins Oklahoma 6 17 Spergon Wynn Browns Southwest Texas State 6 20 Andy Hall Eagles Delaware 6 14 J.T. O'Sullivan Saints California-Davis 6 22 Josh Harris Ravens Bowling Green 6 34 Matt Hasselbeck * Packers Boston College 6 19 Drew Henson Texans Michigan 6 24 Reggie McNeal Bengals Texas A&M 6 28 Jim Sorgi Colts Wisconsin 6 25 Bruce Gradkowski Buccaneers Toledo 6 33 Tom Brady * Patriots Michigan 6 27 Brooks Bollinger Jets Wisconsin 6 36 Jeff Smoker Rams Michigan State 6 28 Kliff Kingsbury Patriots Texas Tech 6 36 Todd Husak Redskins Stanford 6 33 Steve Bellisari Rams Ohio State 6 39 JaJuan Seider Chargers Florida A&M 6 39 Derek Anderson * Ravens Oregon State ROUND 6 - 19%

Round Pick Name Team College
6 2 Marc Bulger * Saints West Virginia
6 9 Josh Booty Seahawks Louisiana State
6 19 John Dutton Dolphins Nevada
6 14 Josh Heupel Dolphins Oklahoma
6 17 Spergon Wynn Browns Southwest Texas State
6 20 Andy Hall Eagles Delaware
6 14 J.T. O’Sullivan Saints California-Davis
6 22 Josh Harris Ravens Bowling Green
6 34 Matt Hasselbeck * Packers Boston College
6 19 Drew Henson Texans Michigan
6 24 Reggie McNeal Bengals Texas A&M
6 28 Jim Sorgi Colts Wisconsin
6 25 Bruce Gradkowski Buccaneers Toledo
6 33 Tom Brady * Patriots Michigan
6 27 Brooks Bollinger Jets Wisconsin
6 36 Jeff Smoker Rams Michigan State
6 28 Kliff Kingsbury Patriots Texas Tech
6 36 Todd Husak Redskins Stanford
6 33 Steve Bellisari Rams Ohio State
6 39 JaJuan Seider Chargers Florida A&M
6 39 Derek Anderson * Ravens Oregon State

]]> By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-324 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:52:53 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-324 ROUND 5 - 0% Round Pick Name Team College 5 2 Randy Fasani Panthers Stanford 5 9 Dan Orlovsky Lions Connecticut 5 15 Ingle Martin Packers Furman 5 16 Craig Krenzel Bears Ohio State 5 18 Mike McMahon Lions Rutgers 5 18 Kevin Daft Oilers California-Davis 5 16 Adrian McPherson Saints Florida State 5 24 A.J. Feeley Eagles Oregon 5 23 Kurt Kittner Falcons Illinois 5 28 Brian St. Pierre Steelers Boston College 5 28 Brandon Doman 49ers Brigham Young 5 34 Tee Martin Steelers Tennessee 5 32 Omar Jacobs Steelers Bowling Green 5 29 Craig Nall Packers Northwestern State ROUND 5 - 0%

Round Pick Name Team College
5 2 Randy Fasani Panthers Stanford
5 9 Dan Orlovsky Lions Connecticut
5 15 Ingle Martin Packers Furman
5 16 Craig Krenzel Bears Ohio State
5 18 Mike McMahon Lions Rutgers
5 18 Kevin Daft Oilers California-Davis
5 16 Adrian McPherson Saints Florida State
5 24 A.J. Feeley Eagles Oregon
5 23 Kurt Kittner Falcons Illinois
5 28 Brian St. Pierre Steelers Boston College
5 28 Brandon Doman 49ers Brigham Young
5 34 Tee Martin Steelers Tennessee
5 32 Omar Jacobs Steelers Bowling Green
5 29 Craig Nall Packers Northwestern State

]]> By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-323 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:51:58 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-323 ROUND 4 - 9% Round Pick Name Team College 4 6 Joe Germaine Rams Ohio State 4 5 Kyle Orton Bears Purdue 4 10 Luke McCown Browns Louisiana Tech 4 11 Chris Weinke Panthers Florida State 4 10 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina 4 14 Sage Rosenfels Redskins Iowa State 4 13 Seneca Wallace Seahawks Iowa State 4 19 Rohan Davey Patriots Louisiana State 4 20 Stefan Lefors Panthers Louisville 4 30 Jesse Palmer Giants Florida 4 36 Aaron Brooks * Packers Virginia ROUND 4 - 9%

Round Pick Name Team College
4 6 Joe Germaine Rams Ohio State
4 5 Kyle Orton Bears Purdue
4 10 Luke McCown Browns Louisiana Tech
4 11 Chris Weinke Panthers Florida State
4 10 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina
4 14 Sage Rosenfels Redskins Iowa State
4 13 Seneca Wallace Seahawks Iowa State
4 19 Rohan Davey Patriots Louisiana State
4 20 Stefan Lefors Panthers Louisville
4 30 Jesse Palmer Giants Florida
4 36 Aaron Brooks * Packers Virginia

]]> By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-322 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:51:15 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-322 ROUND 3 - 22% Round Pick Name Team College 3 3 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers Hofstra 3 3 Charlie Frye Browns Akron 3 5 Andrew Walter Raiders Arizona State 3 13 Chris Redman Ravens Louisville 3 16 Brock Huard Seahawks Washington 3 17 Charlie Whitehurst Chargers Clemson 3 16 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State 3 21 Brodie Croyle * Chiefs Alabama 3 21 David Greene Seahawks Georgia 3 25 Jonathan Quinn Jaguars Middle Tennessee State 3 24 Dave Ragone Texans Louisville 3 27 Matt Schaub * Falcons Virginia 3 30 Brian Griese * Broncos Michigan 3 33 Chris Simms Buccaneers Texas ROUND 3 - 22%

Round Pick Name Team College
3 3 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers Hofstra
3 3 Charlie Frye Browns Akron
3 5 Andrew Walter Raiders Arizona State
3 13 Chris Redman Ravens Louisville
3 16 Brock Huard Seahawks Washington
3 17 Charlie Whitehurst Chargers Clemson
3 16 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State
3 21 Brodie Croyle * Chiefs Alabama
3 21 David Greene Seahawks Georgia
3 25 Jonathan Quinn Jaguars Middle Tennessee State
3 24 Dave Ragone Texans Louisville
3 27 Matt Schaub * Falcons Virginia
3 30 Brian Griese * Broncos Michigan
3 33 Chris Simms Buccaneers Texas

]]> By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-321 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:50:05 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-321 ROUND 2 - 29% Round Pick Name Team College 2 1 Drew Brees * Chargers Purdue 2 17 Kellen Clemens * Jets Oregon 2 19 Shaun King Buccaneers Tulane 2 22 Quincy Carter Cowboys Georgia 2 28 Marques Tuiasosopo Raiders Washington 2 30 Charlie Batch Lions Eastern Michigan 2 32 Tarvaris Jackson Vikings Alabama State ROUND 2 - 29%

Round Pick Name Team College
2 1 Drew Brees * Chargers Purdue
2 17 Kellen Clemens * Jets Oregon
2 19 Shaun King Buccaneers Tulane
2 22 Quincy Carter Cowboys Georgia
2 28 Marques Tuiasosopo Raiders Washington
2 30 Charlie Batch Lions Eastern Michigan
2 32 Tarvaris Jackson Vikings Alabama State

]]> By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-320 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:49:19 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-320 I did some research - Percentage of QB's who turn out to be (IMO) decent starters: ROUND 1 - 54% (decent starters IMO) Round Pick Name Team College 1 1 Alex D. Smith 49ers Utah 1 1 Eli Manning * Chargers Mississippi 1 1 Carson Palmer * Bengals USC 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State 1 1 Michael Vick * Falcons Virginia Tech 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky 1 1 Peyton Manning * Colts Tennessee 1 2 Donovan McNabb * Eagles Syracuse 1 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State 1 3 Vince Young * Titans Texas 1 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon 1 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon 1 4 Philip Rivers * Giants North Carolina State 1 7 Byron Leftwich * Jaguars Marshall 1 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC 1 11 Jay Cutler * Broncos Vanderbilt 1 11 Ben Roethlisberger * Steelers Miami (OH) 1 11 Daunte Culpepper * Vikings Central Florida 1 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA 1 18 Chad Pennington * Jets Marshall 1 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California 1 22 J.P. Losman * Bills Tulane 1 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida 1 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California 1 25 Jason Campbell * Redskins Auburn 1 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane I did some research - Percentage of QB’s who turn out to be (IMO) decent starters:

ROUND 1 - 54% (decent starters IMO)

Round Pick Name Team College
1 1 Alex D. Smith 49ers Utah
1 1 Eli Manning * Chargers Mississippi
1 1 Carson Palmer * Bengals USC
1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
1 1 Michael Vick * Falcons Virginia Tech
1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky
1 1 Peyton Manning * Colts Tennessee
1 2 Donovan McNabb * Eagles Syracuse
1 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State
1 3 Vince Young * Titans Texas
1 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
1 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon
1 4 Philip Rivers * Giants North Carolina State
1 7 Byron Leftwich * Jaguars Marshall
1 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC
1 11 Jay Cutler * Broncos Vanderbilt
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger * Steelers Miami (OH)
1 11 Daunte Culpepper * Vikings Central Florida
1 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA
1 18 Chad Pennington * Jets Marshall
1 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California
1 22 J.P. Losman * Bills Tulane
1 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida
1 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California
1 25 Jason Campbell * Redskins Auburn
1 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane

]]> By: craigboy http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-319 craigboy Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:45:15 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-319 For these number to really mean anything you have to look at the total number of QB's taken in these rounds and what the percentage of them working out is. The percentage is really the telling factor. Yes it looks like you can take a QB after the first round and be ok, but if in reality only %1 percent of them work out, it doesn't mean a whole lot. Still a nice blog post though. For these number to really mean anything you have to look at the total number of QB’s taken in these rounds and what the percentage of them working out is.

The percentage is really the telling factor. Yes it looks like you can take a QB after the first round and be ok, but if in reality only %1 percent of them work out, it doesn’t mean a whole lot.

Still a nice blog post though.

]]> By: tmarman http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-318 tmarman Tue, 13 Nov 2007 20:19:21 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/11/13/1-overall-qbs-is-this-year-the-most-damning/#comment-318 Every pick comes with some risk - and there have been plenty of non-QB busts (Benson, Gallery, Mandarich, etc). I think the economics of early picks drive this more than anything else. An early selection is going to command a high salary regardless of position. And all of these selections come with risk - there have been PLENTY of non-QBs taken in the top 5 or top 10 that haven't panned out. So, a good strategy would be to maximize the potential reward. In general, football marginalizes the impact that a single player can have, but QB is arguably the one position that can have the most direct impact. If you're going to gamble on a high pick like that, shouldn't it be on a position that can have the biggest impact? Every pick comes with some risk - and there have been plenty of non-QB busts (Benson, Gallery, Mandarich, etc).

I think the economics of early picks drive this more than anything else. An early selection is going to command a high salary regardless of position. And all of these selections come with risk - there have been PLENTY of non-QBs taken in the top 5 or top 10 that haven’t panned out.

So, a good strategy would be to maximize the potential reward. In general, football marginalizes the impact that a single player can have, but QB is arguably the one position that can have the most direct impact. If you’re going to gamble on a high pick like that, shouldn’t it be on a position that can have the biggest impact?

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