#1 Overall QBs: Is this year the most damning?
One of the great things about the NFL is the passion of the fans. We ALL think we’re, at times, smarter than the coaches and personnel executives who manager our teams. We all like to 2nd guess specific draft choices, certain plays on game day. While intellectually we may know that we’re NOT as good as the people who run our teams, the emotional drain of an NFL season deludes us into thinking otherwise.
One of the CLASSIC debates revolves around whether it’s worth spending huge $$$$ on a rookie quarterback. Judging from NFL draft history, the majority of NFL executives think it’s a worthwhile strategy. On the other hand, it seems a majority of fans would rather “find value” at the QB position and not commit so much money to an unproven signal caller who could set their team back for years if he busts.
This is a debate that’s not likely to resolve itself anytime soon. But 10 weeks into this season, it’s looking like 2007 will go down as a year when the FANS perspective gained some ground empirically.
Consider:
In the last 10 years, a quarterback was drafted 1st overall EIGHT (80%!) times:
- 1998 — Peyton Manning, IND
- 1999 — Tim Couch, CLE
- 2001 — Michael Vick, ATL
- 2002 — David Carr, HOU
- 2003 — Carson Palmer, CIN
- 2004 — Eli Manning, NYG
- 2005 — Alex Smith, SF
- 2007 — JaMarcus Russell, OAK
Certainly no one is going to argue that Peyton Manning wasn’t worth the selection. He’s potentially going to finish his career as the league’s most productive passer; has multiple league MVPs and has one SB title with years left to add another. But what of the rest of this motley crew? Certainly there are a few players in this group who have been productive: Carson Palmer has been consistently productive despite his teams travails; Eli Manning is erratic but is better than 2/3rds of the league’s passers; and Mike Vick won a ton of games before legal troubles ended his reign in Atlanta. But when you consider the respective places of these franchises and their lack of success; it does make you wonder.
And THEN come the “bargains”; eight of the top 12 passers through Week 12 were NOT first rounders:
- Tom Brady (6th rounder)
- Tony Romo (Undrafted)
- Derek Anderson (6th rounder)
- Brett Favre (2nd rounder)
- Matt Hasselbeck (6th rounder)
- Drew Brees (2nd rounder)
- Jon Kitna (Undrafted)
- Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)
Is anyone going to argue that Eli Manning and Alex Smith are better than Tony Romo? Will anyone trade Tim Couch’s career (and his impact on the team) for Matt Hasselbeck’s?
And we haven’t even mentioned other “bargain bin” QBs that have proven capable of putting up big numbers:
- Marc Bulger (6th rounder)
- Jake Delhomme (Undrafted)
- Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Let’s look at the draft pedigree of the last 10 Super Bowl winners (and runners-up)
| Year | Winner | QB | Draft | Loser | QB | Draft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Colts | P.Manning | 1.01 | Bears | R.Grossman | 1.22 |
| 2005 | Steelers | B.Roethlisberger | 1.11 | Seahawks | M.Hasselbeck | 6.34 |
| 2004 | Patriots | T.Brady | 6.33 | Eagles | D.McNabb | 1.02 |
| 2003 | Patriots | T.Brady | 6.33 | Panthers | J.Delhomme | Undrafted |
| 2002 | Buccaneers | B.Johnson | 9.03 | Raiders | R.Gannon | 4.14 |
| 2001 | Patriots | T.Brady | 6.33 | Rams | K.Warner | Undrafted |
| 2000 | Ravens | T.Dilfer | 1.06 | Giants | K.Collins | 1.05 |
| 1999 | Rams | K.Warner | Undrafted | Titans | S.McNair | 1.03 |
| 1998 | Broncos | J.Elway | 1.01 | Falcons | C.Chandler | 3.21 |
| 1997 | Broncos | J.Elway | 1.01 | Packers | B.Favre | 2.06 |
What’s striking is the “feast or famine” nature of the results. Five of the 10 winners have fielded high 1st round selections, which five instances were late round/undrafted QBs. The differential is similar in the runners up side of the ledger.
What does it all mean? Is it worth drafting a QB 1st overall? Is there a reason the “great” QBs seem to either be high picks OR very late round picks versus the myriad mid round QBs that we draftniks seem to get so excited about each year?
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Every pick comes with some risk - and there have been plenty of non-QB busts (Benson, Gallery, Mandarich, etc).
I think the economics of early picks drive this more than anything else. An early selection is going to command a high salary regardless of position. And all of these selections come with risk - there have been PLENTY of non-QBs taken in the top 5 or top 10 that haven’t panned out.
So, a good strategy would be to maximize the potential reward. In general, football marginalizes the impact that a single player can have, but QB is arguably the one position that can have the most direct impact. If you’re going to gamble on a high pick like that, shouldn’t it be on a position that can have the biggest impact?
Comment by tmarman — November 13, 2007 @ 3:19 pm
For these number to really mean anything you have to look at the total number of QB’s taken in these rounds and what the percentage of them working out is.
The percentage is really the telling factor. Yes it looks like you can take a QB after the first round and be ok, but if in reality only %1 percent of them work out, it doesn’t mean a whole lot.
Still a nice blog post though.
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:45 am
I did some research - Percentage of QB’s who turn out to be (IMO) decent starters:
ROUND 1 - 54% (decent starters IMO)
Round Pick Name Team College
1 1 Alex D. Smith 49ers Utah
1 1 Eli Manning * Chargers Mississippi
1 1 Carson Palmer * Bengals USC
1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
1 1 Michael Vick * Falcons Virginia Tech
1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky
1 1 Peyton Manning * Colts Tennessee
1 2 Donovan McNabb * Eagles Syracuse
1 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State
1 3 Vince Young * Titans Texas
1 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
1 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon
1 4 Philip Rivers * Giants North Carolina State
1 7 Byron Leftwich * Jaguars Marshall
1 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC
1 11 Jay Cutler * Broncos Vanderbilt
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger * Steelers Miami (OH)
1 11 Daunte Culpepper * Vikings Central Florida
1 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA
1 18 Chad Pennington * Jets Marshall
1 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California
1 22 J.P. Losman * Bills Tulane
1 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida
1 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California
1 25 Jason Campbell * Redskins Auburn
1 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:49 am
ROUND 2 - 29%
Round Pick Name Team College
2 1 Drew Brees * Chargers Purdue
2 17 Kellen Clemens * Jets Oregon
2 19 Shaun King Buccaneers Tulane
2 22 Quincy Carter Cowboys Georgia
2 28 Marques Tuiasosopo Raiders Washington
2 30 Charlie Batch Lions Eastern Michigan
2 32 Tarvaris Jackson Vikings Alabama State
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:50 am
ROUND 3 - 22%
Round Pick Name Team College
3 3 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers Hofstra
3 3 Charlie Frye Browns Akron
3 5 Andrew Walter Raiders Arizona State
3 13 Chris Redman Ravens Louisville
3 16 Brock Huard Seahawks Washington
3 17 Charlie Whitehurst Chargers Clemson
3 16 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State
3 21 Brodie Croyle * Chiefs Alabama
3 21 David Greene Seahawks Georgia
3 25 Jonathan Quinn Jaguars Middle Tennessee State
3 24 Dave Ragone Texans Louisville
3 27 Matt Schaub * Falcons Virginia
3 30 Brian Griese * Broncos Michigan
3 33 Chris Simms Buccaneers Texas
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:51 am
ROUND 4 - 9%
Round Pick Name Team College
4 6 Joe Germaine Rams Ohio State
4 5 Kyle Orton Bears Purdue
4 10 Luke McCown Browns Louisiana Tech
4 11 Chris Weinke Panthers Florida State
4 10 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina
4 14 Sage Rosenfels Redskins Iowa State
4 13 Seneca Wallace Seahawks Iowa State
4 19 Rohan Davey Patriots Louisiana State
4 20 Stefan Lefors Panthers Louisville
4 30 Jesse Palmer Giants Florida
4 36 Aaron Brooks * Packers Virginia
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:51 am
ROUND 5 - 0%
Round Pick Name Team College
5 2 Randy Fasani Panthers Stanford
5 9 Dan Orlovsky Lions Connecticut
5 15 Ingle Martin Packers Furman
5 16 Craig Krenzel Bears Ohio State
5 18 Mike McMahon Lions Rutgers
5 18 Kevin Daft Oilers California-Davis
5 16 Adrian McPherson Saints Florida State
5 24 A.J. Feeley Eagles Oregon
5 23 Kurt Kittner Falcons Illinois
5 28 Brian St. Pierre Steelers Boston College
5 28 Brandon Doman 49ers Brigham Young
5 34 Tee Martin Steelers Tennessee
5 32 Omar Jacobs Steelers Bowling Green
5 29 Craig Nall Packers Northwestern State
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:52 am
ROUND 6 - 19%
Round Pick Name Team College
6 2 Marc Bulger * Saints West Virginia
6 9 Josh Booty Seahawks Louisiana State
6 19 John Dutton Dolphins Nevada
6 14 Josh Heupel Dolphins Oklahoma
6 17 Spergon Wynn Browns Southwest Texas State
6 20 Andy Hall Eagles Delaware
6 14 J.T. O’Sullivan Saints California-Davis
6 22 Josh Harris Ravens Bowling Green
6 34 Matt Hasselbeck * Packers Boston College
6 19 Drew Henson Texans Michigan
6 24 Reggie McNeal Bengals Texas A&M
6 28 Jim Sorgi Colts Wisconsin
6 25 Bruce Gradkowski Buccaneers Toledo
6 33 Tom Brady * Patriots Michigan
6 27 Brooks Bollinger Jets Wisconsin
6 36 Jeff Smoker Rams Michigan State
6 28 Kliff Kingsbury Patriots Texas Tech
6 36 Todd Husak Redskins Stanford
6 33 Steve Bellisari Rams Ohio State
6 39 JaJuan Seider Chargers Florida A&M
6 39 Derek Anderson * Ravens Oregon State
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:53 am
ROUND 7 - 0%
Round Pick Name Team College
7 1 John Navarre Cardinals Michigan
7 6 Tim Rattay 49ers Louisiana Tech
7 8 Jarious Jackson Broncos Notre Dame
7 5 Seth Burford Chargers Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
7 16 Cody Pickett 49ers Washington
7 17 Casey Bramlet Bengals Wyoming
7 15 D.J. Shockley Falcons Georgia
7 24 Matt Mauck Broncos Louisiana State
7 21 Michael Bishop Patriots Kansas State
7 15 James Kilian Chiefs Tulsa
7 16 Matt Cassel Patriots USC
7 18 Gibran Hamdan Redskins Indiana
7 21 Jeff Kelly Seahawks Southern Mississippi
7 43 Moses Moreno Bears Colorado
7 28 Joe Hamilton Buccaneers Georgia Tech
7 24 Ronald Curry Raiders North Carolina
7 25 Wes Pate Ravens Stephen F. Austin
7 33 Chris Greisen Cardinals Northwest Missouri State
7 27 Ken Dorsey 49ers Miami (FL)
7 39 Scott Covington Bengals Miami (FL)
7 47 B.J. Symons Texans Texas Tech
7 36 Ryan Fitzpatrick Rams Harvard
7 49 Bradlee Van Pelt Broncos Colorado State
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:54 am
Looking at those lists I would say your best odds of getting a quality starting QB are still taking one in the first round.
Comment by craigboy — November 15, 2007 @ 10:55 am