Chris Chambers: Traded to the Chargers
Who says NFL trades never happen? Yesterday Michael Bennett was traded to Tampa Bay; but today a much bigger (potentially) deal went down as the San Diego Chargers acquired Chris Chambers from the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick.
This is the rare mid-season deal that has significant fantasy implications.
- Chambers will be the lead WR in San Diego — It may take a few games, but Chambers will almost certainly become Philip Rivers most targeted WR
- Vincent Jackson can’t be happy — The Chargers young wideout is now going to have to compete for targets with a proven veteran. Ultimately this might be good for Jackson’s career though, as he may be better suited as a WR2
- Malcolm Floyd and Craig Davis become relative non-factors — Neither WR was making a ton of plays anyway, but they will now be relegated to backup duty primarily
- Philip Rivers gets an upgrade — I’m not the biggest Chambers fan (more on that in a second) but his addition definitely improves Rivers’ arsenal
- Don’t downgrade Gates or Tomlinson – Gates and Tomlinson aren’t going to lose many targets because of this move. If anything, this should allow the Chargers to sustain offensive drives more often, which means more red zone chances for Gates and Tomlinson; the best at their respective positions when it comes to scoring TDs
- The Dolphins are throwing in the towel -- Honestly, the Dolphins are officially heading toward 2008 at this point, giving up their lone playmaker in the receiving game.
- Upgrade Ted Ginn Jr. and Marty Booker — SOMEONE besides Ronnie Brown has to get passes thrown their way, and rookie Ginn is probably going to see a ton of them as the Dolphins look to rebuild toward a 2008 resurgence.
Where does this put Chambers now in terms of fantasy value?
Through six games, Chambers has 31 receptions for 415 yards, but zero TDs. His numbers project to:
- 83 receptions
- 1,107 yards
It’s difficult to look at his situation in San Diego and not expect Chambers to improve, right? Well, let’s be careful here.
Targets = Opportunity
Through six games, Chambers have been targeted a whopping 66 times. That’s the 4th most targets in the league. You can be sure that Chambers WILL NOT see as many passes thrown his way in San Diego.
- The Chargers run the ball a lot more
- Antonio Gates has been targeted 54 times; leading the team
- LaDainian Tomlinson has been targeted 38 times
- The Chargers WRs have been targeted 66 times COMBINED through Week Six
The fact is, Chambers will go from being one of THE most targeted receivers in football to somewhere toward the bottom of WR1s in the league. So the real question fantasy owners need to ask themselves is, can Chambers do MORE with each target? The bad news is Chambers has always had hands of stone.
Take a look at the 50 most targeted receivers over the last 5+ seasons (2002-2007), ranked by reception-to-target percentage:
| Rank | First | Last | Years | Targets | Recs | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bobby | Engram | 2002–2007 | 370 | 257 | 69.5% |
| 2 | T.J. | Houshmandzadeh | 2002–2007 | 493 | 329 | 66.7% |
| 3 | Reggie | Wayne | 2002–2007 | 590 | 390 | 66.1% |
| 4 | Troy | Brown | 2002–2006 | 362 | 237 | 65.5% |
| 5 | Derrick | Mason | 2002–2007 | 722 | 472 | 65.4% |
| 6 | Marvin | Harrison | 2002–2007 | 791 | 516 | 65.2% |
| 7 | Hines | Ward | 2002–2007 | 681 | 439 | 64.5% |
| 8 | Steve | Smith | 2002–2007 | 589 | 369 | 62.6% |
| 9 | Dennis | Northcutt | 2002–2007 | 381 | 238 | 62.5% |
| 10 | Keenan | McCardell | 2002–2007 | 459 | 286 | 62.3% |
| 11 | Ike | Hilliard | 2002–2007 | 374 | 233 | 62.3% |
| 12 | Rod | Smith | 2002–2006 | 610 | 379 | 62.1% |
| 13 | Torry | Holt | 2002–2007 | 863 | 529 | 61.3% |
| 14 | Larry | Fitzgerald | 2004–2007 | 444 | 270 | 60.8% |
| 15 | Eric | Moulds | 2002–2007 | 677 | 404 | 59.7% |
| 16 | Donald | Driver | 2002–2007 | 705 | 419 | 59.4% |
| 17 | Deion | Branch | 2002–2007 | 485 | 288 | 59.4% |
| 18 | Andre | Johnson | 2003–2007 | 549 | 325 | 59.2% |
| 19 | Santana | Moss | 2002–2007 | 511 | 301 | 58.9% |
| 20 | Isaac | Bruce | 2002–2007 | 615 | 362 | 58.9% |
| 21 | Anquan | Boldin | 2003–2007 | 622 | 364 | 58.5% |
| 22 | Laveranues | Coles | 2002–2007 | 790 | 459 | 58.1% |
| 23 | Eddie | Kennison | 2002–2007 | 502 | 291 | 58.0% |
| 24 | Javon | Walker | 2002–2007 | 421 | 244 | 58.0% |
| 25 | Chad | Johnson | 2002–2007 | 818 | 474 | 57.9% |
| 26 | Joe | Horn | 2002–2007 | 618 | 357 | 57.8% |
| 27 | Keyshawn | Johnson | 2002–2006 | 580 | 332 | 57.2% |
| 28 | Terrell | Owens | 2002–2007 | 730 | 416 | 57.0% |
| 29 | Randy | Moss | 2002–2007 | 716 | 407 | 56.8% |
| 30 | Terry | Glenn | 2002–2006 | 463 | 263 | 56.8% |
| 31 | Darrell | Jackson | 2002–2007 | 591 | 334 | 56.5% |
| 32 | Peerless | Price | 2002–2007 | 486 | 266 | 54.7% |
| 33 | Donte | Stallworth | 2002–2007 | 463 | 252 | 54.4% |
| 34 | Jimmy | Smith | 2002–2005 | 512 | 278 | 54.3% |
| 35 | Jerry | Porter | 2002–2007 | 426 | 230 | 54.0% |
| 36 | Amani | Toomer | 2002–2007 | 586 | 314 | 53.6% |
| 37 | Koren | Robinson | 2002–2006 | 379 | 203 | 53.6% |
| 38 | Marty | Booker | 2002–2007 | 588 | 312 | 53.1% |
| 39 | Muhsin | Muhammad | 2002–2007 | 655 | 346 | 52.8% |
| 40 | Drew | Bennett | 2002–2007 | 492 | 257 | 52.2% |
| 41 | Antonio | Bryant | 2002–2006 | 483 | 251 | 52.0% |
| 42 | Travis | Taylor | 2002–2006 | 464 | 241 | 51.9% |
| 43 | Roy | Williams | 2004–2007 | 405 | 210 | 51.9% |
| 44 | Plaxico | Burress | 2002–2007 | 665 | 342 | 51.4% |
| 45 | Justin | McCareins | 2002–2007 | 370 | 190 | 51.4% |
| 46 | Bryant | Johnson | 2003–2007 | 352 | 180 | 51.1% |
| 47 | Joey | Galloway | 2002–2007 | 577 | 295 | 51.1% |
| 48 | Ashley | Lelie | 2002–2007 | 390 | 196 | 50.3% |
| 49 | Rod | Gardner | 2002–2006 | 393 | 196 | 49.9% |
| 50 | Chris | Chambers | 2002–2007 | 747 | 358 | 47.9% |
Hands of stone. And the bad news is Chambers has been consistently poor at converting targets into catches. His career best rate was, as a rookie, when he caught 53% of his targets. This year he’s running at 47%, bout 15-20% lower than most elite receivers.
What’s the silver lining?
I can see two potential areas of encouragement. 1) Norv Turner coaches Chambers for two years in Miami; including the 2003 season when Chambers finished as the 11th best fantasy wideout. 2) Chambers has ZERO TDs right now, but has historically been a good TD producer. I would be surprised if Turner doesn’t find a way to get him at least 5 or 6 TDs the rest of the way.
So what’s the verdict? If you own Chris Chambers, it’s probably a slight upgrade for you if he can score touchdowns, but in PPR leagues his value almost assuredly takes a dip for a few weeks, if not the entire season. If you were starting Vincent Jackson on a consistent basis, you probably want to look elsewhere. It also means Philip Rivers (who hopefully has been on your bench) might now become a viable option at QB. On the Dolphins side, this puts even more pressure on Ronnie Brown to carry the load. He’s been too dominant to sit, but you might want to give more consideration to a trade at this point. Ted Ginn probably is the biggest beneficiary, in that the Fins have absolutely no reason not to start him and let him get a baptism by fire the rest of the way.
Good luck!
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