Pats Punishment: Does the 1st round pick matter?
The latest brouhaha over the Patriots video-taping scandal has invited a lot of debate all across the country. As you might suspect, our Shark Pool has been knee deep in discussions; with a majority of people leveraging their pre-existing disdain for the Pats to act as though this was the most egregious act of cheating since the Black Sox scandal. Others, Pats fans and those less prone to hyperbole, are in a decidedly different camp.
Regardless of where you sit, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell came down with his “punishment” today:
- $500K fine for HC Bill Belichick [the most Goodell could fine him]
- $250K fine to the Patriots organization
- Loss of next year’s (2008) 1st round draft pick [if they make the playoffs]
- Loss of 2nd and 3rd round picks if the Pats fail to make the playoffs
The only component of this punishment that’s really punitive is the loss of a 1st round draft choice. Yes, $500K is no small amount of money but Belichick makes millions of dollars a year in salary; and has sponsorship, speaking engagements, personal appearances and other types of ancillary income to deal with the monetary loss.
So assuming the Patriots make the playoffs, is the loss of one 1st round draft pick significant?
There seems to be a school of thought who argue that the Patriots aren’t really losing much because they always draft very late in the 1st round; ergo they aren’t in position to grab elite players. Yet, history tells us that good organizations are just as likely to find quality players in the late 1st round as they are the early first round. Let’s take a look at the Patriots 1st round picks under Bill Belichick:
- 2000 — No first round pick
- 2001 — Richard Seymour (6th overall)
- 2002 — Daniel Graham (21st overall)
- 2003 — Ty Warren (13th overall)
- 2004 — Vince Wilfork (21st overall)
- 2004 — Ben Watson (32nd overall)
- 2005 — Logan Mankins (32nd overall)
- 2006 — Laurence Maroney (21st overall)
- 2007 — Brandon Meriweather (24th overall)
Does anyone still want to argue the Patriots don’t get SIGNIFICANT value from their first round picks? By my calculation, they’ve never whiffed on a 1st round pick [how many NFL teams can say that over the same span?] and have fortified key positions.
- All three of their starting defensive lineman were drafted in the 1st round, including Seymour, the team’s best front seven player
- Their current and former starting tight ends were rostered with 1st round picks
- Their starting tailback and one of their starting guards were recent 1st rounders
Another point to consider, is that New England is entitled to San Francisco’s 1st round pick this year because of a trade last year (which the 49ers used on T Joe Staley). I don’t think anyone expects the 49ers to have a better record than the Pats, which means when the dust settles, even with the loss of their own 1st round pick, the Pats are in line for a pretty darn good 1st rounder anyway.
So was the punishment stiff enough? I really can’t say; but I can say that a loss of a 1st rounder equates to the loss of a very good player based on the Pats drafting history. Personally, I would still like to have seen the team lose Belichick for a game or two; to me, that’s a punishment that would impact THIS SEASON which is exactly when the infraction occurred. But I’m not the NFL commissioner…yet. 
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