Reggie Bush was a consensus top-10 fantasy pick this year in traditional leagues, and was a top-5 pick in leagues that reward points per reception. Needless to say, he’s been a resounding disappointment so far, along with the rest of the Saints offense.

From our Footballguys Game Summaries:

Week 1 at IND - Bush had a disappointing first game as only had 45 total yards of offense. He had six carries for 21 yards rushing in the first half. He picked up a nine yard gain on an end around in the first quarter which would be his longest play from scrimmage all game. Bush did get a first down on a seven yard carry on a rare run up the middle that helped set up set up the Saints only offensive points of the game. The tough Colts pass defense held Bush to only two catches for a negative three yards in the first half. Things didn’t get much better for Bush in the second half as he was held to 17 yards rushing and ten yards receiving. The Colts speedy defense did a good job of containing Bush and covering him in the open field.

Week 2 at TB - Bush really could not get much going on the ground, totaling 27 yards on ten carries with a long of just ten yards. He did receive a goal line carry on the play before the Karney touchdown, and was used as a decoy on the ensuing score. His main contribution came in the passing game, with six receptions for 43 yards on eight targets. Bush did have two fumbles in the game, but the Saints were able to recover both of them.

Week 3 vs TEN - Bush was well contained by the Titans defense and was limited to one yard or less on five of his seven carries (though two of those carries were one yard TD runs). As usual, he was quite active in the passing game, catching six of eight balls sent his way (he was targeted two other times on plays negated by penalties). Bush’s mediocre stat lines are becoming disturbingly common, though the two TD’s saved him in this case.

The plan was for Bush to share time with Deuce McAllister; with McAllister pounding out the tough yardage while Bush tries to hit the home runs while catching a ton of passes lined up all over the field. Unfortunately, Deuce McAllister tore his ACL and is lost for the season.

So Bush will be asked to not only shoulder a bigger workload, but he’ll be asked to do so at a time when the Saints offense is in desperate need of a major facelift. Can the 2nd overall pick handle the job? And should fantasy owners be trying to take advantage of his slow start by making trade inquiries for him?

The question was asked on our message board forum: Is Reggie Bush an every down, 25 carry RB?

• 62.93% NO (146 votes)
• 37.07% YES (86 votes)

Some think Bush will be just fine, and point to the success of other smaller, multi-faceted backs in recent years:

H.K. says: Warrick Dunn has been pretty successful over the years as the primary ball carrier. Bush will be fine.

U. Mint says: If they can use him like Brian Westbrook, I think he will do well.

Another message board poster, twitch, worries about what he’s seen of Bush so far in his young career:

Until I see Bush running straight ahead, north and south, between the tackles, I’m not going to give Bush any love. We’ll find out what he’s made of at this point with Deuce out. It seems like all he ever does is run away from trouble. I’m not sure he’s gonna be real good at getting the tough yards, but he’s an amazing guy, so I really hope he figures it out. Bush with 25 carries and game AND catches? Seems like an injury waiting to happen, but I hope he stays healthy and blows up on the NFL.

Chaos Commish offers some perspective on Bush’s ability as a between-the-tackles runner:

The answer to this question is: “Yes Reggie can carry it 20 times between the tackles.” It isn’t a big deal. He carried 18 times in the first half against UCLA and had over 200 yards and 3 TDs, 14 of those carries were between the tackles and he was just warming up. Running that many times is about stamina and endurance, not durability. Durability is an issue of injury and Reggie has no history of that save a minor ankle here or there. Mewelde Moore was a workhorse at Tulane and could be one in Minnesota if asked to do so. More carries for any back means more chances to get hurt… any back. Norwood was a workhorse in the SEC and could be one in Atlanta if asked to be. Addai was never a workhorse at LSU, but it is no big deal for him to be one now. The whole notion of a workhorse back is way over thought. Most backs can be every down backs if their coaches ask them to. It is that simple. There are a few who seem limited, but just a few. There are a few who seem injury prone, but that’s impossible to predict, and Bush has no history or injury.

Where do you stand on the situation?  We’re a house divided on staff. Some of us (myself included) think the added workload will help; as many great backs need to get into a steady rhythm. Assuming the Saints offensive line issues can be corrected (and barring a major hidden injury, I don’t see why they can’t), I think the team is bound to improve from what’s been a woeful start. Bush’s year end numbers are likely to look different now than they would have; I don’t see him catching 88 passes like last year. But I could see him racking up at least 200 carries and 50-60 receptions. Even if you assume he averages a meager 3.8 yards per carry; Bush is still a good bet to put up top 10-12 numbers if he can hold up to the increased workload; particularly in PPR leagues.

Brian Griese has been named the Chicago Bears starting quarterback.

Far be it for me to suggest Lovie Smith, Jerry Angelo and the Bears Illuminati know less about the game of football than yours truly. But seriously folks, why did it take them so long to make this move? OK OK, let’s be fair, there were frankly a lot of reasons why sticking with Grossman to start the season made sense…he’s younger than Brian Griese, he has shown an ability to play quite well in spurts, and the Bears seemingly didn’t need Grossman to become a Pro Bowler in order to go deep into the playoffs.

But they certainly expected more than:

• 47 completions (15 per game)
• 89 attempts (~30 per game)
• 53% completion rate
• 500 yards (167 per game)
• 5.6 yards per attempt
• 1 TD
• 6 INTs

Regardless of whether you think Rex Grossman is a talented player or not; the simple fact is the Bears have finally decided it’s time to turn the reins over to 32 year old Brian Griese.

Griese has been a maddening fantasy quarterback.

1) Griese’s fantasy performance has fluctuated wildly, ranging from excellent (2000 and 2004) to decidedly unimpressive (2003 and 2005).

2) He’s missed a lot of time, having never played a full season even when he was Denver’s clear cut starter

So what should fantasy owners expect from Griese in Chicago?

1) He has an easy schedule — According to Clayton Gray’s strength of schedule, the Bears face one of the easiest remaining fantasy schedules against the pass.

2) He starts with a cream puff — The Eagles just dropped 56 on the Lions decimated secondary, if Griese can’t produce against them this week, it’s questionable whether he will all season

3) Soldier Field isn’t an easy place to play QB – The Chicago Bears home stadium has never been an advantageous place for quarterbacks

Should you run out and bid big free agent $$$ for Griese? I certainly wouldn’t. He’s been solid at times, but never over a full season. And given the difficulties of his surroundings, I think at best you can expect some up and down performances. There will be weeks (like this one), when I think Griese makes a compelling bye week or injury fill-in for your main starter, but he needs to show a lot before it’s worth gambling on him as a regular fantasy contributor.

Yesterday, we saw how the Chargers running game has declined through three games more than any team since the ‘96-’97 seasons. Well, San Diego, you’ve got some company. The 2006-2007 Saints are currently mirroring the Chargers’ fall from grace. No passing attack since 1996 has seen as large a decline in performance through three games as the ‘07 Saints.

What makes both situations so surprising is that each team kept its key personnel. The Saints brought back Brees, Bush, Colston and McAllister, and drafted Robert Meachem to replace Joe Horn. Sean Payton is still around, so we can’t use the Norv Turner excuse in New Orleans. The real culprit has been the abysmal play of the line, but who could have predicted that? Pro Bowl LT Jammal Brown is injured and playing like it, while RT Jon Stinchcomb is playing miserably. Brees has been sacked “only” four times, but he’s committed nine turnovers in three games in the face of constant pressure. So how much worse than last year are the Saints passing stats?

I calculated the adjusted yards per pass attempt for all passes thrown by QBs for every team from 1996-2006. For those that don’t remember what AY/A is,

Adjusted yards per attempt is defined as (passing yards + 10*(TD passes) - 45*(interceptions thrown)) / (pass attempts). It was devised (and the reasoning behind it explained) in a book called The Hidden Game of Football, by Carroll, Palmer, and Thorn.

Here are the top 20 passing teams from 1996-2006, sorted by adjusted yards per pass attempt.

 year	tm 	cmp	att	yard	td	int	AY/A
 2004	clt	353	526	4732	51	10	9.11
 2004	min	379	548	4717	39	11	8.42
 2000	ram	380	587	5492	37	23	8.22
 1999	ram	343	529	4586	42	15	8.19
 1998	atl	236	420	3722	28	15	7.92
 2006	phi	322	542	4298	31	 8	7.84
 2003	oti	312	496	3992	30	 9	7.84
 1998	min	327	534	4492	41	16	7.83
 2005	clt	348	515	4191	31	11	7.78
 2006	clt	362	557	4397	31	 9	7.72
 2004	sdg	287	446	3468	29	 7	7.72
 2001	ram	378	549	4852	36	22	7.69
 1998	sfo	346	555	4482	40	15	7.58
 2003	min	333	518	4169	32	13	7.54
 2006	nor	372	578	4626	27	12	7.54
 2000	den	354	568	4464	28	12	7.40
 2004	phi	336	546	4208	32	11	7.39
 2004	kan	370	561	4633	27	17	7.38
 2005	kan	317	507	4014	17	10	7.36
 2000	sfo	365	581	4404	32	10	7.36

For comparison’s sake, here are the worst 20 passing teams from 1996-2006:

 year	tm 	cmp	att	yard	td	int	AY/A
 1998	sdg	260	565	3092	10	34	2.94
 1997	nor	244	487	3012	12	35	3.20
 1999	crd	286	555	3059	11	30	3.28
 2005	sfo	202	387	2163	8	21	3.35
 2003	det	318	585	2967	17	24	3.52
 2000	cin	207	454	2219	6	14	3.63
 1998	phi	282	531	2733	7	18	3.75
 1999	phi	235	472	2405	18	18	3.76
 2001	cin	322	601	3291	12	25	3.80
 2001	car	314	578	3098	12	22	3.85
 2002	det	277	575	3168	19	25	3.88
 2005	chi	218	416	2183	11	15	3.89
 2006	rai	263	481	2850	7	23	3.92
 1996	nyg	237	458	2639	13	21	3.98
 2003	atl	230	457	2631	14	21	4.00
 2001	dal	209	411	2409	14	20	4.01
 2004	mia	308	585	3343	19	26	4.04
 2002	crd	291	548	3038	18	22	4.07
 1998	pit	273	488	2764	13	20	4.09
 2003	chi	271	515	2905	12	20	4.13

The 2006 Saints averaged 7.54 AY/A, but through three games in 2007, New Orleans is at just 2.86 AY/A. That difference of 4.67 (rounded) is the largest decline from Year N to Year N+1 (through three games) of any pairing since the 1996-1997 seasons:

 2006	nor	7.54	2.86	4.67
 1996	nor	4.74	0.44	4.29
 1998	sfo	7.58	3.29	4.29
 1997	pit	5.54	1.54	3.99
 2004	min	8.42	4.43	3.98
 1998	crd	5.50	1.58	3.93
 2005	rai	5.86	2.26	3.60
 2000	was	5.61	2.01	3.60
 2002	atl	6.43	2.95	3.49
 1998	nyj	7.13	3.67	3.46
 1999	sea	6.02	2.70	3.31
 2000	dal	4.41	1.14	3.27
 2005	pit	6.95	3.78	3.17
 1998	rav	5.62	2.46	3.16
 2001	ram	7.69	4.62	3.07
 2002	rav	5.64	2.60	3.04
 2002	chi	4.90	1.89	3.01
 2004	clt	9.11	6.14	2.97
 2001	det	5.13	2.21	2.92
 2005	tam	5.57	2.68	2.89

These Saints have some company, at least. The 1997 Saints had an absolutely miserable start thanks to Mike Ditka and Heath Shuler. Steve Young had one of the best seasons of all time for the 49ers in 1998, but was injured very early in 1999 and played poorly before that. The ‘98 Steelers? The beginning of the Kordell Stewart collapse. The 2005 Vikings? The beginning of the Daunte Culpepper collapse, although to be fair, he had quite a perch to fall from. The 1999 Cardinals? The Jake Plummer collapse. Suffice it to say, history doesn’t have anything pretty to say for Saints fans.

You might have noticed that Tom Brady’s having a pretty good start, but he wasn’t bad last year. While it’s one of the biggest improvements over the same era, it’s not even the sharpest increase in 2007:

 2000	atl	4.65	10.35	-5.70
 1998	ram	4.86	10.20	-5.34
 2004	pit	7.17	12.47	-5.30
 2006	tam	4.34	9.04	-4.70
 2005	sfo	3.35	7.81	-4.46
 2006	nwe	6.26	10.70	-4.44
 1998	was	5.92	10.16	-4.24
 2005	chi	3.89	7.99	-4.10
 1999	den	5.43	9.23	-3.80
 2001	car	3.85	7.49	-3.64
 2005	phi	5.18	8.72	-3.53
 2003	phi	6.03	9.54	-3.51
 2003	nyg	4.71	8.22	-3.51
 1996	rai	5.21	8.66	-3.45
 1998	sea	5.47	8.88	-3.41
 2000	sdg	4.13	7.33	-3.20
 1996	tam	4.39	7.59	-3.20
 1999	cle	5.12	8.31	-3.20
 2005	nyj	5.16	8.21	-3.05
 2006	dal	6.68	9.66	-2.98

The 2000 Falcons gave away over a third of their stats to Doug Johnson and Danny Kanell, who played terribly. Chris Chandler started off lights out in 2001, with 651 passing yards on 60 attempts through three games. The ‘99 Rams obviously added Kurt Warner, and Roethlisberger started off white hot in 2005, with 688 passing yards on 60 passing attempts through three games. And then you’ve got this year’s Bucs, who seem rejuvenated with 37-year old Jeff Garcia.

Which ugly start is more surprising, the ‘Aints passing attack or the ‘Bolts rushing attack? Which of those team seems more likely to turn it around? The Saints have lost McAllister for the season, while the Chargers main players are all healthy (although they lost their head coach and offensive coordinator). And will either of the first two picks in the Chargers 2001 draft go back to the Pro Bowl this year?

Last week, I wrote how LaDainian Tomlinson was off to a terrible start. He was averaging under two yards per carry, almost unheard of for an elite back over a 35-carry stretch. Well after three games, neither Tomlinson nor any of the San Diego running backs are rushing very well.

It was only last year that Charger running backs ran 461 times for 2,482 yards, an incredible 5.38 average yards per carry. Those last two numbers were the second highest of the past decade, behind only the the 2003 Packers (2,506 yards) and 1997 Lions (5.94 yards per carry). There were 343 teams in the NFL from 1996-2006, and Chargers running backs ran the ball better than almost every one of them. The Chargers also ranked 2nd in my quick “Yards over 3.0″ stat. Here are the top 10 teams, with the last column representing rushing yards accumulated over three yards per attempt:

 1997	det	396	2352	5.94	1164
 2006	sdg	461	2482	5.38	1099
 2003	gnb	473	2506	5.30	1087
 2003	rav	478	2452	5.13	1018
 2006	jax	430	2206	5.13	916
 2005	sea	475	2326	4.90	901
 2002	den	396	2052	5.18	864
 2006	nyg	426	2121	4.98	843
 1998	den	458	2213	4.83	839
 2005	kan	468	2242	4.79	838

This year, the Chargers rank dead last in the league in rushing yards per attempt by running backs, with 77 carries for just 198 yards, an ugly 2.57 yards per rush. Only the Chiefs at 2.80 join San Diego with a team RB average under three yards per carry. Here are the worst 15 teams in YPC average after three games played, from 1997-2007. The last column shows each team’s season ending YPC average by RBs:

 2000	cin	48	 93	1.94	4.34
 2004	mia	62	132	2.13	3.44
 2006	cle	48	104	2.17	3.27
 1999	crd	78	191	2.45	3.12
 2006	tam	50	123	2.46	3.68
 2000	buf	75	185	2.47	3.56
 2000	crd	61	151	2.48	3.69
 2006	nyj	73	187	2.56	3.40
 1997	jax	89	228	2.56	3.63
 2002	nyj	39	100	2.56	4.07
 2003	buf	72	185	2.57	3.94
 2007	sdg	77	198	2.57	 --
 2000	jax	78	201	2.58	4.22
 2005	nwe	74	192	2.59	3.51
 1998	gnb	79	208	2.63	3.52

Ironically enough, the worst team after three games ended up looking best of the group. Corey Dillon had 82 yards on 41 carries after three weeks, but would later set the single game rushing record (since broken) and rush for 200 yards in another game later that year. This was right in the middle of Dillon’s prime, when he was considered the most inconsistent RB in the NFL. That 2000 Bengals team was one of the ugliest worst passing teams in the last decade (more on this tomorrow). For the season the Bengals had a QB rating of 52.0, and in the first three games it was an ugly 39.8. That team was such an outlier, I’m not sure they provide a great comparison to any current team, let alone one with a Pro Bowl QB.

The other two teams to top 4.00 — the ‘02 Jets and ‘00 Jaguars — were, like the 2000 Bengals and the 2007 Chargers, carried by great RBs. The ‘02 Jets were a weird team, because they were outscored by 64 points in games 2 and 3 with Vinny Testaverde at QB, and became a different team after the emergence of Chad Pennington. The ‘00 Jags? Fred Taylor would rank 6th in the league in rushing yards and average 4.8 YPC, despite playing only 13 games. Any guesses as to which three games he missed?

The rest of the list is filled with teams that never really fixed things in the running game. I don’t think the ‘07 Chargers are anything like the ‘02 Jets or ‘00 Jaguars, because of the significant change in personnel, but they could conceivably match what the 1997 Bengals did. Certainly, though, most teams in the Chargers’ situation have failed to become even an average rushing team.

Before we go, let’s just take a second and recognize how badly the Chargers RBs have regressed this year. Of the 343 teams from 1996-2006, none of them have declined as much in performance after three games like the 2007 Chargers. Below is a table that shows each team’s Year N yards per carry average by RBs, that team’s Year N+1 yards per carry average by RBs after three games, and the difference:

 2006	sdg	5.38	2.57	2.81
 1999	cin	4.57	1.94	2.63
 2001	nyj	4.77	2.56	2.20
 1996	atl	4.52	2.65	1.87
 2004	nwe	4.43	2.59	1.83
 2004	nyj	4.72	2.89	1.82
 2002	buf	4.35	2.57	1.78
 2005	tam	4.21	2.46	1.75
 1997	gnb	4.33	2.63	1.69
 2005	cle	3.84	2.17	1.68
 2006	sfo	4.99	3.39	1.60
 2005	sea	4.90	3.31	1.58
 2006	jax	5.13	3.55	1.58
 2004	rav	4.33	2.77	1.57
 2001	nyg	4.39	2.83	1.56
 2006	kan	4.34	2.80	1.54
 2001	pit	4.57	3.06	1.51
 1999	jax	4.08	2.58	1.50
 2003	mia	3.61	2.13	1.48
 2005	chi	4.39	2.95	1.44

The difference between the Chargers and even the fourth biggest decliner is huge. Now obviously the Chargers had a high perch to fall from, but this steep decline is unprecedented in the past eleven years, and maybe much longer. As we’ve seen, the 2000 Bengals and 2002 Jets did turn it around, but I’m not sure if we can explain what’s going on in San Diego. The 2000 Bengals started off with rookie (and soon to be bust) Akili Smith at QB, after Jeff Blake had a good season in 1999. The 2002 Jets ran Curtis Martin just 24 times in the first three games; the 2007 Chargers have run LT 57 times already. This Chargers team returns all five offensive lineman and their superstar TE, along with two great RBs. And while it’s easy to blame Norv Turner, he’s always coached successful running games. It’s hard to see what’s going on in San Diego, but we’re seeing a decline of absolutely historic proportions so far. It’s as if Peyton Manning started playing like Andrew Walter. As I said last week, I’ll never be surprised to watch Tomlinson run for 150 yards on any Sunday, but right now, the 2007 Chargers RBs and offensive lineman have looked pitiful.

On the other side, let’s give some credit to the 2007 Cleveland Browns, who have the third largest increase using the same criteria:

 1998	car	3.64	6.57	-2.94
 2002	rav	4.25	6.75	-2.50
 2006	cle	3.27	5.71	-2.44
 1997	sfo	4.02	6.29	-2.28
 1996	min	3.74	5.87	-2.13
 2000	pit	4.03	6.00	-1.97
 2001	mia	3.38	5.33	-1.95
 2001	rai	3.61	5.51	-1.90
 1999	nyg	3.22	5.10	-1.88
 2003	oti	3.37	5.07	-1.70
 2002	chi	3.42	5.05	-1.63
 2001	crd	3.51	5.14	-1.63
 2002	car	3.59	5.20	-1.61
 1996	cin	3.68	5.08	-1.39
 1996	tam	3.27	4.65	-1.38
 1997	sdg	3.59	4.97	-1.38
 1996	chi	3.78	5.10	-1.32
 1999	phi	3.92	5.23	-1.31
 2001	min	3.67	4.97	-1.31
 1997	crd	3.19	4.48	-1.28

Some people - very often, fantasy owners - have no patience. They want to see QBs blast off from the starting gates and tear up the league, right away beginning week 1. But it doesn’t always happen that way. When a player is learning a new offense (like Matt Leinart in Arizona or Trent Green in Miami), there is a process of becoming comfortable that needs to be gone through - Joey Harrington in Atlanta gives us a fine example of a player that is increasingly becoming comfortable in his team’s offense. Let’s look at his first 3 games from this season (his first 3 in coach Petrino’s system).

• Week 1: 23/32 for 199 yards passing, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions
• Week 2: 12/20 for 200 yards passing, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions
• Week 3: 31/44 for 361 yards passing, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions

That’s a pretty good looking growth curve from where I sit. Harrington has cut down on the turnovers (0 interceptions over the last 2 weeks), and this week he was sacked just once (after taking 13 sacks in the first 2 games) - Harrington got the ball out quickly, and showed good evasiveness the few times he was pressured by the Panthers, side-stepping rushers and delivering catch able balls to the receivers.

Another positive to note about Harrington and the Falcons’ offense is his continuing, growing rapport with Roddy White (7/127/1 receiving last week, after hauling in 4/29/0 during week 1 and 4/81/0 in week 2). With a bonafide #1 WR and the All-Pro TE Alge Crumpler (plus Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood to catch balls out of the backfield), it appears that Harrington will go into battle with a respectable set of targets each week.

If Harrington is on your league’s waiver wire and you have a need at QB #2 or as a bye-week player for your starter, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick him up.

First off, let me say upfront that I am not a fan of Randy Moss. I was appalled by his slacker, pouty attitude while in Oakland and I don’t think he’s a truly professional athlete in the way the Jerry Rice or Curtis Martin were truly professionals during their careers.

However, that said I must report a jaw-dropping statistic that I noticed this week while researching the Buffalo/New England matchup coming up on Sunday, using Dr. Doug Drinen’s Final Targets tool.

Randy Moss has been targeted by Tom Brady 18 times so far this year, with 9 opportunities to make catches in each of the first 2 weeks. So far, he has hauled in 17/288/3 - that’s 94.4% of the passes that have come his way, folks. WOW! Talk about plugged in - right now Moss and Brady are in a phenomenal zone that few QB-WR combos reach.

We’ll see how long the honeymoon period lasts, but right now these two are almost automatic. Start ‘em if you’ve got ‘em.

In a special mailbag episode, Cecil and Sigmund answer the burning fantasy football questions posted by the audience on our message boards. Heading into Week 3, we respond to queries about the Andre Johnson knee injury, the disappointing seasons of Laurence Maroney and Maurice Jones-Drew, waiver wire rookies to keep an eye on, and more!

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Tony Romo has more than lived up to expectations through the first two weeks, making those who targeted him as their QB1 feel like they hit the lottery. And while there’s absolutely no reason to think he’s going to stop putting up excellent numbers for the remainder of the season, there has been some discussion about whether or not Romo should be on your bench THIS week as he faces the Chicago Bears.

My advice: Depends on what other QBs are on your roster. If you drafted Romo and then quickly followed up with your 2nd QB (as I did in many leagues), I would seriously consider benching him. Here are three QBs that I’m benching Romo for in leagues I’m involved with:

1. Jon Kitna, DET (@ PHI) — The Eagles secondary is banged up and the Lions throw with aplomb
2. Ben Roethlisberger (vs. SF) — Ben is, in my view, a top-10 fantasy QB this year and a solid start most weeks. He gets the 49ers at home, and given how dominant the team has been, it’s hard not to like his chances
3. Jake Delhomme, CAR (@ ATL) — The Falcons are in complete disarray, and Delhomme has looked great through two weeks.

On our message boards, the debate rages on. Sweetness34 (a Bears fan) thinks Romo will be a good fantasy starter, but for a surprising reason:

Romo will be forced to throw because I see the Bears lighting up that Cowboys secondary next week. Laugh all you want but Grossman can throw the deep ball with the best of them and the Cowboys cannot defend the long ball. Berrian will be productive on Sunday night for sure. Also, Olsen should be back and expect the Bears to feature Hester more on O in a nationally televised game. Should be a good game.

LHUCKS argues that the Bears loss of safety Mike Brown makes their secondary susceptible to good passers:

Bears lose Mike Brown = good things for Romo and company. You can beat the Bears in the air.

Boulder Bob thinks the Bears defensive front will be disruptive enough to limit the Cowboys passing game:

The Bears are banking on their defensive-line dominating the Cowboy o-line. Against the vast majority of NFL teams, the Bears can pressure the QB with 4/5 guys, and I think they will be able to do this versus the Cowboys. I thought Romo did a great job last week escaping the Dolphin pressure, but I don’t think Dallas can count on that this weekend. 200 (yards) and 2 (TD passes) is probably the ceiling for Romo, and color me very impressed with him if he equals/exceeds these numbers.

What do you think?

Two weeks ago, every intelligent football fan on the planet would have said that LaDainian Tomlinson was the best running back in the NFL. In 2007 LT led the league in rushing, set the all time single-season touchdown record, and led the league in the famous yards over 3.0 statistic. So surely it is a surprise to all that through two weeks, Tomlinson currently ranks last among all RBs in yards per carry in 2007.

Tomlinson has played two tough defenses (Chicago and New England), and we’re still dealing with a pretty small sample size. Those arguments would make a lot of sense if say, Tomlinson was averaging 2.9 yards per carry this year. But he’s averaging 1.9 YPC right now, which puts him in the company of Derrick Blaylock 2006, Lamar Gordon 2004 and Ciatrick Fason 2005. Needless to say, I think there’s cause to worry.

I wondered if maybe things just look bad because it’s the first two weeks, and not weeks eight and nine. I looked at all RBs from 1995 to 2006, to see how many had: (a) had 35 or more carries in consecutive games, and (b) averaged 2.00 or fewer yards per carry in those games. Well, only five RBs in those twelve seasons met those criteria:

Edgerrin James	2006	crd	1.82	3.44
Kevan Barlow	2005	sfo	1.91	3.30
Quentin Griffin	2004	den	1.97	3.66
Eddie George	2001	oti	1.78	2.98
Darick Holmes	1996	buf	2.00	3.02

The last column shows how many YPC they averaged in the full season, and the second to last shows how many they averaged in their miserable two game slump. I love Tomlinson as much as the next guy, but that’s a pretty miserable group of players to be paired with. Barlow, Griffin and Holmes were busts that had short spurts of success. James and George, while each would earn four trips to Hawaii, were miserable in those seasons and shells of their former selves. The idea that the best spin we could put on Tomlinson’s 2007 season is “hey, he could do what Edgerrin James did in 2006″ isn’t very comforting to Chargers fans.

Let’s expand things a little bit, though. Here’s a list of RBs with 30+ carries that averaged 2.20 YPC or fewer over consecutive games during the same span:

Larry Johnson		2006	kan	2.00	4.30
Warrick Dunn		1998	tam	2.09	4.19
Marshall Faulk		1998	clt	2.13	4.07
Mario Bates		1995	nor	2.00	3.90
Chris Fuamatu-Ma’afala	2001	pit	2.17	3.78
Mike Alstott		2002	tam	1.90	3.75
Quentin Griffin		2004	den	1.97	3.66
Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1996	mia	1.81	3.64
Jamal Anderson		2000	atl	1.90	3.63
Kevin Jones		2005	det	2.08	3.57
Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1998	mia	1.97	3.56
Jamal Anderson		1997	atl	2.03	3.46
Edgerrin James		2006	crd	2.10	3.44
Edgerrin James		2006	crd	1.82	3.44
Kevan Barlow		2004	sfo	2.20	3.37
Kevan Barlow		2005	sfo	1.91	3.30
Darick Holmes		1996	buf	2.00	3.02
Darick Holmes		1996	buf	2.08	3.02
Arlen Harris		2003	ram	2.14	3.00
Eddie George		2001	oti	1.78	2.98
Marshall Faulk		1996	clt	2.15	2.96
James Jackson		2001	cle	2.18	2.84
LeShon Johnson		1999	nyg	2.09	2.34
Lamar Gordon		2004	mia	1.74	1.83

The above list is sorted by the right column, yards per carry average in the full season. And yes, just a year ago, Larry Johnson suffered through a miserable stretch in weeks five and six. I suspect people will make of this what they like; if they own Tomlinson in a fantasy league, they’ll accurately point out that superstar RBs like Johnson and Marshall Faulk (1998 version) had down games and still were studs. Conversely, if you don’t believe Tomlinson can turn it around, you can point out that he’s hit a level of ineptitude rarely matched, and by some of the worst RBs in modern memory. Even when Faulk did it (1996 version), he had by far the worst season of his career, and maybe Tomlinson is headed for his own down year.

It’s easy to suggest that Tomlinson will be fine, and I’d never say otherwise. He’s just too talented for me to put it print that Tomlinson won’t be a stud. But I am concerned by the lack of comparables in recent history. I suspected that there’d be several star RBs that endured bad stretches, but really, there’s very little to go on. Just three of the 24 RBs that have looked as bad at LT has looked averaged 4.00 YPC that season. Tomlinson has been flat out bad, so far, and who knows when he’ll turn it back around. And while New England and Chicago are tough, Larry Johnson averaged 3.4 YPC against the Bears (LT 1.5), and Thomas Jones averaged 3.0 YPC against New England (LT 2.4). And it’s not like we haven’t seen the old Tomlinson run all over good defenses or the Patriots, before.

On the other hand, Tomlinson has had some ugly moments over the years. He had 17 carries for 7 yards in a game against the Eagles in 2005. He had a five game run in the middle of 2004 where he averaged just 2.88 yards per carry. Previously, his lowest YPC averages in a two game stretch were 2.24, 2.69, 2.69, 2.78 and 2.86. All I know for now, is 1.94 certainly sticks out. It’s the worst two-game stretch of his 99 game career. His offensive line has performed significantly worse than they did in ‘06, and Tomlinson himself hasn’t looked as good, either. At this point, I’d feel a lot better about his future chances if he said he had the flu the past two weeks and just didn’t tell anyone.

This was inevitable. Byron Leftwich has signed a 2-year, $7mm deal with the Atlanta Falcons. What Falcons fans need to ask themselves is, why did it take their GM this long to figure out what every football fan with half a brain knew months ago? Joey Harrington is NOT the answer. He may be a good guy, he may try hard, but under center he’s a surefire ticket to fantasy armageddon.

The question becomes, can Leftwich improve what ails the Falcons? I find it hard to imagine the offense can get any worse; but Leftwich is the definition of immobile. The Falcons line has allowed 13 sacks in 2 games; and for Harrington’s many flaws, he’s not typically someone who takes a lot of sacks. So now what happens when Byron Leadfoot, er, I mean Leftwich inevitably takes over in a few weeks?

Good times indeed, somehow I think Bobby Petrino will be singing REUNITED AND IT FEELS SO GOOD with Brian Brohm a season from now.

For those not biblically inclined, Methuselah was allegedly the oldest man mentioned in the Old Testament, living to the ripe old age of 969. For all intents and purposes, the Falcons have re-signed the NFL’s version of Methuselah; placekicker Morten Andersen. Andersen returns to the Falcons to replace Matt Prater, who went 1-for-4 in the first two games of the season.

For those not keeping score at home, here are some fun facts about the NFL’s oldest player:

• 47 years old
• The NFL’s all-time leading scorer
• Played for 6 NFL teams (Saints, Falcons, Giants, Chiefs, Vikings)
• 7-time Pro Bowler
• Member of the 1980s All-Decade Team
• Member of the 1990s All-Decade Team

In case you can’t appreciate how old Andersen is, consider:

• Andersen is older than a dozen NFL head coaches
• He was drafted in the same year (1982) as Marcus Allen and Mike Munchak
• He was drafted a year earlier than John Elway, Eric Dickerson and Jim Kelly

Week two of the NFL season saw many players integral to fantasy football nicked up …. with some worse than others.

This is by no means an exhaustive list but shows how widespread the injuries were for skill position players.

QBs:

• Marc Bulger hurt is knee and ribs in week two. He should be ok, but keep an eye on the situation. Make sure to pick Gus up if the news changes on the severity.
• Tarvaris Jackson injured his groin in a hard fought lss to the Detroit Lions. He was having a terrible game as it was. Brooks Bollinger is the backup.
• Steve McNair also has a groin injury. He missed Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. His replacement, Kyle Boller, player well. In fact, many in Baltimore think Boller might give the Ravens a better chance to go far in the playoffs.
• Chad Pennington hurt his ankle in week one against the New England Patriots. He tried to warm up on it but Kellen Clemens started in his stead and played admirably for his first career start. This could be a budding QB controversy.

RBs:

• Rookie Ahmad Bradshaw, who is primarily a kick returner at this time, hurt his elbow in the game against the Packers. Combine this with the Jacobs injury and the Giants are very thin at running back.
• Vernand Morency is still battling knee problems and could be out even longer.

WRs:

• Greg Jennings practiced all week in hopes of playing but his injured hammy could not go. Now, he will sit all week in practice and should be a dreaded game time decision.
• Andre Johnson sprained his PCL (knee) in the week two game. He has been playing so well that the MRI results will be very important.
• Patrick Crayton, playing instead of injured Terry Glenn, broke his finger in the game against the Dolphins. It looked nasty. He went back in the game but was held without a catch.
• Plaxico Burress re-injured his ankle in the week two game against the Packers. With the way Plax has been playing, this is a situation to monitor.
• Burress’ teammate, Steve Smith, fractured his shoulder blade. He should be back in around a month.
• Troy Williamson injured his hammy against the Lions.

Chris Brown darted his way to 175 yards rushing on 19 carries in Tennessee’s Week One victory over Jacksonville. As a result, Brown was the top waiver wire priority in just about every league he wasn’t already rostered; and more than a few people inserted him into their starting lineups this week.

The result? 12 carries for 34 yards and zero touchdowns.

Now let’s compare Brown’s tallies with LenDale White:

• Week One: Brown (19 for 175, 0 TDs) vs. White (18 for 66, 0 TDs)
• Week Two: Brown (12 for 34, 0 TDs) vs. White (15 for 64, 1 TD)
• Total:  Brown (31 for 209, 0 TDs) vs. White (33 for 130, 1 TD)

White has been the more consistent back in the first two weeks, and his TD came at the goal-line. But is White the clear goal-line back?

Goal-Line Carries, Tennessee (Through Week Two)

• LenDale White: 4 rushes, 1 TD
• Chris Brown: 2 rushes, 0 TDs
• Vince Young: 2 rushes, 1 TD

The bottom line is that despite Brown’s huge Week One, this remains very much a RBBC situation. And unless you think the Titans defense is going to be stout enough to allow the team to rush 30-40 times per game, there are going to be very subpar weeks for both of these guys.

If you raced out to grab Brown thinking he was going to grab the brass ring and displace White from an even split; you might want to try to trade him away before the rest of your league realizes your mistake.

As a writer/analyst for Footballguys.com, I have the good fortune to be required to watch as many pro football games as is humanly possible. Every highlight show I can squeeze into Sunday. And so forth.

The above is what makes Monday Night Football such a true pleasure each week. With all day Monday to digest the Sunday action, and plenty of time to read about the featured game on Monday night, a person can go into the game dialed in and ready to really soak up just this one game! And what a great game this one looks like it should be, by the way!

Donovan McNabb shook some of the rust off last week and enters this game with a full complement of receivers (reports are that L.J. Smith’s groin has improved a lot since last week and he should be more involved in the game this week). The Redskins have a two back rotation (Portis/Betts) reminiscent of Joe Gibbs’ previous tenure/glory days with Washington, and they were highly effective week 1.

So, the aerial shenanigans of Andy Reid’s Eagles vs. the Gibbs’ grind-it-out Redskins in a divisional contest at Lincoln Financial Field - what joy, what rapture!

At least, football fans everywhere are hoping for a hard-fought, quality contest.

Enjoy MNF everyone!

Terry Glenn had a scope this week in hope of salvaging part of his season. The other option was season-ending microfracture surgery. Glenn took the scope option with the HOPE to play again this year. This is a very slim hope. That is what needs to be said, but is not by the Dallas-area media outlets. The Cowboys want Glenn to return. Glenn wants to return. But, that does not mean it will happen.

Even after the scope, there is still a very good chance that Glenn will require the microfracture surgery as well. This is the time to go pick up Patrick Crayton cheap if you can while there is still “hope” that Glenn will return.

If you own Glenn in dynasty leagues, this “hope” might give you the chance to sell Glenn. Very few NFL players come back from microfracture surgery … much less ones that are Glenn’s age.

If you want up-to-the-second information on the injury situations for each game today, you can visit our Shark Pool message board forums where we will be keeping things updated in real-time.

In the meantime, here are a few of the key fantasy injury situations you need to know:

Quarterbacks (QBs)

QB Eli Manning, NYG: Manning’s injured shoulder has been a subject of much debate. As expected, he’s sat out of practice so far this week but neither he nor the team have ruled out his suiting up. We’re recommending you err on the side of caution and go with another QB this week. It seems foolish for the Giants to risk further injury by rushing him back, but then again no one ever accused Tom Coughlin of being a genius.

QB Josh McCown, OAK: McCown put up big fantasy numbers in garbage time last week, but broke a bone in his index finger and was thought to be out for this week. He now looks like a game-time decision.

QB Steve McNair, BAL: McNair is officially a “Game Time Decision” and, much like the other QBs on the injury list, is probably best left on your bench unless you’re absolute desperate.

QB Chad Pennington, NYJ: Pennington hasn’t been officially declared out this week, but several reports have 2nd year Kellen Clemens getting the start. Much like with Manning, we wouldn’t recommend starting Pennington this week even if he gets the surprising green light.

Running Backs (RBs)

RB Jesse Chatman, MIA: Jesse Chatman saw plenty of action in Week One, much to the dismay of Ronnie Brown owners. But he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury, and looks unlikely to play this weekend. Chatman’s loss could make Ronnie Brown a suitable starter if you’ve got no better option.

RB Vernand Morency, GB: Morency returned to practice but his strained right knee “flared up on him” according to HC Mike McCarthy. He’s now looking like an unlikely play this week.

RB Cadillac Williams, TB: Just a day or two ago it seemed the Cadillac was heading back into the shop. But he’s been able to practice this week and said his ribs feel good. He now appears to be, at worst, a game-time decision.
Wide Receivers (WR)

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN: Housh missed practice on Wednesday with knee pain but practiced fully on Thursday. He should be good to go against the Browns.

WR Greg Jennings, GB: Greg Jennings participated in Wednesday and Thursday practices, but only on a partial basis. He remains a game-time decision.

  
WR Terry Glenn, DAL: Glenn had another surgical procedure on his knee this week and his return for the season is in question. Either way, he’s out this week and for a considerable period of time forward.

Tight Ends (TE)

TE Antonio Gates, SD: Gates surprised a lot of fantasy owners by missing Wednesday’s practice with a sore back. But he participated fully on Thursday, including blocking drills and should be OK for this weekend.

Have a question about a player that’s not listed here? If you’re a subscriber, you can visit our Breaking News/Sunday Updates section. If you’re not yet a subscriber, you can jump into the Shark Pool where we and other contributors will be keeping things updated 24×7.

The latest brouhaha over the Patriots video-taping scandal has invited a lot of debate all across the country. As you might suspect, our Shark Pool has been knee deep in discussions; with a majority of people leveraging their pre-existing disdain for the Pats to act as though this was the most egregious act of cheating since the Black Sox scandal. Others, Pats fans and those less prone to hyperbole, are in a decidedly different camp.

Regardless of where you sit, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell came down with his “punishment” today:

• $500K fine for HC Bill Belichick [the most Goodell could fine him]
• $250K fine to the Patriots organization
• Loss of next year’s (2008) 1st round draft pick [if they make the playoffs]
  • Loss of 2nd and 3rd round picks if the Pats fail to make the playoffs

The only component of this punishment that’s really punitive is the loss of a 1st round draft choice. Yes, $500K is no small amount of money but Belichick makes millions of dollars a year in salary; and has sponsorship, speaking engagements, personal appearances and other types of ancillary income to deal with the monetary loss.

So assuming the Patriots make the playoffs, is the loss of one 1st round draft pick significant?

There seems to be a school of thought who argue that the Patriots aren’t really losing much because they always draft very late in the 1st round; ergo they aren’t in position to grab elite players. Yet, history tells us that good organizations are just as likely to find quality players in the late 1st round as they are the early first round. Let’s take a look at the Patriots 1st round picks under Bill Belichick:

• 2000 — No first round pick
• 2001 — Richard Seymour (6th overall)
• 2002 — Daniel Graham (21st overall)
• 2003 — Ty Warren (13th overall)
• 2004 — Vince Wilfork (21st overall)
• 2004 — Ben Watson (32nd overall)
• 2005 — Logan Mankins (32nd overall)
• 2006 — Laurence Maroney (21st overall)
• 2007 — Brandon Meriweather (24th overall)

Does anyone still want to argue the Patriots don’t get SIGNIFICANT value from their first round picks? By my calculation, they’ve never whiffed on a 1st round pick [how many NFL teams can say that over the same span?] and have fortified key positions.

• All three of their starting defensive lineman were drafted in the 1st round, including Seymour, the team’s best front seven player
• Their current and former starting tight ends were rostered with 1st round picks
• Their starting tailback and one of their starting guards were recent 1st rounders

Another point to consider, is that New England is entitled to San Francisco’s 1st round pick this year because of a trade last year (which the 49ers used on T Joe Staley). I don’t think anyone expects the 49ers to have a better record than the Pats, which means when the dust settles, even with the loss of their own 1st round pick, the Pats are in line for a pretty darn good 1st rounder anyway.

So was the punishment stiff enough? I really can’t say; but I can say that a loss of a 1st rounder equates to the loss of a very good player based on the Pats drafting history. Personally, I would still like to have seen the team lose Belichick for a game or two; to me, that’s a punishment that would impact THIS SEASON which is exactly when the infraction occurred. But I’m not the NFL commissioner…yet.

I’m a money manager by day, so the financial aspects of the NFL are as fascinating to me as what happens on the field. Forbes just released its annual report on the value of American sports franchises and the Dallas Cowboys have overtaken the Washington Redskins as the most valuable NFL team; ending an 8-year streak for Daniel Snyder’s squad.

NFL Team Values (Forbes.com)

While Dallas is getting the headlines, I’m more interested in which franchises are generating the most operating profits and which have the least leverage (i.e., debt); both incredibly important measures of the team’s respective financial health.

Forbes provides each team’s annual revenues and their operating income. Let’s compare how the team’s rank in terms of operating margin (defined as operating income/revenues) and it paints a decidedly different picture.

The Cowboys are among the bottom third of the league in terms of operating margin, with a meager $4.3mm in operating income. Sometimes the label “most valuable franchise” can be really misleading. Compare that to the team they supposedly knocked off the top spot, the Redskins. Washington absolutely demolishes the rest of the league in total revenues ($312mm) and has a fantastic 21% operating margin. In other words, for all that money Daniel Snyder wastes, er, I mean spends on big ticket free agents, he’s got more profits to spare than anyone else in the league. Other interesting observations:

• Al Davis’ on-field product may be a laughing stock, but he’s still turning a tidy profit; generating a better margin on his revenue base than anyone else in the league
• Buffalo and Kansas City, despite being considered small market teams, rakes in the profits
• While Cleveland fans may never forgive Art Modell for moving the team to Baltimore, the new Browns franchise is generating a much better return than the Ravens are; so there’s some poetic justice
• The Colts, despite winning the Super Bowl, are hemorrhaging money
• The Falcons, despite being run by Arthur Blank [considered an uber savvy corporate magnate], are already struggling to turn a profit and that’s before the fallout from Michael Vick takes hold
• The Vikings have a legitimate gripe with their current financial situation; and either need the city to finally give in to a new stadium deal or must consider moving

D.J. Hackett was on many people’s radar as a potential breakout sleeper this year, but he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week One and looks to be out for a fair amount of time.

“(Hackett is) going to be down for awhile, but I can’t tell you how long,” Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren said. “Those things are very unpredictable. The basketball ankle, everybody by now knows the difference - can be a week or two. This typically with all the ligaments up higher on the shin a little bit, typically is longer - in some instances, can be very, very long. The doctors can’t even tell me right now. Fortunately, our depth at wide receiver is pretty good.”

Hackett’s absence presents an interesting dilemma because both Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson are available on waivers in many leagues.

First things first, Nate Burleson is going to “start” at split end. Burleson practiced at the split end position all preseason, and split time with Hackett many times. Bobby Engram will remain the team’s slot receiver.

But in Seattle’s case, “starting” may not equate to having the most fantasy value. Engram’s role as the slot receiver is misleading because Seattle utilizes 3-WR sets as much as any team in the league, if not more. Engram has a long history with Matt Hasselbeck and is a proven playmaker.

Looking at the Week One target data (sub required) doesn’t really shed much light on the situation:

In most weeks, you can be sure the team won’t target their fullback more than their wideouts, but it’s clear Hasselbeck is going to throw to whoever is open.

With Engram, you can pretty much pencil in 50 receptions and 600 yards if he remains healthy. In a PPR league, you could do worse than have him as your WR3 in bye week situations. In Burleson, you have a much higher upside but also a much lower downside. Is he capable of approximating his 1,000-yard form while in Minnesota? Time will tell.

For my money, Nate Burleson is the guy I would rather roster for the tail end of my roster. When you’re dealing with your 5th or 6th wideout, my personal preference is to swing for the fences. Engram may put up better full year numbers, but he’s not a guy I could see surprising us with a huge season; Burleson could in that offense.

Just a quick note to everyone, we’ve added a polling widget to the blog that should be a lot of fun. If you’re reading this through an RSS reader, you’ll need to visit the site to see the polls. But it’s AJAX-based and you can vote whether you’re a registered contributor or just an anonymous passer-by. I’m not sure how often we’ll change the topic of the poll but all results will be archived and it will primarily be driven by the news most relevant to fantasy football circles on that given day.

FYI: The first poll asks, Will Derrick Ward (NYG) or Chris Brown (TEN) score more fantasy points this season?