Kevin Jones on the PUP: Thoughts on Tatum Bell & T.J. Duckett
In a move we’ve been expecting for some time, the Lions will keep Kevin Jones on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list; which will keep him out of at least the first 5 games (six weeks includes the Lions bye) of the regular season. Jones simply hasn’t been able to recover from his Lisfranc injury. According to Tom Kowalski, the doctors believe Jones’ is healing and on track for a full recovery; but it makes no sense to rush him back.
If he comes back by midseason; Jones would be an interesting waiver wire pickup. But unless you’re in deep leagues (i.e., 20+ rounds), it is hard to justify spending a roster spot on him now, knowing that you won’t have him for a major part of the fantasy regular season (which usually runs 13- to 14-weeks).
So the question becomes, what should fantasy owners do about the Lions’ backup RBs. For the record, here are the RBs currently on the Lions’ depth chart (note: 75-man roster):
- Tatum Bell
- T.J. Duckett
- Avieon Cason
- Brian Calhoun
- Anthony Sherrell
- Kevin Jones
For the sake of fantasy redrafts, let’s agree that only Bell and Duckett are even worth discussing currently. Cason and Calhoun are battling for a roster spot, but neither is likely to see the field much save for occasional 3rd-down duties and, of course, special teams.
Tatum Bell
| YR | TM | G | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | TRG | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT | RANK | VBD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | DEN | 14 | 75 | 396 | 5.3 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 80 | 16.0 | 0 | 66 | 48 | 0 |
| 2005 | DEN | 15 | 173 | 921 | 5.3 | 8 | 28 | 18 | 104 | 5.8 | 0 | 151 | 22 | 7 |
| 2006 | DEN | 13 | 233 | 1025 | 4.4 | 2 | 31 | 24 | 115 | 4.8 | 0 | 126 | 31 | 0 |
| CAREER | TOT | 42 | 481 | 2342 | 4.9 | 13 | 66 | 47 | 299 | 6.4 | 0 | 343 | 7 |
Bell was traded to Detroit (along with George Foster) for CB Dre Bly. While the Broncos upgraded by bringing in Travis Henry, Bell isn’t someone completely ill equipped to produce if given the opportunity. He’s never proven himself durable (or well rounded) enough to carry a full workload, but he’s had moments of solid play.
As of today, Tatum Bell has an ADP of 72nd overall (32nd RB); which puts him in the 6th-7th round mix in 10- and 12-team drafts.
That’s certainly not a big price to pay for a potential starting tailback, but there are some risk factors you need to consider:
- OC Mike Martz is pass happy; it’s one thing to call running plays when Marshall Faulk is in his prime, it’s entirely another when it’s Tatum Bell
- Tatum Bell fumbles; Bell has 8 fumbles in the last two season (2 as a receiver)
- Bell is a terrible goal-line back; Bell has only 3 rushing TDs in 17 goal-line rushing attempts
- Denver’s system inflates RB yards-per rush; Broncos RBs have averaged almost a full yard per carry less when they play for another team which suggests Bell could fall well short of his career 4.9 yards per rush
Bottom Line: Bell probably has the Detroit starting job locked up for at least the first six weeks, and it’s hard to argue against drafting an NFL starting RB in the 6th or 7th round. That said, there are plenty of reasons to think he could be one of the LEAST effective starters on any given Sunday.
T.J. Duckett
| YR | TM | G | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | TRG | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT | RANK | VBD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | ATL | 12 | 130 | 507 | 3.9 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 | 81 | 42 | 0 |
| 2003 | ATL | 16 | 197 | 779 | 4.0 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 94 | 8.5 | 0 | 153 | 21 | 11 |
| 2004 | ATL | 13 | 104 | 509 | 4.9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 100 | 36 | 0 |
| 2005 | ATL | 14 | 121 | 380 | 3.1 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 0 | 92 | 37 | 0 |
| 2006 | WAS | 11 | 38 | 132 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 27 | 79 | 0 |
| CAREER | TOT | 66 | 590 | 2307 | 3.9 | 33 | 36 | 31 | 249 | 8.0 | 0 | 453 | 11 |
Duckett spent four years in Atlanta where he was sometimes the Thunder to Warrick Dunn’s lightning. But he could never quite break out of the backup role and moved onto Washington last year; where he was an outright bust. As you can see from the games played, Duckett has had his fair share of injuries; and his size/conditioning have often been called into question. The only thing that should scream out at you, though, is his TD totals.
Duckett has 33 rushing touchdowns in five seasons, and had a stretch in Atlanta where he averaged 9 TDs/season (2003-2005). This gets at the one facet of the game where Duckett has proven himself time and again; the GOAL LINE.
- 24 of Duckett’s 33 (72%) career rushing TDs were at the goal-line (5 yards or less)
- Duckett has converted better than 50% of his career goal-line attempts
- Duckett’s goal-line conversion rate ranks 7th-best among qualified RBs since 2002
Goal Line TD Conversion Rate (2002-2006)
| Rank | First | Last | Rushes | TDs | Conv% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Priest | Holmes | 75 | 45 | 60.0% |
| 2 | Shaun | Alexander | 98 | 56 | 57.1% |
| 3 | Larry | Johnson | 56 | 30 | 53.6% |
| 4 | LaDainian | Tomlinson | 107 | 57 | 53.3% |
| 5 | Kevan | Barlow | 32 | 17 | 53.1% |
| 6 | Stacey | Mack | 21 | 11 | 52.4% |
| 7 | T.J. | Duckett | 47 | 24 | 51.1% |
| 8 | Jerome | Bettis | 62 | 31 | 50.0% |
| 9 | Ahman | Green | 40 | 20 | 50.0% |
| 10 | Stephen | Davis | 51 | 24 | 47.1% |
| 11 | Brandon | Jacobs | 30 | 14 | 46.7% |
| 12 | Corey | Dillon | 73 | 34 | 46.6% |
| 13 | Thomas | Jones | 43 | 20 | 46.5% |
| 14 | Willie | Parker | 22 | 10 | 45.5% |
| 15 | Emmitt | Smith | 22 | 10 | 45.5% |
| 16 | Marshall | Faulk | 38 | 17 | 44.7% |
| 17 | Travis | Henry | 50 | 22 | 44.0% |
| 18 | Eddie | George | 41 | 18 | 43.9% |
| 19 | Moe | Williams | 39 | 17 | 43.6% |
| 20 | Steven | Jackson | 37 | 16 | 43.2% |
| 21 | Rudi | Johnson | 56 | 24 | 42.9% |
| 22 | Domanick | Williams | 35 | 15 | 42.9% |
| 23 | Tiki | Barber | 56 | 23 | 41.1% |
| 24 | Jamal | Lewis | 64 | 26 | 40.6% |
| 25 | Zack | Crockett | 44 | 17 | 38.6% |
As of today, T.J. Duckett has an ADP of 196th overall (RB58); which puts him as a very late round pick in 10- and 12-team drafts; and a waiver wire option in smaller size leagues.
Bottom Line: Duckett is the ultimate low-risk, late round flier. If you accept that a portion of your draft day roster is going to be churned over during the season anyway, I’m always an advocate of going for long shot, high upside picks at the tail end of my draft. While Duckett has given no indication he will contend for a big workload in Kevin Jones’ absence, he is one of the best goal-line backs in the league while Bell is one of the worst. If you’re in a TD-heavy league or have rosters that go 20+ players; I think Duckett is a much savvier pickup than Tatum Bell would be in the 6th or 7th round.
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