Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3
OK, I get why people THINK they’re getting value with Anthony Gonzalez. Everyone remembers that fateful 2004 season when the Colts had not one, not two, but THREE 1,000-yard receivers.
- Marvin Harrison: 86 receptions for 1,113 yards and 15 TDs
- Reggie Wayne: 77 receptions for 1,210 yards and 12 TDs
- Brandon Stokley: 68 receptions for 1,077 yards and 10 TDs
But let’s not lose sight of the fact Peyton Manning threw 49 touchdown passes that season! That was a crazy year where the Colts passing game was running at an otherworldly level.
Now, let’s turn our attention to Gonzalez. He’s a sure-handed, productive receiver out of Ohio State University. While he’s not a burner, he seems like a younger version of the guy he’s replacing, Brandon Stokley (Stokley is now a Denver Bronco). But people seem to be forgetting three very important things:
- He’s a rookie…for every Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin, there are a dozen rookie receivers that don’t produce much as they learn the ropes. The Colts offense is among the most complex in the league, making it that much harder for a rookie to make an impact.
- He may not win the WR3 role…As I type this, I’ve see no evidence that Gonzalez is even in the hunt for the WR3 job to open the season. It seems, to me, that veteran Aaron Moorehead is laying claim to that role.
OK, now let’s say for the sake of argument you think my first two reasons are bogus. To further the conversation, let’s grant the Gonzalez enthusiasts the most bullish outcome: Gonzalez adjusts quickly AND wins the WR3 role…even under that (unlikely) scenario, I still think Gonzalez is OVERVALUED.
| Year | First | Last | Recs | Yards | TDs | FPTs | WRRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Jerome | Pathon | 50 | 511 | 1 | 57.1 | 72 |
| 1999 | E.G. | Green | 21 | 287 | - | 28.7 | 98 |
| 2000 | Terrence | Wilkins | 43 | 569 | 3 | 74.9 | 56 |
| 2001 | Reggie | Wayne | 27 | 345 | - | 34.5 | 86 |
| 2002 | Qadry | Ismail | 44 | 462 | 3 | 64.2 | 68 |
| 2003 | Troy | Walters | 36 | 456 | 3 | 63.6 | 72 |
| 2004 | Brandon | Stokley | 68 | 1,077 | 10 | 167.7 | 11 |
| 2005 | Brandon | Stokley | 41 | 543 | 1 | 60.3 | 69 |
| 2006 | Brandon | Stokley | 8 | 85 | 1 | 14.5 | 120 |
| Avg. | Including | 2004 | 38 | 482 | 2 | 62.8 | 72 |
| Avg. | Excluding | 2004 | 34 | 407 | 2 | 49.7 | 80 |
This is a table of the WR3 for each of Peyton Manning’s seasons. You’ll notice that Stokley’s monster 2004 is a MAJOR OUTLIER. Even if you include his 2004 totals, the Colts WR3 has generally been a fantasy non-factor. On average, the WR3 has produced 63 fantasy points and had an average fantasy ranking of WR72. Other than 2004, no Colts WR3 has cracked the TOP 50 at the WR position. And if you exclude Stokley’s 2004 season, the numbers are downright dismall (49.7 FPTs/season, WR80 average fantasy rank).
Anthony Gonzalez currently has an ADP of 158th overall (WR52); which is too high. But I’ve seen him go even higher in several drafts this week. He’s pre-ranked fairly high in Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline, which may explain why people are drafting him in the middle rounds.
If you have deep rosters and like Gonzalez’ potential as an injury replacement for Harrison or Wayne, so be it. But if you think that the Colts WR3 has value in and of itself, you are sorely mistaken.
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http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/29489/IND_Gamebook.pdf
Comment by Mark Wimer — August 31, 2007 @ 10:35 am
Thanks Mark,
But does this really tell us anything one way or another? Moorehead had the better game, but Gonzo played.
Comment by admin — August 31, 2007 @ 11:07 am