Joey Harrington: He and the Falcons are being mis-projected
I don’t think Joey Harrington is any good, and I haven’t thought he was going to be any good in a long time. That being said, there are some serious mis-projections going on right now. David Dodds has the Falcons with 454 attempts, Henry has Atlanta with 470, Smith 420, Tremblay 485 and Wood 500. Only Wood stands a chance of being accurate, in my opinion.
Last year Atlanta passed 416 times and ran 537 times — but that’s very misleading. The Falcons were also sacked 47 times last year, and QB runs accounted for 130 of those carries. In other words, the Atlanta QB passed, ran or was sacked 593 times in 2006.
Harrington has been sacked way fewer than most QBs; for his career only once for every 24 pass attempts. Last year, he was sacked just once for every 26 pass attempts, and ran just once every 20 pass attempts. If we project non-QBs to rush 407 times again this year, what splits should we expect out of Harrington if he takes every snap? Something like 544 pass attempts, 22 sacks and 27 rush attempts.
Going further, the Falcons defense is terrible. Only the Redskins had a pass defense as weak as Atlanta’s in 2006. The additions of rookies Anderson and Houston might help down the road, but I fully expect Atlanta to give up a ton of points in 2007. Lots of points allowed should lead Atlanta to lean on the pass even more.
What about the running game? I like Norwood and Dunn, but I expect to see some serious decline in their yards per rush this year. Doug Drinen projects the Falcons RB yards per rush to drop from 4.64 to under 4.00 this year, and I don’t think he’s far off. Vick was always the center of attention for opposing defenses, and he changed the way the DEs and LBs would align. That undoubtedly helped Norwood averaged 6.4 YPC last year, and allow Dunn to be one of two RBs in NFL history (Tiki Barber) to rush for 1400+ yards at 5.00+ yards per carry at the age of 30 or greater. Now? With a weaker running game, expect fewer carries and more passes. Which once again points to good things for Harrington.
If he stays healthy — which he always has — Harrington could close in on 600 pass attempts this year. An awful defense, an average running game, and a QB that rarely runs or gets sacked is a recipe for at least 500 pass attempts. And only Jason Wood has recognized that so far.
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What happened to Fantasy Armageddon, Jason? lol - MW
Comment by Mark Wimer — August 29, 2007 @ 3:34 pm
To be fair to Maurile, he was estimating only 1 attempt per game less than Jason. If you are saying Joey will near 600 attempts, none of them including Jason are really close.
This isn’t “The Price Is Right” - who can get closest without going over
Comment by tmarman — August 29, 2007 @ 3:41 pm
Mark,
Just because I have him attempting a lot of passes doesn’t mean I think he’s of any fantasy value. Kudos to Chase for looking at this in a way I hadn’t thought of though. One point of contention, however. Bobby Petrino contrary to popular opinion is a big advocate of using the run to set up the pass; he’ll run plenty.
TMarman,
I agree that Chase’s giving me a pass doesn’t make much sense. Based on his view, I’m closer to the others than I am to his 600 attempts viewpoint.
Comment by admin — August 29, 2007 @ 8:04 pm
Jason,
You can’t use the run to set up the pass when you have a bad team. And that’s what Atlanta has right now. I’m also concerned that the change in the run blocking scheme will make things ever harder for Dunn and Norwood. I don’t see how Harrington doesn’t throw 32+ times per game.
Comment by Chase Stuart — August 29, 2007 @ 11:49 pm
Petrino’s last NFL offense was with 2001 JAC. They ran 597 pass plays (= att plus sacks) and finished 6-10. ATL looks like about a 6-10 team to me. So it’s not unreasonable to assume about 597 pass plays this year.
Harrington historically gets sacked on 4% of his pass plays (3.7% last year, a little over 4% in DET). It’s reasonable to assume that will continue. That would equate to about 24 sacks, leaving (597-24 =) 573 balls in the air.
If he completes passes at a 56.5% rate (about his post-rookie average), that’s 324 completions to spread around to the rb/te/wr in ATL.
Obviously there are some key assumptions in there, besides Harrington maintaining his career average sack and comp rates: Petrino’s 2007 offense will resemble his 2001 version; ATL will be a below average to bad team; and Harrington wwill keep his job all season.
I’m comfortable with those assumptions. What I don’t know is who wwill catch all those receptions. The 2001 Jags had Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell; I’m not comfortable with saying Joe Horn is (anymore) as good as those guys, much less the other ATL WRs stepping up to that level.
Comment by MRH — August 30, 2007 @ 12:13 pm