Comments on: Joey Harrington: He and the Falcons are being mis-projected http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/ Fantasy Football Info for Serious Fans Mon, 06 Oct 2008 17:12:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 By: MRH http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-122 MRH Thu, 30 Aug 2007 17:13:33 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-122 Petrino's last NFL offense was with 2001 JAC. They ran 597 pass plays (= att plus sacks) and finished 6-10. ATL looks like about a 6-10 team to me. So it's not unreasonable to assume about 597 pass plays this year. Harrington historically gets sacked on 4% of his pass plays (3.7% last year, a little over 4% in DET). It's reasonable to assume that will continue. That would equate to about 24 sacks, leaving (597-24 =) 573 balls in the air. If he completes passes at a 56.5% rate (about his post-rookie average), that's 324 completions to spread around to the rb/te/wr in ATL. Obviously there are some key assumptions in there, besides Harrington maintaining his career average sack and comp rates: Petrino's 2007 offense will resemble his 2001 version; ATL will be a below average to bad team; and Harrington wwill keep his job all season. I'm comfortable with those assumptions. What I don't know is who wwill catch all those receptions. The 2001 Jags had Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell; I'm not comfortable with saying Joe Horn is (anymore) as good as those guys, much less the other ATL WRs stepping up to that level. Petrino’s last NFL offense was with 2001 JAC. They ran 597 pass plays (= att plus sacks) and finished 6-10. ATL looks like about a 6-10 team to me. So it’s not unreasonable to assume about 597 pass plays this year.

Harrington historically gets sacked on 4% of his pass plays (3.7% last year, a little over 4% in DET). It’s reasonable to assume that will continue. That would equate to about 24 sacks, leaving (597-24 =) 573 balls in the air.

If he completes passes at a 56.5% rate (about his post-rookie average), that’s 324 completions to spread around to the rb/te/wr in ATL.

Obviously there are some key assumptions in there, besides Harrington maintaining his career average sack and comp rates: Petrino’s 2007 offense will resemble his 2001 version; ATL will be a below average to bad team; and Harrington wwill keep his job all season.

I’m comfortable with those assumptions. What I don’t know is who wwill catch all those receptions. The 2001 Jags had Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell; I’m not comfortable with saying Joe Horn is (anymore) as good as those guys, much less the other ATL WRs stepping up to that level.

]]> By: Chase Stuart http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-120 Chase Stuart Thu, 30 Aug 2007 04:49:30 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-120 Jason, You can't use the run to set up the pass when you have a bad team. And that's what Atlanta has right now. I'm also concerned that the change in the run blocking scheme will make things ever harder for Dunn and Norwood. I don't see how Harrington doesn't throw 32+ times per game. Jason,

You can’t use the run to set up the pass when you have a bad team. And that’s what Atlanta has right now. I’m also concerned that the change in the run blocking scheme will make things ever harder for Dunn and Norwood. I don’t see how Harrington doesn’t throw 32+ times per game.

]]> By: admin http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-118 admin Thu, 30 Aug 2007 01:04:49 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-118 Mark, Just because I have him attempting a lot of passes doesn't mean I think he's of any fantasy value. Kudos to Chase for looking at this in a way I hadn't thought of though. One point of contention, however. Bobby Petrino contrary to popular opinion is a big advocate of using the run to set up the pass; he'll run plenty. TMarman, I agree that Chase's giving me a pass doesn't make much sense. Based on his view, I'm closer to the others than I am to his 600 attempts viewpoint. Mark,

Just because I have him attempting a lot of passes doesn’t mean I think he’s of any fantasy value. Kudos to Chase for looking at this in a way I hadn’t thought of though. One point of contention, however. Bobby Petrino contrary to popular opinion is a big advocate of using the run to set up the pass; he’ll run plenty.

TMarman,

I agree that Chase’s giving me a pass doesn’t make much sense. Based on his view, I’m closer to the others than I am to his 600 attempts viewpoint.

]]> By: tmarman http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-117 tmarman Wed, 29 Aug 2007 20:41:32 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-117 To be fair to Maurile, he was estimating only 1 attempt per game less than Jason. If you are saying Joey will near 600 attempts, none of them including Jason are really close. This isn't "The Price Is Right" - who can get closest without going over :) To be fair to Maurile, he was estimating only 1 attempt per game less than Jason. If you are saying Joey will near 600 attempts, none of them including Jason are really close.

This isn’t “The Price Is Right” - who can get closest without going over :)

]]> By: Mark Wimer http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-116 Mark Wimer Wed, 29 Aug 2007 20:34:06 +0000 http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/29/joey-harrington-he-and-the-falcons-are-being-mis-projected/#comment-116 What happened to Fantasy Armageddon, Jason? lol - MW What happened to Fantasy Armageddon, Jason? lol - MW

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