Steve Smith: Why the consensus #1 ranking?
Steve Smith is comfortably atop the consensus fantasy WR rankings. He’s #1 in our expert rankings. He’s #1 in the consensus ADP data we compile. And he’s been the 1st WR off the board in every draft I’ve participated in save for one (when he went 2nd, and I took Chad Johnson 1st).
While I’m not going to suggest that Steve Smith isn’t a bonafide stud receiver, I am left scratching my head over the universal acceptance of Smith as the top fantasy pass-catcher.
- In 2005, Smith completed the triple crown of receiving
- 1st in receptions (103)
- 1st in yards (1,563)
- 1st in TDs (12)
- Not surprisingly, he ranked as the top fantasy WR
But here’s the thing, that year seems like very much the anomaly. Smith is entering his seventh year in the league, and his numbers have never come close to approximating that magical 2005 campaign:
- 2001: 10 receptions for 154 yards and 0 TDs [WR114]
- 2002: 54 receptions for 872 yards and 3 TDs [WR42]
- 2003: 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs [WR15]
- 2004: 6 receptions for 60 yards and 0 TDs [WR141]
- 2005: 103 receptions for 1,563 yards and 12 TDs [WR1]
- 2006: 83 receptions for 1,166 yards and 8 TDs [WR8]
As you can see from his fantasy ranking [in parentheses], Smith has been a good, albeit not great receiver. In his three healthy seasons since becoming the full-time starter, he’s ranked 1st, 8th and 15th. Solid numbers that argue for him being considered a tried and true fantasy WR1, but why is he such a lock to finish 1st in people’s minds?
Compare Smith’s fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time starter, against other receivers in the league:
| Rank | First | Last | YRs | Games | Recs | Yards | TDs | FPTs | PtsPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrell | Owens | 2003–2006 | 52 | 289 | 4245 | 42 | 676.0 | 13.00 |
| 2 | Torry | Holt | 2003–2006 | 62 | 406 | 5587 | 41 | 805.4 | 12.99 |
| 3 | Marvin | Harrison | 2003–2006 | 62 | 357 | 4897 | 49 | 784.0 | 12.65 |
| 4 | Steve | Smith | 2003–2006 | 47 | 280 | 3899 | 27 | 576.7 | 12.27 |
| 5 | Chad | Johnson | 2003–2006 | 64 | 369 | 5430 | 35 | 762.6 | 11.92 |
| 6 | Randy | Moss | 2003–2006 | 58 | 262 | 3957 | 41 | 644.4 | 11.11 |
| 7 | Marques | Colston | 2006–2006 | 14 | 70 | 1038 | 8 | 151.8 | 10.84 |
| 8 | Darrell | Jackson | 2003–2006 | 51 | 256 | 3774 | 29 | 552.1 | 10.83 |
| 9 | Anquan | Boldin | 2003–2006 | 56 | 342 | 4605 | 20 | 591.1 | 10.56 |
| 10 | Javon | Walker | 2003–2006 | 49 | 203 | 3209 | 29 | 513.3 | 10.48 |
| 11 | Larry | Fitzgerald | 2004–2006 | 45 | 230 | 3135 | 24 | 463.0 | 10.29 |
| 12 | Santana | Moss | 2003–2006 | 61 | 258 | 4216 | 30 | 618.0 | 10.13 |
| 13 | Hines | Ward | 2003–2006 | 61 | 318 | 4117 | 31 | 616.3 | 10.10 |
| 14 | T.J. | Houshmandzadeh | 2004–2006 | 44 | 241 | 3015 | 20 | 439.4 | 9.99 |
| 15 | Reggie | Wayne | 2003–2006 | 64 | 314 | 4413 | 33 | 638.9 | 9.98 |
| 16 | Joe | Horn | 2003–2006 | 54 | 258 | 3705 | 26 | 528.7 | 9.79 |
| 17 | Roy | Williams | 2004–2006 | 43 | 181 | 2814 | 23 | 419.7 | 9.76 |
| 18 | Chris | Chambers | 2003–2006 | 63 | 274 | 3656 | 33 | 592.9 | 9.41 |
| 19 | Donald | Driver | 2003–2006 | 63 | 314 | 4345 | 24 | 586.9 | 9.32 |
| 20 | Lee | Evans | 2004–2006 | 48 | 178 | 2878 | 24 | 444.1 | 9.25 |
| 21 | Plaxico | Burress | 2003–2006 | 58 | 234 | 3760 | 26 | 531.3 | 9.16 |
| 22 | Jimmy | Smith | 2003–2005 | 44 | 198 | 3000 | 16 | 396.0 | 9.00 |
| 23 | Muhsin | Muhammad | 2003–2006 | 62 | 271 | 3855 | 28 | 554.8 | 8.95 |
| 24 | Eddie | Kennison | 2003–2006 | 62 | 239 | 3901 | 23 | 536.4 | 8.65 |
| 25 | Joey | Galloway | 2003–2006 | 57 | 212 | 3432 | 24 | 492.6 | 8.64 |
Again, Smith is a stud…he’s put up the 4th most fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time NFL starter. But last time I checked, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison were still playing at a high level and are in dynamic offensive systems. Chad Johnson is right behind him, too.
Would I say ranking Smith #1 is illogical? NO.
Would I say others deserve as much, if not more consideration for the top spot? ABSOLUTELY.
NOTE: For subscribers, you can also read our Player Spotlight on Steve Smith which takes another look at Smith’s fantasy prospects.
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[…] few posts down, my colleague Jason Wood asks why Steve Smith is the consensus #1 fantasy wide receiver. In that post, Jason makes a strong case that Smith isn’t a very impressive number one. The […]
Pingback by Footballguys Blog » Why is Steve Smith #1? Because someone has to be. — August 9, 2007 @ 3:38 pm
[…] Jason Wood and Doug Drinen have been discussing why Steve Smith is the consensus number one fantasy wide receiver. Jason has Smith ranked as his third best WR, while Doug believes Smith is the top choice only because there’s no All-Time Great WR (in his prime) in the league right now. […]
Pingback by Footballguys Blog » Steve Smith: Why is he #1? Because he’s the best — August 9, 2007 @ 11:36 pm