Steve Smith: Why is he #1? Because he’s the best
Jason Wood and Doug Drinen have been discussing why Steve Smith is the consensus number one fantasy wide receiver. Jason has Smith ranked as his third best WR, while Doug believes Smith is the top choice only because there’s no All-Time Great WR (in his prime) in the league right now.
Frankly, I think my colleagues are failing to appreciate just how good Steve Smith has been. Smith was dominant in 2005, scoring 237 fantasy points and finishing as the top fantasy WR. After averaging 14.8 FP/G during the regular season, he averaged 20.4 FP/G during the playoffs.
Last year, Smith missed two games early in the season, and Jake Delhomme missed three games late in the season. In the other 11 games, Smith totaled 73 receptions for 1,043 yards and 8 TDs, and threw in another 66/1 on the ground. That’s an average of 15.0 FP/G, which is even higher than his stellar ‘05 season. Is it appropriate to ignore the other five games? Chris Weinke was absolutely atrocious last year, and I don’t think projecting Smith in ‘07 off of what he did with Weinke is going to help you make an accurate prediction. While the two missed games are certainly a concern, I don’t think Smith should be downgraded much due to injury risk.
The last 30 times that Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme were on the field together, Smith totaled 3,193 yards and 24 scores. That 15.44 FP/G average is incredible, and no other WR in the league will be able to match that in 2007. While we don’t know that Smith can, not enough has changed in Carolina for me to think that a 28-year old Steve Smith won’t once again be gaining over 100 yards per game.
Harrison averaged 13.11 FP/G in 30 games the past two seasons, ignoring the last two games in 2004 when he barely played. Owens averaged 12.85 FP/G in the 10 games that Tony Romo started last year. Chad Johnson has averaged 11.93 FP/G over the past two seasons. Over that same span, Torry Holt has averaged 12.33 FP/G in the 24 games in which he and Bulger both played. Harrison, T.O., Holt and Johnson are great receivers, but none of them are currently capable of scoring 240 FPs in a season. Steve Smith is.
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Great post. This really sums up the arguement for Steve Smith.
Comment by Q-bert — August 10, 2007 @ 10:18 am