Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

OK, I get why people THINK they’re getting value with Anthony Gonzalez. Everyone remembers that fateful 2004 season when the Colts had not one, not two, but THREE 1,000-yard receivers.

• Marvin Harrison: 86 receptions for 1,113 yards and 15 TDs
• Reggie Wayne: 77 receptions for 1,210 yards and 12 TDs
• Brandon Stokley: 68 receptions for 1,077 yards and 10 TDs

But let’s not lose sight of the fact Peyton Manning threw 49 touchdown passes that season! That was a crazy year where the Colts passing game was running at an otherworldly level.

Now, let’s turn our attention to Gonzalez. He’s a sure-handed, productive receiver out of Ohio State University. While he’s not a burner, he seems like a younger version of the guy he’s replacing, Brandon Stokley (Stokley is now a Denver Bronco). But people seem to be forgetting three very important things:

• He’s a rookie…for every Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin, there are a dozen rookie receivers that don’t produce much as they learn the ropes. The Colts offense is among the most complex in the league, making it that much harder for a rookie to make an impact.
• He may not win the WR3 role…As I type this, I’ve see no evidence that Gonzalez is even in the hunt for the WR3 job to open the season. It seems, to me, that veteran Aaron Moorehead is laying claim to that role.

OK, now let’s say for the sake of argument you think my first two reasons are bogus. To further the conversation, let’s grant the Gonzalez enthusiasts the most bullish outcome: Gonzalez adjusts quickly AND wins the WR3 role…even under that (unlikely) scenario, I still think Gonzalez is OVERVALUED.

This is a table of the WR3 for each of Peyton Manning’s seasons. You’ll notice that Stokley’s monster 2004 is a MAJOR OUTLIER. Even if you include his 2004 totals, the Colts WR3 has generally been a fantasy non-factor. On average, the WR3 has produced 63 fantasy points and had an average fantasy ranking of WR72. Other than 2004, no Colts WR3 has cracked the TOP 50 at the WR position. And if you exclude Stokley’s 2004 season, the numbers are downright dismall (49.7 FPTs/season, WR80 average fantasy rank).

Anthony Gonzalez currently has an ADP of 158th overall (WR52); which is too high. But I’ve seen him go even higher in several drafts this week. He’s pre-ranked fairly high in Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline, which may explain why people are drafting him in the middle rounds.

If you have deep rosters and like Gonzalez’ potential as an injury replacement for Harrison or Wayne, so be it. But if you think that the Colts WR3 has value in and of itself, you are sorely mistaken.

Editor’s Note: If anyone happens to be down in Georgia, please check in on Mr. Wimer and make sure he’s not suffering from severe heat stroke. Ay yay yay.

OK, those of you who have followed this blog for a while now know that my colleague Jason Wood and I have been going back-and-forth on Joey Harrington’s fantasy prospects for 2007. For those who are new to the blog, Jason insists that once regular season rolls around, Joey Harrington will be part of a “Fantasy Armageddon” in Atlanta, while I’ve argued a more positive case for Harrington. Well, I’m going to turn up my rhetoric a bit today and state for the record that at this moment, Joey Harrington is the most undervalued fantasy QB in the NFL, and should outplay his current rankings/projections/ADP by a wide margin, as fellow Footballguy Chase Stuart broke down in his excellent post yesterday. I’ll go through the qualitative reasons for my optimism below:

Harrington’s preseason numbers to date:

• vs. the Jets (week 1) 6/9 for 88 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions
• vs. the Bills (week 2) 4/7 for 31 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception
• vs. the Bengals (week 3, generally considered the most important week of pre-season for starting players) 13/21 for 164 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions

Yes, I know that this is only the preseason, but in general defenses have the advantage over offenses in preseason, because the offense is running a “vanilla” scheme that doesn’t display the full range of a playbook, in order to preserve the best plays for regular season (and keep them off tape, to hopefully surprise opposing defensive coordinators). Also, this year the Falcons are installing a brand new offense with a brand new starting QB - if there was a time for this offense to struggle, it was during August. To almost every one’s surprise, the Falcons haven’t looked horrid, and during week 3, the first team passing attack looked very good.

When I wrote my original positive case for Harrington, I assumed that he’d be able to work with Alge Crumpler for most of training camp - that turned out to be wrong, as Crumpler just returned to game action in week 3 of the pre-season (2/15/0). The good news is, Dwayne Blakley has played with the first team a lot in Crumpler’s absence, and has proven to be a reliable receiver (as well as a huge receiver - 6′ 4″, 257) with a nose for big plays. He grabbed one pass in each preseason game, with 1/37/0 in week 1, 1/5/0 week 2, and 1/29/0 week 3. He brings depth and the possibility of 2-TE sets to the offense at his position.

With veteran Joe Horn on board to mentor the young receivers, Roddy White made strides towards becoming a polished receiver (he’s still dropping some catch-able balls, though) -and Harrington appears to trust White and goes back to him even after a bad play. The trust between them is encouraging (Vick tended to give up on passing at points and just resort to running the ball). Michael Jenkins was quiet in week 1 and 2 (1/10/0 and 1/6/0), but pulled down 4/45/0 during week 3. Also, the emergence of Laurent Robinson during preseason has helped deepen the WR position. The Falcons aren’t sporting a stable of WRs like the Colts, but Harrington and company have made their receivers look decent during preseason.

In all, I’d characterize the preseason efforts of the Falcons’ passing attack to be encouraging, and Harrington has looked increasingly comfortable as his repetitions have piled up. He has thrown with nice placement, touch, and velocity, in my opinion, and has also uncorked some deep passes that were well thrown (whether or not White caught them). Coach Petrino has sported some 4 and 5 wide sets during preseason, indicating that he is ready to rely on Harrington’s arm to move the ball - that’s a big plus for Harrington’s fantasy prospects, in my book.

As others have mentioned, the Falcons’ defense looks suspect vs. the run and the pass, so the Falcons are probably going to be chasing leads in many games this year, which should tend to inflate the number of passing attempts in many games.

Finally, Harrington has some personal developments in his life that make me hopeful for his 2007 season. He took the big step of getting married this past spring (March 10) to Emily (Hatten) Harrington, and a mature, married man is less likely to have his head turned by sudden fame and fortune (such as Harrington enjoyed when he first joined the NFL with Detroit). Also, Harrington is smart enough to know that this fortuitous opportunity with the Falcons is his final shot at proving he is a viable NFL starter. There is nothing like being down to your last chance to focus a player’s attention on the business at hand.

Given what I’ve seen from Harrington so far (I live in the Atlanta TV market and while not a Falcons fan, I do get the broadcasts of all the Falcons’ preseason games) and all the arguments I’ve read and written - pro- and con-, some of them linked above - I am bumping up my projections for Harrington this season to 3200-3400 yards, 22-24 TDs and 14-16 interceptions (50 yards rushing, 0 TDs). Those projections drop him solidly into fantasy QB 2 range on my board, at #17 (preseason - he’d probably end up actual QB 11 or 12 in total fantasy points after week 17 if those projected numbers are realized as many NFL starters miss a few games each season due to various unpredictable injuries). That’s about 10 spots higher than the expert consensus at Footballguys.com, but I think that’s where he’ll end up numbers-wise (barring an injury which would cost him games) at seasons’ end.

The best news for fantasy owners is this: you can draft Harrington in the final few rounds of your draft (he’s going at a current ADP of 202nd off the board, QB 29) and if he does go on a tear and ends up starting some games for your squad, you look like a genius. If he flops, nobody is going to remember who picked Harrington in the 17th round next year.

Happy Drafting!

Following on on what Jason Wood said, I have some more thoughts on the Detroit Lions RB situation.

Kevin Jones will begin the season on the PuP list. This means he will miss the first five games of the season leaving Bell as the unquestioned starter for a third of the season. That is great for Bell owners, isn’t it?

Who will the Lions play in those five games? Tatum will start versus the Oakland Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, and Washington Redskins. The Bears and Vikings were two of the top teams versus the run in 2006.

The thing about Bell is his inconsistency with carries and production. Even though Tatum finished with 233 carries in thirteen games, he only had six games with more than 18 carries. And, he had five games with over one hundred rushing yards and five games under fifty rushing yards.

Tatum Bell is a good RB to have on your team. The tough part comes on whether you feel comfortable starting him over another viable RB with this schedule.

In a move we’ve been expecting for some time, the Lions will keep Kevin Jones on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list; which will keep him out of at least the first 5 games (six weeks includes the Lions bye) of the regular season. Jones simply hasn’t been able to recover from his Lisfranc injury. According to Tom Kowalski, the doctors believe Jones’ is healing and on track for a full recovery; but it makes no sense to rush him back.

If he comes back by midseason; Jones would be an interesting waiver wire pickup. But unless you’re in deep leagues (i.e., 20+ rounds), it is hard to justify spending a roster spot on him now, knowing that you won’t have him for a major part of the fantasy regular season (which usually runs 13- to 14-weeks).

So the question becomes, what should fantasy owners do about the Lions’ backup RBs. For the record, here are the RBs currently on the Lions’ depth chart (note: 75-man roster):

1. Tatum Bell
2. T.J. Duckett
3. Avieon Cason
4. Brian Calhoun
5. Anthony Sherrell
6. Kevin Jones

For the sake of fantasy redrafts, let’s agree that only Bell and Duckett are even worth discussing currently. Cason and Calhoun are battling for a roster spot, but neither is likely to see the field much save for occasional 3rd-down duties and, of course, special teams.

Tatum Bell

Bell was traded to Detroit (along with George Foster) for CB Dre Bly. While the Broncos upgraded by bringing in Travis Henry, Bell isn’t someone completely ill equipped to produce if given the opportunity. He’s never proven himself durable (or well rounded) enough to carry a full workload, but he’s had moments of solid play.

As of today, Tatum Bell has an ADP of 72nd overall (32nd RB); which puts him in the 6th-7th round mix in 10- and 12-team drafts.

That’s certainly not a big price to pay for a potential starting tailback, but there are some risk factors you need to consider:

• OC Mike Martz is pass happy; it’s one thing to call running plays when Marshall Faulk is in his prime, it’s entirely another when it’s Tatum Bell
• Tatum Bell fumbles; Bell has 8 fumbles in the last two season (2 as a receiver)
• Bell is a terrible goal-line back; Bell has only 3 rushing TDs in 17 goal-line rushing attempts
• Denver’s system inflates RB yards-per rush; Broncos RBs have averaged almost a full yard per carry less when they play for another team which suggests Bell could fall well short of his career 4.9 yards per rush

Bottom Line: Bell probably has the Detroit starting job locked up for at least the first six weeks, and it’s hard to argue against drafting an NFL starting RB in the 6th or 7th round. That said, there are plenty of reasons to think he could be one of the LEAST effective starters on any given Sunday.

T.J. Duckett

Duckett spent four years in Atlanta where he was sometimes the Thunder to Warrick Dunn’s lightning. But he could never quite break out of the backup role and moved onto Washington last year; where he was an outright bust. As you can see from the games played, Duckett has had his fair share of injuries; and his size/conditioning have often been called into question. The only thing that should scream out at you, though, is his TD totals.

Duckett has 33 rushing touchdowns in five seasons, and had a stretch in Atlanta where he averaged 9 TDs/season (2003-2005). This gets at the one facet of the game where Duckett has proven himself time and again; the GOAL LINE.

• 24 of Duckett’s 33 (72%) career rushing TDs were at the goal-line (5 yards or less)
• Duckett has converted better than 50% of his career goal-line attempts
• Duckett’s goal-line conversion rate ranks 7th-best among qualified RBs since 2002

Goal Line TD Conversion Rate (2002-2006)

As of today, T.J. Duckett has an ADP of 196th overall (RB58); which puts him as a very late round pick in 10- and 12-team drafts; and a waiver wire option in smaller size leagues.

Bottom Line: Duckett is the ultimate low-risk, late round flier. If you accept that a portion of your draft day roster is going to be churned over during the season anyway, I’m always an advocate of going for long shot, high upside picks at the tail end of my draft. While Duckett has given no indication he will contend for a big workload in Kevin Jones’ absence, he is one of the best goal-line backs in the league while Bell is one of the worst. If you’re in a TD-heavy league or have rosters that go 20+ players; I think Duckett is a much savvier pickup than Tatum Bell would be in the 6th or 7th round.

Whether you just love looking at enthusiastic hosts with high top fades or producers breaking the 4th wall or want 5-minutes of hard hitting fantasy insight, the Five Minute Drill has got what you need. Footballguys’ own Cecil “Kid” Lammey and Sigmund “Play” Bloom (with a special guest appearance by producer Marc Faletti) are back with their third episode of the must see fantasy vidcast. This week they look at drafting QBs and TEs, and finish off with a pair of great PKs and Defenses that deserve your attention.

LISTEN NOW!

This first appeared in the Joey Galloway spotlight thread. I’ve edited to discuss 36-year old wide receivers in general, but focusing on Joey Galloway in particular. Galloway is the only receiver this year that will turn 36 and is slated to start. Troy Brown is the only other 36 year old at the WR position this year, and he’s starting the season on the PUP list.

For those writing off Joey Galloway or saying that 36 year olds can’t cut it at WR in the NFL, there have only been 23 recorded WRs since 1960 that have played at age 36.

From the Historical Data Dominator - How many of this list were WR1’s heading into the season?

In reverse order:

• Harold Jackson: He was well traveled at this stage of his career and only appeared in 1 game. Not the No.1
  • For reference he was almost 37 by the time the season ended
• Gino Cappelletti: He was well past his prime in 1970 and was the No.3 at best in making no receptions for the Patriots
  • For reference he had a March birthday
• Dwight Stone: He hadn’t had more than 1 catch in a season for 6 years before playing for the Jets. Pure special teamer
  • Almost 37 by seasons end
• Karl Hankton: He was a special teamer
  • Turned 36 in July of 2006
• Charley Taylor: Taylor dropped like a stone in his 36th year in 1977. Exhibit A for the prosecution, but this was 30 years ago
  • Turned 36 early in the playing season
• Andre Reed: Reed moved to Washington in his 36th year after a HOF career in Buffalo. He was 4th string at best and was almost 37 by the seasons end
• Cliff Branch: He could be exhibit 2 for the prosecution. May have been No.1 at season’s start, but dipped to 3rd by end of season
  • Turned 36 just before start of the season
• Keenan McCardell: Another exhibit for the prosecution. Did nothing after a very good year as a 35 year old
  • He was practically 37 by the end of the season
• Ricky Proehl: Proehl was a No.3 or 4 receiver. Was never going to post huge stats
  • Closer to 37 by the time the season ended (March birthday)
• Art Monk: Monk had shown serious decline the year before dropping to the 38th ranked receiver
  • Turned 36 late in the season
• Don Maynard: We’re going back almost 40 years here. Big drop in production after the age of 34
  • Another January birthday so was almost 37 by the end of the year
• Frank Lewis: He missed a lot of time in his 35th and 36th year
  • Turned 36 just before season commenced
• Rod Smith: With the arrival of Javon Walker, although there were doubts on his health, wasn’t the No.1
  • Turned 36 in the May before the start of the season
• Irving Fryar: Fryar is Exhibit 4 for the prosecution, and maybe the best evidence so far. Went from the top 10 to mediocrity and turned 36 early in the season
• Henry Ellard: Dropped from 33rd to 55^th, although his 33rd ranking was a 1,000 yard season at age 35
  • Turned 36 just before season commenced
• Tony Martin: Martin was moving from club to club at this stage and ranked 77th the year before
  • Turned 36 at the start of the season
• Drew Hill: Hill moved from Houston to Atlanta. Was ranked 14th the previous 2 seasons, but at a new club for his 36th year
  • Turned 36 early in the season
• Tim Brown: Brown had 81 catches in his 36th year, but with Jerry Rice and a young Jerry Porter aboard, he wasn’t the No.1 or dominant No.2
  • Turned 36 just before season commenced
• Charlie Joiner: Joiner improved his ranking from 29th to 20th in his 36th year. First exhibit for team Galloway
  • Turned 36 halfway through the season
• James Lofton: Lofton went from 9th to 19th in his 36th year. 2nd exhibit for team Galloway
  • Turned 36 just before season commenced
• Cris Carter: Carter went from 10th to 32nd, but the odd thing is he only started to tank once he hit 36. Through the first 10 weeks was much better. Was the No.2 behind Moss
  • Turned 36 late in the season
• Jimmy Smith: Smith improved from 21st to 19th and was almost 37, as well. Exhibit 3 for team Galloway
  • As mentioned, almost 37 by season’s end
• Jerry Rice: It’s no surprise to see Jerry Rice at the top of this list. After missing all but 1 game the previous year, Rice was very good. A young Terrell Owens had probably assumed the mantle of No.1
  • Turned 36 midway through the season

In conclusion, very few 36 year old receivers have been the true No.1 at a club and those that were haven’t done too bad. Joey Galloway will be a very young 36-year old according to this list and with only 23 full examples and in reality less than 10 players to compare him to he is very good value. Fitness is much better now than when a lot of the players listed were playing. He’s a No.1 WR and hasn’t declined to any noticeable degree. He can definitely join the top 3 of this list.

Next year’s class of 36-year-olds is scheduled to include: Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce and Joe Horn. We’ll see if any of them perform to the level of Joey Galloway in 2006.

Ed Bouchette wrote an interesting article on LB James Harrison Wednesday, 8/29. It appears that James Harrison has ascended to be the unquestioned starter in Joey Porter’s old spot on the Pittsburgh defense - right outside linebacker.

Harrison is way below the IDP radar right now as he is a career backup to this point in his career, with a mere 17 fantasy points to his credit last year (163rd on the LB board at year’s end). He’s not even ranked on most fantasy LB boards right now.

However, in the article linked above we read:

Into the breach steps James Harrison, a former undrafted rookie who was cut by the Steelers, twice, then cut by Baltimore, then re-signed by the Steelers as an afterthought one week before training camp because Clark Haggans had a broken hand. Not only will he start at right outside linebacker, where Joey Porter and Greg Lloyd played before him, Harrison expects to surpass the productivity of either of them in one season.

‘My personal goal, I want to try to get at least 12 sacks,’ Harrison said yesterday.

If Harrison can approach Porter’s productivity this season, he could perhaps match Porter’s best fantasy season (2002 - 16 games, 61 tackles, 28 assists, 9 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 interceptions - 122 fantasy points, 14th overall LB that year) or at least land in the top 40 at his position, as Porter did during 2005 (40 tackles, 17 assists, 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 2 interceptions and 4 passes defensed - 104 fantasy points for 37th LB at year’s end).

Right now you can probably land Harrison deep in your draft and stash him at #5 or #6 LB on your bench. If he lives up to his goals, you’ll have grabbed a productive fantasy LB for a song. If he flops or gets injured, you haven’t invested much anyway - this guy is a high upside, low risk pick at the moment.

Happy Drafting!

I don’t think Joey Harrington is any good, and I haven’t thought he was going to be any good in a long time. That being said, there are some serious mis-projections going on right now. David Dodds has the Falcons with 454 attempts, Henry has Atlanta with 470, Smith 420, Tremblay 485 and Wood 500. Only Wood stands a chance of being accurate, in my opinion.

Last year Atlanta passed 416 times and ran 537 times — but that’s very misleading. The Falcons were also sacked 47 times last year, and QB runs accounted for 130 of those carries. In other words, the Atlanta QB passed, ran or was sacked 593 times in 2006.

Harrington has been sacked way fewer than most QBs; for his career only once for every 24 pass attempts. Last year, he was sacked just once for every 26 pass attempts, and ran just once every 20 pass attempts. If we project non-QBs to rush 407 times again this year, what splits should we expect out of Harrington if he takes every snap? Something like 544 pass attempts, 22 sacks and 27 rush attempts.

Going further, the Falcons defense is terrible. Only the Redskins had a pass defense as weak as Atlanta’s in 2006. The additions of rookies Anderson and Houston might help down the road, but I fully expect Atlanta to give up a ton of points in 2007. Lots of points allowed should lead Atlanta to lean on the pass even more.

What about the running game? I like Norwood and Dunn, but I expect to see some serious decline in their yards per rush this year. Doug Drinen projects the Falcons RB yards per rush to drop from 4.64 to under 4.00 this year, and I don’t think he’s far off. Vick was always the center of attention for opposing defenses, and he changed the way the DEs and LBs would align. That undoubtedly helped Norwood averaged 6.4 YPC last year, and allow Dunn to be one of two RBs in NFL history (Tiki Barber) to rush for 1400+ yards at 5.00+ yards per carry at the age of 30 or greater. Now? With a weaker running game, expect fewer carries and more passes. Which once again points to good things for Harrington.

If he stays healthy — which he always has — Harrington could close in on 600 pass attempts this year. An awful defense, an average running game, and a QB that rarely runs or gets sacked is a recipe for at least 500 pass attempts. And only Jason Wood has recognized that so far.

I admit it. I like Sexy Rexy this year. Sure, he cannot take a hand-off in preseason. And, he had three games in the second half of 2006 with three picks each. That sure is a lot not to like.

Do you feel a “BUT” coming? Well you should. Grossman finished as QB15 last season even with those horrible games last year. Also, Mark Bradley is healthy (for now). Devin Hester is a viable WR4 for the Bears and a tremendous playmaker the Bears are needing. Bernard Berrian is emerging as the WR1. Muhsin Muhammad is the veteran receiver who makes clutch catches. The Bears drafted a pass-catching tight end, Greg Olsen, to pair with Desmond Clark. The weapons at Grossman’s disposal in 2007 are much better than he had in 2006.

I think we also need to remember that last year was the first year Grossman had more than three starts. In addition, we need to consider that the Bear running game will not be as productive in 2007 as it was in 2006 with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson working in tandem. Any hiccup, or injury, by Benson and Grossman will be passing a ton.

The Footballguys.com projections (by Dodds) list Grossman as QB20, with the other FBG staffers projecting Grossman as QB25 or lower. The Footballguys.com redraft rankings have Grossman as QB23 only because two staffers (including yours truly) have him ranked as QB16. QB16 might be too low because of last year’s production.

In 2006, the former Gator had 23 touchdowns and 20 picks in 480 pass attempts. Any improvement would make Grossman a low-end QB1 for fantasy leagues. He was only eleven fantasy points out of a tie for QB11. It is very reasonable to assume an eleven point improvement for his second year as the full time starter.

If you are looking for a QB2 with great upside, take Rex Grossman. He is being drafted as ADP of QB22, in the 13th round. That is very good value for a guy that finished as QB15 last year.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Tight Ends:

Take a look here for my overall TE redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Tight Ends are often overlooked and discounted as not worth much in Fantasy Football, but certain players can make a key difference and win you several games over the course of a fantasy season. Here at Footballguys we focus on ranking TEs based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses), so if those come into play in your particular league also keep that in mind. Every point matters.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only one player that is really moving up a lot and it shouldn’t surprise you if you read my changes at wide receiver. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits not just Santonio Holmes but also Heath Miller. Miller will be going deeper and down the seam more, and I think he could crack the Top 10 TE list for 2007.

Tennessee is struggling to find competent receivers. Last season, Vince Young relied on his two tight ends - Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe - to help him to sustain drives. This year it appears that it is all about Scaife and there are even rumors that Troupe is on the trading block. Target Scaife and move Troupe down your list.

Jacksonville is also a WR nightmare. The TEs are also jumbled, but it got a little clearer when Jermaine Wiggins (former Viking) was released. Marcedes Lewis should take over this position, but I’m still wary about the entire Jaguar passing game.

Green Bay will throw quite a bit this year (big surprise), and Brett Favre still loves Bubba Franks. Donald Lee was supposed to push him out of a job, but Franks never got that memo.

Lastly, many who have followed my writings about later round TEs know that I am a big fan of the Carolina Panthers’ new starter, Jeff King. King was a standout at Virginia Tech, and now he gets his big shot. Carolina has issues in their passing attack and they need a “go to” guy without Keyshawn to move the chains on third down. King can be that guy.

Good luck everyone.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Wide Receivers:

Take a look here for my overall WR redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Wide receiver is a tricky position to rank, as here at Footballguys we focus on ranking them based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses). Still, WRs are valuable and I see a big dropoff after about 20 WRs go off the fantasy draft boards this year. If you require starting three of them or if you get the “PPR” bonus, this is a very important position. Bear in mind that if you start 3 or have a flex position, your fourth (or even fifth) WR will be playing a few weeks for you as a starter. Draft accordingly.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only made a few changes in the Top 20. Torry Holt’s knee cannot go unnoticed, so he’s a downgrade for certain. Marques Colston isn’t getting much press either, but he’s also not 100%. With so many options in the Top 20, I want “sure things”, and these guys are less than that at this moment. I’ll target a Roy Williams or a Reggie Wayne instead.

Lee Evans has impressed me, even after his amazing two-83-yard TD game last season. He’ll catch anything you throw deep at him far more often than not, and that’s a guy I want on my fantasy team. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is another top name that could really mean “Championship” for you this fantasy season.

A few other situations have me looking hard at their team’s receivers. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits Santonio Holmes more than Hines Ward. In fact, I think Holmes could be the #1 option in that passing game this season. Move Holmes up, Ward down a little.

The Giants will be throwing the ball around, but the question is who will catch it. Everyone seems dinged - from Plaxico Burress (ankle) to Michael Jennings (out for the year) to the return of an older Amani Toomer (torn ACL last year). That tells me to take a look at Steve Smith later in the draft for a guy with upside.

Staying in the NFC East, Terry Glenn is not getting younger either and he is also hurt. Terrell Owens is very very good, but he’s also not built out of steel. Grab Patrick Crayton who could be a starter several times for the Cowboys this season. I’ve already moved him up my draft board (and Glenn down some).

Next up…. Tight Ends.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Running backs:

Take a look here for my overall RB redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

The running back position is probably the most critical in all of Fantasy Football. Everyone has to pay attention to it, and while it is not impossible to win without good RBs, you are certainly swimming upstream if you don’t have at least a couple.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have not made many moves in the Top 30 RBs, as most of my expectations have been met for many of the backs. I am keeping an eye on Ahman Green and Lamont Jordan, as I think there is still room for major upside for what price you would have to pay to acquire either of their services.

Looking a little deeper I moved Leon Washington and Adrian Peterson (Chicago) more firmly into the RB40-50 range. Washington showed explosiveness against the Giants last week, breaking a catch and running away from the Big Blue defense for a touchdown to start the game for the Jets. Given his playmaking abilities and Thomas Jones’ injury concerns, I like Washington quite a bit. Peterson (version 1.0) looked good behind the Bears’ offensive line, and I have been rather unimpressed with Cedric Benson so far. Even Garrett Wolfe has looked good, but that was against much lesser talent. Grabbing Peterson is a must if you get Benson, but even if you don’t have the starter for Chicago, Peterson represents a great value later in many drafts.

So who’s sliding down the board? Kevin Jones is a no-brainer to avoid this season. With everyone expecting him to be on the “PUP” list (Physically Unable to Perform) for Weeks 1-6, I just don’t hold much hope for him to contribute. In his absence Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett will be serviceable, but I don’t know if either is a good fantasy option.

Lastly I’ll mention a favorite sleeper, and that is Lorenzo Booker of the Miami Dolphins. I love the talent and the character of Booker, but he just hasn’t shown much so far in preseason. Yes, he was given time off as he just became a father, but with the uncertainty of how he will perform for Miami and also the emergence of Jesse Chatman as the probable #2 option behind Ronnie Brown I have to move Booker down the charts.

Next up…. Wide Receivers.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Quarterbacks:

Take a look here for my overall QB redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Not much changed here actually. Two names did move up, and those are Jeff Garcia and Joey Harrington. Garcia has moved the offense well enough and I predict that he’ll be at the Bucs’ helm all season. Tampa Bay will be throwing more than they may even like, and Garcia still shows some mobility.

As for Harrington, those of you who saw the Monday Night Football game against the Bengals saw some of the reasons why he’s climbing the trailing end of the QB chart. Now don’t go crazy or start the “Atlanta to the playoffs” campaign, but Harrington throws a much easier ball to catch, something that the previous Falcons QB was often criticized for when he held that job. Harrington moved the chains and led an offense that was not afraid to focus on the passing game. New head coach Bobby Petrino even gave some 5-WR sets in the preseason, showing that he will air it out at times. If you are in a deeper league or start 2 QBs, Harrington is a nice third option.

What goes up mean something else must come down, so there are a few names that slid a few spots on my QB list. Without revealing all the names, I will say the first and most prominent one is Chad Pennington. He slid down only a few ticks, but with his poor August performances and Kellen Clemen’s good games there could be some reason for concern.

Next up…. Running backs.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC South:

RISING

• Joey Harrington, ATL (Rank: QB29) — Don’t like him much, but he’s the starter
• Luke McCown, TB (Rank: QB46) — Looks to be Bucs QB2
• Jerious Norwood, ATL (Rank: RB23) — A star in the making
• Cadillac Williams, TB (Rank: RB24) — I’m still below consensus, but has looked healthy in preseason
• DeShaun Foster, CAR (Rank: RB32) — Foster seems to have held off Williams for starting gig
• Jason Snelling, ATL (Rank: RB71) — Surprise winner of ATL RB3 battle
• Joe Horn, ATL (Rank: WR38) — Healthy + More Pass Attempts = Decent fantasy backup
• David Boston, TB (Rank: WR50) — DUI could screw things up, but played into role in preseason
• Roddy White, ATL (Rank: WR59) — Big play threat = Push Jenkins to WR3/Slot
• David Patten, NO (Rank: WR73) — Could open as WR3 (or even WR2) in pass happy offense

FALLING

• Michael Vick, ATL (Rank: Unranked) — May this be the last time we discuss Vick’s NFL prospects
• Bruce Gradkowski, TB (Rank: Unranked) — McCown appears to have edge for QB2 job
• DeAngelo Williams, CAR (Rank: RB35) — Long-term > Foster, but maybe not this year
• Warrick Dunn, ATL (Rank: RB47) — Dunn = DONE
• Mike Alstott, TB (Rank: Unranked) — He retired
• Marques Colston, NO (Rank: WR18) — Still top-20 ranked, but I see less growth than consensus
• Devery Henderson, NO (Rank: WR44) — Hamstrings + Depth = Risky WR2 prospect
• Dwayne Jarrett, CAR (Rank: WR49) — Hasn’t earned starting nod…yet
• Michael Jenkins, ATL (Rank: WR68) — Prefer Horn and White in Hotlanta
• Robert Meachem, NO (Rank: WR87) — ‘07 looks like a “red shirt” year
• Michael Clayton, TB (Rank: WR103) — Fool me once, shame on me…fool me twice…

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC South:

RISING

• David Garrard, JAX (Rank: QB34) — Will start a few games this year
• Ahman Green, HOU (Rank: RB18) — Houston run-blocking = decent, Green will catch passes and run a lot
• Roydell Williams, TEN (Rank: WR55)  –  Running with 1st team
• Ernest Wilford, JAX (Rank: WR56) — Running with Jags 1st team all preseason
• Dennis Northcutt, JAX (Rank: WR62) — Running with Jags 1st team all preseason
• Aaron Moorehead, IND (Rank: WR67) — Looks like Brandon Stokley’s replacement
• Jacoby Jones, HOU (Rank: WR88) — Could start season as WR2
• Owen Daniels, HOU (Rank: TE11) — Rookie stats compare favorably to league’s best + 2nd option in passing game
• Bo Scaife, TEN (Rank: TE18) — Young’s favorite red zone target
• Marcedes Lewis, JAX (Rank: TE19) — Lack of proven WRs + Wiggins release = Top-20 season

FALLING

• Byron Leftwich, JAX (Rank: QB26) — Another year, another preseason of questions
• Matt Jones, JAX (Rank: WR52) — Running with 2nd team
• Brandon Jones, TEN (Rank: WR57) — Roydell Williams running ahead of him on depth chart
• Reggie Williams, JAX (Rank: WR98) — In danger of being released
• Anthony Gonzalez, IND (Rank: WR107) — Not staking claim to WR3 role
• Kevin Walter, HOU (Rank: WR100) — Done nothing to earn the WR2 job; Jones + McCardell could steal touches
• Ben Troupe, TEN (Rank: TE26) — Invisible this preseason + Scaife looking to be top TE target
• Jermaine Wiggins, JAX (Rank: Unranked) — Released by Jacksonville

Note: As you can see, there is a lot of uncertainty in the AFC South, particularly as it relates to the receiving corps in Houston and Tennessee

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC North:

RISING

• Kelly Holcomb, MIN (Rank: QB37) — From Eagles 4th stringer to Vikings backup
• J.T. O’Sullivan, DET (Rank: QB45) — Appears to have edge in DET QB2 battle
• Tatum Bell, DET (Rank: RB34) — In line to start in Detroit
• T.J. Duckett, DET (Rank: RB59) — In great shape + Short yardage role
• Calvin Johnson, DET (Rank: WR25) — The real deal + Martz offense
• Troy Williamson, MIN (Rank: WR47) — Still raw, but eyesight improved and team’s only deep threat
• James Jones, GB (Rank: WR60) — Best receiver in Packers camp + Coaches willing to play rookies
• Bobby Wade, MIN (Rank: WR61) — Listed as a starter all preseason
• Devin Hester, CHI (Rank: WR93) — Marginal player, but I had him ranked with 0 FPTs earlier this preseason
• Donald Lee, GB (Rank: TE31) — Starting ahead of Bubba Franks
• Mason Crosby, GB (Rank: PK28) — My pick to win the starting PK job

FALLING

• Brooks Bollinger, MIN (Rank: Unranked) — Was supposed to compete for starting nod, now QB3
• Dan Orlovsky, DET (Rank: Unranked) — J.T. O’Sullivan appears to be in lead for QB2 role
• Kevin Jones, DET (Rank: RB44) — Injured all preseason, could go on PUP list
• Greg Jennings, GB (Rank: WR35) — MIA in preseason, James Jones playing lights out
• Mike Furrey, DET (Rank: WR51) — Johnson could start by Week One
• Mark Bradley, CHI (Rank: WR119) — Regular role in the offense seems in question
• Billy McMullen, MIN (Rank: WR130) — May not make Vikings roster
• Bubba Franks, GB (Rank: TE34) — Running with the 2nd team
• Dave Rayner, GB (Rank: Unranked) — My pick to lose the starting PK job

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC North:

RISING

• Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (Rank: QB10) — Healthy + Weapons + New OC = Top 10 potential
• Brady Quinn, CLE (Rank: QB31) — If he doesn’t start 10+ games, I’ll be shocked
• Jerome Harrison, CLE (Rank: RB60) — 3rd down role emerging
• Braylon Edwards, CLE (Rank: WR20) — Healthy + Focused + Brady Quinn = Top 20 with upside
• Santonio Holmes, PIT (Rank: WR28) — New offense + Experience + Healthy Big Ben = Breakout potential
• Demetrius Williams, BAL (Rank: WR54) — Not a starter…yet
• Tab Perry, CIN (Rank: WR80) — Pushing for WR3 role while Henry is suspended
• Daniel Coats, CIN (Rank: TE43) — Solid camp, TE2 with only Reggie Kelly ahead of him

FALLING

• Charlie Frye, CLE (Rank: QB36) — Looks like the least of two evils for Week One
• Jamal Lewis, CLE (Rank: RB27) — 2 yards and a cloud of dust = uninteresting at current ADP
• Derrick Mason, BAL (Rank: WR40) — Still a starter…but for all 16 games?
• Antonio Chatman, CIN (Rank: WR108) — Struggling for a top 4 position

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

With the recent Thomas Jones injury, Leon Washington is a guy to watch. Washington is a playmaker, pure and simple. Washington’s teammates are impressed with his abilities:

Nose tackle Dewayne Robertson sometimes finds himself stretching his neck from the sidelines, trying to get a glimpse of his teammate’s latest jaw-dropping move. Quarterback Chad Pennington calls the pint-sized speedster one of the toughest guys on the team. Center Nick Mangold said blocking for him is pure fun and he marvels at his ability to cut in an instant.

Linebacker Eric Barton added that the second-year pro is one of those players you have to account for on every play. Wide receiver Laveranues Coles described him as one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL.

Leon’s explosiveness has led the Jet coaching staff to find ways to utilize the playmaker. This past weekend, the traditional running back lined up as a wide receiver and took a 79-yard pass to the house.

Keep an eye on Leon Washington this season. With Thomas Jones’ age, Washington could play and produce big numbers at a relatively cheap price.

There was a disturbing story by Bill Coats in the St. Louis Post Dispatch today on the status of Torry Holt’s surgically repaired cartilage in his right knee. The cartilage/joint simply hasn’t healed properly, and Holt continues to have issues with pain and swelling almost seven months after the surgery. He estimated that the knee is only 70-80% recovered as of Tuesday, 8/28, a week and a half before the beginning of regular season.

Holt commented at length about the injury: “It’s just one of those deals where I’m not recovering as quick as I used to. I have to get used to that and stay patient. … I don’t know if it’ll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play…”It feels good some days, and some days it doesn’t feel as good. I’m getting somewhat used to that and getting to the point where I can manage it pretty well.”

There is a lot to unpack in the statements Holt made, but here’s how I read what he said:

• Holt’s knee isn’t healed yet
• His knee probably won’t ever be 100% healthy again
• He is using pain management techniques to stay on the field
• The injury is flaring up unpredictably

I think the red flags all add up to a degenerative knee condition, folks. That means that eventually, chunks of torn cartilage and/or chips of bone from Holt’s knee joint will become what is termed “loose bodies”, and it is very likely that further surgery(ies) will have to be performed to keep the joint from locking up.

It was a similar set of circumstances that spelled the end of both Curtis Martin’s and Marshall Faulk’s careers (to name just 2 highly visible examples).

Does the above mean that Torry Holt’s NFL career is over? No, probably not. But it does mean that he’s a very risky proposition to play a full slate of games during 2007, and that he’s beginning to hit the down slope of his exemplary career.

Drafters Beware.