Brandon Jacobs: 20 to 25 carries a game? Don’t bet on it
Yesterday, Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride spoke glowingly about RB Brandon Jacobs:
You start with Brandon (Jacobs) as the guy with Rueben (Droughns) competing for as much playing time as he can get and Brandon trying to hold off and trying to get as much as he can hold on to. But, I mean, there are other guys there too. Derrick Ward, is a young guy that we are anxious to see what he can do. Again, as Tom (Coughlin) talked about, there is some interesting competition at certain positions and it is probably not proper for me to say that I think this guy is going to start. But right now you got to say that Brandon is the guy we feel confident in to be the running back to carry the ball 20-25 times a game, but we will let it all play out.
This kind of public affirmation certainly bodes well for Brandon Jacobs’ opportunity this year. He’s got mountainous shoes to fill and, frankly, it’s unreasonable and illogical to expect Jacobs to approximate Tiki Barber’s level of production. That said, the Giants appear ready and willing to make Jacobs’ the new workhorse. Fantasy success = Ability + Opportunity; and it seems that Jacobs will have plenty of the latter.
But just because Jacobs is in line to start doesn’t mean you should expect “20 to 25 carries.” Offensive coaches LOVE to throw that mantra out, yet, you would think one day a budding young assistant coach might show them that the odds are HIGHLY against it.
- 20 carries x 16 games = 320 carries
- 25 carries x 16 games = 400 carries
First of all, let’s dismiss the possibility of 400 carries right now. Only five running backs in NFL HISTORY have rushed 400+ times in a season:
- Larry Johnson (2006): 416 carries
- Jamal Anderson (1998: 410 carries
- James Wilder (1984): 407 carries
- Eric Dickerson (1986): 404 carries
- Eddie George (2000): 403 carries
But what about 320 carries, isn’t that possible? Possible? YES. Likely? NO.
As I discussed previously, on average only 7 running backs tally 320+ carries per season. And situationally, Jacobs seems ill-suited to finish among them, for the following reasons:
- The Giants Defense — A 25th ranked finish last season combined with questions at linebacker and in the secondary, not to mention a possible holdout by DE Michael Strahan make it unlikely the Giants defense will be stout enough to allow the Giants to play conservative ball-control offense.
- The Run/Pass Ratio – In Coughlin’s three seasons as head coach, the Giants have thrown the ball 54% of the time, running it 46%. They have averaged 449 rushing attempts as a team. Those aren’t the types of numbers that produce 20+ carry rushers unless they lack a quality back, such as…
- Reuben Droughns — Droughns is a proven veteran with a pair of 1,200-yard seasons under his belt. Expect him to be used a few series per game, so he can find his rhythm. He’s not the kind of backup that warrants less than 10 touches a game.
Brandon Jacobs is an interesting fantasy prospect with solid upside. He’s currently being drafted 22nd among RBs, which could be compelling value if he can generate double-digit rushing TDs and 1,200+ rushing yards; which are well within his grasp. But don’t get caught up in coach speak and start dreaming of 1,600+ yards rushing. It’s not likely.
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Well, no. Coaches are there to coach and evaluate; the only reason they speak to the meadia in the preseason is to sell tickets. NOBODY expects him to have 25 carries a game — not even the coach. BUT, where he is being drafted, despite the fact he is the main man, is silly. (If you’ve ever seen Droughns play, you wouldn’t worry about him stealing carries.) I think he represents a great risk/reward pick in rd 4-5; anyone grabbing him before then is reaching.
Comment by War Pig-Skins — July 27, 2007 @ 12:44 pm