Joey Harrington: Don’t delude yourselves, this is fantasy armageddon
Mark Wimer is a good friend, a thoughtful person and is willing to make controversial fantasy recommendations. A great many of them work out quite well, and he may be right in portraying Joey Harrington as potential fantasy sleeper. But, I’m just not seeing it and want to offer you an alternative viewpoint on this whole Atlanta situation.
1) Petrino’s offense REQUIRES accuracy – For all of the pomp and circumstance surrounding Bobby Petrino’s hire, who really thought his system would work with Michael Vick? Petrino has said repeatedly that in order for his offense to run an optimal capacity, his quarterback needs to complete 65% of his passes. 65%…in other words, 11% higher than what Vick usually completes. But at least with Vick’s legs, failed progressions could at least turn into first downs on a scramble. Now, enter Joey Harrington with his career 55% completion rate and I ask you, how does that fit with what Petrino needs?
2) Joey Harrington’s yards-per-attempt is woeful – While yards per attempt (YPA) isn’t the only measure of a quarterback’s effectiveness, it’s certainly among the most important. YPA is correlated to one’s accuracy, one’s ability to throw downfield, one’s willingness to take a sack or throw the ball away, to name a few. For comparison, Michael Vick’s YPA is a respectable 6.7; surprisingly impressive considering his low completion rate. Care to guess what Joey Harrington’s career YPA might be? 5.70
That number might not mean much without some context. So let’s take a look at NFL QBs (since 1970) that have attempted at least 2,000 passes in their careers:
| Rank | Name | Years | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYds | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Harrington | 2002–2006 | 70 | 1209 | 2190 | 12478 | 5.7 |
| 2 | Rick Mirer | 1993–2003 | 82 | 1088 | 2043 | 11969 | 5.86 |
| 3 | Dan Pastorini | 1971–1983 | 140 | 1556 | 3055 | 18515 | 6.06 |
| 4 | Kordell Stewart | 1995–2005 | 126 | 1316 | 2358 | 14746 | 6.25 |
| 5 | David Carr | 2002–2006 | 76 | 1243 | 2070 | 13391 | 6.47 |
| 6 | Tony Banks | 1996–2005 | 98 | 1278 | 2356 | 15315 | 6.5 |
| 7 | Bubby Brister | 1986–2000 | 100 | 1207 | 2212 | 14445 | 6.53 |
| 8 | Jon Kitna | 1997–2006 | 108 | 2039 | 3433 | 22467 | 6.54 |
| 9 | Trent Dilfer | 1994–2005 | 124 | 1645 | 2952 | 19352 | 6.56 |
| 10 | Archie Manning | 1971–1984 | 152 | 2011 | 3642 | 23911 | 6.57 |
| 11 | Joe Ferguson | 1973–1990 | 186 | 2369 | 4519 | 29817 | 6.6 |
| 12 | Kerry Collins | 1995–2006 | 156 | 2869 | 5172 | 34184 | 6.61 |
| 13 | Drew Bledsoe | 1993–2006 | 194 | 3839 | 6717 | 44611 | 6.64 |
| 14 | Erik Kramer | 1987–1999 | 83 | 1317 | 2299 | 15337 | 6.67 |
| 15 | Chris Miller | 1987–1999 | 98 | 1580 | 2892 | 19320 | 6.68 |
| 16 | Scott Mitchell | 1991–2001 | 104 | 1301 | 2346 | 15692 | 6.69 |
| 17 | Jeff Blake | 1992–2005 | 120 | 1827 | 3241 | 21711 | 6.7 |
| 18 | Jim Zorn | 1976–1987 | 140 | 1669 | 3149 | 21115 | 6.71 |
| 19 | Jim Harbaugh | 1987–2001 | 183 | 2305 | 3918 | 26288 | 6.71 |
| 20 | Neil O’Donnell | 1991–2003 | 123 | 1865 | 3229 | 21690 | 6.72 |
Let’s digest on what this table shows us for a minute. In modern football history (1970-present), Joey Harrington has the worst yards-per-attempt of any QB with equivalent (or more) experience. And he’s one of only 2 QBs to average less than 6 yards per pass attempt in their careers. Now objectively, take a look at who else populates this list. How many fantasy studs do you see? Scott Mitchell had one dream season. Bledsoe was good but he had delivered solid fantasy numbers long before his 5th season (and 3rd team). Kerry Collins may be remembered as a decent QB, but only enjoyed two marginally successful fantasy seasons (2000 and 2005) in 12 years in the league. Even Jon Kitna (8th on this list), expected to be a solid fantasy QB this year, ranks 11% more productive per pass than Harrington through 2006.
3) Petrino’s offense requires good decision-making — Let’s see, Harrington doesn’t complete a high percentage of passes, doesn’t generate a lot of yards per attempt, and has thrown more TDs than INTs only once in his 5-year career; does that strike anyone as a good decision-maker?
4) The Falcons offensive line has major question marks – The Falcons offensive line allowed 47 sacks (t-7th worst) last year despite having a guy under center that could scramble his way out of the Jaws of Life. Harrington has been known to hold onto the ball in the pocket, looking and hoping someone will get wide open. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. Add to that the added uncertainty of the line transitioning to a new blocking scheme this year (abandoning the zone blocking scheme of the Mora era), and the potential loss of Warrick Dunn (who underwent surgery today); and I see Harrington taking an ABSOLUTE POUNDING.
Joey Harrington, assuming he breaks camp as the starter, should be among the worst fantasy options at his position.
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The hits just keep on rolling in Atlanta.
Comment by Mark Wimer — July 25, 2007 @ 4:16 pm
It’s true, the hits keep on coming. I bet Bobby Petrino is missing the Louisville campus right about now.
Comment by admin — July 25, 2007 @ 5:18 pm
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