Falcons nightmare offseason continues…Warrick Dunn to miss training camp
Wow, no sooner do I post my thoughts on Joey Harrington’s fantasy outlook than it’s announced that RB Warrick Dunn underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc and, as a result, will miss training camp. Recall that this follows offseason shoulder surgery in January that kept Dunn from working out for a few months.
Dunn has been remarkably durable and productive for a guy of his size, but at 32-years old with his career totals, biology is going to work against him coming back to approximate his peak production. By the time he gets back into pads, it will have been six+ months since he worked out at full capacity.
While it’s never good for a player to miss training camp, this is a particularly disadvantageous one for Dunn to skip because of the new offensive philosophy. New head coach Bobby Petrino is abandoning the zone-blocking scheme that’s worked so well for Atlanta in recent years in favor of a more traditional in-line blocking scheme.
Fantasy Implications:
- RB Jerious Norwood gets the chance to shine – Norwood was already on the fantasy radar as a potential sleeper and was expected to play a major part as part of a committee approach with Dunn, but now the 2nd-year speedster out of Mississippi State is in line for a heavy workload; particularly early on. I was of the opinion Norwood would have the better numbers at year end before Dunn’s injury, now I see no way Norwood doesn’t push for 1,100-1,200 yards rushing at a minimum if he can stay healthy.
- RB Warrick Dunn has to be downgraded, significantly — Even if Dunn rehabs well and can practice in four or five weeks, he will still have missed significant time, all of camp, and have to learn a new offense on the fly. At 32-years old with a promising youngster in the lineup, too, Dunn is no longer a fantasy value at his current ADP. Dunn was being drafted at RB32 prior to the surgery, and now he shouldn’t be considered draftable until the late rounds.
- Don’t rule out the addition of a veteran RB, perhaps Corey Dillon? — The odds that Atlanta will bring on at least one veteran RB to compete for a roster spot are quite high. We’ll have a better sense of who’s available once training camp roster cuts start shaking out. The one “free agent” immediately worth mentioning is Corey Dillon. Dillon appears interested in playing this year, but hasn’t accepted any offers yet. This could be an intriguing situation for him, although it’s unclear if the Falcons would have any interest.
- QB Joey Harrington loses another weapon – Dunn is the consummate pro and was more than capable as a blocker, picking up blitzes when necessary. Although Dunn hadn’t caught a lot of passes in recent seasons, that was as much about the Falcons offense as it was Dunn’s skill set. Petrino’s offense lends itself to throwing to the RBs out in the flat, and Dunn was in line for plenty of catches. This means Joey Harrington loses one more proven weapon; and he needs all the help he can get.
- Petrino has an excuse for a pass-heavy ratio — When you remove Michael Vick’s 100 rushing attempts from the equation, the Falcons run/pass ratio already looked a lot more like the league norm. But now that Dunn is injured, expect Petrino to call plenty of pass plays. Whereas I was thinking a 52-48% split prior to this, I now think we could see the Falcons throw the ball 55%+ of the time. On the margin, this helps TE Alge Crumpler, WR Joe Horn and the other wideouts (but less so).
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