Joey Harrington: A positive case for his fantasy outlook
First, we have the latest news that Michael Vick has been ordered not to attend Falcons’ training camp pending a league review of his ongoing criminal prosecution under the auspices of the personal conduct policies of the NFL. This looks like only the beginning of league and team reaction to his behavior - also, realize these reactions are in light of Vick’s denials, during a face to face with commissioner Goodell during the NFL Draft this past April, and during meetings with team owner Arthur Blank, of any involvement in the dog-fighting criminal enterprise that Vick now stands accused - in an 18 page, 83 count indictment - of funding and fully participating with the operations of said alleged dog-fighting operation. Assuming that the league investigation finds enough credible evidence to indicate that Vick was deceiving the league and the Falcons when he denied any direct involvement in the sickening Bad Newz Kennels operation, it appears extremely likely that the Falcons will play 2007 with Joey Harrington at the helm as QB.
Joey Harrington - the name doesn’t exactly make fantasy owners’ hearts sing. He hasn’t lived up to the high expectations that followed his selection by the Detroit Lions (round 1, pick 3) during the 2002 NFL draft.
His career statistics to date:
- 1209/2190 for 12,478 yards (a 55.2 career completion %)
- 72 TDs
- 77 interceptions
His best fantasy season came during 2004, when he tossed 274/489 for 3047 yards, 19 TDs and 12 interceptions, ranking 17th among fantasy QBs.However, let’s be honest about the Detroit teams that Harrington spent the majority of his career with up to now - except for Roy Williams, Harrington was surrounded by a bunch of horribly disappointing, underperforming receivers like Charles Rogers and Mike Williams. The Lions’ offenses of the late 90’s and early-mid 00’s have been horrid.
Last year, Harrington joined the Miami Dolphins who were in transition from their Dave Wannstedt years to a short tenure by Nick Saban, and started the season #2 on the depth chart behind Daunte Culpepper (limiting Harrington’s reps with the first team during training camp). Eventually, it became clear Culpepper wasn’t ready to lead the Dolphins to the playoffs, and the team turned to Harrington during week 5. He threw a lot of interceptions early on after stepping in for Daunte Culpepper (9 interceptions and 6 TDs during weeks 5, 6, 7, and 9), but calmed down when he had some games and reps under his belt (6 TDs and 6 inteceptions the rest of the season). During the second half of the season, the Dolphins went on a run of 5 wins in 6 games before fading weeks 15-17 - they were briefly in playoff contention with Harrington at the helm. In short, Harrington made strides as a team leader and game-winner during the second half of his season in Miami after getting up to speed in the Dolphins’ system.
This year, Harrington will benefit from being the #1 QB on the Falcons’ depth chart from day 1 of training camp. Simply getting enough time and repetitions in the Falcons’ offense with the first team will be a huge boost compared to what Harrington fought through in Miami last year. He won’t have to get up to speed in the midst of the regular season - instead, he’ll have 4 pre-season games and a full slate of practices to build rapport with his team-mates. Things may not be perfect right away in September, but it’s still a better paradigm than what he went through last year. Let’s take a closer look at who Harrington has to work with during 2007.
First of all, the Falcons have a solid RB stable with up-and-coming talent Jerious Norwood and the experienced Warrick Dunn. Dunn in particular is a skilled pass-catcher out of the backfield, with 167 receptions for 1397 yards and 6 TDs during his 5 seasons with the team (22/170/1 receiving last year).
Secondly, the Falcons have one of the league’s leading TEs, Alge Crumpler. Crumpler has led the team’s receivers for 3 seasons in a row, hauling in 56/780/8 last year. He is a steady and reliable target, although he hasn’t had much chance to work with Harrington so far due to an off-season arthroscopic knee surgery. He is expected to participate fully in training camp when it starts this Thursday, though.
Thirdly, the Falcons brought in veteran Joe Horn through free agency to augment their youthful WR stable. Hopefully, Horn will be able to mentor Michael Jenkins and Roddy White and further their professional development, while providing a reliable and steady set of hands for Harrington.
While the above set of targets doesn’t compare well with a high-octane attack like the Colts, but it is an adequate collection of talent entering this year.
On the coaching front, the Falcons are now under the leadership of coach Bobby Petrino, who is entering his first year as head coach. The new coaching staff assembled by Petrino will be altering the offense to suit Harrington’s skills, but they’ve had enough advance warning since the Vick/dog fighting news broke in April that they shouldn’t be in panic mode to open training camp. The eventuality that the team wouldn’t have Vick at the controls had to be part of their contingency planning over the past few months. The offense being installed is to feature a more wide-open pro-style passing attack, moving away from Jim Mora Jr.’s ill-fated attempt at modifying the west coast attack to suit Vick’s skill set. The team should fare better than their perenial dead-last finish (32nd in passing attempts (416), completions (222) and passing yards (2682) during 2006) with the new system, as Vick’s sub-55% completion percentage simply wasn’t suited to the west coast scheme. Also, Harrington is more of a drop-back passer than Vick, which plays to the new offensive style - and Harrington isn’t going to pull down the ball and rush for hundreds of yards during the season, either.
In short, look for the Falcons’ passing attack to be more productive during 2007 because of the following: 1) More passing attempts and completions; 2) much less scrambling/less busted pass plays with Harrington under center; 3) the new offense that is being installed in Atlanta this year.
I think that Harrington could well have the finest numbers of his career, with 3000-3200 passing yards, 20-22 TDs and 13-15 interceptions. That won’t set the fantasy world on fire, but it will serve for spot duty as a #2 fantasy QB or a strong #3 QB on fantasy teams that intend to rotate among second- and third-tier fantasy QBs according to matchups.
Editor’s Note: This is Mark’s opinion, of which I wholeheartedly disagree, and will be penning a retort ASAP 
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Bring it on, o thou disapproving editor!
Comment by Mark Wimer — July 25, 2007 @ 2:24 pm
[…] fantasy recommendations. A great many of them work out quite well, and he may be right in portraying Joey Harrington as potential fantasy sleeper. But, I’m just not seeing it and want to offer you an alternative viewpoint on this whole […]
Pingback by Footballguys Blog » Joey Harrington: Don’t delude yourselves, this is fantasy armageddon — July 25, 2007 @ 3:33 pm