LaDainian Tomlinson: A fantasy stud even if his numbers drop significantly
LaDainian Tomlinson destroyed the NFL record books last year, and in the process, single-handedly led many fantasy owners to their league titles. If you’re reading this blog, I’m sure you’re well aware of Tomlinson’s remarkable 2006 season totals.
- 348 rushes (2nd in NFL)
- 1,815 yards (1st in NFL, 17th best all-time)
- 28 rushing TDs (1st in NFL, 1st all-time)
- 56 receptions (7th among RBs)
- 508 yards (5th among RBs)
- 3 receiving TDs (T-2nd among RBs)
- 2,323 yards from scrimmage (2nd in NFL, 6th best all-time)
- 31 TDs (1st all-time)
In the process, he scored 427.10 fantasy points (using FBG scoring), which easily ranks as the best single-season in fantasy football history:
| Rank | Name | Year | Yards | TDs | FantPts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2006 | 2323 | 31 | 427.1 | |
| 2 | Marshall Faulk | 2000 | 2189 | 26 | 374.9 | |
| 3 | Priest Holmes | 2003 | 2110 | 27 | 373.0 | |
| 4 | Priest Holmes | 2002 | 2287 | 24 | 372.7 | |
| 5 | Emmitt Smith | 1995 | 2148 | 25 | 364.8 | |
| 6 | Shaun Alexander | 2005 | 1958 | 28 | 363.8 | |
| 7 | O.J. Simpson | 1975 | 2243 | 23 | 362.3 | |
| 8 | Terrell Davis | 1998 | 2225 | 23 | 360.5 | |
| 9 | Ahman Green | 2003 | 2250 | 20 | 345.0 | |
| 10 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2003 | 2370 | 17 | 344.1 | |
| 11 | Eric Dickerson | 1983 | 2212 | 20 | 341.2 | |
| 12 | Marshall Faulk | 2001 | 2147 | 21 | 340.7 | |
| 13 | Edgerrin James | 2000 | 2303 | 18 | 338.3 | |
| 14 | Larry Johnson | 2005 | 2093 | 21 | 335.3 | |
| 15 | Larry Johnson | 2006 | 2199 | 19 | 333.9 | |
| 16 | Steven Jackson | 2006 | 2334 | 16 | 329.4 | |
| 17 | Ricky Williams | 2002 | 2216 | 17 | 323.6 | |
| 18 | Barry Sanders | 1997 | 2358 | 14 | 319.8 | |
| 19 | Emmitt Smith | 1992 | 2048 | 19 | 318.8 | |
| 20 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2005 | 1832 | 20 | 317.6 | |
| 21 | Edgerrin James | 1999 | 2139 | 17 | 315.9 | |
| 22 | Marcus Allen | 1985 | 2314 | 14 | 315.4 | |
| 23 | Marshall Faulk | 1999 | 2429 | 12 | 314.9 | |
| 24 | Emmitt Smith | 1994 | 1825 | 22 | 314.5 | |
| 25 | Jim Brown | 1965 | 1872 | 21 | 313.2 |
Coming off that monster season, it’s not surprising that LT is the consensus #1 overall fantasy pick for 2007. But inevitably there are going to be those handful of league owners who when faced with the #1 pick are going to try to talk themselves out of drafting LT. The most common argument I’ve heard from contrarians is, “he can’t possibly duplicate last year’s numbers.”
I will agree that it’s HIGHLY UNLIKELY he’ll duplicate last year’s numbers. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say it’s unlikely he’s COME CLOSE to those numbers. You’re talking about a historical season, after all.
But here’s why LT should, barring injury, still be the lock, no-brainer #1 overall fantasy pick. EVEN IF HIS PRODUCTION DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, HE WILL STILL BE A FANTASY STUD.
Consider where Tomlinson would have ranked over the last five years under two scenarios:
- Scenario A) 20% reduction from 2006 numbers = 341.7 fantasy points
- Scenario B) 40% reduction from 2006 numbers = 256.3 fantasy points
| Year | A) 20% Drop | B) 40% Drop |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | RB1 | RB6 |
| 2005 | RB2 | RB6 |
| 2004 | RB1 | RB7 |
| 2003 | RB4 | RB8 |
| 2002 | RB2 | RB9 |
| Average | RB2 | RB7.2 |
Even if Tomlinson were to shave 20% of of last year’s numbers, he’s still a virtual lock for top 2-3 production. And under a more extreme scenario, where he shaves 40% off of his record-setting numbers, he STILL would be in line for a top-7 fantasy finish. HIGH CEILING, HIGH FLOOR = A no brainer. Do yourself a favor and don’t talk yourself into taking someone other than LT with the 1st overall pick this year.
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