Statistical Norms: The Running Back Position
Continuing on from our discussion on Wide Receivers:
Next up…Running Backs
Rushing Yard Norms (1999-2006)
| RushYds | 06 | 05 | 04 | 03 | 02 | 01 | 00 | 99 | Avg | Max | Min |
| >=1400 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| >=1200 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 10 |
| >=1000 | 23 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 23 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 14 |
| >=750 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 26 | 28 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 25 | 29 | 21 |
On average, six (6) running backs have run for 1,400 yards or more over the last eight seasons, with as few as three (’99 and ‘01) and as many as nine (’03) going over the mark. It seems commonplace today for people to discount the significance of 1,000 yards rushing (because it’s only 62.5 yards per game) but as you can see, it’s still reasonably uncommon. On average, 18 running backs have gone over the 1,000-yard plateau. When you consider that most fantasy leagues will start 20-30 running backs each week, there’s a good chance you’re going to need help from a sub-1,000-yard back at some point. In terms of handicapping the baseline, the 750-yard mark has historically been a good level; with 25 backs, on average.
Rushing Attempt Norms (1999-2006)
| Rushes | 06 | 05 | 04 | 03 | 02 | 01 | 00 | 99 | Avg | Max | Min |
| >=350 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| >=320 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| >=280 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 9 |
| >=240 | 20 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 16 |
How many times do you hear a coach say he wants to get his back “20+ carries a game?” Well, when you’re doing your fantasy projections keep in mind that most of the time, it’s coachspeak. 20 carries a game over 16 games is, of course, 320 carries. As you can see, less than 10 running backs a year log that kind of workload. What’s more surprising (and important for fantasy forecasting) is how few runners eclipse the 280 carry mark. Last year, only 12 runners logged 280+ carries, right in line with our 8-year average. That means there’s a very good chance your RB2 won’t get 280 carries (17.5 per game) over the full season.
Rushing TD Norms (1999-2006)
| RushTDs | 06 | 05 | 04 | 03 | 02 | 01 | 00 | 99 | Avg | Max | Min |
| >=15 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| >=12 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| >=10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 5 |
| >=7 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 19 | 24 | 14 | 22 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 14 |
The individual record book has been shattered in recent years, with the single-season TD mark being broken or tied three of the last of the last four seasons: Priest Holmes (27 rushing TDs, 2003), Shaun Alexander (27, 2005) and LaDainian Tomlinson (28, 2006). But don’t confuse individual greatness for a broader fantasy trend. Last year, only 2 running backs rushed for 15 TDs (Tomlinson and Larry Johnson), and no more than 4 have done so in a given season over the last eight years. In fact, double-digit rushing TDs remain far harder than many people suspect. Last year only nine runners went for 10+ rushing TDs, and no more than 10 have done so over the last 8 seasons.
Receiving Yard Norms, by a Running Back (1999-2006)
| RecYds | 06 | 05 | 04 | 03 | 02 | 01 | 00 | 99 | Avg | Max | Min |
| >=500 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| >=400 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 3 |
| >=300 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 22 | 27 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 27 | 13 |
This is a choppier data set than most. Notice that 12 running backs had at least 400 yards receiving last year, up from just 3 the season before. On average, 10 runners go over the 400-yard mark, with almost double that (19) getting to 300+ yards. While this may seem like a secondary statistic, the ability of your fantasy RB to notch a few hundred yards receiving could be the difference between a good fantasy player and a great one.
Reception Norms, by a Running Back (1999-2006)
| Recs | 06 | 05 | 04 | 03 | 02 | 01 | 00 | 99 | Avg | Max | Min |
| >=50 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 5 |
| >=40 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 21 | 25 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 25 | 10 |
| >=30 | 25 | 27 | 24 | 29 | 36 | 28 | 36 | 27 | 29 | 36 | 24 |
The baseline here is clearly about the 30 reception mark, with the hurdle rate being 50+ receptions. Eight RBs had at least 50 catches last year, and these are generally the guys who turn out to be your superstar fantasy players in many cases. When doing your projections, remember though that a few of these prolific receivers are 3rd-down specialists who catch a lot of passes, but don’t get chances to run the ball very often. Last year, Michael Pittman (47 receptions), Mewelde Moore (46) and Kevin Faulk (43) fit this bill.
Receiving TD Norms, by a Running Back (1999-2006)
| RecTDs | 06 | 05 | 04 | 03 | 02 | 01 | 00 | 99 | Avg | Max | Min |
| >=5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| >=3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| >=2 | 15 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 28 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 28 | 15 |
It’s EXTREMELY rare for an NFL running back to catch TD passes 5 or more times a season. As you can see, only 4 running backs have done it in the last five seasons, and two of them (Mike Sellers and Kyle Johnson) are hardly impact fantasy players. The number of RBs with 3+ TDs remains low, averaging 7 per season (but only 5 in each of the last two seasons). Brian Westbrook (4 times) and William Henderson (3 times) are the only RBs to make the list more than twice.
Up Next: Quarterbacks
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