Cato June: The importance of defensive scheme to IDP production
Long time IDP (Individual Defensive Player) owners know how important an understanding of the nuances of defensive schemes can be to reliably projecting a defender’s fantasy value. Still, you’d be surprised at how often something so simple is overlooked. While standing at the magazine rack last week examining the rankings of a few other IDP notables in the industry, one player consistently caught my attention. Nearly every cheatsheet had Tampa Bay linebacker Cato June as a top ten linebacker for 2007.What’s the big deal, you ask? After all, June was a top ten linebacker by FBG standard scoring in 2006 and the Buccaneers run the same defensive scheme as June played in Indianapolis last year. The answer becomes clearly evident after examining June’s probable usage this year and past production as a Colt.
June played on the right side of the Colt defense last year, the side more often across from the weak side of the offensive formation, and was able to use his speed to pursue ball-carriers spilled back toward him rather than being forced to contend with blockers on most plays. In Tampa Bay, with Derrick Brooks entrenched as the pursuing WLB, June will move to the left side of the defense. The results will be disastrous to his fantasy production.
While June, a former college safety, excels in short and intermediate zone coverage, he has always struggled to elude blockers. Fans of ESPNs NFL Matchup show will recall analyst Ron Jaworski highlighting June’s inability to get off the blocks of Jacksonville WR Reggie Williams. June will face bigger and better blockers than Williams on the strong side in Tampa and will be regularly blocked at the point of attack, severely limiting his tackle production.
June has also been an inconsistent tackler during his career as a Colt, which kept him from reaching the lofty solo tackle stats of his predecessors in the favorable WLB position of Tony Dungy’s Tampa-2 scheme. Consider the tackle stats of the Colt ROLBs since 2002:
- 2002 Mike Peterson 103 solo tackles
- 2003 David Thornton 108 solo tackles
- 2004 Cato June 79 solo tackles
- 2005 Cato June 84 solo tackles (projected to 16 games)
- 2006 Cato June 96 solo tackles
Before you get too excited over the increase in production from 2004-05 to 2006, note that the Colts faced 519 rush attempts in 2006 (2nd most in the NFL) versus only 398 and 440 in 2004 and 2005, respectively. June’s relatively poor numbers in comparison to his predecessors isn’t due solely to improved MLB play from Gary Brackett either. Two other Tampa-2 WLB studs, Derrick Brooks and Lance Briggs, haven’t had trouble topping 100 solo tackles alongside steady tackling MLBs Shelton Quarles and Brian Urlacher. Even if June finds a way to elude a few more blockers this year, his questionable tackling will continue to hold his weekly production in check.
Cato June isn’t the only IDP likely to see a major change (positive or negative) to his box score production this year. There are a number of such cases every year. Taking a deeper look into the details of defensive scheme and responsibility will help you consistently identify the outliers. And, if the magazine racks this year are any indication, your ability to identify the outliers will have you outdrafting a good number of industry experts along the way.
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