It was a matter of when not if Daunte Culpepper would sign with an NFL team and we’ve been covering the possible destinations for you from the day he got released. Initial reports had him heading to Jacksonville, but that didn’t work out. He visited Tampa Bay and seemed a logical option there with Chris Simms ailing.

When we previewed Culpepper’s potential landing spots, I had this to say about Oakland:

Not As Likely As You Might Thing: Oakland Raiders

Al Davis loves strong-armed QBs but with a young head coach, a rebuilding offensive line, and a huge contract pending for JaMarcus Russell, this is a bad fit.

OOPS. Further proof that you should NEVER underestimate Al Davis’ willingness to bring aboard a strong-armed QB.

This signing will have significant implications for the upcoming fantasy season:

1) JaMarcus Russell’s contract status is tenuous — The last few days it’s become clear that Oakland the Russell’s camp are very far apart and he looks to wage an extended holdout. Signing Culpepper gives the Raiders needed leverage against the top rookie, because they can now legitimately afford to let Russell sit and stew for the next few weeks.

2) Josh McCown’s (albeit slim) fantasy prospects take a big hit – I for one had penciled in McCown as a modestly productive Week One starter. McCown is an excellent athlete and his mobility seemed to make him the favorite to start while the Raiders groomed Russell for his eventual ascendance. With Culpepper on board, McCown must now convince the Raiders he’s worth keeping around in place of the younger Andrew Walter.

3) Culpepper becomes a legitimate fantasy option on draft day — You can’t be sure the Daunte will stay healthy or finish the season as the starter; but you can be sure he’ll get the chance to carry the Raiders offense for a good chunk of the season. If Culpepper can show he’s still got some maneuverability in the pocket during training camp, he could be a decent late round option with immense upside if he were to a) remain healthy and b) play well enough to keep Russell on the bench.

What do you think about this signing? Surprised by his destination? Surprised by the one-year deal? Still think Culpepper will eventually take a backseat to Russell late in the year?

Last year, Willie Parker devoted himself to running stronger in anticipation of becoming the Steelers short yardage back. He ended up converting 10 of his 21 carries inside the opponent’s five into touchdowns. This year Willie is on a mission to be an everydown back

During a one-on-one drill in which running backs tried to block defensive backs, Parker flattened cornerback Ike Taylor and later frustrated short-tempered safety Tyrone Carter until the whistle blew and the facemask shoving began.

“I’m a lot better than I used to be,” Parker said, “and I’m going to take on anybody who’ll step up.”

And it’s all part of his plan.

With at least three other running backs who could take carries away from Parker, the two-year starter says he’s hoping to spoil their plans by become an every-down back. If he gets his way, no longer will he be replaced on passing downs.

Not now that he can block.

“That’s my motivation,” Parker said, “to be an every-down guy.”

Willie has taken it one step further, saying he wants to be better than Ladainian Tomlinson.

“I want to be better than L.T.,” Parker proclaimed yesterday between the Steelers’ double practices at Saint Vincent College. “L.T. can do all that stuff. He’s like a role model to me. I look up to this guy. I just want to do what he does.”

“I want to do it all,” Parker said. “I wouldn’t be no running back if I say I want to come off the field in certain situations. I want to do all the situations.”

The best part? His coaches don’t think he’s insane:

“L.T.’s had a lot of touches, and if Willie has those kinds of touches, his yards could be the same,” Arians said. “I like the fact he wants to be better. I don’t ever want him on the bench unless he’s tired.”

And, as new running backs coach Kirby Wilson noted, why take your best players out of the game?

“Any time your best player is capable of playing [downs] one through three, you want him out there, especially with all the chips on the line.”

Tomlinson ran for 1,815 yards on 348 carries for the Chargers last season. He also caught 56 passes for 508 yards. Parker caught 31 passes for 222 yards, many on first down. His 16 touchdowns set a Steelers record but were barely half Tomlinson’s total.

Also, if Parker were the third-down back, he’d have more opportunities to run against defenses that are spread out to defend against the pass.

“That’s something I’m beginning to love, it’s something I’m taking a lot of pride in right now,” Parker said of the third-down role. “I want to be on that field catching screens on third down.”

If you have any pick 5th or later, Willie Parker should be your man. I don’t blame you if you take him 4th before “Broken Hand” Gore, or 3rd ahead of “Holdout” Johnson. Getting Parker any later than the 7th pick in your draft is highway robbery - enjoy it if you can.

As Tom Kowalski points out on Mlive.com, Drew Stanton’s knee injury (scheduled for arthroscopic knee surgery to clean up debris/scar tissue - out 2-4 weeks) couldn’t come at a worse time for his professional development (and from the Lions’ perspective, for the QB depth chart).

Stanton was just beginning Mike Martz’s process of developing young QBs - basically, tearing down and reconstructing Stanton’s timing/mechanics from the ground up. Now, all the valuable reps that Stanton could have had during training camp have gone by the board.

Dynasty league players will want to move Stanton down their boards due to this unfortunate injury.

This is just a quick data dump. It’s the number of 30+ yard plays by each player in 2006.

Also a reminder: just because guys like Marvin Harrison and Donald Driver have fairly low yards-per-reception averages does not mean that they are not big play threats. This data shows that they are. It simply means that they catch a lot of short passes in addition to their big gainers.

Player           Big Plays
==========================
Drew Brees           26
Carson Palmer        25
Peyton Manning       21
Donovan McNabb       21
Michael Vick         19
Brett Favre          19
Tom Brady            18
Marc Bulger          18
Tony Romo            18
Ben Roethlisberger   17
Rex Grossman         16
Philip Rivers        15
Alex Smith           15
Chad Pennington      15
Jake Delhomme        15
J.P. Losman          15
Steve McNair         14
Eli Manning          13
Brad Johnson         10
Jake Plummer         10
Matt Leinart         10
David Garrard         9
Matt Hasselbeck       9
Kurt Warner           9
Mark Brunell          9
Damon Huard           9
Byron Leftwich        8
Vince Young           8
Joey Harrington       8
Charlie Frye          8
Seneca Wallace        7
Drew Bledsoe          6

Player           Big Plays
==========================
LaDainian Tomlinson  11
Frank Gore            9
Maurice Jones-Drew    6
Travis Henry          6
Willie Parker         6
Steven Jackson        5
Larry Johnson         5
Fred Taylor           5
Jerious Norwood       4
DeAngelo Williams     4
Clinton Portis        4
Willis McGahee        4
Tiki Barber           4
Kevin Jones           3
Deuce McAllister      3
Sammy Morris          3
Mike Bell             3
Michael Turner        3
Tatum Bell            3
Reggie Bush           3
Warrick Dunn          3
Julius Jones          3
Chester Taylor        3
Mewelde Moore         3
Brian Westbrook       3
Laurence Maroney      3

Player           Big Plays
==========================
Chad Johnson         10
Javon Walker         10
Marvin Harrison       9
Plaxico Burress       9
Donald Driver         9
Darrell Jackson       9
Steve Smith           9
Terry Glenn           9
Isaac Bruce           8
Joey Galloway         8
Bryant Johnson        8
Lee Evans             8
Devery Henderson      8
Donte Stallworth      8
Reggie Brown          7
Santana Moss          7
Mark Clayton          7
Bernard Berrian       7
Reggie Wayne          7
Eddie Kennison        7
Santonio Holmes       7
Reggie Williams       6
Anquan Boldin         6
Chris Henry           6
Terrell Owens         6
Joe Horn              6
T.J. Houshmandzadeh   6
Nate Washington       5
Andre Johnson         5
Laveranues Coles      5
Travis Taylor         5
Antonio Bryant        5
Braylon Edwards       5
Vincent Jackson       5
Roddy White           5
Patrick Crayton       5

Player           Big Plays
==========================
Ben Watson            5
Dallas Clark          4
Kellen Winslow Jr     4
Alge Crumpler         4
Antonio Gates         3
Chris Cooley          3
Vernon Davis          3
L.J. Smith            3
Desmond Clark         2
Tony Gonzalez         2
Matt Schobel          2
Jason Witten          2

An article on the Bills official website discusses Dick Jauron’s decision to go with a running back-by-committee (RBBC) approach this season.

Buffalo’s head coach has stated more than once to Buffalobills.com that he’s leaning toward a running back by committee approach this season. With all of the final four teams standing last season (New Orleans, Chicago, Indianapolis, New England) profiting greatly from a two-horse offensive backfield, Dick Jauron remains in favor of a group effort for 2007.

Apparently, this is what you get when you put an Ivy Leaguer in charge of a football team. While I applaud Jauron for recognizing a commonality among last year’s four top playoff teams, his decision to let that guide him is the epitome of not seeing the forest for the trees.

While it’s certainly true that all four teams in the championship rounds were RBBC a year ago, THREE OF THEM ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THAT POLICY THIS YEAR…

• Chicago — Thomas Jones is off to New York and the Bears run game is beholden to Cedric Benson
• Indianapolis — Dominic Rhodes is serving his suspension in Oakland, while 2nd year Joseph Addai gets a full workload in Indy
• New England — The Pats let Corey Dillon “retire” and will let Laurence Maroney carry the load

Dick, before you go ahead and convince yourself that Marshawn Lynch shouldn’t carry the rock A LOT, take a look at your model teams and realize that they too are going with a one-back situation this year.

Today fantasy owners and 49ers fans let out a collective gasp on the news that Frank Gore suffered a broken hand and will miss at least part of the preseason. Given Gore’s injury history, and the uncertainty of not seeing him practice over the next few weeks, a lot of fantasy owners may balk at selecting him in the top-5, where he’s currently ranked.

The savvy fantasy owner will recognize the silver lining to this injury. Of all the injuries that could befall an NFL runner, a broken bone at the top of his hand has to rank among the least concerning. Based on what we know currently, it seems to be limited to a broken bone, no ligament or tendon damage. If that’s indeed the case, there’s no reason his hand shouldn’t heal in a few weeks, nor should this be a chronic condition.

At the end of the day, this could serve two purposes:

1) Prevent a more significant injury — A lot of pundits contend the NFL preseason is too hard and too long. Gore, and his reconstructed knees now won’t be at risk during the next few week

2) Possibly lower his ADP — Gore is currently being drafted 4th overall according to our ADP data. Once this news ripples through the ‘net, you can bet that Gore will drop a few spots. Considering he should be A-OK for the start of the season, this would be fantastic news for anyone drafting in the second half of the 1st round.

We’ll continue to monitor this situation, but if the news remains as we currently understand it (broken bone only), Gore now has the chance to offer 1st round value whereas before, as a top-3 or top-4 pick, he would’ve merely represented fair value.

In an earlier blog post, I briefly touched on the trend toward interchangeable safeties taking hold in the NFL. With the increase in multiple wide receiver sets and athletic, pass-catching tight ends, defensive coordinators are scrambling to find safeties with two-way skills. The traditional, in-the-box safety is becoming a rarer find with each passing season. Big name safeties that struggle in coverage are finding themselves inactive or relegated to special teams duty on game days, as Adam Archuleta, Michael Lewis and Michael Boulware learned in 2006.

The New York Giants may make Gibril Wilson next on the list. Wilson, a fifth round pick in 2004, exploded onto the NFL landscape early in his rookie year after Shaun Williams suffered a season ending knee injury. Wilson played big in run support and had a knack for the big play, producing three sacks and three interceptions in parts of eight games as a rookie. Over the past three seasons, however, opposing teams have been able to take advantage of Wilson’s inconsistent play in coverage and there were rumblings this offseason that the Giant front office was souring on Wilson as a long term option at safety. Though they tendered Wilson with a second round compensation in RFA this year, there has been no mention of signing him to a long term extension.

So it wasn’t too shocking this weekend when the Giants opened camp with James Butler as the first team strong safety. Butler, a college free agent signee from 2005 who went undrafted despite an impressive collegiate resume, was impressive as a rookie but fell behind after a kidney problem cost him much of the 2006 offseason. The more interesting development is that Wilson was moved to FS, with last year’s starter Will Demps demoted to the second team.

There are a number of ways to look at this from Wilson’s perspective. First, it may be that this is the beginning of the end. Demps struggled early in 2006 as he got his legs back after a 2005 ACL injury, but had a very impressive second half in the boxscores. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Demps back in the starting lineup if he shows he can be consistently capable in run support and coverage. Or it may be that new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo sees Butler and Wilson as his Michael Lewis and Brian Dawkins. Wilson’s big play history parallels that of Dawkins in many ways and the move may be a sign that Wilson may have a similar key role in 2007.

For now, Wilson’s IDP owners should keep a close eye on the situation and hope that Wilson doesn’t follow in the footsteps of his 2006 NFC East counterparts, Archuleta and Lewis.

Today we heard the bad news that Bill Walsh lost his long battle with leukemia and has passed away. Take a look at his years with the 49ers and you’ll see that he was, above all, a winner. His teams were 92 - 59 - 1 (0.609 win %) in the regular season, and more importantly, 10-4 during post-season play. His teams won 3 Super Bowls (1981, 1984, 1988). My first memory of watching a pro football game is the 49ers 1981 victory over Cincinnati 26-21 - it was the last game I ever watched with my grandfather.

Walsh drafted and developed QB Joe Montana (a Hall of Fame player); drafted and developed WR Jerry Rice (a Hall of Fame player); he traded for and developed Steve Young (a Hall of Fame Player) as Montana’s eventual successor. He was a supremely astute judge of football talent, and knew how to bring out the very best in his players.

Of course, Walsh is also legendary for introducing the West Coast offense to the pros, and for the remarkable tree of coaches who either played for him or coached for him (and the legion of coaches now in the league that were disciples of his immediate heirs) - Mike Holmgren, George Seifert, Sam Wyche and many others were coaches for Walsh before they became head coaches themselves. Brian Billick was also heavily influenced by Walsh (they wrote Finding the Winning Edge together).

Bill Walsh was one of the greatest football coaches ever, in any era, and will be sorely missed by the game. Goodbye Mr. Walsh, we won’t forget you.

Every team has their share of coulda, shoulda, wouldas. Cleveland fans have The Fumble and The Drive. Raider fans are left to wonder about the Immaculate Reception, the Tuck Rule and Bo. Buffalo fans, well, let’s not dredge up those memories again. Bengal fans have their own painful memories. Pete Johnson stuffed on 4th and 1 or Lewis Billups dropping an interception in the end zone at crucial points in separate Super Bowls, Carson Palmer lying in a heap in a 2005 playoff game and any number of failed top draft picks. The passing of offensive innovator and former Bengal assistant coach Bill Walsh may have reminded long time Cincinnati homers of possibly the biggest what could’ve been in franchise history.

Everyone knows the Bill Walsh story. Primary architect of one variation of the West Coast offense, three time Super Bowl winning head coach of the San Francisco 49ers and widely considered among the most innovative coaches of all time. Casual football fans may not know the rest of the story. Walsh got his start in the NFL as an assistant with the Oakland Raiders but made his name as an assistant offensive coach in Cincinnati after joining Paul Brown’s staff in 1968. Walsh brought the vertical passing game of another of the game’s offensive architects, Sid Gillman, to Cincinnati and soon had the perfect quarterback to run his playbook, Greg Cook.

Who the heck is Greg Cook you ask? As a rookie in 1969 in Walsh’s vertical offense, Cook rode his freakish combination of arm strength, touch and deep accuracy to an amazing 17.5 yards per completed pass. Put in perspective, Daunte Culpepper averaged 12.4 yards per completion in his historic 2004, Peyton Manning 13.6. Some of the best deep receiving threats in the league today fall short of that number. Unfortunately, Cook, the 1969 AFL Rookie of the Year blew out his shoulder in third game of the year. Although he finished the year, Cook was never the same and attempted only three more passes after the 1969 season — four seasons later.

In later interviews, Walsh still lamented what could have been with Cook. In fact, Walsh himself wonders if he would’ve created the West Coast offense if Cook had stayed healthy and fulfilled his promise. Paul Zimmerman asked Walsh how things would’ve been different if he had Cook for more than one season. Things would have been “completely different,” Walsh said. “It would’ve started off the deep strike and everything else would’ve played off that. It would’ve set records that would have never been broken.” This from the man who coached Joe Montana and Jerry Rice.

Unfortunately for Bengal fans, that’s only half the story.

Although Walsh’s version of the vertical offense could have been sick with Greg Cook and Isaac Curtis, the innovator found a way to modify his passing attack with short, precise passes and mulitple wide receiving options putting pressure on the defense with timing routes — what is now known as the West Coast offense but could rightly be called the Cincinnati offense. Walsh again found a near perfect fit for his new playbook in Ken Anderson, a smart, calm, precise passer. Walsh’s offense was clicking for the Bengals in the early 1970s. By the end of the 1975 season, Anderson was running the offense to perfection with a 60% plus completion rate and 8 yards plus per passing attempt. Curtis had been to three consecutive Pro Bowls and was a star. The Bengals had made the playoffs in 1973 and 1975. The future was ridiculously bright.

Then Bengal head coach and patriarch Paul Brown retired and handed the reins to long time offensive assistant Tiger Johnson instead of Walsh, who resigned in disappointment. The rest, as they say, is history. Walsh spent a season in San Diego as an assistant and coached Stanford for two seasons before taking the head coaching job in San Francisco where his offense flourished under Joe Montana. Johnson’s Bengal teams steadily declined and he was fired in 1978. Cincinnati made two Super Bowls in the 1980s, only to lose both to the franchise Bill Walsh built.

Rest in peace, Bill Walsh. This Bengal fan still longs for what could’ve been.

There has been much discussion on the FBG message board about how the loss of WR Chris Henry will affect the fantasy stats of QB Carson Palmer this year. Henry, suspended for the first eight games of the season under the NFL’s new personal conduct policy, challenged Brandon Stokely for “Most Frequently Rostered NFL WR3″ on fantasy rosters in recent seasons after consistently providing Palmer with a legitimate downfield threat and red zone option. How can the Bengals possibly replace Henry’s 2006 contributions of 16.8 ypr and 9 touchdowns?

Consider third year WR Tab Perry. Most observers have seen Chris Henry’s freakish combination of size, strength and speed enable him to exploit mismatches against the opposition’s third or fourth corner. Because Tab Perry isn’t a household name, many observers and fantasy owners may not realize how similar Perry is to Henry. Perry may not be as long or lanky as Henry, but he is a solid 6′3″, 220 pounds and, as demonstrated by his special teams play and his being recruited to play safety in college, does not shy away from physical contact. Few know that Perry had a better 40 time at the 2005 combine than Henry, 4.36 to 4.40. Although Perry doesn’t have the elite body control and ability to snatch the ball at its highest point that Henry has, Perry’s skill set compares favorably to Henry’s as a third down/red zone option.

Even while Henry was active last year, Palmer was growing comfortable with Perry as an option during critical game situations. Before suffering a severe hip injury in Week 2, Perry was on his way to becoming a trusted third down option. Three of his five receptions last year converted a third down into a first down for the Bengals, at an average of 20 yards per catch.

By all accounts, Perry’s hip is fully healed and sound for contact. With Antonio Chatman already struggling with a hamstring injury in camp, Perry has only to beat out former track star Bennie Brazell (another player with freakish measurables worth watching), Glenn Holt and Reggie McNeal to win the 3rd WR role while Henry is out. If Perry can return to his early 2007 form, it isn’t out of the question that he may find such a comfort level with Palmer that he continues to get the call in clutch situations when Henry returns.

Those in deep leagues or survivor leagues take note, Tab Perry might save you in a pinch during bye weeks over the first half of this season. As of July 26th, Perry carried an ADP of 300 as the 100th WR off the board, behind such luminaries as Mewelde Moore, Laurent Robinson and JJ Arrington. While he is not a good bet to rack up mulitple receptions every week or approach Henry’s 15 TD in 27 games pace, Perry is a mortal lock to obliterate that ADP. Given his competition in camp, he’s one of the safest flyer picks available at the end of your draft.

Regardless of how you personally feel about players breaking contracts…

Let’s look at this from Larry’s perspective:

• He has outplayed his rookie deal by a wide margin
• He is considered the 2nd best RB in the game behind only LaDainian Tomlinson
• KC is offering way below market value going forward on any restructure
• Carl Peterson has done this countless times with his best players (Holmes, Gonzalez come to mind) and these deals usually got done because the players wanted to stay.  I don’t think Johnson wants to stay.
• He will get his money from someone eventually if he doesn’t sign a deal with KC and shows up week 10 to put his year in
• KC could franchise him next year, but that is likely a bluff. Owners don’t like to franchise players they don’t want around. KC could do it, but this would likely just buy time while they openly shop LJ to get picks and players.
• Any new 4-5 year contract will likely be Larry’s last as he is 27 years old now.
• Any fines/lost money this year will more than be made up with a new deal next year (See Deion Branch situation)
• Salaries are skyrocketing as the league gains popularity
• Carl Peterson is saying LJ isn’t worth LaDainian Tomlinson money despite LT’s contract happening two years ago.  New contracts are always worth more.  So if LJ gets LT money, that actually is less.
• KC will likely be a subpar team over his next contract

So Larry has one big payday coming. Why would anyone in Johnson’s shoes take any lowball offer KC is offering? They want LJ, but they want him for 50 cents on the dollar. I am beginning to think we will see LJ for only 6 games this year (He will show up week 10 to fulfill the contract) and then he will be traded to a team that will pay him what he believes he is worth.  Fantasy owners should be very wary of choosing him with an early first round pick at this time.

Here’s a recap of what’s been happening at Footballguys.com over the last week (July 22-July 28):

We’re used to putting out a ton of quality content, but I think you’ll agree that we’ve outdone ourselves this week. Sixty-one (61) new articles, plus a few hours of quality podcasting, not to mention updated versions of all our most popular tools, real-time rankings, depth charts, projections and cheatsheets.

New versions of our ever popular fantasy tools:

• Customized Cheatsheets (159 and counting)
• Draft Dominator 8.0f Released
• Projections Dominator 2.0f Released
• Updated Offensive Projections
• Updated IDP Projections

Eighteen (18) New Player Spotlights:

• QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots - 7/22
• QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins - 7/22
• QB Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears - 7/22
• QB Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals - 7/22
• QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - 7/22
• RB Chris Brown, Tennessee Titans - 7/22
• RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers - 7/22
• RB Chris Henry, Tennessee Titans - 7/22
• RB Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots - 7/22
• RB Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins - 7/22
• RB LenDale White, Tennessee Titans - 7/22
• WR Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears - 7/22
• WR Terry Glenn, Dallas Cowboys - 7/22
• WR Devery Henderson, New Orleans Saints - 7/22
• WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - 7/22
• WR Javon Walker, Denver Broncos - 7/22
• TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers - 7/22
• TE Ben Watson, New England Patriots - 7/22

Nine (9) New Faceoffs:

• QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos - 7/25
• WR Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers - 7/25
• QB Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers - 7/27
• TE Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams - 7/27
• RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - 7/25
• WR Jerry Porter, Oakland Raiders - 7/25
• WR Javon Walker, Denver Broncos - 7/25
• RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles - 7/27
• RB Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Bucs - 7/25

Eight (8) Training Camp Preview Articles:

• NFC West - Wood - 7/22
• NFC East - Wood - 7/22
• NFC South - Wood - 7/22
• NFC North - Wood - 7/22
• AFC West - Wood - 7/22
• AFC East - Wood - 7/22
• AFC South - Wood - 7/22
• AFC North - Wood - 7/22

Twenty-Three (23) New Strategy Articles:

• Big Picture Version 2 - Herman - 7/27
• Deception: Gray’s Bogus 200 - 7/27 (FREE)
• Herman’s WR Matrix - Herman - 7/27
• Can Green help Chambers - Haseley - 7/27
• Reading the Defense - Bremel - 7/27
• Rebuilding: Trade Dynamics - Borbely - 7/27
• Preseason Eyes of the Guru (AFC) - Norton - 7/25
• Buy Low/Sell High (RBs) - Bloom - 7/25
• QB Consistency Scores - Dodds - 7/25
• RB Consistency Scores - Dodds - 7/25
• WR Consistency Scores - Dodds - 7/25
• TE Consistency Scores - Dodds - 7/25
• Breaking Down Draft Slot 1 - Smith - 7/25
• Breaking Down Draft Slot 2 - Smith - 7/25
• Breaking Down Draft Slots 3/4 - Smith - 7/25
• 3rd Round Reversal (12 Teams) - Pasquino - 7/25
• 3rd Round Reversal (14 Teams) - Pasquino - 7/25
• 3rd Round Reversal (16 Teams) - Pasquino - 7/25
• Tier 1 Defenses - Howerton - 7/25
• Tier 2 Defenses - Howerton - 7/25
• Tier 3 Defenses - Howerton - 7/25
• Tier 4 Defenses - Howerton - 7/25
• Bloom 100 Part 3 - Bloom - 7/22

Three (3) Interview Transcriptions:

• Interview: Mike Garafolo (Giants) - 7/25
• Interview: Pete Dougherty, GB Press Gazette (Packers) - 7/25
• Interview: Kevin Lynch, SF Chronicle (49ers) - 7/25

Eight (8) Episodes of The Audible:

• 2007 Volume#135a - Footballguys News And Notes - 7/27/2007 (#227)
• 2007 Volume#134a - Steve Reed (CAR) interview, Panthers beat writer from the Gaston Gazette (#226)
• 2007 Volume#133a - NFCE QBs Preseason Watch List (#225)
• 2007 Volume#133b - NFCE RBs Preseason Watch List (#225)
• 2007 Volume#133c - NFCE WRs Preseason Watch List (#225)
• 2007 Volume#132a - AFCE QBs Preseason Watch List (#224)
• 2007 Volume#132b - AFCE RBs Preseason Watch List (#224)
• 2007 Volume#132c - AFCE WRs Preseason Watch List (#224)

Have a great week, we’ve got to get back to work.

Donald Driver failed his physical exam Friday morning because:

He couldn’t keep his right arm extended when a team doctor applied pressure. He’ll receive treatment and hopes to be cleared for practice in the next day or two.

Many fantasy owners are starting to worry. Should they? Driver is currently being drafted as WR16 and player 42 overall. He is great value in the 4th round.

We should not worry about Driver. The same article had this to say:

Driver, who led the Packers with 92 receptions for 1,295 yards and eight touchdowns in 2006 on the way to his second Pro Bowl, focused on adding strength in the offseason and said the shoulder never hindered him in the weight room. He said he weighed in Friday at 194 pounds, 4 pounds heavier than he’s listed.

Coach Mike McCarthy said Driver is day to day.

”I’m not concerned, because I think like all of us know that Donald keeps himself in excellent shape all year round,” McCarthy said. ”This is something that bothered him coming into camp, so we’re just being cautious him.”

Let others avoid Driver this season . The savvy fantasy owners will take advantage. Driver is a top receiver as long as Favre is the quarterback … maybe longer.

2007 Volume#135a - Footballguys News And Notes - 7/27/2007 (#227)
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Joe Bryant review todays top fantasy football stories. Topics include: Michael Vicks bleak outlook, Warrick Dunns injury and what it means for Jerious Norwood, the Priest Holmes situation, Eric Moulds has a new team, Tatum Bell , plus more!

---

2007 Volume#134a - Interview With Steve Reed, Panthers beat writer from the Gaston Gazette (#226)
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom discuss the Carolina Panthers with Special Guest Steve Reed, Panthers beat writer from the Gaston Gazette. Topics include: how good can DeAngelo Williams be, should Jake Delhomme be looking over his shoulder, who wins the #2 WR job opposite of Steve Smith, a review of the battle at the CB position, plus more!

On the day that Curtis Martin retired, the news that Cedric Houston will no longer be a New York Jet was the big story in Jetsland. It looks like a done deal.

What does this mean for fantasy football? The Jets will rely on veteran Thomas Jones, and promising young Leon Washington, more than expected. Jones was brought in to be the workhorse and the loss of Houston means Jones’ owners do not have to worry about a TD vulture. Washington is the guy to watch. He flashed potential in 2006 as a rookie. It will be interesting to see how he is used. The only other RBs on the Jets depth chart are Danny Ware and Alvin Banks. So, unless a veteran back is signed, Jones and Washington are the only viable ball carriers on the roster.

The loss of Houston should slightly raise Jones in the rankings of fantasy owners. Jones will be a solid, serviceable RB2 for fantasy teams. But, the back that benefits the most is Leon Washington. The loss of Houston might mean three or four more touches per game for Washington. He could get close to 200 touches in 2007, without predicting injury to Jones. That would make Leon a decent lineup replacement for bye weeks or injury. Raise Washington and Jones in your rankings. These two backs, especially with the Houston departure, are now backs that scream value in many leagues. Thomas Jones has an ADP of RB19 or player 28 overall. Washington has an ADP of RB47 and player 139 overall. With those prices, drafting Jones as a cheap RB2 in 3rd round and Washington in the 12th round as a handcuff is a good strategy. If not, each on their own is easily worth the draft pick spent.

Yesterday, Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride spoke glowingly about RB Brandon Jacobs:

You start with Brandon (Jacobs) as the guy with Rueben (Droughns) competing for as much playing time as he can get and Brandon trying to hold off and trying to get as much as he can hold on to. But, I mean, there are other guys there too. Derrick Ward, is a young guy that we are anxious to see what he can do. Again, as Tom (Coughlin) talked about, there is some interesting competition at certain positions and it is probably not proper for me to say that I think this guy is going to start.  But right now you got to say that Brandon is the guy we feel confident in to be the running back to carry the ball 20-25 times a game, but we will let it all play out.

This kind of public affirmation certainly bodes well for Brandon Jacobs’ opportunity this year. He’s got mountainous shoes to fill and, frankly, it’s unreasonable and illogical to expect Jacobs to approximate Tiki Barber’s level of production. That said, the Giants appear ready and willing to make Jacobs’ the new workhorse. Fantasy success = Ability + Opportunity; and it seems that Jacobs will have plenty of the latter.

But just because Jacobs is in line to start doesn’t mean you should expect “20 to 25 carries.” Offensive coaches LOVE to throw that mantra out, yet, you would think one day a budding young assistant coach might show them that the odds are HIGHLY against it.

• 20 carries x 16 games = 320 carries
• 25 carries x 16 games = 400 carries

First of all, let’s dismiss the possibility of 400 carries right now. Only five running backs in NFL HISTORY have rushed 400+ times in a season:

1. Larry Johnson (2006):  416 carries
2. Jamal Anderson (1998: 410 carries
3. James Wilder (1984): 407 carries
4. Eric Dickerson (1986): 404 carries
5. Eddie George (2000): 403 carries

But what about 320 carries, isn’t that possible? Possible? YES. Likely? NO.

As I discussed previously, on average only 7 running backs tally 320+ carries per season. And situationally, Jacobs seems ill-suited to finish among them, for the following reasons:

• The Giants Defense — A 25th ranked finish last season combined with questions at linebacker and in the secondary, not to mention a possible holdout by DE Michael Strahan make it unlikely the Giants defense will be stout enough to allow the Giants to play conservative ball-control offense.
• The Run/Pass Ratio – In Coughlin’s three seasons as head coach, the Giants have thrown the ball 54% of the time, running it 46%. They have averaged 449 rushing attempts as a team. Those aren’t the types of numbers that produce 20+ carry rushers unless they lack a quality back, such as…
• Reuben Droughns — Droughns is a proven veteran with a pair of 1,200-yard seasons under his belt. Expect him to be used a few series per game, so he can find his rhythm. He’s not the kind of backup that warrants less than 10 touches a game.

Brandon Jacobs is an interesting fantasy prospect with solid upside. He’s currently being drafted 22nd among RBs, which could be compelling value if he can generate double-digit rushing TDs and 1,200+ rushing yards; which are well within his grasp. But don’t get caught up in coach speak and start dreaming of 1,600+ yards rushing. It’s not likely.

Earlier this week, Doug Drinen posted some statistical analysis on rookie wide receivers that’s worth a read. As you know, rookie wideouts have made their presence felt the last few years, ranging from Anquan Boldin to Michael Clayton to Marques Colston.

This season, there are some intriguing rookies to watch including: Calvin Johnson (DET), Dwayne Bowe (KC), Craig Davis (SD), Robert Meachem (NO) and Dwayne Jarrett (CAR).

But today I want to turn your attention to a less-hyped rookie wide receiver that may be in a better position than most of those guys: Steve Smith of the New York Giants.

Smith went for 1,083 yards and 9 TDs in his final season at USC and is the total package. A former sprinter, he has 4.4 speed but also brings precise route-running and glue-like hands to the field.

But lots of rookie receivers have storied pedigrees. Here’s why I’m beginning to think he’s a FANTASTIC deep sleeper:

1) Amani Toomer is coming off a torn ACL and is going to be limited in camp according to head coach Tom Coughlin.

Toomer, we are going to have to see exactly where he is. He is coming off of an ACL. He has made good progress. I saw him the other day. He is scheduled to go once a day and I hope it is a full-fledged one, but I think we are going to have to work our way into that. We would not just throw him out there and let him go.

2) Plaxico Burress is coming off ankle surgery four months ago and also will be limited in camp.

With both Burress and Toomer limited at the start of camp, Smith is going to get a lot of reps with the first team and, most importantly, QB Eli Manning. If you believe, as I do, that Smith is one of the more polished rookie receivers it’s hard to imagine that he won’t benefit from the playing time and chance to show the coaches what he can do.

Given his current ADP (WR72), you can roster Smith very late in your draft and you may end up with a starter and, possibly, this year’s Marques Colston.

Marc Bulger signed a new six-year, $62.5 million contract today and any fears that he would stage a training camp holdout are null and void. Bulger gets $26.5mm in guarantees and will look to build on what’s turning into an impressive NFL career.

Bulger is coming off his best season (4,301 yards passing, 24 TDs, 8 INTs); which not coincidentally was his first under new coach Scott Linehan. Bulger has been a top-10 fantasy passer in three of the last four seasons, and was well on his way in 2005 before injuries cut his season in half. Always an accurate passer (64.4% career completion), Bulger has improved his decision-making. Witness his INT totals over the last four seasons (22 to 14 to 9 to 8).

We currently rank Bulger as the 5th-best fantasy QB and 44th overall.

Tangentially, Bulger’s on-time camp appearance will benefit TE Randy McMichael and WR Drew Bennett, who need time to acclimate themselves to their new quarterback. Obviously RB Steven Jackson and WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are already known fantasy commodities, so Bulger’s camp holdout wasn’t going to hurt them as much.

Last night, we conducted our first of several planned drafts in conjunction with the site. They will be released in full detail in the coming weeks along with detailed analysis and commentary from each of the participants. For now, I just wanted to share some broader reactions to the events that unfolded last night in our ever popular Survivor Draft:

What is a Survivor Draft?

There are two primary differences between a Survivor-style draft and a typical fantasy redraft league. One, there are no transactions after the draft. The team you draft is the team you get. Yes, that means if Larry Johnson breaks his leg in a few weeks, that team who rostered him is a man down, with no hope of replacing his production. Two, you don’t compete head-to-head but rather the goal is to avoid being the lowest-scoring team in a given week. If you are the lowest scoring team, you get eliminated (hence, SURVIVOR). Here are the draft particulars for our league:

• 12 teams, 24 rounds, Serpentine
• Performance Scoring:
  • 1 point per 10 yards rush/rec
  • 1 point per 20 yards passing
  • 4 points per pass TD
  • 6 points per rush/rec TD
  • -1 per INT
  • 1 point per reception
  • Kickers = 3 points per FG plus 0.1 per yard beyond
  • Defense = 1 point per sack, 2 pts per INT/FumRec/Safety, bonuses for points allowed but not yard
• Survivor Style:
  • Rosters are fixed (no free agency, no trading…this team is what you have for the entire season)
  • You don’t set lineups
    • Your top scoring QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (TE/WR/RB), 1 Def, 1 Kicker count
    • Low score each week (1-4) gets eliminated, bi-weekly eliminations through week 12
    • Immunity to high score in weeks 1-4 for the following week

Drafting in a Survivor league is a ton of fun because the strategy you have to employ differs greatly from traditional redrafts.

1. Bye weeks become a major factor — In a redraft, bye weeks are an afterthought because you’re not going to pass up a better player in most cases simply because he may have the same bye week as another player on your roster. But in Survivor, with elimination being a possibility virtually every week, you can’t find yourself down two or three solid players in any given week without really putting yourself at risk.
2. No transactions = Risk aversion — In a redraft league, it might make some sense to roll the dice on Kevin Jones or Warrick Dunn or Kellen Winslow or Donovan McNabb; because you can always waive them or acquire someone via trade if they don’t recover from injury. But in Survivor format, players with question marks fall at least a few rounds lower than ADP; and some don’t get drafted at all.
3. Positional considerations can separate the wheat from the chaff — With 24 roster spots, you may think you’re well covered against any contingencies. But the truth is, every roster spot counts because injuries (and byes) will leave you critically short on contributors a few weeks a season, it’s inevitable. Going into a Survivor, you have to decide whether you’re going to grab that extra tight end or, instead, take another QB. It sounds easy, but each position you allocate some extra depth toward means you are taking depth away from others.
4. Handcuffing can make or break you – A lot of Survivor participants like to handcuff players to effectively lock up productivity. For example, if you draft Marc Bulger you may seriously consider taking Gus Frerotte late in the draft; knowing that you will end up having the Rams QB locked up. But not all handcuffs are created equal. What happens if you draft Jerious Norwood and Warrick Dunn only to see the Falcons sign Corey Dillon in free agency?

Next up: A few tidbits from the actual draft results…

We each have our own list of tiebreakers for situations where we just can’t decide between two players. After you’ve weighed all the evidence over and over again and you simply can’t find a reason to favor one player over another, there has to be one very minor factor you use to tip the scales.

I’d like to consider one more such factor, which might be particularly relevant in very active leagues where you’ll be making lots of trades throughout the season: when you absolutely can’t make up your mind, pick the guy with the later bye week.

Why? Because, if you play your trades right, you can often avoid bye weeks altogether by trading a player who hasn’t yet had his bye for one who has. To make it more concrete, let’s take two receivers who are being valued just about the same right now, say Laveranues Coles and Santana Moss. Coles has a week 10 bye and Moss is off in week 4. So you draft Coles.

Now let’s say it’s week 6 and you’re working on a blockbuster trade involving some other players. It’s often very easy to throw into that deal a WR-for-WR swap. In this case, you’d offer to give up Coles and get Moss (or some other receiver who has already had his bye, and has value similar to Coles at the time) in return. You might be surprised by how often the other owner will forget to consider Coles’ future bye when valuing the two players. Additionally, if the other owner goes to the league’s default WR rankings page he will often see the receivers ranked by total points, which will make Coles, who will have played one more game at that point, look better relative to the other receiver.

Is this a guaranteed strategy for winning your league? No. Heck, it’s a guaranteed strategy for losing your league if you get too crazy with it, so please don’t go around telling people I told you to draft Matt Schaub (bye week 10) over Drew Brees (4). But it’s the kind of strategy that might add a little bit of fun to your season, and can pay off in certain types of leagues.